The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
It was 1931. However, if he loses this year, it would be even more exceptional, as labor had massive internal ruptures in 1931.
Maybe worst PM at winning elections
That is last election prefs Mick Q. While they have been pretty accurate historically, I wonder if we are headed towards a situation where they become less useful. ON in particular I would suspect will have a very strong anti incumbent trend, e.g. will split 50/50 with a Coalition government but 60/40 with a Labor government. KB does have a trend line where he is allocating ON prefs as stronger to the coalition based on some recent elections.
One could also argue that 1975 was a government losing after one term. Technically it was two terms, but it only took as long as a single term. Interestingly, it is also the last time a party got 55% or higher TPP, which was the result in this mornings resolve poll.
When they do a poll they take a sample but try to ensure that sample matches the population of those who vote..
Eg say they have 400 people over 70 but need only 300.. they need to adjust the ENTIRE sample to reflect this. This by itself creates a sampling error. There will of course be a error in respondent allocated preferences.
Now 2022 preferences are exactly what happened.
We have 3 figures for 2pp
55 lnp
53 lnp
52 lnp kb
Which is the more accurate ?
Actual 2022 2pp was 52 alp
If as opinion polls suggest there is movement from the alp
Then 2025 environment will be worse for
Labor.
The 55/45 is worse than 51 -52 lnp it is Possible this is an out of line poll.
With fracturing of vote… major parties combined 65 to 75% 2pp measures less
Nether Portal and Darcy:
The last first term Labor government to lose was indeed in 1931,but that followed a motion of no confidence in the government and the election was early.
The Whitlam government was re elected in 1974 and dismissed in 1975 for failing to secure supply.It was then defeated in the following election,which took place at a time when its first term(assuming no early election had taken place in 1974) was about to expire.
The Cook government was elected in 1913 but lacked a majority in the Senate.It called a double dissolution in 1914 but was defeated.
These are the only examples of Govenments serving less than one term being defeated-but strictly speaking none of them were governments seeking election at the end of their first term.
MIck Q – I think you will find the actual figure is around 52.5 – 52.6 which is why there are 2 different figures.
Yeah, and as I said I think ON has a lot of anti incumbent sentiment so there is probably some shift in preferences there. But I agree, it looks an outlier, although also of a piece with their VIC intention poll recently (Lab at 22%) so maybe there is an anti labor bias (not intentional just through the process).
Mick
When a survey is done there is a quota for each demographic. When that quota is full- no one additional qualifies and the survey does not proceed.
25% for the ALP is catastrpohic. Unless the wheels really fall off it is hard to see it actually happening but the likelihood is strong that the Labor PV will have a 2 at the front. Not much solace in that for the LNP unless they have a number with a 4 at the front.
There is absolutely no way that the ALP vote will be 25%.
I cannot see it going below 29%. If it does, it won’t be by much.
A correction to my previous post-the Fisher government of 1910 was a one term government.
Only the Curtin/Chifley and Hawke/Keating governments have been re elected for a second term with a majority.Rudd/Gillard retained office with a minority.
@ redistributed
Are you sure?
Common-sense tells me otherwise
@Redistributed, do you mean that if the demographic quota is filled you individually can’t proceed with the survey, but the survey will continue until each quota is filled?
I actually thought they used sampling.
The survey continues until each quota is filled. That is why they ask a qualification at the beginning. From my student days in market research – including the first Newspoll – filling that last quota can be a real pain. From my recollection, we sometimes went over in case as a contingency in case an error came to light with an earlier survey.