2025 federal election guide now live

By
Ben Raue
-
740

The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.

I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.

We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.

The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.

Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.

I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.

You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:

One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.

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740 COMMENTS

  1. It was 1931. However, if he loses this year, it would be even more exceptional, as labor had massive internal ruptures in 1931.

  3. That is last election prefs Mick Q. While they have been pretty accurate historically, I wonder if we are headed towards a situation where they become less useful. ON in particular I would suspect will have a very strong anti incumbent trend, e.g. will split 50/50 with a Coalition government but 60/40 with a Labor government. KB does have a trend line where he is allocating ON prefs as stronger to the coalition based on some recent elections.

  4. One could also argue that 1975 was a government losing after one term. Technically it was two terms, but it only took as long as a single term. Interestingly, it is also the last time a party got 55% or higher TPP, which was the result in this mornings resolve poll.

  5. When they do a poll they take a sample but try to ensure that sample matches the population of those who vote..
    Eg say they have 400 people over 70 but need only 300.. they need to adjust the ENTIRE sample to reflect this. This by itself creates a sampling error. There will of course be a error in respondent allocated preferences.
    Now 2022 preferences are exactly what happened.
    We have 3 figures for 2pp
    55 lnp
    53 lnp
    52 lnp kb
    Which is the more accurate ?
    Actual 2022 2pp was 52 alp
    If as opinion polls suggest there is movement from the alp
    Then 2025 environment will be worse for
    Labor.
    The 55/45 is worse than 51 -52 lnp it is Possible this is an out of line poll.

  7. Nether Portal and Darcy:
    The last first term Labor government to lose was indeed in 1931,but that followed a motion of no confidence in the government and the election was early.
    The Whitlam government was re elected in 1974 and dismissed in 1975 for failing to secure supply.It was then defeated in the following election,which took place at a time when its first term(assuming no early election had taken place in 1974) was about to expire.
    The Cook government was elected in 1913 but lacked a majority in the Senate.It called a double dissolution in 1914 but was defeated.
    These are the only examples of Govenments serving less than one term being defeated-but strictly speaking none of them were governments seeking election at the end of their first term.

  8. MIck Q – I think you will find the actual figure is around 52.5 – 52.6 which is why there are 2 different figures.

    Yeah, and as I said I think ON has a lot of anti incumbent sentiment so there is probably some shift in preferences there. But I agree, it looks an outlier, although also of a piece with their VIC intention poll recently (Lab at 22%) so maybe there is an anti labor bias (not intentional just through the process).

  9. Mick
    When a survey is done there is a quota for each demographic. When that quota is full- no one additional qualifies and the survey does not proceed.

  10. 25% for the ALP is catastrpohic. Unless the wheels really fall off it is hard to see it actually happening but the likelihood is strong that the Labor PV will have a 2 at the front. Not much solace in that for the LNP unless they have a number with a 4 at the front.

  11. There is absolutely no way that the ALP vote will be 25%.
    I cannot see it going below 29%. If it does, it won’t be by much.

  12. A correction to my previous post-the Fisher government of 1910 was a one term government.
    Only the Curtin/Chifley and Hawke/Keating governments have been re elected for a second term with a majority.Rudd/Gillard retained office with a minority.

  14. @Redistributed, do you mean that if the demographic quota is filled you individually can’t proceed with the survey, but the survey will continue until each quota is filled?

    I actually thought they used sampling.

  15. @Darcy
    *It was 1931. However, if he loses this year, it would be even more exceptional, as labor had massive internal ruptures in 1931.*
    Labor won in 2022 on the back of a strong women’s vote. That was never going to hold up once Dutton became leader. Labor is still stuck on fighting the last election and the reason it’s stuck and going backwards is it’s perceived to be anti Australian.

  16. The survey continues until each quota is filled. That is why they ask a qualification at the beginning. From my student days in market research – including the first Newspoll – filling that last quota can be a real pain. From my recollection, we sometimes went over in case as a contingency in case an error came to light with an earlier survey.

  19. Mick
    They do have different methodologies that is why trackers become important as it averages and takes into account those differences. In the US the polling companies have inbuilt biases and leanings toward. I don’t believe that is a problem here. The proof of course with all these polling companies is the result on the day. That is why they agonised so much after getting 2019 wrong. In 2022 they were pretty much spot on. People like Messrs Raue, Bonham and Bowe could give you the whole box and dice on the topic.

  20. Yes add Green and I agree with your last statement 100%.
    I was never claiming rorted opinion polls like usa. But trying to identify errors… of course there is the margin of error I think
    + – 3% as well

  22. Ok, now what is happening given the just earlier today Resolve a good news for the LNP Coalition (55% COA-45% ALP which is a 3% improvement for COA from last month) but Roy Morgan just released polling good news for Labor (51% ALP – 49% COA which is 2.5% improvement for ALP from last week). Probably the most inconsistent poll period I have seen in Australia.

