WA election guide unlocked

with labor having so many seats they cant possibly hope to defend them all or even most of the marginals it would simply spread their resources too thin and open them up to a potential loss elsewhere where they least expect it

70/30 2pp means a long way to go
The libs and nats cannot recover in one election.
Will they go back to 2017 result
?unknown
I suspect a lot of the country seats Labor holds will be kept

@mick they will lose most of their regional seats with the exception on bunbury collie mandurah Kimberley and likely pilbara. Albany and Murray-welllington will be tossups. albany only because o the controvesial candidate. likely go back to somewhere between 2017 and 2021. never say never but its doubtful they can overturn that majority in one term. Cook isnt Campbell Newman but neither is he Mark McGowan

Libs lab and grns all have candidates in all 59 seats

Labor have reportedly written off seats like nedlands. Carine and church lands and expect o lose Warren Blackwood and Kalamunda which is of particular concern since that seat is part of Bullwinkel and if they can’t win that sweat then there hopes in Bullwinkel do down drastically. Also nervous about Kingsley Scarborough south Perth Albany Geraldton and Kalgoorlie. Source Sunday times courtesy of pollbludger. All these seats I’m giving to the Libs the only one I have concerns is Albany due to the comments made by the candidate over homosexuality. I think this may help the nats and labor somewhat. I suspect it may be a narrow labor retain on grn preferences and I think it it may be vs the nats. The liberal candidate will still be listed as such in Kimberley but it won’t matter they won’t win and neither will the nats though the Nats may make the 2cp for the first time since 1936. Libs haven’t won this since 1977 amd nats since 1924 when they were the country party.. I suspect they might have their chances in 2029 after the next redistribution further expands Kimberley.

newspoll today reports 57.5-42.5. and increase of 1.5% to labor since the last poll.

I’m gonna go ahead and call the election for Labor. I’d say around 37 seats.

Kalamunda 14%
Thornlie. 35% alp margin
Forrestfield 25%
The first 3 make up greater than 90% in
Bullwinkel
Darling range 14% 27% Bullwinkel
Central wheat belt assume splits 60/40
Of this 50% in Bullwinkel
But this is the slightly better half say 55/45 against Labor
On state figures i expect Labor to win Bullwinkel
Labor does not need to win Kalamunda to win Bullwinkel just break even or slightly worse will do the job
Taking out Avon Valley figures 2022
Labor polled 47% of the vote and lost by 600 votes.
A swing against Labor here would be indicative…. but you could not write odd
Bullwinkel with its 3% alp margin.
All things being equal if Labor were to win the 2 Northam booths and prepolll
( NORTHAM) they would be well placed for Bullwinkel

Mick/John, I probably see Labor winning at least 40 seats at the election with the potential to reach up to 45 seats (net loss of 15-20 seats overall).

Kalamunda should be an easy Liberal gain being an open seat, with a margin probably around 10% or so. Thornlie and Forrestfield should be more comfortable holds for Labor, but will still see 10%+ swings (I see the margin for Forrestfield dropping below 10%, and Thornlie to go below 20%).

Other easy Liberal or National gains would be most of the remote seats (except Pilbara and Kimberley, with Pilbara being a close contest similar to 2017)

Pls see my prev post under Cockburn
Predict alp loses 13 seats….. maybe
1 to 2 teals win.

Just on that bit of polling – is it affected at all by early voting? The fieldwork was done at a time when most likely a majority of people had not yet voted but would anyone who has already voted bother to take the poll or be disqualified?

6 News hosts appear to be biased towards Labor. They’re all predicting the Liberals to get no more than 12 seats, with one predicting the Liberals and Nationals to both have the same number of seats.

While there’s absolutely no doubt that Labor will win the election, they will lose 15 or 20 seats. I’m thinking they might hold on in a lot of Perth seats except the blue ribbon ones but then lose seats outside of Perth, maybe even Pilbara (and Kimberley might be close too).

Agree NP, of all Labor held seats outside Perth I expect only two to be non-marginal after this election (Kimberley and Collie-Preston, both having margins under 10%). Labor could retain Pilbara, Murray-Wellington and Albany but I expect the others will/should be easy gains for the Liberals or Nationals.

Nether Portal,
I suspect that the 6 News host may be biased towards reality, rather than Labor.

12 seats for libs would be about the line. With nats I’d expect to get at least 6. That’s 18 and labor on 41. That’d be about the worst possible outcome for the libs/nats. Labor will win Kimberley. Pilbara likely narrow labor retain though possible Nat gain. Albany will be a lab retain or possible Nat upset. Libs would have won this if not for dumb candidate. Labor will likely hold Bunbury as well. (I feel for my friends and family having to spend another 4 years under labor there.)

I really need to check whether I’ve posted my predictions on both PollBludger and here, I’ve basically locked down my predictions for this election yesterday. I’m expecting a 14-16% swing towards the Coalition and Labor to retain around 40 seats at minimum. I’ve made the prediction slightly better for Labor to account for yesterday’s polling.

