The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
@John, can you give us your realistic worst case scenario (for LNP) prediction?
I think the worst case scenario for the LNP, realistically, would still be a Labor minority but only needing the Greens for supply & confidence.
So, around 71 ALP & 5 GRN or 72 ALP & 4 GRN seats.
@trent Labor will go shopping with the greens last. Albo would look to the Independents first, teals second and grn if they have no choice
@witness realistically I cant see then ending up on fewer then 64. They may fail to win bullwinkel and Curtin and maybe lose sturt though i don’t think they will but that’s it.
I can’t see the Liberals not winning Bullwinkel. It’s a seat they would normally hold and Labor isn’t as popular in Perth as they used to be.
Just a note, I’ve landed in London after a long flight from Perth. I’ll be here for a week, mostly for the North London Derby. This means I’ll be on at odd times, mostly in what is the morning or afternoon in eastern Australia.
Trent
Which are your 5 Greens seats?
I can see the Greens definitely winning Melbourne and Griffith. They also have a very good chance of winning Wills and Macnamara – one gets the feeling that despite Josh Burns best efforts, the Labor vote is going to collapse. Reasonable chance in Richmond and Brisbane could be a three way fight. Ryan is by far the Greens best chance of a loss. So somewhere between 4 and 6.
@Redistributed I disagree. It’s more likely that the Greens will lose Brisbane. Even a tiny against the Greens would make it a Greens seat.
@Trent In that scenario, Albo would likely try to get C+S from the teals instead.
Worst case for liberals is alp majority govt.
More bad news:
Murdoch sold sky.news. peta and Co
We’re told to be honest.
@np its the splitting of the conservative vote that concerns me.
I’m in the USA for another week. I’ve been in Dallas since Friday and heading to Vegas in 12 hours. I’m there until Saturday then I. Off to dc to witness the inauguration of the greatest predisent in history. For the second and final time.
@redistributed I’m willing to give them Melbourne Macnamara and Griffith but I think Khalil can hold on in Will’s… just they will likely lose Ryan and Brisbane and Richmond is a Toss-up and 3 way race
@ mick that’s not happening at least not in the reality we currently occupy
It’s possible that the ALP take 3 out of Casey, Menzies, Deakin, Sturt and Moore while the LNP lose Wannon, Cowper and Bradfield to IND without re-gaining any teal seats and perhaps 5 or less seats flip from Labor to Liberal. Some seats like Aston, Lyons, Bennelong and Bullwinkle just seem very much ripe to go Liberal but I can certainly see them retaining seats like McEwen, Chisholm, Robertson etc. Would be a best case scenario but it’s not unfeasible.
@redistributed:
I think the Greens’ most likely scenario is that they will gain Macnamara and maybe Wills, but lose one of the QLD seats (Brisbane or Ryan).
@maxim they have half a chance in sturt and maybe Moore…. the other three will be liberal retains. Labor cannot hold majority all the polls show they are gonna bleed net seats
@John statewide or national polls are large aggregations (that absolutely might not play out as they are currently showing), when you drill down to the seat level swings are not uniform or always in the same direction. Just look at what happened in Victoria last state election when the Liberals achieved a statewide 3% or so swing to them but they lost seats on net to Labor. Yeah there are places where Federal Labor pretty much can’t defend but don’t assume they can’t snipe certain seats either just because there is a statewide or national trend against them.
For the record I agree and think Labor will do well to take one of those seats on the night but there is a lot of scrutiny coming for Dutton that he’s been able to duck pretty effectively so far
Last election
Lindsay and La Trobe swung to the liberals
@ john
We’re you referring to the second part of my post
@Maxim while theoretically it is on paper possible for independents to win the three aforementioned seats, and is very possible in the case of Bradfield, I doubt that Cowper or Wannon will fall.
I grew up in the seat of Lyne which is to the south of Cowper. Lyne is more conservative than it has ever been because it’s now quite a rural seat (even though Port Macquarie is quite a conservative regional city in terms of voting habits). It appears the independent vote is mostly in Coffs Harbour and Bellingen. However, on the state level the entire Mid North Coast (Cowper and Lyne, and most of Page too which is in the Northern Rivers) is safe Nationals seats.
@mick the first part