A state by-election will need to be held in early 2025 for the western Melbourne seat of Werribee. This by-election was triggered by the retirement yesterday of Tim Pallas, a long-serving Labor minister who has served as Treasurer since 2014.
Werribee lies on the western fringe of Melbourne and has always been a Labor seat. But this is the kind of seat that could flip at a by-election. We’ll have to see how the campaign plays out.
I’ve published my Werribee by-election guide here.
The inner eastern seat of Prahran is due to hold its by-election on February 8, and it’s possible Werribee could be held on the same day.
Werribee was (believe it or not) won by the Liberals in 1976, the high-water mark of Dick Hamer’s government.
They also came close in 1996 to win the seat.
1976 was a time when seats like Dandenong were mortgage belt marginals.
I would not compare Dandenong to Werribee today. Werribee still has growth areas while Dandenong has a lot of renters. refugees etc
Definitely not today, but it’s true before Dandenong solidified for Labor after 1976 due to industry growth etc.
Agree Ian
Dandenong solidified for Labor has there was more manufactuinng relocated nearby. The growth of Middle Class suburbs nearby like Rowville meant the middle class left Dandenong, Wars in countries like Sri Lanka, Sudan and Afghanistan brought refugees and changed it to a Labor stronghold. I think maybe the two Narre Warren seats are undergoing the same process. For example Hallam and Hampton Park has many poor refugees and factories nearby so those two suburbs effectively swamp the marginal results elsewhere.
That’s pretty much it.
Probable Labor hold but I’d expect a swing to the Liberals. Same as Prahran which will be a Greens hold but will likely swing to the Liberals.