The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
@lurking whilst I agree with your gains. Your math is off you have the Libs on 70 seats and only 5 mps supporting them. 76 is required to form government.
@Westle im happy to agree with most of that. Although i have coalition gaining Curtin in WA as well. I have Dunkley and Chisholm as leaning Liberal but havent given them away just yet. Calare as leaning National but havent written off Gee yet. Ive got Labor just holding onto Wills. Greens to lose Brisbane but unsure as to who atm. Labor to lose both Richmond and Macnamara but again havent completely given them away to anyone et. I agree the Libs can count on Sharkie, Le, Katter and Spender should they finish with the most seats. and based on past behaviour could possibly seek support from Stegall. Curtin whether won by the libs or Chaney could also be likely relied upon for support. Haines i wouldnt bank for the libs unless they get to 75 and need her.
on my chopping block are a whole range of seats. Hunter, Shortland, Holt, Bruce, Hawke and the libs seem to be also targetting Corangamite. the libs also seem positive about Kooyong and Goldstein. edn-monaro, greenway and Macquaire probably at the extreme rnge if they can get a decent swing. I have Blair asa a tossup but think Neumann may just hold there. Parramatta and Reid are also being talked about as liberal targets. I imagine the CoL will hurt in places like Rankin and Lilley but probbaly not enough to flip it and Moreton could be in danger as is being talked about by some labor people due to the removal of Perrett due to gender quotas. labor maybe and outside chance in Leichardt also.
In regards to WA the election over might reveal some further nder stress seats like tangey, Hasluck and Cowan being vunerable.
Im not writing off the Teals in Franklin and Bean due to the sentinment in the ACT of electing independents and in Franklin due to the low primary vote
no matter how i look at it though Labor has no hope for Majority and a very narrow pathway to Minority. Likely outcome is gonna be a Liberal minority with a chance they can still make it to majority.
the other thing is I factor about a 2-3% vote in some seats for the “I hate Morrison” vote which is no longer applicable
@john
You suggest I am over optimistic for Labor. Bur you are like the chap who upon buying a lottery ticket makes concrete plans to spend Millions. I don’t think this will be other than a close election.. so seats with swings required of more than 5% will not be in play.
There will most probably be a minority government . Dutton is not ready to govern..no policies… no costings and again the nuclear con.
@mick you keep telling yourself they arent and il see you after the election
@Darth Vader February 11, 2025 at 10:17 am
Then one more independent would probably throw their support, it could be any one of the unlisted Teals.
@john February 11, 2025 at 11:26 am
At one point in time I did consider Bean to possibly be the most likeliest Teal gain due to it’s safe seat status, invisible MP and huge interest in voting for Independents in the ACT state seats that overlapped with Bean. Unfortunately I posted it in Pollbludger so it’s ignored and buried under a bunch of posts.
I’m of the opinion that the Teals likely won’t expand since there seems to be no indication of it, especially in polling. Tbh it’s hard to get any info on Teal and Teal target seat races mainly bc these races are heavily localised and any info I can get on them comes from people living outside these seats; often with partisan bias that I have to factor in. However, it doesn’t seem like the Teals have been massively unpopular enough to lose their seats, hence, why they all retain their seats (even if Curtin seems most at risk)
Just for a thought experiment, assuming the Teals are to gain seats, their most likely gains are (in no order): Franklin, Bean, Bradfield, Cowper (due to earlier MRP polling) and Wannon. Maybe Fisher due to Darth Vader’s comments, and he’s a guy who seem pretty optimistic about the Liberals.
@WEstie Curtin is on my list because it was won on such a small margin and was due to a number of factors that wont be in play in 2025.( the auto correction away from labor back to the liberals which helped the teal get elected, polling suggesting Chaney is curently under water and behind and te fact she had supported Libe Sheep Exports before backflipping after it was shown to be hurting her and the anti semitism issue which she has been shown supporting the pro palestine votes in parliament and the fact her electorate contains Jewish voting suburbs such as Dalkeith.) theres also the fact the libs have regained much needed Donations in Curtin that abandoned them in 2022 and moved towards Chaney. Also the fact ScoMo is gona and the anti morrison factor is no longer in play. ScoMo at one point made several attemps at overturning popular WA policies made by McGowan(another factor) during Covid(another) and made several statements alienating the people of WA. polling Goldstein was also favourable in that MRP.
what comments were made about Fisher? that seems like a pretty sold LNP retain in my opinion. Labor also faces some challenges in western sydney that could see it lose seats there
@john February 11, 2025 at 1:09 pm
Apologies to Darth Vader, I typed in the wrong name, it was Gympie, they said that “On those booths, a Teal could win Fisher with tactical voting from Labor and Greens and a large-ish field to dilute the LNP vote” in the most recent comment in the Fisher thread.
But then again, I doubt Fisher (or any other Teal targets rlly) will flip to Teals; no expansions but no losses either.
@Lurking Westie I live in Bean and I can’t see it going independent. Jessie Price has a good campaign but I don’t think it will be enough. You are absolutely spot on with your comments about David Smith, though. He is totally invisible and I’ve found him to be pretty useless in my dealings with him
I cant see Fisher being lost this time around. Coalition are gonna be too strong.
Bean I would say is a long shot but not out of the question.
Franklin is the serious danger.
@Nick low level backbenchers in safe seats usually are.