The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
Easy lib gain retain.
My tips (as of 26 Feb and subject to change) for indies and Minors. Clockwise round the country:
Kennedy – Katter retain but definitely past ‘best before’ if not ‘use by’.
Brisbane – Labor gain
Griffith – Greens hold
Ryan – LNP might just get home
Mackellar – Talked of as Lib gain but hard to see. Ind hold.
Warringah – Ind hold
Wentworth – Ind hold
Fowler – Ind hold
Calare – not sure – count could be wild. Gee or Nats.
Kooyong – Lib win.
Goldstein – Ind hold. Just can’t see Zoe Daniel losing.
Melbourne – Green hold
Monash – Broadbent loses to Libs
Indi – Ind hold
Clark – Ind hold
Mayo – Ind hold
Curtin – Toss up. Kate Chaney is horse for the
course. Just can’t see her losing. But that is Eastern state point of view.
Richmond – Greens v good chance
Bradfield – Lib hold
Wills – Greens win
Macnamara – Labor loss to Greens but Libs might just squeak in.
Wannon – Can’t see it happening
Franklin – One to watch. Will depends on Greens preferences.
Grayndler – not at election but afterwards if Labor lose and Albo walks away.
Did I miss anywhere?
@Redistributed
Aston, Deakin and Menzies Labor has been putting in a lot of effort. For Aston they have a paid field officer and they have regular door knocks. These 3 seats all appear to be close and who ever wins each won’t win them by a large margin, definitely worth watching all 3 seats on the eastern side of the Yarra.
SpaceFish
I live in Deakin and Menzies is at the end of my street. Not a whisper from Labor at all in either seat. Not a corflute – not an ad – nothing, nada, zip. Not saying they won’t be close but Labor didn’t even candidates in Menzies abd Deakin until December. Aston, I understand trying to sandbag. Was it you that said Labor were campaigning hard the day after they selected? Keith Wholohan seemingly working harder than Sukkar.
@John – Andrew Clennell has also predicted 50 of the last 0 election dates
Eden-Monaro and Blair don’t fit well with the other 4 easy LNP pick-ups there IMO
I’ve seen Matt Gregg out and about going to community events and I have seen Gabriel Ng out as well. I think you are getting me mixed up for saying Aston and not Deakin as I said earlier on I it was the Aston chat, that I was surprised at Labor putting effort in there due to the electorates voting history in recent decades.
@redistributed I’ve put Menzies as a Liberal hold. Its on such a tiny labor margin that I just can’t seem them holding it unless their poling improves. Keith Wolohan is also a very popular person. Even I, a Green, would consider preferencing him.
Aston I have as a Labor retain. Tudge had a big personal vote, and I believe that Mary Doyle is very well liked. Labor is also, as far as I know, been very active here, even doorknocking in mid last year. I have also seen Mary Doyle’s face well-plastered around the electorate, although I haven’t spent much time in the Liberal part of the electorate.
@Redistributed, why would Kooyong be the most likely teal to fall? The area is more professive than Goldstein, Curtin and Mackellar? And the Libs have lost Frydenburg’s massive personal vote.
I agree with Adam, the demographics changes there plus the popularity of Monique Ryan is more then enough for her to hold on.
@ Darcy
If you are right about Menzies and Aston
Then Chisholm will stay Labor and Deakin
Must be in play.
The liberal strategy for Vic of the rainbow
Of votes would be in disarray.
You missed Cowper and maybe Groom
@maxim noone said anything about pickups he said seats to watch please read. i thik EM will be a labor hold just. blair is a toos up
And I simply meant it’s a strange grouping – what links them? What is so special about them?
just mentioning what i heard.
Yeah not trying to have a go at you, just expressing my disdain for Andrew Clennell more than anything – the Jim Cramer of AusPol
The South Gippsland Sentinal Times has predicted an April 5 election. This is based on information from a candidate who could not get printing done as the local ALP had them booked out for postal voting information that has to be posted on March 3. South Gippy knows it first !!!!
That’s a juicy bit of prediction.
The article – https://www.sgst.com.au/news/lock-it-in-federal-election-date-saturday-april-5
Looking at https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/candidates/third-party-pva.htm information:
“Voters must not sign the declaration on the application until the election is formally announced, or from issue of writ for a referendum. As such, postal vote applications must not be distributed before announcement for an election, or issue of writ for a referendum.”
There are a few things that catch my eye in the article.
The article starts getting into quotes with no speaker attribution but then goes to a “source”. Is the source the candidate who couldn’t get the printing done? Is it the printer? tallyroom.com.au?
“There’s not going to be an election called this Sunday (February 23) and so to me that rules out March 29 and the reason for that is they don’t want to go two weeks out from the WA election. …” This quote is awkwardly presented given this time has passed.