  23. Much to almost no one’s (except John’s) surprise, there goes 29th March. No news for this date takes a whack out of chances of a pre-April holiday event.

    Event timing remains heaviliy dependent on the WA State Election date passing or not and the Federal Budget being a yay or nay.

    While 17th May remains the favourite, next up is a Sunday 2nd March announcement for a Sat. 5th April event.

  25. I am not sure it is that inconsistent Marh, Morgan is always very bouncy from week to week. Not sure what it is about Morgan that makes it so different, but I would treat individual Morgan’s with a high degree of caution.

    It may though be the first harbinger of an ALP revival, or be a false dawn and will be back to 51/52 LNP next week.

    The rest though are trending towards just above 30 for the ALP and just below 40 for the LNP, around 12 for the Greens and 8 for ONP.

  26. The previous Roy Morgan poll suggested 45% of Greens preferences going to the LNP which is unthinkable. I would have been too embarrassed to publish that. Roy Morgan does not seem like a serious pollster.

  30. There’s no way even 20% of Greens preferences will go to the Coalition.

    Preferences are interesting and it’s something someone could write an essay on. Moderate Liberal teals might preference the Liberals but tactical voting teals would preference Labor.

    I like OPV since it allows most people to be okay with who gets in but also doesn’t require preferences to weird minor parties, but I’m fine with FPV, I’d much rather it than FPTP or D’Hondt.

    At the 2024 UK general election for example the Conservatives would’ve held onto seats that Labour won but where Reform had a high vote, and if Labour and the Conservatives preferenced each other over the SNP on the basis of being anti-Scottish independence then the SNP’s poor result in Scotland could’ve been worse. Also the Conservatives wouldn’t have been wiped out in Wales thanks to Reform, the rural parts of southern and western Wales (including some predominantly Welsh-speaking areas) would have re-elected Conservatives.

  31. No the last official time was scullion in 1931 however labor should have lost in 2010 if not for the treachery of Oakshott and Windsor

  33. John,
    Scullin did not run to a full term as there was a motion of no confidence passed,which required an election.The last government to serve only one full term and be defeated was Fisher in 1913.
    Since the first majority government in 1910,this is what has happened:
    Fisher 1 term
    Cook portion of 1 term
    Fisher/Hughes split in 1916 with Hughes leaving Labor
    Hughes/Bruce 4 full terms plus 2 short terms
    Scullin portion of 1 term
    Lyons/Menzies/Fadden 3 terms plus portion of fourth term
    Curtin/Chifley portion of term plus 2 terms
    Menzies to McMahon 6 full terms plus 3 short terms
    Whitlam 2 short terms
    Fraser 2 full terms plus 1 short term
    Hawke/Keating 4 terms plus 1 short term
    Howard 3 full terms plus 1 short term
    Rudd/Gillard/Rudd 1 term plus 1 minority term
    Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison 3 full terms

    In the 1913 election Labor lost 5 seats and the independents 2 all of which were won by the Liberals who ended up with a majority of 1 seat but a minority in the Senate.The double dissolution election of 1914 saw the Liberals lost 6 seats,5 to Labor and 1 to an independent.

  34. Nether Portal: “Albo will go down as one of the worst PMs ever if he fails to win a second term. This hasn’t happened in any of our lifetimes. I’m pretty sure it was 80 years ago?”

    Somewhere in a quiet corner Tony Abbott is weeping into his budgie smugglers.
    His leadership was that terminal that nearly two-fifths of his colleagues voted for an empty chair instead of continuing under his suppository of wisdom.
    You may not like the current incumbent but at least he’s going to have his fate decided by the voters. Abbott wasn’t afforded that courtesy by his own partyroom.

  35. The 2 worst PM’s were Morrison and Abbott. Even Howard was better. They did not grow in the job.
    Menzies had to sides to him… the pm
    And the nutty Tory at election time

  38. Probably the best pm to never be was
    TED THEODORE he left school at 12.. founded a. Union the Awa which was amalgamated with the awu
    Premier of Queensland Deputy pm of Australia. In 1929 he just got a new book
    J.m Keyes General theory.
    He understood that economic policy had to be countercyclical not the conventional wisdom to cut back.
    Lyons was too conservative for Labor. He supported the conventional wisdom to live within your means
    Lyons was a captive of Melbourne big business. . the best pm Keith. Murdoch owned.

