2025 federal election guide now live

Well done Ben!

Great work, Ben.
Given all the commentary on the Corio page/profile regarding the size of Parliament (and potentially increasing it), is it worth creating a specific “size of Parliament” page/profile? Or is it there and I just missed it?

I mean I’ve written blog posts on every topic, including that one. But I don’t usually make posts just to create space for comments. So the only tool I have is to shut it down for being off topic which I haven’t wanted to do.

Happy New Year, everyone!

The upcoming federal election has been on my mind. Below are my early predictions for the outcomes in seats I consider key to this election:

Aston: Coalition Gain
Barton: Labor Retain
Bennelong: Coalition Gain
Blair: Labor Retain
Blaxland: Labor Retain
Boothby: Labor Retain
Braddon: Coalition Retain
Bradfield: Independent Gain
Brisbane: Greens Retain
Bullwinkel: Coalition Win
Bruce: Labor Retain
Calare: Coalition Gain
Casey: Coalition Retain
Chisholm: Labor Retain
Corangamite: Labor Retain
Cowper: Coalition Retain
Curtin: Coalition Gain
Deakin: Coalition Retain
Dickson: Coalition Retain
Dobell: Labor Retain
Dunkley: Labor Retain
Fowler: Independent Retain
Gilmore: Coalition Gain
Goldstein: Independent Retain
Gorton: Labor Retain
Griffith: Greens Retain
Groom: Coalition Retain
Hasluck: Labor Retain
Hawke: Labor Retain
Holt: Labor Retain
Hunter: Labor Retain
Kooyong: Independent Retain
Leichhardt: Coalition Retain
Lingiari: Coalition Gain
Longman: Coalition Retain
Lyons: Coalition Gain
Mackellar: Independent Retain
Macarthur: Labor Retain
Macnamara: Labor Retain
Macquarie: Labor Retain
Maribyrnong: Labor Retain
McEwen: Coalition Gain
Menzies: Coalition Retain
Moore: Coalition Retain
Moreton: Labor Retain
Nicholls: Coalition Retain
Parramatta: Labor Retain
Paterson: Coalition Gain
Pearce: Labor Retain
Reid: Labor Retain
Richmond: Labor Retain
Robertson: Labor Retain
Ryan: Greens Retain
Shortland: Labor Retain
Sturt: Coalition Retain
Swan: Labor Retain
Tangney: Labor Retain
Wannon: Coalition Retain
Watson: Labor Retain
Wentworth: Independent Retain
Werriwa: Coalition Gain
Wills: Greens Gain

Please let me know your thoughts. Happy to explain my thinking on behind any seat 🙂

@AKD – I noticed you didn’t include certain seats in your predictions (e.g. Solomon, Eden-Monaro). Are these seats not included for in your eyes being considered ‘too close to call’?

@James (irelxnd) – That’s correct, I think they will be easily retained. Blaxland and Watson, very safe seats predicted to be retained, are only included due to the Gaza factor 🙂

@Kent Davidson

Why do you think Liberal’s will gain Bennelong? And if they gain Bennelong, why do they lose Bradfield, right next door? I see these two results happening together being quite unlikely.

I’m not willing to write off,
McEwen, it’s a complicated seat and doesn’t vote in unison and Rob Mitchell has a long history of holding on. Bennelong, has a bunch of suburbs moved in from North Sydney that seem more socially progressive will most likely be spooked by Peter Dutton portions on just everything. I don’t see a seat like Bennelong returning to the LNP when the rest of the North side isn’t backing the LNP also North Sydney was a target for Labor in 2022.
Bullwinkel, Labor seem to be fairing well in WA, however I can see this seat going to LNP but I personally feel it’s still a tossup.
Moore, there is an outside chance Labor could win on preferences simply because an incumbent is running here as an Independent and who know how the preferences will flow. I still think its likely the LNP to hold.
Sturt, Labor seem to fairly well in South Australia and the state Labor government is very popular while the Liberal opposition are useless and seem to be a drag down the Liberal at both levels which could easily spill over into the federal election.
Menzies, as Labor seems to be throwing a lot of resources at this seat so that would suggest they might have a chance to win here plus the changing demographics don’t benefit the LNP here. It’s also worth noting that the state Liberal opposition seem to have a consistency of infighting and seeming how divided the party is it quite possible for these problems to flair up again.
For Paterson, Hunter and Shortland, I can see all three of these seat flipping over as Labor seem to be struggling with sort of demographic and Labor’s positions on a lot of different policies will have turned off a lot of voters through here.

@ AKD other then the ones i have left or commented on i largely agree with that assessment.