“…that they attempted to make a booking for postal ballot material to be printed but were told they were booked out printing for the Labor Party, material that had to be ready to be posted on Monday (March 3).” The phrasing here is not totally clear – “material that had to be ready to be posted on 3rd March”. Material that has to be ready to be posted, doesn’t mean material is going to be posted. If you were doing contingency planning, printing ready to go out for when it might be called is a real thing but we can’t necessarily draw the conclusion that it is being posted on said date.
If it does end up being 5th April, then shout out to South Gippsland!
@G ready to be posted means that it has to be ready so it can be posted on March 3….. tat means to be posted on march 3
I never look at them but presumably the postal vote information has the election date on it. Do they?
John – That’s highly plausible but we can’t say with 100% certainty that “ready to posted” is the same as “is being posted”.
Redistributed – I was thinking about this very thing and tried to remember. I feel like often they don’t, but they can and maybe have? I’m not entirely sure. On a hunch though, I looked up Google Images and saw two examples from recent Federal Elections – one from each of the major parties – neither with election dates. Maybe it’s up to each stakeholder to do what they choose, within the guidelines.
Yes you can. If something has to be ready to posted. Is has to be ready so it can be posted.
The seats that I’ve been taking a keen interest in are Whitlam, Gilmore, Fowler, and Bennelong. My predictions are below.
Whitlam: ALP retain, but the margin will decrease to between 2-4.5%. Someone commented on the Whitlam thread that the mere fact Whitlam is being considered a potential LIB gain or an ALP marginal highlights how poorly the ALP is performing.
Gilmore: LIB gain, margin around 2.5%. I will admit bias here because I want Phillips to retain the seat.
Fowler: Le easily retains. She will be there as long as she likes.
Bennelong: LIB gain, but only narrowly. Likely around 1-3%.
What other seats has everyone been i watching? This will be a very interesting election.
I reckon the Coalition will form minority government with some of the Teals, and maybe Dai Le.
If anyone with access can give us the gist it’d be appreciated
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=DTWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytelegraph.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Ffederal-election%2Fredbridgeaccent-rolling-tracking-poll-shows-labor-claws-back-ground-as-eight-seats-under-threat-from-coalition%2Fnews-story%2F98a231f0d8a3f431c47cd0073d5d3f1a&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&BT=federalelection
@elliot i think whitlam will be under 2% either way. Fowler easy retai for dai le. Gilmore around a 5% margin for constance. Bennelong around 4%.
I’ve been watching Dunkley, Bruce, Holt, Blair, McEwen, Hawke, Corangamite, McMahon, Blaxland, Franklin.
Labor gonna face at least threat on at 4 fronts. Greens in Melbourne, teals in tas and act and Muslim inds in western Sydney.
Sky News after Dark seemed to have toed in line with Trump (and by extension the Kremlin) in now opposing any more funds to Ukraine and criticizing Zelensky. Could this open the door for some maverick Coalition Politicians to become Pro-Russia? The Coalition and other Western Conservative Parties however remains steadfastly pro-Ukraine
@John
Redbridge found that Labor are strengthening a little in WA and NSW but seem to be projecting a 45-55 Coalition lead in Victoria – it also quoted Labor sources that said the party has written off Aston, McEwen and Chisholm, and are more focused on sandbagging Dunkley, Bruce, Holt, Hawke and Corangamite
Maxim
That would also mean they have also written off Menzies (which is notionally Labor) and aren’t even going to try in Deakin and Casey.
Labor of course also have a serious fight on their hands in Wills and Macnamara. It’s a long time since they had to be that worried in Victoria.
Will be interesting to see if there might be a surprise big swing in Maribyrnong but not enough to win.
I’d think the open seats of Gorton and Calwell might be more interesting to watch if this trend continues, I suspect though that when the day comes there wouldn’t end up being such a vast delta between Labor’s fortunes in NSW where most of the more reasonable marginals are and VIC where big swings are needed in places where the Coalition has no real traditional appeal or party structure (with the exception of Corangamite and Dunkley)
@Marh, I very highly doubt any centre-right Western conservatives will become pro-Russia. Australia has very little say in the Russo-Ukrainian War, besides supplying Ukraine with military equipment (such as weapons and vehicles) and foreign aid. Russia really doesn’t care what Australia does, it’s NATO they care about.
There’s no benefit in supporting a barbaric, illegal and completely unjustified invasion of another country. Russia is committing war crimes and genocide in Ukraine against the Ukrainians.
Australia has openly been very supportive of Ukraine since MH17 was shot down in 2014 over the illegally occupied region of Crimea. MH17 had many Aussies on board so that makes a lot of sense. If even Tony Abbott’s government strongly supported Ukraine I’m sure a Peter Dutton government would too.
As for Sky After Dark, they’re essentially Trumpist propaganda, similar to Fox News in the US.
Np
Last paragraph spot on.
If Trump gets anti democratic enough and he is trying very hard…. We need to work out if We can supp with the devil
https://www.sgst.com.au/news/lock-it-in-federal-election-date-saturday-april-5
Original article vanished. Same webpage, new story.