  39. Albo isn’t gone yet.
    Believe it or not, The Australiian is spinning Dutton’s matching Albo’s $8.5B Medicare promise as irresponsible ans subtly talking up the prospect of Min ority Government on today’s fromt page. Then there’s News.co.au going after Dutton’s share trading from 2008.
    Sure, who cares about 2008 in 2025, but cumulatively the impression is being crafted of a leader under siege.

  40. John, the kindest thing I can say about Abbott is that he is the personification of the old maxim “oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them”. Rudd sullied his reputation by sticking around and ratting on Gillard whenever he could.

    Mick, I have a biography of Theodore. Very complex fellow. It would have been fascinating if he had won Herbert back in 1925 as originally planned. He was forced to run in Herbert instead of his home seat of Kennedy because the ALP member at the time – Charles McDonald – had incumbency and refused to make way, even though Theodore was Qld premier at the time and was clearly destined for bigger things. Instead, Theodore lost Herbert and had to move to Sydney to enter federal parliament. McDonald died the day before the 1925 election. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that had Theodore entered in 1925, he could have succeeded to the leadership and become PM in 1929. Of course that opens up a whole new historical can of worms considering the events that plagued Scullin.

  41. Kennedy was alp held till 1966.
    So Theodore would have not lost his seat
    In 1931. Maybe he would have avoided the hatred of the lang forces.

  42. Cairns was part of Leichhardt in 1925, people there knew all about Ted and Bill McCormack and Mungana, that’s the more likely reason he didn’t run.
    Then there was the 1924 Caucus revolt, Ted and his mates in Cabinet secured the support of the Tories to keep their jobs.

  43. @Gympie
    Appears uncle.Rupert has something against Dutton! What?
    Why are they doing this?
    Looked at stuff re shares I am not convinced that Dutton did wrong.
    Turnbull was briefed did he tell Dutton?
    This is a good argument not to own sell or trade shares when you hold high elected office.

  44. MQ:
    Dunno, Murdoch has done well from Labor Governments over his career, looks like Dutton has made a few lucrative trades at the last minute, probably not the only one, but whataboutism won’t help him. I’d say Murdoch has more mud to throw, Dutton’s problem is a little like Bill Hayden’s, he’s almost a certainty to win, but he’s done such a good job, so is more or less anyone else now.
    Thinking about it, Murdoch was backing the Voice in, perhaps he was blindsided by Dutton opposing it?
    Certainly the old gent didn’t take Bill Shorten deposing Kevin Rudd well in 2010, though those dud Newspolls shoulda helped Bill in 2019.

  45. Andrew Clennell has named 6 six seats he thinks will be interesting to watch.
    Gilmore
    Eden Monaro
    Paterson
    Bennelong
    Blair
    Bullwinkel

  46. My prediction as of right now:

    Seats changing hands:
    LNC Gain – Tangney, Bullwinkel, Lingiari, Chisholm, Lyons, Gilmore, Bennelong, Paramatta, Mackellar, Robertson, Paterson
    ALP Gain – Sturt, Brisbane
    GRN Gain – Wills, Macnamara, Richmond
    IND Gain – Bradfield, Calare, Wannon

    Toss-ups – included in totals
    GRN Hold – Ryan
    LNC Gain – McEwen
    ALP Hold – Blair

    Totals:
    65 – Labor
    66 – The Coalition
    6 – The Greens
    1 – Centre Alliance
    1 – Katter
    11 – Independents

    Let me know if there is any I have missed! Predicting election date as the 10th of May.

  47. @ darcy il agree to all those lnp gains bar mackeller and i think Parramatta and Chisholm will be close. Sturt will be a lib retain in my opinion. Brisbane however could go lnp but grn will lose. Will’s I’d say Labor retain macnamara and Richmond are 3 way contests. But I think Labor will lose macnamara and maybe lose Richmond but I won’t say who too. Wannon will be lib retaintehans too strong. Calare would be a retain if gee wins. Bradfield will be close.
    Libs to win Ryan and mcewen but Blair is a Toss-up.

    Labor to be on around that but I’ve got the libs on at least 68. I’m saying election in April as Labor won’t want to deliver a budget.

  48. Thanks for that John. I lived in Chisholm until the redistribution. It is the one seat I am completely sure of. Myself and some others privately call Carina Garland the invisible woman, and Katie Allen is a much more well known member, despite not being in Parliament anymore. The Libs are also running a really strong campaign, whereas Labor’s doorknocks look as strong as the Greens’ in this area. We’ll see what happens, but I would be surprised if Labor held on.

  49. Yea I’m of the same but thanks for your analysis and local info. She basically won because of favourable boundaries on the Vic redistribution in2022 and the anti morrison/govt swing especially on the china issue.

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