The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
@ john
Even if you accept the result of Musk’s actions have had the desired effect which I don’t.
The way done basically barging in with his frat boys obtain8ng access to the computer system… then stopping disbursements or stealing information is contrary to secrecy privacy lawS.. and the proper way of acting ie legislation needs to be followed.
Trump/ Musk pretend to not understand what a conflict of interest is or could be
People cannot afford to protest vote.. the election in 2022 was close.. what you
See is what you get
Dutton in all is glory.. the nuclear con
Lack of transparency. The quick fix.. we will cut tell you later….
No no no
When an opposition leader fights the culture wars it tells you two things
1. Too much sky
2. No policies
When the bloody hell is Albo gonna call this election?
We had people thinking it’d be in the summer of 2024–25, but it’s now 18 February and still not even an announcement on the date, just speculation that it’ll be announced soon.
18 February is still summer
My guess is it’ll be on April 5 or 12 or May 17
All along he’s said he’ll go full term. And it isn’t normal in this country to announce election dates in advance. So the answer is – he’ll probably call it in April.
And it was never going to be held during the summer, it was always a ridiculous idea.
The chances of the election ever being held in the summer (there was one scenario) were always somewhere around 5%, no more than 10% at an absolute maximum, ie. not a thing. Similarly, there was a faint Feb / March sort of playing around but the reality of that was not much higher.
It’s hardly a surprise it’s not yet called. A lot still revolves around the WA election and the (political) timing of everything.
The most likely date has always been and remains 17th May but there does seem to be a 12th April chance. Politicians be politicking – as the saying goes, the election will be called when the government believes it has the best chance of winning. We just have to wait.
The former Australian Federation Party, which was re branded to Trumpet of Patriots, has been taken over by Clive Palmer, since the UAP cannot run at this election.
Gee what a shock
Trumpet of Patriots sounds like the name of some sort of 1930s Central European proto fascist Party. The website as it currently stands is done up in UAP yellow. They are calling for nominations but have no details, no policies no nothing.
The potential for double entendres is limitless!!
There has been another red ridge MRP of 29 seats. Awaiting data.
20
The poll conducted across 20 seats was conducted from 1002 respondents. So thats rough 50 people per seat.
Also reports the 2pp in these 20 seats is 52-48 towards the Libs as opposed to 51-49 Labor at the 2022 election
@redistributed I agree that Trumpet of Patriots sounds like a Eastern European nationalist party, whose name is awkwardly and roughly translated into English. Ha ha.
Now, down to psephology, who else thinks that Clive’s ToP actually advantages Labor, because it splits more of the “right-wing” vote than the “left-wing” vote?
The mrp is reported to be across both liberal and labor marginal seats across the country. I imagine it will be seats like Lingiari, Lyons, bullwinkel/ tangey, boothby/sturt, Blair/leichardt, Gilmore McEwen etc
Do the (likely) 3rd May Tasmanian LC election have any impact on the timing of the Federal election?
https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/legislative-council/elections-2025/index.html
Do you wait until that’s over and done with or does it not matter too much either way?
@g that severely restricts the dates available. It would be postponed if they held it then. April 12 also presents a problem since its Jewish Passover and albo has problems with Jewish voters
G
Constitutionally they cannot be on the same day – i.e. a Federal election cannot be on the same date as a state election. In the past, I think it was the ACT had to move the date to accommodate the Feds. Not sure how easy that would be in Tasmania.
J
Passover possibly not a big deal as traditionally observant Jews did not vote on a Saturday and either voted early or postal. Presumably, the PM would sound out Josh Burns and Mark Dreyfus and seek their views on the issue.
Does that mean we are left with 29 March, 5 April, 10 May and 17 May? For 29 March, Albo would have to be off to Yarralumla to see the GG this weekend.
@redistributed still he can’t afford anymore bad press with Jewish community I’d say 29 march and may 5 are the best bet as they probably don’t want to deliver the budget. Actually he’d only ned to do it by Monday.
Of all the things that could affect the timing, 3 Tasmanian LC elections are at the bottom of the pile. What would it affect, 60k voters?
The Redbridge marginal seat poll is not an MRP.
Kevin Bonham clarified in another post that the LC election will be moved if the federal election is scheduled for the same date.
Have they release the red ridge poll raue?
I don’t recall seeing particularly strong arguments either way for holding it (Federal) on 3rd May, so perhaps it’s just simpler for everyone to let the TAS election happen as scheduled. ?
@g albo will hold it when it’s politically convenient for him.
I Repeat again .. fixed 4 year terms so there are no guess the date games.
Good government demands Dutton support such.
Mick I say this again it requires a referendum. Last time they tried that it failed.
But it is more than just 4 year terms Darth. It also requires thinking about:
* Senate – 8 year terms, or 4 year terms all in one go, or 4 year terms with elections every 2 years? We moved away from half senate elections, yet I imagine a lot of voters would not be down with guaranteeing ON or similar a Senate place each election.
* Loss of confidence – does that mean an automatic election, or does the opposition get a chance to form a Government? If there is an election out of cycle, does the 4 years start from there or would there be a shortened term?