“The nomination od Saturday, April 5 came from a highly connected source.” Uh huh.
***
Feb 26 2025
Updated March 2, 2025
Michael Giles
Prime Minister rules out calling an election today
THE Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is going to Canberra today, Sunday, March 2 but he has ruled out visiting the Governor General “unless its to share a birthday cake with him” he told media at a Medicare announcement in Sydney.
Mr Albanese said he was continuing to prepare a Budget (due out on Tuesday, March 25) meaning that a May date for the Federal Election is now looming as the most likely.
The nomination od Saturday, April 5 came from a highly connected source. What changed over the past few days, who knows, but Labor’s improvement in the polls might be something the government is prepared to ride for a week or two more.
well it looks like April 5th is out
Bad news on the tariff front? D-Day is March 12, if it’s 25% they’ll wait til May 17 and hope for the best.
12th April: 35% – 40% chance
3rd / 10th May (somewhat interchangeable): 10-15% chance
17th May: 55% – 65% chance
Numbers may not add up to 100%.
In summary, solid chance for this coming Sunday* (9th March) announcement for 12th April, otherwise we likely slip to 17th May.
* I don’t recall an election call on a Monday. On Sunday morning, the PM gets sole attention and the AEC gets to work on the Monday morning.
If it’s this weekend, it would be the second time and election has been called on Labour Day (VIC).
The floods and severe weather could help the Greens out in solidifying their vote in Brisbane, Griffith and Ryan with their prospects improving in Moreton and Richmond as it will bring back climate change to the forefront.
it will probably be this weekend as it look like Labor have shelved meetings for the budget
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/pm-anthony-albanese-set-to-call-election-for-this-april-date/news-story/e178c660ecfdfc369d5bfae375f87c18
that and reports from canberra that govt departments arent acting as if they will be delivering the budget as is normally expected the one problem for albo is the fact there is atropical cyclone bearing down on Qld. specifically Brisbane. while i dont think the opposition will get in the way of helping the govt being in caretaker mode will signicantly hamper federal assistance
a mention of our local election analyst here too
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-04/nsw-state-watch-federal-election-battleground-electorates/105003506
and picture to mathc the name too woot
@spacefish i imagine it wll also help the qld lnp if they are seen to be doing a good job at crisis management.
if the cyclone makes landfall on Thursday night or early Friday morning as it’s reported and the damage is quite significant, it will be incredibly bad look if the PM goes to the GG and announce new elections early whilst the Country is dealing with a natural disaster.
@patreon thats the problem with leaving it this late. hes stuck between a rock and a hard place. if he doesnt go to the GG he has to deliver a budget that h had no intention of delivering and it will be a farce and slopppy. not to mention the years of deficiets.
@john
Albo has to punt on Alfred [ne Anthony] being a fizzer, whic h is likely, imo.
“if he doesnt go to the GG he has to deliver a budget”
Not true.
If he wanted to call a May election for the minimum 33 days, then that would be true.
But he could go to the GG on, say, March 16, and call an election for May 3 with a 7-week campaign.
but he wont
Does it really matter if Albo calls the election post Cyclone? If it was the last possible date he would have no choice – or go Thursday morning before it hits. Whatever he does he will be whinged at by someone.
I keep seeing here that Labor has conceded Chisholm, from what I’ve been told inside the party hasn’t given up on here or neighbouring Aston either so I’m not entirely sure where this information is coming from? Both seats have paid campaign managers that are running the seats which is usually a sign that they are taking it seriously.
John – What do you mean, “leaving it this late”? The PM’s said publicly any number of times he was looking to go full term.
That means 17th May (give or take) has always been the most likely date. 5th / 12th April was / is the only realistic block nearest to said stated full term.
The yay or nay of the Budget and the passing of the WA State Election were always the primary influences – neither of which have yet passed. The default and current position is that Budget is being delivered as scheduled – if we are explicity told otherwise, then we’ll know.
Also, “it [Budget] will be a farce and slopppy”. Correlation does not imply causation; however the Budget will or won’t be, it won’t be because of election date speculation.
As Ben suggests above and extrapolating slightly, there’s no reason we might not get a campaign that’s a week or two longer than the minimum for a 3rd / 10th / 17th May event.
This coming weekend period will pass with news or no news and if no news, then we continue to wait with pretend patience.
@ G i have it on good authority he was wanting to go sooner but this kept impeding this. so he kept putting it off he has considered multiple dates before now. december 7th was also a likely date as he was wanting to wait or the passing of the QLD and Nt elections but the polls detered this. Also just because he says hes gonna deliver a budet doesnt mean he ever intended to. hes just been trying to keep people guessing. from what im told the departments in canberra involve in the budet arent preparing to deliver it as they usually would.
What’s a budet?
Also, government that says they’re going full-term goes full-term. More shocking news at 6.