The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
@lurking whilst I agree with your gains. Your math is off you have the Libs on 70 seats and only 5 mps supporting them. 76 is required to form government.
@Westle im happy to agree with most of that. Although i have coalition gaining Curtin in WA as well. I have Dunkley and Chisholm as leaning Liberal but havent given them away just yet. Calare as leaning National but havent written off Gee yet. Ive got Labor just holding onto Wills. Greens to lose Brisbane but unsure as to who atm. Labor to lose both Richmond and Macnamara but again havent completely given them away to anyone et. I agree the Libs can count on Sharkie, Le, Katter and Spender should they finish with the most seats. and based on past behaviour could possibly seek support from Stegall. Curtin whether won by the libs or Chaney could also be likely relied upon for support. Haines i wouldnt bank for the libs unless they get to 75 and need her.
on my chopping block are a whole range of seats. Hunter, Shortland, Holt, Bruce, Hawke and the libs seem to be also targetting Corangamite. the libs also seem positive about Kooyong and Goldstein. edn-monaro, greenway and Macquaire probably at the extreme rnge if they can get a decent swing. I have Blair asa a tossup but think Neumann may just hold there. Parramatta and Reid are also being talked about as liberal targets. I imagine the CoL will hurt in places like Rankin and Lilley but probbaly not enough to flip it and Moreton could be in danger as is being talked about by some labor people due to the removal of Perrett due to gender quotas. labor maybe and outside chance in Leichardt also.
In regards to WA the election over might reveal some further nder stress seats like tangey, Hasluck and Cowan being vunerable.
Im not writing off the Teals in Franklin and Bean due to the sentinment in the ACT of electing independents and in Franklin due to the low primary vote
no matter how i look at it though Labor has no hope for Majority and a very narrow pathway to Minority. Likely outcome is gonna be a Liberal minority with a chance they can still make it to majority.
the other thing is I factor about a 2-3% vote in some seats for the “I hate Morrison” vote which is no longer applicable
@john
You suggest I am over optimistic for Labor. Bur you are like the chap who upon buying a lottery ticket makes concrete plans to spend Millions. I don’t think this will be other than a close election.. so seats with swings required of more than 5% will not be in play.
There will most probably be a minority government . Dutton is not ready to govern..no policies… no costings and again the nuclear con.
@mick you keep telling yourself they arent and il see you after the election
@Darth Vader February 11, 2025 at 10:17 am
Then one more independent would probably throw their support, it could be any one of the unlisted Teals.
@john February 11, 2025 at 11:26 am
At one point in time I did consider Bean to possibly be the most likeliest Teal gain due to it’s safe seat status, invisible MP and huge interest in voting for Independents in the ACT state seats that overlapped with Bean. Unfortunately I posted it in Pollbludger so it’s ignored and buried under a bunch of posts.
I’m of the opinion that the Teals likely won’t expand since there seems to be no indication of it, especially in polling. Tbh it’s hard to get any info on Teal and Teal target seat races mainly bc these races are heavily localised and any info I can get on them comes from people living outside these seats; often with partisan bias that I have to factor in. However, it doesn’t seem like the Teals have been massively unpopular enough to lose their seats, hence, why they all retain their seats (even if Curtin seems most at risk)
Just for a thought experiment, assuming the Teals are to gain seats, their most likely gains are (in no order): Franklin, Bean, Bradfield, Cowper (due to earlier MRP polling) and Wannon. Maybe Fisher due to Darth Vader’s comments, and he’s a guy who seem pretty optimistic about the Liberals.
@WEstie Curtin is on my list because it was won on such a small margin and was due to a number of factors that wont be in play in 2025.( the auto correction away from labor back to the liberals which helped the teal get elected, polling suggesting Chaney is curently under water and behind and te fact she had supported Libe Sheep Exports before backflipping after it was shown to be hurting her and the anti semitism issue which she has been shown supporting the pro palestine votes in parliament and the fact her electorate contains Jewish voting suburbs such as Dalkeith.) theres also the fact the libs have regained much needed Donations in Curtin that abandoned them in 2022 and moved towards Chaney. Also the fact ScoMo is gona and the anti morrison factor is no longer in play. ScoMo at one point made several attemps at overturning popular WA policies made by McGowan(another factor) during Covid(another) and made several statements alienating the people of WA. polling Goldstein was also favourable in that MRP.
what comments were made about Fisher? that seems like a pretty sold LNP retain in my opinion. Labor also faces some challenges in western sydney that could see it lose seats there
@john February 11, 2025 at 1:09 pm
Apologies to Darth Vader, I typed in the wrong name, it was Gympie, they said that “On those booths, a Teal could win Fisher with tactical voting from Labor and Greens and a large-ish field to dilute the LNP vote” in the most recent comment in the Fisher thread.