And that is thinking about it for 30 seconds, I am sure there are more issues than that.
I don’t think there is any appetite for another referendum regardless. Stuff like the above takes years to decide. It wouldn’t take effect until 2032 anyway at least.
If the announcement doesn’t come this Sunday (for 29th March), is it reasonable to assume there’s no obvious case for it to come the following Sunday for the 5th April? Or you can’t necessarily draw that conculsion.
Given the passing of the WA election the following week would be a logical timiing point, surely you’d just wait for that timing to say something or nothing.
@g the cutoff date is monday
@G
I can see some reasonable arguments for choosing April 5th over April 12th.
As others have noted, April 12th falls on Passover and the first weekend of school holidays for some states. For the southern states, the removal of daylight savings on April 6th may also a bit of a mood killer (but this is probably a real stretch in terms of potential electoral effects).
April 5th avoids all that at the cost of a one week overlap with the WA state election, which I don’t believe would be a massive issue. The state government looks completely safe and the federal government doesn’t have much danger here with only a few seats in play (Bullwinkel, Curtin and Tangney).
The other consideration is that an April 5th election would have to be called before the NT redistribution is determined on March 4th, so Labor would miss out on a small boost to the margin in Lingiari (0.9% before vs. 1.6% after), although that comes at the expense of the margin in Solomon (9.4% before vs. 8.4% after) which has the potential to swing heavily as per the NT election.
I think March 29th could still be in play if Albanese wants to avoid the avoid the risk of a potentially disappointing RBA decision on April 1st.
A gas your forgetting the issue of wa voters won’t be overly impressed with having to vote twice in a week
I cannot see an election called till after the wa election.
Most likely 17/5
Or slightly earlier
What on earth are you talking about, John?
The WA election is set for March 8.
The Federal election can’t be called now for earlier than March 29.
That’s three weeks apart. Three times as long as your assertion of voting “twice in a week”.
Some interesting points above.
Just from the WA election logistics perspective, I can’t help but think the WAEC (and their staff) would be far more appreciative of not having another election actively lingering about that could possibly cause any confusion whatsoever. Early voting starts in a couple of days, postal applications close in a week and a half, postals due back in just under 3 weeks, on top of all the post event counting and reconciliations etc. etc. https://www.elections.wa.gov.au/
For a 29th March AEC event, prepoll would start only only week after the WA election day. That’s pretty close. The AEC would likely be using many of the same more senior WAEC staff who would still be completing WA work, as their AEC contracts were starting.
Overall, not a deal breaker but you’d have to think the respective EC’s (WA / A) would prefer a slightly longer break between the two events than not.
Real talk sry mean to say twice in 3 weeks autocorrect…
To April we go.
17th May, anyone?
G march 29 is still available until Monday is over. I highly doubt it will be may given they will have to deliver the budget and they aren’t acting like they are going to. Brian Mitchell gave what appeared to be his valedictory speech last week and as did Graham Perret who upon being ejected from the chamber the prime kinster stated “it’s his last day”.
The Resolve polling that has come out tonight is dire for the ALP – 25% primary vote and 39% for the LNP. Resolve have the margin at 55:45 for respondent prefs and 53:47 for last election. 13% for Greens, 9% for ON and 14% for all the rest. The latter seems high but the combined UAP, Indie and Dogs/Cats vote in 2022 was over 15. Hardly an overwhelming endorsement of the LNP but the Labor % is shocking. That – if sustained would have to their seat count in the 50s and more dependent on the Greens than ever. 1 or 2 more of these and the government may go into a poll driven death spiral. State by state would be fascinating as it would suggest they would struggle to get two senators up in more than one state.
There won’t be a forced leadership spill but i actually wonder if Albo may see the writing on the wall and decide to step down and let Chalmers or another candidate lead them into an election.
The polls starting going bad for Labor, the thought was there is enough time to turn things around and that Dutton isn’t electable. And now it’s actually getting worse for Labor every poll. The interest rate cut won’t help because a perception has already been entrenched in the minds of voters and that won’t end well for Albo.
Too late for a spill not enough time. Again even if Albo quits there still is no time to hold both a party and membership vote that would take weeks. There is only about 7 weeks left until the election must be called.
There won’t be a need for a membership vote if there is 1 candidate. That’s why there was no votes held when Albo become leader, the other contenders had withdrawn.
At this stage, it’s very obvious that he is a drag on the Labor vote. Replacing him may save a few seats.
Still there are other ambitious people in labor other then Jim charmers and I don’t think they will just let him waltz in. Besides charmers is just as responsible as Albo if not more when it comes to eco no if matters plagueing voters. The same could have been said for scomo.
With any luck Albo will be heading to yarralumla today. I’ll be off the grid until 6am tuesaday On my way! Home from the us, hopefully when I land there will be good news
Resolve Kevin Bohan estimated 52/48
Albo will go down as one of the worst PMs ever if he fails to win a second term. This hasn’t happened in any of our lifetimes. I’m pretty sure it was 80 years ago?