2025 federal election guide now live

@Darcy I believe that’s the week after. I think the 3rd of May is a bad idea because of school holidays and the 2 public holidays during prepoll.

Honestly, if one were concerned about prepolling during a public holiday, I’d simply cast my prepoll vote on a different day. Not really an issue.

@Real Talk unless it clashes with the Easter long weekend of course. But I think they’d try and avoid that.

As others have said it can’t be on Anzac Day or at Easter time as those are major public holidays. Probably wouldn’t be on Eid al-Fitr or Passover (Pesach) either as those are religious holidays.

id prefer it not to be on may 3rd as il be overseas for anexciting con that weekendin liverpool

I can see the Australian people being heartily sick of anything to do with politics by the time the election comes around – if it is May 17 that is another 8 1/2 weeks to go. Because there was so much speculation that it was going to be April 12 and it was delayed by the cyclone the campaign is just being dragged out and based on what happened in 1984 and 2016, long campaigns do not bode well for the party in power and they can lose control of the narrative.

Around the Parties: Citizens Party

It looks like, according to their website, that the Citizens Party will run the most candidates in a Fed Election since their under the old badge of Citizens Electoral Council (CEC) back in 2007. CEC hit a high of 106 Candidates in 2004 (96 HOR+10 Sen) and 95 Candidates in 2007 (81 HOR+14 Sen). Since then, it’s been between 16-28. Like most minor/micro parties, you get some serious perennial candidates. For the Citizens the honours list belong to the following:
-Jeff Davy (Murray ’07, ’10, ’13, Nicholls ’16, ’22) and back again in 2025 for Nicholls.
-Chris Lahy (Mallee ’07, ’13, ’16, ’19, ’22) and back again in 2025 for… you guessed it… Mallee!
-Trudy Campbell (Mallee [VIC] ’04, Solomon [NT] ’07, ’10, ’13, Sen NT ’16, ’19, ’22) and NT Senate 2025.
-Ann Lawler (Sen NSW ’07, ’16, ’19, ’22, Charlton [NSW] ’10, Hunter [NSW] ’13 and NSW Senate 2025.
-Jan Pukallus (Sen QLD ’07 ,’16, ’19, ’22, Griffith [NSW] ’10, Forde [QLD] ’13) and QLD Senate 2025.

That’s 34 federal campaigns across 5 candidates with Trudy into her 8th campaign!

Relative newcomers to the multi-candidate club:
-Robert Barwick (Batman [VIC] ’07, Sen VIC ’13) and VIC Senate 2025.
-Michael Phibbs (Tas Sen ’07) and Lyons [TAS] for 2025.
-Ray Wiliiams (Lyons [TAS] ’07, Sen TAS 19′) and TAS Senate 2025.

The CEC haven’t received many votes in the past (bar the miracle 1988 Barambah By-Election). I’d tip Calwell to be the electorate they receive the most votes in as the party seems to promoting their candidate heavily online and in person.

Outcome: No elected members

Since Dec 2024, I’ve been posting my predictions at the end of each month leading up to the Federal election to see how it’s changed over time.

The past few weeks polling seems to indicate at worst, that Labor’s decline has been stagnating or at best, a recovery for Labor’s polling. This prediction will be a slight improvement for Labor whilst reevaluating my predictions for the Greens. The reason why I’m posting this before the Budget on Tuesday is bc I feel like a Deficit Budget has the potential to kill this recent polling trend so I want to record this down before it does.

Here’s the March 2025 pre-Budget Prediction:
Seat Count:
ALP: 67 (-11); Maribyrnong included here
LNP: 69 (+15); Hinkler included here
GRN: 3
KAT: 1
CA: 1
WSC: 1 (+1); Dai Le retains Fowler
IND: 8 (-5); Moore included here

Specifics:
– LNP gain Lyons, Gilmore, Patterson, Robertson, Bennelong, McEwen, Aston, Chisholm, an Eastern Melbourne seat (Dunkley OR Bruce) and Lingiari from ALP
– LNP gain Bullwinkel (from nominal ALP hold)
– LNP gain Calare, Moore and Monash from IND
– LIB gain Ryan from GRN
– ALP gain Brisbane from GRN
– GRN gain Wills from ALP

Result: Toss-Up
Changes since Early Feb 2024:
– Tangney from LIB gain to ALP retain
– Macnamara from GRN gain to ALP retain
– Brisbane from GRN retain to ALP gain
– Changed Dunkley to “an Eastern Melbourne seat” (unsure which seat it specifically is and I don’t feel comfortable pinning it on Dunkley)
– Result changed from Liberal Minority Government to Toss Up

@Lurking Westie – largely agree with you here except Labor will hold Lyons and Aston (thanks to good candidate picks), the Greens will hold Brisbane and the Coalition will lose 1-3 more seats to independents. This gets me to ALP 68, LNP 64, GRN 4, OTH 14.

