The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
@maxim yea and now they are winning them opinion polls usually have a bias towards the left not the right since people are reluctant to tell the truth to pollsters. look at the us election they all said it was going to be close but Harris was never even in contention. the fact the polls are going against a left labor govt is pretty obvious on the trend
@ john most times opinion polls tend to be reasonable accurate except polls of individual electorates. There is no left wing bias in the polls.. they are at best a snapshot at the time they are taken. Hoq
Last two elections there has been at least a slight leftward bias no? Wonder if the increasing trend of lower information/propensity voters shifting right has any impact there or if the pollstars are on top of maintaining their methodology.
How things are interpreted depends upon the reasoning. A cost of living crisis which will skittle Labor and potentially take safe seats in its wake?
Or people are dissatisfied but waiting and hoping for the choice which allows them to vote against the liberals?
Dutton probably travels well in Queensland but there are few seats the lnp can win extra there
Most other states besides SA.. possible alp gain there. ; are hopes that small target works and Morrison is forgotten.
But Dutton was an important part of the Morrison govt and his actions be tenders call into question at least his judgement.
The Dutton opposition has a tail as long a dinosaur who for the most part are not up to the job. Some relatively competent ” moderates” have retired and the worst such as Pitt and Robert have gone.
It is said govts lose rather then opposition’s win. Has Labor done enough to lose probably not. Are the lnp up to government no… that Dutton is willing to be part of the nuclear Con shows he is no
Knight in shining armour but rather another run of the mill politican who will do what ever it takes.
If Labor and their supporters continue to try and focus in on Dutton being the weak point of the Coalition they risk losing tbh, he has been criminally underestimated from where he was when he took the leadership but they are hollow on policy and very thin on front bench talent
@mick its not a bias perse but it usualyy skewed towards labor due to the nature of what people will admit to a pollster vs what they really do at the voting booth. polls arent always accurate and their is a margin of error which usually falls more often to the labor side of the fence. qld Blair and Moreton are probably considered in play and id say the Liberals are worried about Leichardt as ive previously stated we have no data on how an election without Warren Entsch and a non high tide election specifically in qld for labor will work given that the last time this occured was 1993. you have to go back to 1984 to the last time labor took ground from either of the coalition parties. 2007 was an outlier in the fact you had Kevin07 from queensland in a high tide election for labor and no entsch running. 2 pf three factors wont be in play this time. the last election was basically lost because of morrison. He alienated 3 key groups Chinese, small L liberals and WA voters. the only seat lost outside these 3 key areas was Robertson and thats a Bellwether which they barely won. and it was a 3 term govt whose problems had built up. and labor barely managed a majority. with morrison gone and albanese on the nose pretty much everywhere they will recover significantly. right now noone cares about morrison or the fact dutton was in that govt. every new opposition leader is usually a remnat or the last government even albanese was a key player in the rudd/gillard years but noone brings that up anymore. noone other then the hardcore rusted on labor voters probably agree with you Dutton and his team are seen as a credible alternative and polling shows that Dutton has come from “unelectable” 3 years ago to being on the verge of toppling a first term government. Has Labor done enough to lose abosolutely and again the polls show that. Is the Lnp up to govt well the majority of people seem to think so. Nclear is not a con it a reliable baseload power source and most people agree with that policy the only people who oppose it are labor and their ridiculous idea we can power this country on renewables alone. They oppose it because it wasnt their idea and they are afraid it gonna work and that it gonna show thir idea wasnt as good.
@Maxim if they focus on Dutton they will lose because they arent putting up idas and they are playing the man not the ball. Its just like trying to run a campaign against the oppositions star player instead of tryng to kick the ball and score points.