The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
Posting in the wee hours of the night due to being stranded in Ballarat overnight due to train delays. Had to pickup a Obiwan Kenobi lightsaber.
My predictions.
ALP 62
LIB 75
GRN 3
OTHER 10
Big swing against ALP particularly in Victoria
ALP 63
LNP 76
GRN 2
IND 9
Almost every independent has said no deals, that just means that they want to negotiate on each deal like David Pocock in the senate b
Interesting tables in the Australian today.
LNP is in the best position on 2pp at the start of the campaign since 2013.
However it doesn’t really factor in the independents.Reading between the line to me it signals that the LNP can only get to majority government if they defeat most of the TEALS.
“No deals” doesn’t mean anything, they just need to pick one of the two to offer confidence and supply to, that’s not a coalition deal.
It’s always “no deals” until a deal is the only way to make the parliament work.
If the Liberals are unable to defeat the Teals, they could also get into minority government with the support of some of them. No one wants to admit it now, but put the culture wars and petty politicking aside, and there’s plenty of common ground to work with there.
Tommo9, I admit I am pretty weakly informed on Clark and Wannon.
If Coalition perform well then Indi would not surprise me as a dark horse win. General performance should be strong in Victoria and it’s a country seat. Plus while you say Haines is entrenched, my sources say she is no McGowan and the stink of Mirabella has faded. In top of that the Liberal candidate apparently is pretty good.
Calare has a history of independents (Andren) and I can see Gee surviving here.
Cowper there are good indications and Fisher I wanted to pick a Queensland Teal win. It seems the most likely of the lot.
If Teals had the kingmaker position, I wonder what concessions could be made?
The platforms of the major parties are so anaemic that the influence of the Teals as kingmakers would not look so much to be “concessions” as it would policy development.
I would argue that a minority Coalition government with the support of the Teals could end up being more fiscally conservative than a majority Coalition government.
I imagine with the school holidays and several long weekends intersecting the polling preiod we might see an unusual amount of prepoll/postal and absentee voting.
Not putting too much confidence into a model like this, but the updated YouGov MRP is interesting and seems more realistic than the initial release.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51908-labor-one-seat-short-of-a-majority-in-yougovs-second-mrp-of-the-2025-australian-election
Predicted central scenario:
– ALP: 75 (from 69 to 80)
– LNP: 60 (from 55 to 68)
– GRN: 2 (from 1 to 3)
– IND: 13 (from 9 to 14)
LNP gains from ALP: Aston, Bennelong, Gilmore, Lyons, Robertson, Werriwa
ALP gains from LNP: Deakin
ALP gains from GRN: Brisbane, Griffith
IND gains from LNP: Cowper, Wannon
No longer LNP gains: Boothby, Bullwinkel, Chisholm, Eden-Monaro, Hunter, Macquarie, McEwen, Paterson, Shortland, Tangney
No longer ALP gains: Fowler, Ryan
Seats like McEwen and Paterson staying with Labor are a bit of a surprise.
While in theory this good for Labor some of swing against them in their heart will only make it harder for to hold onto in 2028.
Ngl, I think the results of this new YouGov MRP poll is equally as suspicious as the last MRP poll in February (which amongst other things showed Labor gaining Ryan, Liberals gaining Eden-Monaro and Bootby)
Somehow Labor retains McEwen and gains Deakin? Greens retain Ryan despite losing Griffith? Labor retains Paterson? This isn’t mentioning that Labor’s very close the majority despite lenient predictions for Labor saying that at best they’d probably win around 71 seats.
Cowper and Wannon are Teal gains but not Bradfield which is another surprise.
@Lurking Westie
Greens win in Griffith last time was based on a collapse in the LNP vote and an unpopular sitting member, stars not aligning for them this time. Ryan is the UQ seat, Greens held the State seat last year.
@SpaceFish
Agreed, even if Labor manages to hold this election, there will still be a significant number of very marginal seats. Unless they can find a way to reset in the next term, it’s hard to see them winning in 2028.
@Lurking Westie
Yeah this one is probably a very optimistic result for Labor compared to the last one which was quite a strong prediction for the Coalition.
Looking in more detail:
– Deakin and Robertson are effectively tied so probably better to think of both as incumbent holds
– Chisholm, Eden-Monaro, Macquarie, McEwen and Paterson are all predicted to be held by less than 1% margin
– Bradfield is also effectively tied, which checks out if both Cowper and Wannon are also going to fall
This model does seem to be struggling with the 3 Greens seats in Queensland, but these ones are hard to read in general.
Out of all the potential Independent gains, Wannon definitely feels like it has the most hype around it currently so will be one to watch closely.
MRP may well be reasonably accurate as to the overall numbers for seats where Labor & Coalition are the competitors. I suspect it will have less success with non-traditional seat competition involving Independents & Greens – particularly in three way splits where the order of finishing is critical to the final result
The MRP polling period went for a month and ended around budget night so it wouldn’t have pick up much sentiment or reaction to the budget and budget reply.
Wannon, Bradfield and Cowper are the most hyped-up independent targets. Hyped-up is not the same as likely to flip.
@Lurking Westie Polling has improved for Labor. Anyone saying they have a ceiling of 71 seats hasn’t updated their forecasts. Incumbency also helps to retain/sandbag close seats. With the current MRP, it looks like the bigger swings are occurring in safer seats so Labor is able to withstand the swing (places like Hunter or Blair probably having just enough margin to hold up), while key marginals in urban seats are still doing well for Labor.
I didn’t take the last you gov poll too seriously and don’t for this one either
Does anyone have a redistribution tool thats easy to use?
AEC encourages lawful & respectful campaigning
https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2025/03-31.htm
With the 2025 federal election now formally underway the AEC has today encouraged political parties, candidates and others to adhere to the rules around campaigning, and to engage respectfully.
*
AEC warning on third-party postal vote applications
https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2025/03-31a.htm
The AEC is today warning voters about using unsolicited postal vote application forms from political parties, including via SMS prompts.
@dragons what specifically are you after
A website or application to redistrict federally, like for a hypothetical expansion of parliament
@dragons there were a couple floating around but i have since lost the link
Does anyone believe the Guardian Tracker Poll ? Even with the latest polls shows the coalition with an election winning lead on TPP. It is hard to follow how they get to that figure. They have a range figure but if you get a mid point figure it will be LNP 51.6 to ALP 48.4
Maybe they have a fundamentals component, e.g. economy is bad so should shift to opposition?
The Guardian tracker is slow to update
The Guardian tracker had todays date on it. I do not read much from the Guardian find it bit to left wing for my readings but thought would show Labor leading. Makes sense if it is using months old polling but why have such a tracker if it is not up to date ?
If I understand it correctly, the Guardian tracker uses the 2022 results as a baseline and works on the assumption that each pollster still has the exact same level of bias (generally for Labor) as it did at the 2022 election. So if a pollster overestimated Labor by say 2% in 2022, then all of its polls are marked down by 2% for this tracker.
Assuming that the pollsters have updated their methodology and are no longer overestimating Labor’s vote share, then it’s going to be quite far off the mark, but polls often seem to be biased against conservative parties in recent times so maybe the Guardian’s team is onto something.
@Up the dragons
Any particular state(s) you’re wanting to do?
There were a couple of different tools shared on here during the NSW/VIC redistributions. I’ll see if I can find the links to those.
I’ve also got something that I managed to hack together over the Christmas break, but I’d need a bit of time to polish and package it up so that others can use it.
@Angas thanks I have one for Victoria but not the rest of the country