The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
Easy lib gain retain.
My tips (as of 26 Feb and subject to change) for indies and Minors. Clockwise round the country:
Kennedy – Katter retain but definitely past ‘best before’ if not ‘use by’.
Brisbane – Labor gain
Griffith – Greens hold
Ryan – LNP might just get home
Mackellar – Talked of as Lib gain but hard to see. Ind hold.
Warringah – Ind hold
Wentworth – Ind hold
Fowler – Ind hold
Calare – not sure – count could be wild. Gee or Nats.
Kooyong – Lib win.
Goldstein – Ind hold. Just can’t see Zoe Daniel losing.
Melbourne – Green hold
Monash – Broadbent loses to Libs
Indi – Ind hold
Clark – Ind hold
Mayo – Ind hold
Curtin – Toss up. Kate Chaney is horse for the
course. Just can’t see her losing. But that is Eastern state point of view.
Richmond – Greens v good chance
Bradfield – Lib hold
Wills – Greens win
Macnamara – Labor loss to Greens but Libs might just squeak in.
Wannon – Can’t see it happening
Franklin – One to watch. Will depends on Greens preferences.
Grayndler – not at election but afterwards if Labor lose and Albo walks away.
Did I miss anywhere?
@Redistributed
Aston, Deakin and Menzies Labor has been putting in a lot of effort. For Aston they have a paid field officer and they have regular door knocks. These 3 seats all appear to be close and who ever wins each won’t win them by a large margin, definitely worth watching all 3 seats on the eastern side of the Yarra.
SpaceFish
I live in Deakin and Menzies is at the end of my street. Not a whisper from Labor at all in either seat. Not a corflute – not an ad – nothing, nada, zip. Not saying they won’t be close but Labor didn’t even candidates in Menzies abd Deakin until December. Aston, I understand trying to sandbag. Was it you that said Labor were campaigning hard the day after they selected? Keith Wholohan seemingly working harder than Sukkar.
@John – Andrew Clennell has also predicted 50 of the last 0 election dates
Eden-Monaro and Blair don’t fit well with the other 4 easy LNP pick-ups there IMO
I’ve seen Matt Gregg out and about going to community events and I have seen Gabriel Ng out as well. I think you are getting me mixed up for saying Aston and not Deakin as I said earlier on I it was the Aston chat, that I was surprised at Labor putting effort in there due to the electorates voting history in recent decades.
@redistributed I’ve put Menzies as a Liberal hold. Its on such a tiny labor margin that I just can’t seem them holding it unless their poling improves. Keith Wolohan is also a very popular person. Even I, a Green, would consider preferencing him.
Aston I have as a Labor retain. Tudge had a big personal vote, and I believe that Mary Doyle is very well liked. Labor is also, as far as I know, been very active here, even doorknocking in mid last year. I have also seen Mary Doyle’s face well-plastered around the electorate, although I haven’t spent much time in the Liberal part of the electorate.
@Redistributed, why would Kooyong be the most likely teal to fall? The area is more professive than Goldstein, Curtin and Mackellar? And the Libs have lost Frydenburg’s massive personal vote.
I agree with Adam, the demographics changes there plus the popularity of Monique Ryan is more then enough for her to hold on.
@ Darcy
If you are right about Menzies and Aston
Then Chisholm will stay Labor and Deakin
Must be in play.
The liberal strategy for Vic of the rainbow
Of votes would be in disarray.
You missed Cowper and maybe Groom
@maxim noone said anything about pickups he said seats to watch please read. i thik EM will be a labor hold just. blair is a toos up
And I simply meant it’s a strange grouping – what links them? What is so special about them?
just mentioning what i heard.
Yeah not trying to have a go at you, just expressing my disdain for Andrew Clennell more than anything – the Jim Cramer of AusPol