But then again, I doubt Fisher (or any other Teal targets rlly) will flip to Teals; no expansions but no losses either.
@Lurking Westie I live in Bean and I can’t see it going independent. Jessie Price has a good campaign but I don’t think it will be enough. You are absolutely spot on with your comments about David Smith, though. He is totally invisible and I’ve found him to be pretty useless in my dealings with him
I cant see Fisher being lost this time around. Coalition are gonna be too strong.
Bean I would say is a long shot but not out of the question.
Franklin is the serious danger.
@Nick low level backbenchers in safe seats usually are.
Is election timing pretty much now a 9th March call for a 12th April event or April call for 17th May?
If so, I guess we find out in just under 4 weeks.
I would have thought 11 March announcement – a few states have a PH on the 10th.
There’s talk now of the budget possibly being a surplus. Three surpluses, one maybe two rate cuts would suggest Albo would stick it out as long as possible. I am hoping for an April election however.
@Australia’s Kent Davidson , I doubt the large percentage of voters who get their news from Facebook/ Instagram/ Tik Tok/ radio news snippets when in the car and so on pay much attention to ‘budget surpluses.’
They know the figures are rubbery, even if few would have ever read that many large expenditure items are ‘off budget’.
They may vaguely know governments are in big debt, but find it hard to relate to figures in the billions.
The election will be about cost of living, and whether or not people are better or worse off under Labor. Other issues will pop up but none have the power of what’s happening with one’s Google Pay/wallet/purse at the supermarket, petrol station, doctor’s surgery or private hospital.
@MLV
A 11th March announcement for an election on what date?
@rob 100% agree
A possibility is that the PM calls the election after the WA election (maybe as soon as March 9 or 10 if he wants one in April). I read that there will be a March budget just like the last two election years. My guess is the election will probably be April 12, if not May 17. This is so not to clash with school holidays or ANZAC Day or be on the day before Mothers Day.
I can just see it now…
Voice over – “Enough of the standard breakfast in beds, cringe coffee mugs and cute drawings, this mother’s day weekend, give mum the chance to shape the country. Vote. [Vision of little kid taking the mum’s hand into a polling place]. Ok, maybe a couple of cute drawings is ok. [Shows child’s drawing of mum and child going to vote].”
April 12 and May 17 are the dates always talked about. 3 May is too close to Easter and Anzac Day but is May 10 an option?
@melb an 11th of March call would put the election on 19th April which is good Friday doesn’t matter what date he goes to GG though. So far there are 7 available dates (8 if you exclude Easter and Anzac day pucbil holidays.) March 22,29 April 5,12 and May 3, 10 and 17.
Sry Easter Saturday not good friday
@Kent any surplus the govenrment can announce will be rigged and probably made up of bs numbers. no way the governemnt can fix the expected 40 years of defeciets forecast legitimately. they cant solve the CoL crisis and be in surplus at the same time its just not possible.
@rob australians dont care the government is in surplus, they arent.
@votante its slated for MArch 27 but if the election is called before that they wont deliver one becausae they will no longer be the government and therefore cant.
@Darth vader that is largely corrrect but there are 9 dates including Easter and Anzac Day thought il assme that was a typo.
@MLV doesnt matter if its a public holiday on march 10th he can still call it then no one cares when the PM goes to the GG but if he waits until 11th he wont be able to call an April 12th election that needs to be done by the 10th.
Yeah, then if he can’t go to the GG on March 11th then April 12 is out and it will be a May election. With all of the troubles Labor are having in VIC, does anyone think it is a good idea to call an election during a long weekend? It would look like a slight to the VICs and that might spell real trouble.
I can’t see the election being called in the middle of the WA election for much the same reason.
There is speculation he May call it in the middle of the wa election. I don’t think people care when he calls it they just want him to call it. If he waits until May he will get hammered the budget is gonna be bad for thrm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-12/act-clive-palmer-high-court-hearing/104908578
No UAP at this election. What will it be? Will Clive dredge up another name from the past?
