2025 federal election guide now live

Posting in the wee hours of the night due to being stranded in Ballarat overnight due to train delays. Had to pickup a Obiwan Kenobi lightsaber.

My predictions.
ALP 62
LIB 75
GRN 3
OTHER 10

Big swing against ALP particularly in Victoria
ALP 63
LNP 76
GRN 2
IND 9

Almost every independent has said no deals, that just means that they want to negotiate on each deal like David Pocock in the senate b

Interesting tables in the Australian today.
LNP is in the best position on 2pp at the start of the campaign since 2013.
However it doesn’t really factor in the independents.Reading between the line to me it signals that the LNP can only get to majority government if they defeat most of the TEALS.

“No deals” doesn’t mean anything, they just need to pick one of the two to offer confidence and supply to, that’s not a coalition deal.

It’s always “no deals” until a deal is the only way to make the parliament work.

If the Liberals are unable to defeat the Teals, they could also get into minority government with the support of some of them. No one wants to admit it now, but put the culture wars and petty politicking aside, and there’s plenty of common ground to work with there.

Tommo9, I admit I am pretty weakly informed on Clark and Wannon.

If Coalition perform well then Indi would not surprise me as a dark horse win. General performance should be strong in Victoria and it’s a country seat. Plus while you say Haines is entrenched, my sources say she is no McGowan and the stink of Mirabella has faded. In top of that the Liberal candidate apparently is pretty good.

Calare has a history of independents (Andren) and I can see Gee surviving here.

Cowper there are good indications and Fisher I wanted to pick a Queensland Teal win. It seems the most likely of the lot.

If Teals had the kingmaker position, I wonder what concessions could be made?

The platforms of the major parties are so anaemic that the influence of the Teals as kingmakers would not look so much to be “concessions” as it would policy development.

I would argue that a minority Coalition government with the support of the Teals could end up being more fiscally conservative than a majority Coalition government.

I imagine with the school holidays and several long weekends intersecting the polling preiod we might see an unusual amount of prepoll/postal and absentee voting.

Not putting too much confidence into a model like this, but the updated YouGov MRP is interesting and seems more realistic than the initial release.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/51908-labor-one-seat-short-of-a-majority-in-yougovs-second-mrp-of-the-2025-australian-election

Predicted central scenario:
– ALP: 75 (from 69 to 80)
– LNP: 60 (from 55 to 68)
– GRN: 2 (from 1 to 3)
– IND: 13 (from 9 to 14)

LNP gains from ALP: Aston, Bennelong, Gilmore, Lyons, Robertson, Werriwa
ALP gains from LNP: Deakin
ALP gains from GRN: Brisbane, Griffith
IND gains from LNP: Cowper, Wannon

No longer LNP gains: Boothby, Bullwinkel, Chisholm, Eden-Monaro, Hunter, Macquarie, McEwen, Paterson, Shortland, Tangney
No longer ALP gains: Fowler, Ryan

Seats like McEwen and Paterson staying with Labor are a bit of a surprise.

While in theory this good for Labor some of swing against them in their heart will only make it harder for to hold onto in 2028.

Ngl, I think the results of this new YouGov MRP poll is equally as suspicious as the last MRP poll in February (which amongst other things showed Labor gaining Ryan, Liberals gaining Eden-Monaro and Bootby)

Somehow Labor retains McEwen and gains Deakin? Greens retain Ryan despite losing Griffith? Labor retains Paterson? This isn’t mentioning that Labor’s very close the majority despite lenient predictions for Labor saying that at best they’d probably win around 71 seats.

Cowper and Wannon are Teal gains but not Bradfield which is another surprise.

@Lurking Westie
Greens win in Griffith last time was based on a collapse in the LNP vote and an unpopular sitting member, stars not aligning for them this time. Ryan is the UQ seat, Greens held the State seat last year.

@SpaceFish
Agreed, even if Labor manages to hold this election, there will still be a significant number of very marginal seats. Unless they can find a way to reset in the next term, it’s hard to see them winning in 2028.

@Lurking Westie
Yeah this one is probably a very optimistic result for Labor compared to the last one which was quite a strong prediction for the Coalition.

Looking in more detail:
– Deakin and Robertson are effectively tied so probably better to think of both as incumbent holds
– Chisholm, Eden-Monaro, Macquarie, McEwen and Paterson are all predicted to be held by less than 1% margin
– Bradfield is also effectively tied, which checks out if both Cowper and Wannon are also going to fall

This model does seem to be struggling with the 3 Greens seats in Queensland, but these ones are hard to read in general.