Interestingly, a lot of the LNP gains are seats that swung to the LNP in 2022 (Gilmore, Paterson, McEwen, Lingiari, Bruce), reflecting the long-term shift of the outer suburbs. Some other similar seats that may be future LNP targets include: Calwell (7% swing, 62% ALP), Gellibrand (2%, 61%), Gorton (4%, 60%), Hawke (3%, 58%), Holt (2%, 57%), and Scullin (6%, 66%), although given they are all in Vic this might have been one-off anti-Dan Andrews sentiment expressed at a Federal level.

*addendum to the above. I went back further and couldn’t believe 3 candidates had contested more.
-Trudy Campbell contest Scullin [VIC] in 2001
-Ann Lawler contested Hunter [NSW] in 1998, 2001 and 2004
-Jan Pukallus contest Dawson [QLD] in 2004.
And to the list Peter Flynn who is NT’s friendly familiar face running for NT Senate or Lingiari or Solomon since 2001.

To revise, those 6 candidates contested 48 Federal Elections between them with Jan, Trudy & Andy into their 9th and Ann into her 10th! I haven’t checked fully One Nation or other minor as closely, but surely there aren’t too many perennial candidates that have contested 10 Federal elections, let alone consecutively! That’s some feat. (Of course, ‘campaigning’ is different to being a paper candidate.)

Despite Citizen’s re-bagde from CEC and some well sounding points, it’s normally just the same 5-10 candidates each election putting their hands up. As well as many family members (Isherwood, Pukallus, Barwick,etc). 2025 does have some fresh faces but I honestly don’t see Citizens improving much and expect them to be bottom of the results for each electorate except Calwell. In Calwell, I’ll put them between 2-4% based on 2019 performance and higher profile candidate. And lucky to crack 1% in Lingiari, Solomon and Cunningham.

[EDIT: If anyone can find any perennial candidates for 10 or more elections in a row or overall, I’d love to hear it!]

Riccardo Bossi contests 2019 in the senate, 2022 in Greenway with a 2020 by-election in Eden-Monaro
Also managed a failed tilt at the NSW state upper house in 2023

@Lurking Westie, That’s a fair assessment.

@Blast2095, I actually have Calwell as now my dark-horse Victorian electorate to flip. Loss of sitting member personal vote, GRN candidate resigning, VS yet to choose a candidate (more focused on Cooper & Scullin it seems), long-term trends to affect the left side and ex-ALP Mayor contesting as an independent; there seems to be enough in the mix to affect the left side of the vote. PollbludgerTrack has an average of 4% swing against ALP on primary since election and we all saw Werribee earlier this year.

@Lurking Westie

There’s a part of me that hopes the election turns out that way or similar just for the entertainment value. The Coalition has the most seats (and presumably have won the 2PP), but how do they form government? Katter gets them to 70. The Greens will side with Labor. So that leaves the Coalition needing six of the 10 other crossbenchers – Le, Sharkhie, Wilkie, and seven Teal independents.

The overt hostility the Coalition has persistently displayed towards the Teal independents could cost them forming government.

Dutton doesn’t appear to be someone that would be open to any negotiating so he would be hard to support unless the LNP were only a couple short of 75

This item appeared in Media Watch Dog on Friday:
“Hendo’s fave session(he id referring to the Sydney Writers Festival) will take place at Sydney Town Hall on Saturday 24 May. Here it is:

Barrie Cassidy and Friends: State of the Nation

On this side of another election, where do we stand? Assess the state of Australian politics in this special post-election wrap-up edition of Barrie Cassidy’s panel discussion, featuring award-winning journalists Waleed Aly, George Megalogenis, Amy Remeikis and Niki Savva.”

