2025 federal election guide now live

If the greens were to lose all 3 seats and make no gains with Albo so far behind him Dutton won’t be able to lose. Greens will only have 1 seat to give him and he coalition would get sharkie, katter and probably spender and Chaney to make the numbers. My call based on these polls is a Labor govt of any form is getting closer to impossible it’s gonna start being about how close Dutton is to majority. Then Labor will bring out the stop Dutton campaign and that will fail as it has up until now.

@ john
No you need the support of the coalition which is good govt practice

All bar maybe Ryan would be won by labor

All bar Ryan includes what?

Another poll https://www.9news.com.au/national/coalition-leads-labor-fresh-polling-ahead-of-2025-federal-election/48b935ee-d191-4687-ad2c-b78a0de4dcc5?ocid=Social-9News&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR0ENs4QsgshEBuOzYUe-HIDorLKlPrlAMjHG_LaVXG3jmXlwStIeoPVP90_aem_zZ95Ixr65SjO3mUS500X9Q mick how long are you gonna be in denial?

Also what does “No you need the support of the coalition which is good govt practice” mean?

“The team at YouGov behind the Australian MRP model is the same one that accurately projected both the 2023 Spanish election and the 2024 UK general election.

MRPs (multi-level modelling and post-stratification) are constituency projection models that first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about prospective voters and their opinions – in this case, which party they will vote for at the general election – in a ‘multilevel model’. It then uses data at the constituency level to predict the outcomes of seats based on the concentration of various different types of voters who live there, according to what the multilevel model says about their probability of voting for various parties (‘post-stratification’).“

Given this Poll was done on 40,000+ people across the country I’m willing to accept it at face value obviously some seat won’t swing as hard as this predicts and some may swing harder. The overall result should be very similar. Dutton to be the next PM.

https://au.yougov.com/politics/articles/51612-mrp-coming-soon

An interesting result which I think would be a very strong showing for the Coalition. I suspect the model is struggling to accurately predict crossbench seats however

According to the YouGov MRP polling, the most likely scenario is:
– Labor 66 (within a range of 59 to 72)
– Greens 1 (within a range of 1 to 3)
– Independents 10 (within a range of 9 to 12)
– Coalition 73 (within a range of 65 to 80)

Labor losses to the Coalition (16):
– TAS: Lyons
– SA: Boothby
– WA: Bullwinkel + Tangney
– VIC: Aston + Chisholm + McEwen
– NSW: Bennelong + Eden-Monaro + Gilmore + Hunter + Macquarie + Paterson + Robertson + Shortland + Werriwa

Labor gains from the crossbench (4):
– QLD: Brisbane + Griffith + Ryan
– NSW: Fowler

I’d question the likelihood of Boothby and Eden-Monaro flipping to the Coalition as well as Griffith and Ryan flipping to Labor, but overall does seem to be concerning for both Labor and the Greens.

Also it has Griffith being a labor vs greens contest. I can’t see that happening

@John
I think too early to declare Dutton as PM just yet, but I definitely agree that he’s in a winning position unless Albanese can find a momentum change via rate cuts or a strong campaign.

@angas I can’t see all 3 Brisbane seats going to labor. Maybe Brisbane and Griffith. In nsw I see dai Le holding they have strong control of Fairfield council as evident of the recent elections. Carbons would easily win McMahon and Blaxland I have doubts. I can see labor winnning Griffith as there won’t need to be a major primary shift to put the greens out. And I think labor has issues in macnamara that aren’t shown here. As for the teals I reckon they’ll get curtin and maybe the Victorian seats because this poll assumes same preferences flow as 2022. And a few seats are what you’d call tossups or too close to call.

Also the poll has labor losing virtually no vote in Franklin and the ind polling badly I think that teal and the Clarence mayor will push labor to the brink in the 2cp.

Agree with John here. Dai Le is not going to lose to Labor this time:

a) I doubt the Vietnamese community will forget Labor’s blunder of shoving Keneally into the seat in 2022, when Tu Le had already been somewhat chosen unofficially

b) Fowler constituents are being hit hard by the CoL crisis and she is putting heavy pressure on the Albanese government to act on it

c) Independents, once in, are rarely unseated (e.g. Zali in Warringah) – moreso here, as Dai Le has the support of a very, very united Vietnamese Australian community over any major political party (from personal first-hand stories I’ve heard, not just assumptions).

However, I think YouGov has missed Parramatta, which could actually flip to the Liberals due to the northern part of the seat swinging substantially harder than the general statewide swing in general.

“The YouGov seat by seat poll does not take into account the redistribution. That is a big fail. Might be OK in other states but not NSW Victoria and WA”

Have you got any evidence for this? Examples of seats affected? Because I calculated my own swings and they all come almost exactly spot on. Any deviations can easily be explained by different redistribution calculations.

@wombat you aren’t in the transportation business by chance? I know a guy who goes by that name.

