The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
I have something planned for May 10 that means I won’t be near home – so I guess that is locked in now
Now seeing report of an errant Tweet reporting government in caretaker mode. Quickly deleted.
Just waiting on the date.
ABC was reporting the other day the government is going to call it Friday ( tomorrow) with leaks tonight to drown out the budget reply. Everything seems to be going that way. I think it will be the tenth. Holding it in a long weekend is unacceptable which rules out the third.
apparently Albos CoS or whatever has hastily posted on X that the government was in caretaker mode. the post was then deleted
Darcy – What’s the long weekend thing connected to the 3rd May?
I believe that Monday the fifth is a public holiday in Queensland and the NT. This makes it suboptimal. The third is also the date of three Tasmanian upper house elections which would need to be moved.
may the 3rd also coincides with school holidays and generally people are away and dont want to be spending their holiday voting, theres also the fact pre poll crosses over with anzac day and easter monday. 2 very important holidays where people dont want politicians using for political purposes
The TAS LC elections have just been moved to the 24th May.
https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/legislative-council/elections-2025/index.html
The public holiday is a thing for any choice of 3rd / 10th / 17th.
A 3rd event means the Monday following the event is a public holiday (ie. the AEC workforce doing counting and materials) in the two regions – there’s no obvious impact to the voting public. A 10th event means no prepoll on the second Monday. A 17th event means no prepoll on the first Monday. Pick your variant.
There’s no school holidays on 3rd May.
https://www.australia.com/en/facts-and-planning/when-to-go/australian-school-holidays.html
School holidays only impact the first week of prepoll for a 3rd May event. This might not be the most ideal but it’s not a dealbreaker. If you don’t wish to vote during this time, then you still have another week and election day.
I tend to think the holidays during prepoll week one mean it’s more likely to be the 10th, but… ?
but still people dont want to be voting the week they return and sometimes they are away abit longer and noones wants to be voting just as soon as they get back either
The inconvenience caused by having an election on one date or another is wildly overstated. People will vote when they vote.
@real talk. You are absolutely right, but the reality for people is not often reflected in the media. The issue is being called out of touch, or that it doesn’t pass the pub test (for a bunch of people that have probably never been in a real pub).
I was watching the Member’s Statements in the House of Reps earlier today. Judging by the speeches, specially from those on the Government side who may lose their seats, its very likely there will be an announcement tomorrow.
@patreon what members and what did they say?
Breaking news from The Age and SMH is that the PM is going to see the GG tomorrow for an election on May 3.
No surprise as that doesn’t clash with any holidays or other events plus you don’t wan to stretch out the campaign forever.
BREAKING NEWS: Albo has visited the Governor-General to call an election for May 3.
Breaking news, in the same sense that a gentle wave slowly drifting to shore from thousands of miles out to sea before finally tilting and easing into the sandy embankment is also “breaking”.
Election date set for 3 May. That means we have 36 days until election day. 36 days for either side to prove they should be in government. 36 days for Albo to clean up his mess, or 36 days for him to make it worse (the latter more likely).
You were doing so well, until the last sentence.
Who’s to say Dutton won’t have a shocker of a campaign, like Shorten, Latham, Hewson and Howard (1987)?
Agree Real Talk, I think neither side is favoured to win at this stage. I suspect the result could be like 2010 where the Coalition makes significant inroads but falls short, and they can’t get the crossbench support to govern in minority.
Whilst it may be humiliating to lose office, it is actually preferably for Labor to try and force Dutton to govern in minority. That way, they can at least ‘reset’ with a new leader and watch as the Coalition struggles in a weak position, similar to Victorian Labor post 2010.
The LNP will obviously target Labor on cost of living but doubt they’ll convince enough voters that they are the answer to get close to being in a position to form government. Labor should lose support but this will scatter to various parties and independents. Think we’ll see final seat numbers that are around 65 Labor, 60 LNP, 25 Crossbench.
Doubtful. I’m saying labor 67 coalition 68 crossbench 15 as a median result.
Seems improbable the crossbench will decline in numbers in this environment.
Libs will win Curtin possibly Kooyong and Goldstein Monash and Moore. It also seems improbable the crossbench will expand by so much. I can think of about of about 5 maybe but that’s it.
Your effectively saying libs will make next to no gains. And labor will lose a heap of seats to the crossbench
AEC starting to put some first info up.
“Hundreds of early voting centres will be open across the country progressively from Tuesday 22 April 2025.”
I hadn’t considered progressive openings – that’s how they’ll workaround the holidays galore in the first prepoll week. A cross section (however defined) will open on the Tuesday and then the rest on or by the Saturday / 2nd Monday.