Barton: Independent could possibly run and win
Blair: Agreed but the only thing that saves is Neumanns personal vote, coalition gain in 2028 due to redistribution and his likely dumping
Blaxland: Independent could possibly win
Boothby: Id give Coalition a minute chance but other then that agree
Bradfield: This will depend on the candidate selected by the Liberals to be honest
Brisbane: Three way race between Liberals, Labor and Greens in my opinion
Bullwinkel: Could you be specific as the Nationals and Liberals are not in a coalition here so i assume you mean Liberal gain?
Bruce: Liberals outside chance if Dutton win majority hes probably won this
Calare: I wouldnt wrte off Gee but i think thats right.
Chisholm: 50/50 in my opinion
Corangamite: Liberals seem to be targeting this seat
Dunkley: Wouldnt write off a Liberal gain if theres a landslide
Goldstein: Liberals a small chance in my opinion
Hawke: Seems to be a liberal target though
Holt: Minute Liberal chance but 2028 more likely
Hunter: Outside chance of a coalition win here
Kooyong: Liberals within a chance
Macarthur: Seems to be some rumblings about this seat but it never would of made my list
Macnamara: I think this could go Green due to the Gaza issue. If Burns loses key Jewish votes hes gone.
Macquarie: Liberals would be sniffing around here but i think 2028 is more likely
McEwen: Coalition Gain one that i tentatively agree on actually.
Parramatta: Coalition could upset
Richmond: Will be a close contest if the Liberals contest. If the Greens make the 2cp v Nationals it could be interesting to see where that Labor vote goes.
Robertson: If the liberals dont win here they probably arent in government.
Ryan: Liberal gain in my opinion
Shortland: Liberals in the hunt over offshore wind farm policy but 2028 will be better for them.
Sturt: I think so too. Incumbency and being opposition will help.
Tangney: Coalition gain in my opinion
Watson: Agree but only because the Independent has had controversy and there is no way the Libs will preference him.
Werriwa: I think so to
Wills: I think Khalil will just survive thanks to Liberal preferences

@High street in Bennelong the redistribution has benefited the Libs and they have a really good candidate. In bradfield the liberal memebr is retiring and the Independent is running again but i think it will be close and the Liberals can get the right candidate they should hold also the redistribution added territory from neighbouring North Sydney.

@spacefish McEwen is vunerable because of demographics. it experience a 2% swing to the Liberals in a year where Scomo and the Liberals hit rock bottom across most of Australia Victoria most of all. that and the fact the wheels seem to be coming off the state government a 3.3% swing within the margin of expected swing in Victoria.

Paterson i expect to flip but Hunter nd Shortland are another thing. But i wont be surprised if they flip but if they dont they likely will in 2028.

Spacefish
Menzies?? Labor have only had a candidate for two weeks. Keith Wolohan has been working the new areas for months and now has name recognition. Every dollar or volunteer they put here they are not putting somewhere else. Trying to save Aston, Chisholm and Wills would seem a higher Labor priority. I live in Deakin, Labor seem to be running dead here even though they just failed to win last time.

Redistributed,
I’m personally super myself as I would have thought Keith Wolohan would be difficult to topple but if you look at where Labor is campaigning Menzies seem to be getting targeted quite a bit.

“Surprised

@redistributed thats because notional or not its technically now a labor seat so they are trying to hold the vote they had last time.

Interested in everyone’s opinion on timing. The WA State Election is March 8, which rules out that weekend and almost certainly two either side. The RBA is meeting on Apr 1. If there is any chance of a cut, Labor will almost certainly wait. Then there is April 19 (Easter long weekend) and April 26 (ANZAC Day long weekend). These dates, especially given school holidays, are highly unlikely. So for me this leaves…

Mar 29 – 5% chance
April 5 – 10% chance
Apr 12 – 25% chance

May 3 – 20% chance
May 10 – 20% chance
May 17 – 20% chance

@blast i hear March 8 is in high speculation. and theres concern among State Labor they will choose that date. the reason being they dont want the budget held because it will be bad whcih is slated for MArch 27 and in late february they 2035 emmisions tagrets are coming out and that is likely gnna hurt them during a col crisis. and there has never been a february election. if it is held on march 8 the WA election will have to be postponed to March 15 or to another date by agreement by the premier and opposition (Currently Nationals Leader Shane Love)

West Australia will be 8th March 2025
Aust probably May 2025 as normal

Assumptions mean nothing. Just because Labor just won in 2022 does not
Mean such a seat will be lost.
I still think Bennelong is most effectived by the fact that John Alexander is now retired. In his absence the liberal position I’d at least 5% weaker..