Now as every reader knows,that is a possible election day-in fact the last unless there are to be separate elections for the house and senate.
Does Cassidy know something we don’t?

@Lurking
ALP: 67
LNP: 69
GRN: 3 (min 2)
KAT: 1
CA: 1
WSC: 1 (+1); Dai Le retains Fowler (Ive got them on a couple possible extras depending on where they field candidates if Carbone runs in McMahon he’ll win)
IND: 8 (-5); Moore included here (Spender, Stegall to retain. Ive got Libs winning Curtin and being competitive in Goldstein/Kooyong and Mackellar could be a wildcard and im not ready to write off Trenery in Indi but likely Haines retain. Bradfield could flip. Couple teals in ACT and in Franklin could be interesting.)

Specifics:
– LNP gain Lyons, Gilmore, Patterson, Robertson, Bennelong, McEwen, Aston, Chisholm, an Eastern Melbourne seat (Dunkley OR Bruce) and Lingiari from ALP. Il agree to all but Dunkley and Bruce these are outsiders for me.

– LNP gain Bullwinkel (from nominal ALP hold). agree
– LNP gain Calare, Moore and Monash from IND (Calare is a dark horse, while the Teal wont win Gee is a wildcard)
– LIB gain Ryan from GRN agree
– ALP gain Brisbane from GRN ive got this as a tossup between Lib and Lab
– GRN gain Wills from ALP im saying ALP hold.

Result: Toss-Up
Changes since Early Feb 2024:
– Tangney from LIB gain to ALP retain (50/50) at this stage but i think the libs can get it.
– Macnamara from GRN gain to ALP retain im giving this to the greens purely on the Anti-semitism issue and loss of jewish vote for labor but i wont rule out a surprise LIB or ALP victory here.
– Brisbane from GRN retain to ALP gain (50/50 ALP/LIB)
– Result changed from Liberal Minority Government to Toss Up agree
– Also not writing off ALP in Griifith and Greens/Coalition in Richmond.
– Whitlam will also be an interesting one.
– Pearce could be in play
– 3 of the 4 Hunter seats are also in play as well as a whole heap of VIC seats if the swing is on there
– Boothby and Sturt are up for grabs and Solomon could be interesting
– In QLD Blair, Moreton and Leichardt are theoretically inplay.

Word is Albo will call it Friday morning, with leaks on Thursday night to drown out oppositions budget reply.

“Word”, you say.

@john March 24, 2025 at 10:23 am
I’m considering removing “an Eastern Melbourne seat” from my prediction if polling gets better for Labor, but since the Resolve Poll and it’s state breakdowns seems to be delayed to this Sunday, I decided to keep all my VIC predictions unchanged.

Only reason I don’t have McMahon as a Western Sydney Community flip is mainly because Carbone hasn’t announced his candidacy, so putting McMahon as a WSC flip is like putting the cart before the horse.

As for the Teals, assuming that they do gain seats, the most likeliest imo are Bradfield, followed by Wannon, then Cowper. I’ve heard that Climate 200 is investing heavily in Monash, indicating they’re really confident there. Maybe Grey could have an outside chance given that iirc, Xenophon’s party was competitive there in 2016. Franklin could be one of the seats the Teals could win, and idk about what u mean for the “couple of Teals” in ACT. The only Teal in ACT is the candidate for Bean and afaik, Pocock recently cut ties with Climate 200 and is running alongside another IND candidate.

I do think Gee has a chance at retaining Calare, but until I actually hear what people in the electorate think of him (i.e., does he have a personal vote), I’m putting Calare as NATs regain by default. Another way I think Gee could win Calare is if Labor, Greens and Teal preferences flow to him.

Rapid fire responses to other seats:
– Iirc seat polling for Brisbane shows Labor winning Brisbane, and I don’t think Dutton would be endearing towards an Inner city electorate.
– I think the huge margin in Griffith and MCM’s high profile there will be hard for Labor to overcome this election, maybe they could get a swing against him but I don’t think it’ll be a ALP gain.
– Whitlam is a seat where I’m expecting Labor to cop a large swing, but retain due to strong Labor campaigning and weak Liberal candidate.
– Pearce is in play but given Labor’s popularity in WA I think they could hold it.
– Sturt could be a Labor gain if Labor’s polling recovery continues
– Both Boothby and Solomon are Coalition gains in the worst case scenario. Nicole Flint (who’s unpopular iirc) running in Boothby and Labor’s strong image in SA means that Labor could retain this seat.
– I agree that Blair, Moreton and Leichardt for theoretically in play. However, Neumann has a personal vote in Blair, Greens aren’t gaining seats in QLD if they can’t retain Ryan and Brisbane and the swing towards LNP this election might be enough for LNP to retain Leichardt.