Queensland federal redistribution deferred
https://www.aec.gov.au/media/2025/03-28.htm
As required by the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918, the scheduled redistribution of Queensland’s federal electorates has been deferred until after the next federal election.
The redistribution has been deferred as its anniversary date of 27 March 2025 falls within the last 12 months of the current parliament.
Queensland’s federal electorates had been due for a redistribution as it has now been seven years since the state’s last redistribution. Following the deferral, Queensland’s redistribution will now start within 30 days of the first meeting of the House of Representatives after the 2025 federal election.
@G
Interesting… It’s not clear to me from the statement how this interacts with the determination of number of seats a state is entitled to. Will they defer it again until that determination is made? Or does this effectively lock in Queensland having 30 seats?
Nicholas, I believe the 2014/15 ACT redistribution was a similar situation to the current Queensland one. It was a regular 7-year rule redistribution that was initially deferred due to the proximity to the 2013 election. Then they decided to defer it again until the entitlement determination in 2014 because there was a chance the ACT could be entitled to a 3rd seat, but that never occurred.
I suspect they will only defer the Queensland redistribution a 2nd time if the population statistics suggest the state has a chance of gaining a new seat.
Nothing here can over-ride the determination of entitlement.
It’s worth noting that the most recent NSW redistribution was set to commence based on the 7-year rule, but with the determination of entitlement just months away and NSW on the verge of 46 or 47 seats, they were able to postpone the redistribution until that was clear. If Queensland looks in danger of changing the number of seats I expect they’ll do the same.
Someone want to workout QLDs current quota?
According to the method outlined on the AEC page, this is what I have calculated:
NSW – 46.05
VIC – 38.05
QLD – 30.42
SA – 10.16
WA – 16.21
TAS – 3.10 (guaranteed 5 under the Constitution)
ACT – 2.57 (rounded up to 3)
NT – 1.38 (rounded up to 2)
Queensland would be rather close to getting 30.5 quotas, and rounding up to 31.
Apparently Malcolm Mackerras has released his prediction for the upcoming election with the result being a Labor minority government.
Seat Count:
ALP: 71
LNP: 65
GRN: 3
OTH: 11
Main points:
– Labor loses Aston, Bennelong, Chisholm, Gilmore, Lyons, McEwen and Paterson to Liberals
– Greens loses Ryan to LNP
– Teals will not expand in seats, but they won’t lose current seats either
– No mention of Bullwinkel or Calare, and the chart in the image below is hard to see
Seems like this image is the only way to access it online
https://i.postimg.cc/sDFb0skV/2e9608de-5bcb-4d98-bc21-a40c17b2d186.jpg
Queenslanders don’t deserve 31 seats, unless they become a bit more urbanised butvthe whole city feels like a country town.
With insightful contributions such as that Adam, I only regret that my vote is worth the same as yours.
Adam, whilst Brisbane as a city is relatively small (only about 500k more than Perth) and a distant 3rd compared to Sydney and Melbourne, Queensland has several large regional towns that are more significant than those in NSW or Victoria.
The two satellite cities of Brisbane (Gold and Sunshine Coasts) are much larger in population compared to those for Sydney or Melbourne (Newcastle, Wollongong, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo). Even the population of other regional towns/cities like Cairns and Townsville easily surpasses that for similar NSW or Victorian locations (eg Port Macquarie).
As a result, the state’s population is just 1 million less than Victoria and it is considered ‘decentralised’ with just over half the population living in the state capital (Brisbane).
Good that there’s finally some certainty around the date.
It’s shaping up to be a relatively uninspiring campaign from the majors. Neither Albanese or Dutton are great communicators when under pressure and neither seem to have a particularly ambitious policy platform. Recent momentum seems to be in Labor’s favour, but it will ultimately come down to whoever fumbles the campaign the least. Trump, as ever, will loom large in the background.
What is less certain is the state of the crossbench at the end of the campaign. It’s easy to see both Greens and Independents gaining and losing seats in different areas. Given the current political climate, the Greens should be poised to make gains, but seem to be struggling to make headway.
The main question is whether the Teal/Climate 200/Community Independent movement will continue to spread to other seats now that voters know the model can succeed. Dutton certainly hasn’t done himself any favours with this demographic but only time will tell if the Teal wave was simply an anti-Morrison thing, or if it’s now an established political movement.
Starting prediction:
– ALP: 68 (-10)
– LNP: 65 (+8)
– GRN: 5 (+1)
– IND: 12 (+1)
Qld growth has been stagnant for a while and as such I don’t believe it will get a 31st seat this time. I think both as and Vic are more likely to get another seat first.
