2025 federal election guide now live

Update: I forgot to add Lyons as a Liberal gain.

For the first time in 4 years Trimmed Mean inflaiton is back to the RBA target. Australia was able to bring inflation under control without going into recession. Real Wages are rising again. Per Capita GDP is growing again. IMHO if there were at least two interest rate cuts then Albo would be much better placed to win a small majority and seats like Werriwa would be held and Labor would have a better chance to pick up Banks or Bonner.
Albo biggest mistake was to hold the Voice referendum wihout securing bipartisan support something which gave Dutton a lifeline as OL at a time he was struggling to make inroads. It also provided ammuniation for the right to say Albo cares more about {*Insert Woke issue} than bread and butter issue. The next goal post for whoever wins on Saturday is to bring real wages, GDP per capita back to prepandemic levels.

* Disclaimer- i am not saying the Voice is woke nor do i have a definition of what Woke is but it is a word that someone like Dutton is good at using whatver it means.

I’d love to post my prediction for this election, but I’m waiting for the final polls to come out on Friday before I finalise it. So far I think Labor will coalesce around 73 seats, but depending on how the next few polls go it might go up or down.

My prediction is
Liberal Gain: Gilmore, Lingiari, Aston, McEwen, Paterson, Bullwinkel, Ryan, Lyons, Bennelong, Tangey, Werriwa.
Labor Gain: Sturt, Brisbane
Green Gain: Macnamara, Richmond
Independent Gain: Cowper

tossups: Blair, Hunter, Robertson, Parramatta, Calare, Whitlam(leaning labor), Bean, Bendigo, Hawke, Corangamite, Franklin (lean labor), Solomon, Curtin, Kooyong, Goldstein, Moore, Fremantle, Wannon, Bradfield.

id like to believe the libs can win Indi but im not gonna go there. below predictions are on

So
LIB: 62
LAB: 54
GRN: 4
IND: 11
TOSSUP: 19

but on a push
LIB: 67
LAB: 63
GRN: 4
IND: 16

I am leaning to something like

ALP 76
LNP 55
Other 19

not going to predict seats as due to redistribution there will be some flips between LNP and Labor. Think that LNP will get a few flips from Labor – but these will be offset by losses to Labor and the crossbench. Similarly Labor to get a few seats from LNP but also lose some to the crossbench.
also think the IND/GRN may lose 1 or 2 seats but similarly gain others

@redistributed, I’m interested in the next state breakdown too.

Resolve’s state breakdown this week – and Resolve had usually favoured the Coalition more than other pollsters – had the Liberal primary vote down to 33% in Victoria. That’s the same as the 2022 result, after successive federal Resolve polls had the Liberal primary vote up around 38-39% (a 5-6% swing compared to 2022) in Victoria, until the previous one was down to 35% before now plummeting further.

(It also had a -31 satisfaction rating for Dutton in Victoria!)

It is only one poll, but does continue a trend across most polls where the Liberal primary vote in Victoria had been dropping from the high 30s, to mid 30s, and now 33% (same as 2022 election) in this one.

So I’m definitely interested to see if other pollsters like Newspoll’s state breakdown shows a similar result.

@ Trent
Freshwater seems to be the one that is most Pro-Coalition while Roy Mogran is more Pro- Labor. I trust newspoll the most i am hoping there will be more polll. William Bowe on Pollbludger does a weighted result

The Nationals will hold Cowper I reckon despite the margin.

Yeah I’ve mostly been using PB’s weighted results by state as a guide. That currently has the Liberal primary vote around 35% (+2 from 2022) and Labor around 31.5% (-1.5) in Victoria, which if that turns out to be accurate would really limit the Coalition’s seat pickups in Victoria. Depending of course on where the swings occur, but I doubt it will be in the lower margin seats like Chisholm and more likely in the higher margin seats like Hawke & Holt which probably won’t swing enough to flip now that Coalition’s polling has deteriorated so much.

Newspoll is the one I trust the most too, Morgan has been too Labor leaning for ages, Freshwater definitely more Coalition, and Resolve had been much worse for Labor (especially in Victoria) than most other polls too but not as Coalition-friendly as Freshwater.

So it’d be great to have final week Resolve + Newspoll state breakdowns to get a better idea of where seats might be more likely to flip or hold.

@Nimalan usually woke is defined as things that are radically left-wing, but I understand why this confuses some people and usually it helps to give examples.

I know Sky News labels lots of things woke, so if anyone wants a more centre to centre-right perspective of what I define as woke I’m more than happy to answer any questions.

Re Fowler
The boundary between Fowler and Blaxland was woodville Rd Villawood
The difference around there was the alp
Vote in Blaxland was 10% better.
Just this small area gives an indication of
How much KK Suppressed the alp vote

@ Nether Portal
i respect your views i dont have a defintiion myself. I have heard example like critical race theory, unconscious bias training, DEI, Pronouns, Welcome to Country, 3 flags, Adam Bandt refusing to stand in front of the Australian flag, Republic, Palestine, Trans rights as very examples citied in the media.

@ Trent
I think the swing in SE Melbourne will be much less than Hawke/Gorton there are more localised grievances such as Melton Rail electrification, Western Highway. While the SE melbourne like Pakenham/Cranbourne lines already have electric double track rail with all level crossings removed by next year. Clyde rail maybe an issue going forward.

its just like saying sohie mirabella surpressed the lib vote in Indi. but in 2019 despite cathy mcgowan retiring Helen Haines still won against a decent liberal candidate. people have enjoyed this new Mp after being taken for granted by labor. also Dai Le will enjoy preferences from the Mulsim voting groups. hard to see Dai Le being turfed out