Out of all the potential Independent gains, Wannon definitely feels like it has the most hype around it currently so will be one to watch closely.

MRP may well be reasonably accurate as to the overall numbers for seats where Labor & Coalition are the competitors. I suspect it will have less success with non-traditional seat competition involving Independents & Greens – particularly in three way splits where the order of finishing is critical to the final result

The MRP polling period went for a month and ended around budget night so it wouldn’t have pick up much sentiment or reaction to the budget and budget reply.

Wannon, Bradfield and Cowper are the most hyped-up independent targets. Hyped-up is not the same as likely to flip.

@Lurking Westie Polling has improved for Labor. Anyone saying they have a ceiling of 71 seats hasn’t updated their forecasts. Incumbency also helps to retain/sandbag close seats. With the current MRP, it looks like the bigger swings are occurring in safer seats so Labor is able to withstand the swing (places like Hunter or Blair probably having just enough margin to hold up), while key marginals in urban seats are still doing well for Labor.

I didn’t take the last you gov poll too seriously and don’t for this one either

Does anyone have a redistribution tool thats easy to use?

AEC encourages lawful & respectful campaigning
https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2025/03-31.htm

With the 2025 federal election now formally underway the AEC has today encouraged political parties, candidates and others to adhere to the rules around campaigning, and to engage respectfully.

*
AEC warning on third-party postal vote applications
https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2025/03-31a.htm

The AEC is today warning voters about using unsolicited postal vote application forms from political parties, including via SMS prompts.

@dragons what specifically are you after

A website or application to redistrict federally, like for a hypothetical expansion of parliament

@dragons there were a couple floating around but i have since lost the link

Does anyone believe the Guardian Tracker Poll ? Even with the latest polls shows the coalition with an election winning lead on TPP. It is hard to follow how they get to that figure. They have a range figure but if you get a mid point figure it will be LNP 51.6 to ALP 48.4

Maybe they have a fundamentals component, e.g. economy is bad so should shift to opposition?

The Guardian tracker is slow to update

The Guardian tracker had todays date on it. I do not read much from the Guardian find it bit to left wing for my readings but thought would show Labor leading. Makes sense if it is using months old polling but why have such a tracker if it is not up to date ?

If I understand it correctly, the Guardian tracker uses the 2022 results as a baseline and works on the assumption that each pollster still has the exact same level of bias (generally for Labor) as it did at the 2022 election. So if a pollster overestimated Labor by say 2% in 2022, then all of its polls are marked down by 2% for this tracker.

Assuming that the pollsters have updated their methodology and are no longer overestimating Labor’s vote share, then it’s going to be quite far off the mark, but polls often seem to be biased against conservative parties in recent times so maybe the Guardian’s team is onto something.

@Up the dragons
Any particular state(s) you’re wanting to do?

There were a couple of different tools shared on here during the NSW/VIC redistributions. I’ll see if I can find the links to those.

I’ve also got something that I managed to hack together over the Christmas break, but I’d need a bit of time to polish and package it up so that others can use it.

@Angas thanks I have one for Victoria but not the rest of the country

can is ee your vic one?

on another note does anyone know if there is a pre arranged campaign plan detailing stops in advance?

I doubt any side would publish their campaign stops in advance, so as to not give the cookers and nutters any advance notice to disrupt their carefully stage-managed photo ops.

@Real Talk that and of course any abuse or harassment they may face. Not so common in Australia but in Japan former PM Shinzo Abe was assassinated (not while he was PM by the way) in public.

Not even the journos travelling with the leaders know where they’re going. I think it was earlier today, the headline was “Albanese leaving Victoria” because he was heading to the airport but the media didn’t know where he was going next.

my rough prediction labor 68 coalition 70 crossbench 12.

Im updating that to 67 Labor 70 coalition crossbench 13. This assumes no gains by the crossbench exc greens in macnamara. Though I here the ind is doing well in Whitlam. But who could be surprised when both the major parties have dropin candidates with no backbone. Inds il give a chance of winning Calare, Fremantle, Franklin, Bean, Canberra, Wannon, possibly Monash. I’ve got libs winning Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Bradfield. Polling suggests they might get close in Mackellar.

In other n3ws if you look at both leaders campaign stops. Albo is playing mainly defence while Dutton is mainly playing offence. I’ve got libs holding Sturt and Labor holding Boothby. I can’t see libs winning Boothby with Malanaukus this time around. Last newspoll breakdown has libs 57-43 in Qld. That puts Blair in play. I’m expecting around a 3% swing in Labor held seats there too.