I think their parramatta is close I think that one could come down to a handful of votes and that there estimate would be within the margin of error which is usually around 2% if I remember correctly

@John sadly not, although I am very surprised someone else is known as Wombater haha

No worries I just thought it odd and just got me curious.

Raue who said that

Ben

Two examples below

Menzies
Projected likely winner: Coalition
Two party preferred vote: Coalition (54.5%) over Labor (45.5%)
with 3.8% swing to Coalition

Chisholm
Projected likely winner: Coalition
Two party preferred vote: Coalition (52%) over Labor (48%)
with 8.4% swing to Coalition

They are two examples but the outcome if based on the old majority so if you say the swings are fine then Menzies would be a very close Liberal win as it is now notionally Labor and Chisholm reasonably comfortable as the projected margin is 3% or so.

And in Goldstein do we really believe that both Libs and Zoe Daniel will go backwards on the primary and that the Greens will go up by 2% and Labor up by 6%?
That might be getting too granular and I would be surprised if she lost – so should we leave it at the headline result only – a Zoe Daniel win – and largely ignore what is lying behind?

It’s showing the swing from the last election. Remember these are notional new marginal. 3.8% swing would make it a 3.8% margin that’s hardly close given swings avg. seats like Dunkley and Aston are also based off the last election even though Aston is now labor held and only predicting a 0.9% but that’s based offf the 2022 result. Similarity Dunkley is based off the 2022 result as a 2.6% based on the by election would put it much closer thent suggests.

Labor’s vote will drop in Goldstein and Kooyong as shown by polls across vic. But redistributed they clearly state on their poll that it should not be seen as accurate reflection or something to that effect.

@redistributed, hmm that’s strange. I’ve verified what you’ve said is what appears on the website, but when I download the data that doesn’t appear.

In Menzies, they have the estimated 2PP as Coalition 55%, and the swing to the Coalition as 5%, which is consistent with the seat being 50-50. In Chisholm they have a 5% swing producing Coalition 52%.

@Angas I question those seats too

Feels like the election’s not being called today.

I’m just looking through the poll results now to make my analysis. What I don’t get is that Labor are seeing big swings against them in seats like Barton and Blaxland.

@Nether

Barton: Linda Burney had a HUGE personal vote, being the Labor candidate for Barton. Her retirement means that personal vote is now gone + predicted anti-Labor statewide swing, hence the big swing projected

Blaxland: Jason Clare is likely facing a huge swing due to the perceived inaction on the Middle East conflict. Blaxland has one of the highest percentage of Muslim voters, and the rise of Muslim-backed independents worsens his chances of a win here.

Cunningham is another one.

@Wombater except doesn’t the redistribution makes Barton even better for Labor? I thought it added more of Marrickville into it.

As for Blaxland those angry voters wouldn’t vote Liberal. They would vote for those independents and those preferences would end up going back to Labor.

@Nether I doubt any redistribution can fully counteract the loss of Barton’s personal vote. Of course, I think Labor will still win – but not to the extent they did in 2017 and 2022.

For Blaxland: The independents are going to preference Labor last.

“A Muslim Vote-backed independent candidate is set to preference Labor last at the upcoming federal election, striking fear that safe seats could fall.”

https://au.news.yahoo.com/unlikely-alliance-spells-danger-labor-163000820.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAL-wslcR1Ax96BIbJwVkDOFHX95G78rXhG4CUKfqeXNTErXXF_s3ZHXGaNv98KhSjnKqIA0VxdfpjIw4arOOCYwpzyJ85faspuIFcaElJLkwx3AUofeXTLnXa9Q8CKyhv03JC6Cn-d6b74-T7M9uOyLq9fsmprYtS1xZgDmVr7LD

@Wombater that doesn’t mean voters will, and they can always backflip.

A clear inaccuracy is Lingiari. It is not swinging that much to Labor, especially given the CLP is still in their honeymoon period on the territory level and seem to be doing quite well.

It also seems that the poll has the Liberals going backwards in the teal seats. This should be a worry for Dutton.

@Nether Correct. However, the consensus in the Middle Eastern community is one of anger towards the sitting government, they can’t see that a Coalition would be much, much worse for their cause. They can backflip – but keep in mind that a big swing doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll lose. He’ll probably still win – but voters are doing a protest vote against him. For some, that would mean voting Liberal (ironically).

Even if they voted for the Muslim backed independents, their preferences would go to the Liberals. That is why there is such a huge projected swing against Clare in Blaxland.

@Wombater except the Coalition is more pro-Israeli than Labor.

Anyway, I’ve come to the conclusion that the poll is full of inaccuracies. For example the swing to Labor in safe rural seats held by the Nationals doesn’t make sense, nor does the fact that while safe Labor seats in Perth are swinging to the Liberals some of the marginal ones aren’t flipping back (the only WA seats that the Liberals hold according to that poll are Bullwinkel, Canning, Durack, Forrest, Moore, O’Connor and Tangney, while Labor has Brand, Burt, Cowan, Fremantle, Hasluck, Pearce, Perth and Swan and then Curtin is held by Kate Chaney).

