The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
I’m gonna say this is gonna be similar or a reverse of 2010. Where the Libs made ground in all states but vic and Labor made ground in Vic. Expectthe opposite. Labor may pick-up some seats but libs will make gains against the grain in Vic. Labor minority govt
I respectfully disagree. Labor may be about to do something not achieved in over 50 years – improve their standing in the parliament at their first re-election. Something not achieved by Hawke, Howard, Gillard or Turnbull. Mind you, none of them were running against Spud the dud. If Labor wins a majority, they should send a thank you card to Dutton.
I can see a scenario where the Libs gain ground in VIC but it doesn’t translate into many seats due to an inefficient swing wasted in Labor’s heartland. The fact that the Libs can’t confidently claim Chisholm at this stage and spend more effort targetting seats further up on the pendulum says a lot on their prospects. Then Labor will pick up seats in SA and maintain their ground in WA which results in Labor again winning a narrow majority like in 2022.
We all know it’s in part because Labor have run the biggest disinformation campaign and lies and scare campaign in modern history.
possible alp wins (8)
sturt Leichhardt Brisbane Griffith Moore
Bennelong(notional) Deakin Fowler
possible independent/ Teal ( 5)
Wannon Cowper Calare Monash Bradfield
these sums don’t count alp losses
I’m willing to concede sturt and Brisbane to Labor and Cowper to the ind.
“The biggest disinformation campaign and lies and scare campaign”…. until the next one, right John?
AEF is now forcasting Labor will be in majority. However, i personally still feel it is Labor minority between 70-75 seats. I think Labor will be willing to concede Menzies as a notional loss. I am counting Aston as a Liberal seat as i use General election not by-election.
Other potential losses for Labor in order of liklihood
1. Paterson
2. Gilmore
3. Lyons
4. McEwan
I am hoping for another Redbridge/Essential and Freshwater this week as i have only seen Newspoll, Roy Morgan and You gov this weel
Apparently Yougov’s releasing another MRP on the weekend, while they’re not great for individual seats, it should give a good idea how much the outer burbs will swing, which should give an idea of whether the limit of lib gains will be seats like McEwen and Paterson or Corangamite and Blair.
John I’m intrigued to know, what specifically do you think is disinformation and lies? I’m guessing the nuclear costing and public service cuts are included?