Regarding the redistributions, it seems like it’d make sense for the AEC to defer the Queensland until the determination next year. My guess is that it’ll fall just short of the 30.5 quota threshold, but they’d rather not start it if there is the potential for it to tick over.
@Real Talk
Are your calculations based on the population clock numbers? I ended up with a slightly different result when I checked the other day using the quarterly figures.
If Queensland gains it’s 31st seat, it’ll be a tricky redistribution. There’s no obvious spot to put it as Queensland’s population growth is pretty evenly spread between the Sunshine Coast, the Gold Coast, and Ipswich.
One option: a new division centred on the Glass House Mountains between the high growth Fisher (Sunshine Coast) and Longman (Caboolture), but it would either have to extend west into the Somerset/Kingaroy/Nanango as a Bullwinkel-style hybrid division, or would have to push Brisbane over the river into Griffith.
Or place something around Ipswich. Either way, it’s going to be a significant change to the whole SEQ area.
@Abbas it would be north of the Brisbane river which has higher growth. Blair would be split between Somerset and ipswich
@Angas Indeed I did. I figured in the two minutes it took me to check the various figures that the figures would not become wildly inaccurate.
I would have thought SA’s growth relative to the rest of Australia wouldn’t be fast enough to warrant an extra division. They’ve lost three seats since the last expansion of parliament.
Prediction time at the start of the campaign I’ll change this as the campaign evolves though.
Mine:
ALP: 67
LNP: 71
GRN: 2 (Holding Griffith and Melbourne)
IND: 10 (Mayo, Goldstein, Wentworth, Warringah, Calare, Kennedy, Fowler, Wannon, Cowper and Fisher).
Yes I have an upset Indi loss and the more suspected losses of Kooyong and MacKellar. I am not specifying the exact seats switching ALP to LNP, but from the cross bench Indi, Curtin Ryan, MacKeller, Kooyong and Brisbane back to LNP. Clark to ALP.
– upset Indi loss
yeah ok, and Labor will win Melbourne
I wouldn’t assume that Queensland’s 31st seat will be north of the Brisbane River just because there’s been more growth there. Conceptually, it is possible for a high-growth area have all of its electorate contract in the same direction, with the new electorate arising from the void created by cleaving high-growth electorates away from those with stable growth. In the specific case of Queensland, it could be that the coastal regional seats shuffle south, which would absorb much of the population growth on the Sunshine Coast and northern Brisbane.
On balance, I would agree it is more likely that it will be north of the Brisbane River, especially given how redistribution committees seem to make decisions about new and abolished seats.
It does make me wonder if we’re going to have a situation like the last Victorian redistribution. In Victoria, there was a dilemma over where to cross the Yarra River, and there were no ideal solutions. Perhaps there may be a similar dilemma with the Brisbane River. I think there’s more to work with though – an electorate (likely a redrawn Ryan) crossing the Centenary and/or Walter Taylor bridges would be acceptable. There’s also precedent (though you have to go back a few decades) for putting Brisbane CBD and South Brisbane in the same electorate… but that might be too objectionable nowadays. And the problem can be rerouted through Maranoa.
And Clark sure as hell won’t be going to Labor for as long as Andrew Wilkie is contesting.
Also I’d say that Calare, Wannon, Cowper and Fisher will be hard for the Independent to break through, though the former three have the best chances. Indi won’t fall this cycle to the Liberals as Haines is quite entrenched there now. Mackellar doesn’t seem to be skewing further right, if anything it’s more left wing than it ever has, Curtin and Kooyong might be vulnerable but the demographics aren’t exactly Dutton friendly anymore like the Howard/Abbott days.
Here’s my starting prediction:
68 ALP (-10)
67 LNP (+10)
5 GRN (+1)
10 IND (-1)
ALP to lose 8 seats to LIB (mostly in VIC & NSW) and 2 seats to GRN.
GRN to gain 2 VIC seats from ALP but lose 1 QLD seat to LIB.
LIB to gain 8 ALP seats, 2 IND seats and 1 GRN seat but lose 1 seat to IND.
INDs to lose 2 seats to LIB but gain 1 seat from LIB (Bradfield).
ALP would easily form minority government with 74 ALP + GRN + Wilkie seats as a starting point and just need support from 2 of the remaining 9 INDs, whereas the Liberals would need support from 9 of the 10 INDs (all except Wilkie).
Alp will not get Wilkie he’s already stated no deals.
Albo will deal with the Greens as a matter of last resort and will go shopping with the teals and independent first