Supposed to be getting another you gov poll this morning as well as another drop of the 20 seats redbridge is watching

I’ll be out of the country May 1-6 so I’ll have to watch on abc news(drag)

just under 21 hours until nominatiosn close. so far no word from the likes of Frank Carbone. also no lower hosue candidates from Lambie.

I’d expect the Coalition’s position to improve somewhat as the election draws closer, but it certainly hasn’t been a great start to the campaign.

Poll Bludger’s BludgerTrack (https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2025/bludgertrack/) is currently showing a 1.5% polling improvement for Labor since the budget.

State polling estimates are best taken with a large grain of salt, but what’s interesting is that all mainland states except Victoria are now showing a 2PP swing towards Labor since the 2022 election.

– AUS: 51.6% (-0.5% since 2022)
– NSW: 51.6% (+0.2% since 2022)
– VIC: 52.0% (-2.8% since 2022)
– QLD: 46.9% (+0.9% since 2022)
– WA: 56.1% (+1.1% since 2022)
– SA: 54.4% (+0.4% since 2022)

Assuming a uniform swing for each state, that’s a pretty dire result for the Coalition:
– LIB would likely only gain Aston and Bennelong (+ retain Menzies)
– ALP would potentially gain Canning, Moore and/or Sturt

Hard to read into independent chances, but Greens primary is down in Queensland and Labor’s is up, so that puts Brisbane in play. Significant One Nation gains across the country is another wildcard.

I am guessing One Nation primary to increase at least at the expense of UAP with the latest Palmer incarnation not being as popular. They may also take some primary off the LNP which may have some leakage to Labor via preferences

One thing that stood out to me in the latest Newspoll was that while the headline 2PP was 52-48, when respondents were forced to make a choice that increased to 53-47.

Which tells me that at the moment, the more undecided voters are leaning Labor, so unlike 2019 where the late undecided voters broke to the Coalition, if this continues the late undecided voters might break to Labor. Which makes sense since in both cases it would be the incumbent, and right now there’s so much global uncertainty that undecided voters are more likely to stick to a known commodity than lean towards change.

@bazza I agree. In 2022 the election was only 6 months after the last lockdowns ended in NSW & VIC. UAP lapped up a lot of that anti-lockdown, conspiracy theorist vote especially in Victoria.

This time around it feels like they’ve overstayed their welcome. They have no “hook” this election, other than that they’re trying to cash in on Trump at the worst possible time! So at least some of that vote will probably end up with One Nation.

@Trent:
Is conspiracy synonymous with myth?
Polling in the capitals appears dire for the Liberal Party, out in the sticks where there’s only 2 degrees of separation between everyone in town, many know or have heard of people who had an adverse reaction folowing their covid vaccination and whose health suddenly took a downturn.
Possibly one of the reasons Labor lost their Rockhampton, Mackay and Townsville seats at the State election?
Anyway, all 3 should’ve been high on Labor’s list of flippers, instead they’re only going hard in Leichhardt.

In Griffith, LNP is competing with 4 right of centre parties, Labor only has to contend with The Greens:
1. Max CHANDLER-MATHER
Queensland Greens

2. Lindsay BELL
Pauline Hanson’s One Nation

3. Renee COFFEY
Australian Labor Party (State of Queensland)

4. Dion HUNT
Gerard Rennick People First

5. Andrea CAMPBELL
Family First Party Australia

6. Anthony BISHOP
Liberal National Party of Queensland

7. Aaron HAYES
Trumpet of Patriots
On the late announcement of the LNP candidate, The Weekend Australian, p8, says:
“Yet curiously it took until this week for the LNP to preselecxt a candidate, … . [We] understand that the initial pick, a person of Jewish extraction, tapped to capitalise on criticism that The Greens embrace of the Palestinian’s cause in Gaza is anti-semitic, was scratched by the constitutional ban on dual nationals entering parliament. The LNP declined to comment, citing confidentiality around it’s preselection processes.”
Putting all that together, it’s likely Labor can win here on Liberal preferences, imo.

People keep writing off labor’s chances in
Bennelong…. they are wrong.
Especially since the liberal candidate has a few “troubles”

When can we expect htv cards

@Mick if he were an alp candidate it would be because people were racist…..

based on the tightening of polls im gonna say libs wont make the necessary gains to make even minority. im gonna say labor minority govt with a similar amount of seats

LIB gains – Ryan, Bennelong, Paterson, Robertson, McEwen, Gilmore, Aston, Bullwinkel, Curtin, Tangey, Lyons and Lingiari

LAB gains – Brisbane

GRN to be a chance in Richmond and Macnamara