The sums for Leichhardt vary in the absence of Warren Entscsch ( excuse bad spelling ) being the candidate .
Much easier for Labor to win

EXTRA NOTE: When I said “Both Boothby and Solomon are Coalition gains in the worst case scenario.” I meant a worst case scenario for Labor

I’m sorry but the notion that Carbone would win McMahon is risible. Fairfield makes up maybe 10% of the voters of that electorate and Bowen is no Keneally.

If you are looking for an Independent in the ACT – Bean is the only seat with a credible independent candidate – Jessie Price is getting a good flow of volunteers and has some funding from Climate 2000.

Guidance on Caretaker Conventions
https://www.pmc.gov.au/resources/guidance-caretaker-conventions
“The caretaker period begins at the time the House is dissolved.”

https://www.aec.gov.au/learn/election-timetable.htm
There is no fixed time for an election announcement and there is no fixed time for the disolution of the House. The first legal commitment is the writs must be issued within 0-10 days of said dissolution.

The House is due to sit from 7th-10th April – https://www.pmc.gov.au/resources/parliamentary-sittings and
the latest the date and writ can be issued is Monday 14th April.

Does that mean the Prime Minister could announce the election date but not actually dissolve the House at that time and therefore not move into the caretaker period?* I’m not suggesting it should or shouldn’t happen but fascinated by the timing scenario.

* 17th May Election announcment: post Budget to 7th April^
House sits: 7th-10th April.
House dissolved: soon after.
Writs issued:soon after that.
Election: 17th May.

^This is the theoretical end date; in this scenario, the practical “warm the car up for the drive to Yarralumla and get your electoral material to the South Gippsland printer” end date is when House Members know they’re returning to Canberra.

***
I did a look at dates. House dissolution date not formally noted.
https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/

2022: Sunday 10th April announcement. Writ issued +1 day.
2019: Thursday 11th April announcement. Writ issued +0 day.
2016: Sunday 8th May announcement. Writ issued + 8 days.
2013: Sunday 4th August announcement. Writ issued +1 day.
2010: Saturday 17th July announcement. Writ issued +2 days.
2007: Sunday 14th October announcement. Writ issued +3 days.
2004: Tuesday 31st August announcement. Writ issued +0 day. And so on.

https://www.communityindependentsproject.org/ci-mps-candidates

I’ve seen this website sometimes be posted on PollBludger showing which electorates will have a Teal candidate. It might help people inform themselves on the Teals (e.g., whether their electorate will have one, who’s running there and additional information relating to their campaign)

Recently it’s been updated to include Teal candidates in Corangamite and Chisholm, and given that Kate Hulett will run in Fremantle, it’ll probably update to include her too.

Also on an unrelated note, it seems like the only Teal target seats in 2022 that will not be contested by a Teal in 2025 will be Boothby, Page and Hughes.

Worth noting that the community independents listed on that site are not necessarily teals. For example, Helen Haines in Indi. Nicholls too had Priestly who wasn’t a teal and isn’t listed as running on that site.

Getting the impression that Calare and Wannon are firming as independent gains

@lurking yes i agree im just saying if he runs, he wins. Bradfield is the only one that could flip. Calare and Lib ill be coalition retains. ok but there is an Ind in canberra. too and they would benefit from libs and grn preferences.

@adda haines is a teal.

@mick no chance

@Adda March 25, 2025 at 1:49 am
Priestly in Nicholls isn’t listed as a Teal in 2022 (at least according to wikipedia) and afaik, hasn’t announced his candidacy for Nicholls. The fact that he’s not considered a teal and probably isn’t running explains why he isn’t listed on the site.

Pretty sure Helen Haines is a teal and associates with them.