@Nether yes, that is what I said. The voters still don’t care, they’d rather show their anger than think two steps ahead as to the implications of their protesting vote.

Yes, the poll is full of inaccuracies for sure! Dai Le in Fowler is the most obvious one, the polls claim she’ll lose to Labor – absolutely not. Trust me (and Sportsbet seems to think so) – she is going to win Fowler. Keep in mind this poll was done by a company based in the UK

MRP polling doesn’t account for local factors and electioneering, personal appeal of MPs and candiddate quality, the entrance of independents (e.g. teals, Dai Le) and third parties and other immeasurable factors. It is much less reliable when there are non-traditional ALP vs LNP contests and large non-major party votes.

Member for Dobell is back in the QT frame, alongside Members for Gilmore, Eden-Monaro and Lingiari, so i’d say Dobell might be at risk. Also, Members for Holt, Corangamite and Pearce have had more than their fair share of Dixers, so there’s another 5 that Labor are worried about that weren’t IDed by YouGov.

Pundits saying Katter will support the Coalition are wide of the mark, imo.
Yesterday’s C-M had him boasting about withdrawing support for Labor in 2013 unless they reinstated Rudd.
He’s certain ly had a charmed run. Kennedy now run s from the NorthWest across to the Cairns suburbs and down into Central Qld.
Rather than continually expanding Kennedy to allow for population decline, Wouldn’t it make more sense to abolish it and absorb the seat into Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson and Capricornia?

@gympie Kennedy is at quota as is Leichhardt. No need.

@wombater the poll can’t be considered as being accurate or a prediction and it even says so. They are simply making predictions or guessing based on demographic modelling. Dai Le won’t lose. Blaxland could be interesting based on that.

@np they won’t go backwards, Abe in nsw but not vid and wa. This poll is simply guesswork. I think Dutton would take this deal any day of the week anyway. While he wants to win the teal seats back he will give them up in a heartbeat for those outer surburban labor seats if he had to choose and that seems to be the coalitions strategy

The thing about Kennedy is it goes below quota and gets extended, to the point that it now covers a third of Qld [567K/1,727?].
Have a look at the boundaries of Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson, Capricornia to see that Kennedy just keeps increasing in size as it decreases population.

@raue I think they have adjusted the swing on the website to be against the 2022 result not the redistribution. The proper swing is in the data

Given Elon Musk is now part of the Trump administration and is hence a government official in the US now, will he interfere with our elections and politics like he is currently doing overseas, particularly in the Americas and Europe?

Currently he’s campaigning with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party for the upcoming German federal election on 23 February. He’s also met with many right-wing leaders in Europe and South America.

Would he do the same in Australia or are our laws around donations too strict? Personally I can’t stand him and want him out of our politics (same goes for woke left people from overseas chipping in to our politics and acting like they’re experts).

@hes not a government official and the doge has no legal power. He’s a government unofficial really. He’s aligned with trump and has his trust but DOGE isn’t an offical government department hence why he didn’t require congressional approval to appoint him. He can support whoever he wants but yes foreign interference laws will prevent him from funding or using his platforms like X to influence the election.

I doubt Musk would be concerned about a little thing like legislation. If he wants to put his thumb on the scale of our elections, he will. He probably already is.

Elon is not gonna put his business interests at risk for his politics. That’s why he is not an official of the trump government. He concerns himself with domestic political affairs because he can and he inspires politics overseas legally. Despite his friendship with trump he does not concern himself with political engagements that threaten his business interests hence why he doesn’t come out on policies that effect china. Because he has a Tesla factory in china and doesn’t want to lose favour with the Chinese government.

@ john
Musk is a wealthy and strange man.
His organisation as set up has no power and does who supposedly had power to refer access also broke privacy laws.
For Musk and Trump there is no concept of a ” conflict of interest “

Still why would he risk his financial interests over politics in another country

I agreee waht he is doing in principle. Govt is wasting money and in some case defrauding the taxpayer / being defrauded.

The forced demise of Shane Patton, the Police Commissioner, should hopefully make things worse for Labor in Victoria. He has been treated extremely shabbily by Jacinta Allan and Anthony Carbines the Police Minister. Their behaviour is somwhere between cowardly and reprehensible. He has been in the police since 1978 so he has devoted his life to the service. I have no idea what sort of man he is but should he seek some sort of revenge they may politically regret their actions.

RBA drops interest rates to 4.10 per cent. In their statement they convey, “the Board remains cautious on prospects for further policy easing.” This alludes to a singular interest rate cut so…suggests heading to the polls in April

March 22 is now out. Only 6 dates remain.