Post redistribution seat count sees ALP at 54 seats (+ Oakfield), LIB at 2 seats and NATs at 3 seats (Mid West is counted here)

SEAT COUNT (AFTER ELECTION)-
ALP- 42 (-12)
LIB- 11 (+9)
NAT- 6 (+3)

SEAT CHANGES-
– Nedlands, Churchlands, Carine, Scarborough, South Perth, Bateman, Dawesville, Kalamunda, Kalgoorlie flip to LIB from ALP
– Warren-Blackwood, Geraldton, Albany flip to NAT from ALP
– Mid-West gain for NAT

SEATS TO WATCH: This section was long in PollBludger so I’ll cut this down to key seats to watch so I won’t take up too much space
– Riverton
– Bicton
– Murray-Wellington
– Collie Preston
– Darling Range

I’m giving Riverton to the libs and bicton Murray-Wellington and darling range line ball. Collie will be a problem going forward as the closing of the coal plant will hurt the labor vote. The redistribution could be interesting too . Libs/Nats to win the 2029 wa election.

Albany might be a labor retain just though. Nats will be competitive in Pilbara and probably win it in 2029

Doubt Kalamundra will swing 25% odd
Labor may lose this seat nit not that badly

Assuming a 12% swing (due to recent polling), reading down the pendulum:

Churchlands, Nedlands, Carine, Bateman, South Perth: absolute must-wins for the Libs. No excuses.

Warren-Blackwood: near-certain Labor loss, but the Libs might grab it instead of the Nats.

Scarborough and Riverton are winnable for Labor if their statewide 2pp is 55% or better, especially with a sophomore swing. Labor hold for me.

Albany, Geraldton and Kalgoorlie are all regional seats below the expected swing. Albany is probably safe for Labor thanks to the terrible Lib candidate, the other two are coin-flips. Labor could get home in Kalgoorlie with <40% due to the fractured right-wing vote. Geraldton is hard to read because the last MP was a Lib who defected to the Nats.

Slightly above the swing, Kalamunda looks like a Lib gain due to a retiring Labor MP.

All up that's a seat count for Labor in the mid-40s. Where the rest go depends on (a) how the Nats do in the country (with no regional polling, that's a bit of a black box) and (b) if indies swipe any blue-blood seats in the western suburbs. The low end for the Libs is still less seats than the Nats.

To make up for some marginal seats swinging less than the state average, there'll be swings over 20% in traditionally marginal seats like Wanneroo and Southern River. Libs won't win many, but it'll make the margins more realistic for 2029.

With only a 14.3% margin and no incumbent should be an easy win for the libs.

Labor against Ken Wyatt a very good candidate narrowly won .Kalamunda booths.

That was 2022. Mick and a federal election. No McGowan no COVID no scomo. Now.

Bird labor will lose Kalgoorlie. The centre right vote will be too strong. Geraldton will be lost as well. Albany likely a marginal retain but nats could upset. Won’t hold it at next election.

My prediction:
LIB Gains: Albany, Bateman, Carine, Churchlands, Darling Range, Dawesville, Kalamunda, Kalgoorlie, Murray-Wellington, Nedlands, Riverton, Scarborough, South Perth
NAT Gains: Geraldton, Mid-West (notional hold), Warren-Blackwood

Lineball but Labor-leaning: Bicton, Fremantle, Hillarys, Jandakot, Kingsley, Landsdale, Maylands

Seat Count:
ALP: 39 (-15)
LIB: 15 (+13)
NAT: 5 (+2)

A less than convincing win for Cook will spell trouble for Albo. A loss and Albo is toast. But that probably won’t happen. Get ready for opposition leader Basil Zempalis in a few eeeks.

James libs aren’t winning Albany not unless it’s full of homophobic anti abortionists. Libs could be in play for Warren Blackwood and Midwest but labor would need to fall out of the 2cp. I’d add Bassandean to the line ball if the Ind gets into the 2cp but other then that pretty good asses ent

Basil will lose to a teal..
.libs dodge a bullet.
Alp lose approx 13 seats..if last couple of polls are correct maybe do as well as
10
..

Jandakot might also be in play. Until 2017 it was liberal held until 2017 and the sitting member has moved to the new seat of Oakford.

Basil won’t lose.

I’m thinking a seat total into the 40s for Labor thanks to them holding onto a good chunk of the 2021 urban gains. Lots of sophomore MPs whom can probably retain their seats with a swing of around 10%. Scarborough and South Perth might be closer than expected or even surprise Labor retain.

On the other hand, McGowan’s government outperformed with rural/regional voters quite considerably so I’m thinking the correction will be stronger there. I don’t think Geraldton and Kalgoorlie will stay with Labor even with an expected boost to their vote with the second term MPs. I’d say the same for Albany but perhaps the Liberals shoot themselves in the foot with their candidate there.

My final count where I’m more or less guessing where my tossups land gets me:

ALP- 43
LIB- 10
NAT- 6

I can’t see labor finishing with any more than 40. Maybe 41. Libs should win Kalgoorlie. Geraldton will probably be a liberal gain too but maybe Nat. Labor can’t win either in my opinion. Libs should have won Albany but they are their own undoing. Nats a chance at an upset though.

It’s easy to see Labor finishing with more than 40 if you go by the polling. Just a uniform swing for a 12-13% swing (ie. 57% 2PP) nets 11 seats lost from a starting 54 seats, leaving 43. And then consider that personal vote effects are likely to benefit Labor, with a number of seats around the 10-15% range, and there is probably more upside than downside to that number.

Yea but some seats will swing harder like Kalamunda with no incumbent.