I’ve been getting political-themed ads from palmer on the TV, it’s authorised by him for Mineralogy (his mining company). Mostly attacking the government on cost of living, and talking about his plans for fast rail. I’ve got no clue what his next move is.
Posting from the US for the next two weeks
@john
“new redbribridge poll 51.5-48.5 to the libs. i think its only a matter of time before the libs crack 52-48 on a newspoll thereby burying any hope f a labor minority govt”
Agree with that.The trend of the polls is important too-if Labor continues to deteriorate slowly but steadily,majority Liberal government becomes more likely.
An article in Crikey yesterday (14th Feb.) suggests the election will be called this weekend.
“Launching the election campaign this weekend means Labor would avoid a budget, Senate estimates and a distracting clash with public holidays.”
https://www.crikey.com.au/2025/02/14/federal-election-dates-australia-labor-albanese-government-public-service/
Bring it on
Calling it this weekend would mean late March. Unless Albo wants the sure fire disaster of a long campaign and a date in April.
Going now would be interesting – the major parties seem prepared as do some independents. One Nation have been invisible and after his High Court loss Palmer would need to conjure something out of nothing. Any key seats where the majors don’t have candidates yet? Any reason why 29 March doesn’t work? 22 March would need writs issued on Monday for the 33 days – is that possible?
29th of march doesn’t work for supernova on in Melbourne.
Well todays Saturday so yes it iss4 as long as Albion goes to visit the gg before the end of Monday it can.
For me
That would mean Albo really needs an interest rate cut next week, as if he doesn’t get it at least with an April date he’d have the April 1 meeting as a back-up and might get a very helpful cut right as pre-poll starts/heats up
5591 interest rate cut isn’t gonna undo the damage of 12 rises. It may provide a sugar hit in the polls but that’s it.
John – I don’t think Supanova would be enough of a reason to not hold it.
I looked up the event and the seats where based (AEC).
Sat. 29th March (Melbourne) – Maribyrnong
Sat. 12th April (Gold Coast) – Moncrieff
If it was on either of these dates, hopefully someone at the AEC would come across it (or they have now) and just have to put on some extra declaration vote staff at voting places / last few days of early voting in the surrounding areas. Maybe AEC also liases with organisers to reach out to attendees to remind them to vote.
@g but I’m busy that day so it would be an inconvenience to me. (Btw it was a joke) I’m sure attendees would just do early voting. The real issue is that venues used for supanova are also used for counting and possibly voting. This happened I at thenovember 2022 vic election with another event at the Flemington Showgrounds
If I was the pm I sure as hell wouldn’t be holding it on those dates
Also oz comic con Perth is on April 5th so that’s not a good date either. I’m also in Liverpool (uk) on may 3rd if that’s not too difficult for the pm
@John
A sugar hit and some assurance that things might get better while Dutton remains a bit of a mystery and point of suspicion to voters (not much detail to their plans yet) could be enough to keep Albo in the lodge, Labor just desperately needs some momentum and I reckon once they’ve got it, it’ll be hard to win it back
John – To my understanding, the AEC well and truly have all their major counting / operations centres settled and well advanced in prepartions, so it’s not going to make any particular difference if an event such as the ones you note, are or aren’t occuring at said venues on said dates; the AEC just won’t be using them.
In terms of voting, it will just depend on the date of the event and whatever tenative planning exists.
Should be fixed terms every 4 years
None of guess the date?
It’s a constitutional thing you’d need a referendum
The YouGov seat by seat poll does not take into account the redistribution. That is a big fail. Might be OK in other states but not NSW Victoria and WA
I can see that in the UK these MRP polls have some relevance as in England – in the most part you only have three parties – with four in Scotland and Wales. We have so many variables with independents – of all sorts – as well as ON and UAP. When you have seats with 10 or 12 candidates can you really know? So, besides being a discussion point, do they have any real relevance in the Australian context?
The YouGov does take into account the redistribution, just not when calculating the swings. The actual margins take into account the redistribution.
I actually found the most interesting thing was the Greens losing all three Brisbane seats and not picking up Macnamara or Wills or Richmond. That would be a very, very bad night for the Greens.
This seat poll is over 40000 people across the country so thats 250+ per seat likely. Interesting but again it does state these can’t be seen as accurate as it does basically predict what people are gonna do based on demographics. However the coalition would like this poll. Labor will be shitting themselves.
@adam it’s not accurate so take it with a grain of salt.
Redistributed although uk has fptp here they have. To predict preferences