@lurking she is I live in into. She will side with Labor in minority unless the Libs have a higher seat count.

latest newspoll state breakdowns March 7th
50-50 in NSW
51-49 in VIC
57-43 in QLD
54-46 in WA
50-50 in SA

I don’t believe there’s been any occasion where Haines called herself a teal, but I’ll concede that she hasn’t rejected it either. My point is that not necessarily the case that a “community independent” is a teal. Priestly is an example of that from last year – he rejected Climate 200 donations.

@adda if you lived in Indi youd know…

Though it seems like that site is excluding those who reject the term – for example, the Dickson independent candidate who said she isn’t a teal is excluded. I’m not across all the candidates but it does seem like a good proxy for “teals”. Presumably they have to accept being listed there and associated with the other candidates.

Andrew Gee is an independent who supported The Voice, so he must be a Teal too, right?

(I’m kidding.)

I’ve just had a post be approved (about 12 above this one) taking about a 17th May date and the sitting of the House.

@G on sky news this morning they said a labor insider has said that may 17th wont be happening that leaves may 3 and 10

John,don’t forget it can be May 24.

@sabena no it cant. it has to be by may 17th

Just skimmed a little of some news and saw another statement from the PM on election timing again stating his intention of going full term.

Which means the default date remains 17th May. As it’s always been.

Maybe 10th as a backup and 5 more days to call for the 3rd.

While the 12th April was a serious theoretical option, external to the east coast weather event and outside of “speculation”, I do wonder if it was a really really real option. Not that it matters much any more.

A 17th May election means no nationwide public holidays (Easter, Anzac Day) nor school holidays during the pre-poll period.

The sole (I think?) issue of a 17th May date is that there is a public holiday in NT and QLD on what would be the first day or prepoll Monday 5th May. I take it this would rule out prepoll opening everywhere.

Prepoll would open a day later, Tuesday 6th May but from recollection opening a day later has happened previously (maybe recently?), so it’s unlikely to be a dealbreaker.

A 10th May event moves the Monday 5th May to the second week of prepoll which is probably less ideal and it also means a bunch of days off in the week+ before prepoll which I’m sure the AEC probably wouldn’t love but neither of these things would be insurmountable problems.

You’d have to think the AEC is now itching, ready to go, waiting for the announcement.

I don’t think having one public holiday during the pre-poll period is an issue. Labour Day in NSW, ACT and SA was on the first day of the pre-poll period of the voice referendum in Oct 2023.

Like I’ve said elsewhere, if one wanted to cast a pre poll vote, they’d simply do so on one of the days that pre poll voting is open.

The average pre poll voter isn’t going to rebel because they can’t vote on a Monday and instead drop by the pre poll centre on a different day of the week.

A new poll has the libs ahead in Kooyong and goldstein

Albanese says election will be called ‘imminently’
Anthony Albanese says the upcoming federal election will be called “pretty imminently.”
Speaking on Triple M radio this morning, the prime minister said the election would be in May:
“And it’ll be called pretty imminently, I can assure you of that as well … I can confirm that I’m not calling it today, but I will call it soon.
I think that Australians want to get on with it. Certainly my caucus colleagues do …”
Albanese also spoke with ABC Radio Sydney this morning and was asked the same question, answering “it’ll be soon”.
The last day the election can be held is 17 May, which Albanese has ruled out. If the election was to be held on 10 May, it would need to be called by 6 April to allow for the 33-day window.

From theguardian.com blog just now.

***
This is news. PM now saying words like soon and imminently. I wasn’t aware 17th May had been ruled out – has anyone seen a quote about this? If 17th is out, then the House will likely not return.

A call in the forseeable future suggests possibly this Sunday, for……… um… the 10th??

@G if he calls it this sunday it could be for either the 3rd or 10th. i posted yesterday that sky news had reported a labor insider stating it would not be the 17th

I think it will be this weekend.

https://app4.vision6.com.au/em/message/email/view.php?id=1567173&a=58639&k=yD2XDAc9SK8NQe4vUcUSHGP51SZm2YPKhfkES-Ad3wg

TAS LC elections moved to 24th May, “The revised date ensures that Legislative Council polling day does not clash with a possible federal election.”

Moving the TAS election totally out of all Federal date windows makes a large hurdle for a 3rd May event vanish.

Now it’s just the toss up of varying combinations of holidays.

Some very explicit reporting now suggesting a call tomorrow (Friday) morning.

If turns out to be accurate, it would now make 3rd May a (slight) favourite for the first time.