@mick still the seat is now a notional liberal seat which means labor has to win it again

and while alexander may have held it the overwhelming factor was the chinese vote and the anti-morrison swing

Blast, I would think there is zero chance of a rate cut, at least none that would help Labor. Rates go up to cure inflation and come down to cure unemployment, so the only way for there to be a rate cut is a significant increase in unemployment.

Any rate cut is gonna come too late to have any effect on CoL before the election

Outside of Easter and ANZAC Day, are other long weekends a no-go for the election date?

March 10 is a public holiday for 4 jurisdictions (Adelaide Cup Day, Canberra Day, Eight Hours Day in Tasmania and Labour Day in Victoria), so that may be another reason to avoid March 8.

Similarly, May 5 is May Day in the Northern Territory and Labour Day in Queensland.

It would put a bit of pressure on the AEC to complete the senate count, but May 24 could also be in play (the 2022 election was on May 21 with the writs retured on June 24). The RBA have a decision scheduled for May 20 so they might like to roll the dice on that however unlikely a rate cut is at this stage.

Antony Green did a new post about 3 weeks ago on election timing – https://antonygreen.com.au/will-australia-have-its-first-february-election-and-what-about-the-wa-election-date/

WA State Election being a major logistical factor. Antony offers a Federal election:
* 12th April with no budget
* in May after a budget
* in February with a date announced in January and no March budget

Whilst Labor did campaign relatively hard and had a great candidate in North Sydney in 2022, it was not a target seat. So all that area (Hunters Hill and Lane Cove Council, and a bit of Willoughby) added from North Sydney, has never been in a marginal seat, never had a sitting Labor MP and never had a marginal seat campaign where the Labor candidate has been very active – history shows that this make a difference. Plus Laxale will get a Sophomore surge across the entire rest of the seat that has come from the old Bennelong.

I’m in agreement with Spacefish. There is no evidence that any northern Sydney seat will like the look of Dutton more than they liked Morrison – indeed, it could be worse.

@Abbas from what I’ve read officially the last possible date is May 17th

theres specualtion of an April 12 election date

Would they really do an election on the first day of the NSW school holidays?

The way Courier Mail is puffing Labor today on the front page- Campaign Win- $7.2 Bil for Highway – Bruce to be fixed
Albo will promise anything to get a win – he’ll be calling it for February, imo.
As I predicted, Labor has identified Leichhardt, Herbert, Dawson, Hinkler and Capricornia as targets.

im tipping an election announcmendt within the next 3 weeks. no way albo & co are giving up their holidays just to tour australia. hes softening people up for an election campaign that is coming soon rther then later.

on another note albos plan to warn people against the coaltions nuclear policy is free advertising for dutton and the LNP.

There only has to be around 5 weeks notice so I think he’ll announce it right around the WA election on 8 March so that the two campaigns don’t clash, and also he’d be hoping for a February rate cut prior to calling it too. Not that it will take effect for anybody yet, but it’s a good news story that’s an indication of a turning point.

@trent nope im saying he’ll call it before that. campaigns need to be for a minimum of 33 days.

Anyone else see Albo’s plan for 4 year terms
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/albanese-calls-for-bold-change-to-australia-s-elections/ss-AA1x5Ge5#image=1

@clab would require a referendum and i think people have had enough of that for the time being

To have 4 year terms is good government. If the liberals wanted good government they would endorse this.
But sadly they want another win.. so I bet they oppose.

4 year terms would make for better public policy formulation as it would allow for more time for both formulation and bedding down of new policies. Section 28 lays down the term of the Reps so it would need to be changed by referendum and Section 13 which dictates the Senate term and rotation would also need to be changed. Presumably to change each section would require a separate question. Imagine if Section 28 was successful and S13 not – we would only have simultaneous elections every 12 years. Great for the psephological nerds like us here but not great for stable government.

Fixed four year terms are a good idea and they have bipartisan backing but I doubt another referendum is a good idea at this time. Wait at least five years.

@mick it wouldn’t matter any change would require a referendum. And any change would not take effect until after 2025. I suppose Albo could run the referendum in tandem with the election to marginalize the cost. The last referendum to introduce 4 year terms failed.

@Nethrer if they ran it concurrent with the election they could reduce the fallout but it would be a distraction from the election and I doubt their is any real time to come up with the proper wording and debate and it would also require parliament to be recalled before and election. So I don’t think it will happen this time. If Labor get rejected in minority it might be debated to happen at the 2028 election but that will be too late to help Albo.

@Darth Vader I’m talking about the monetary aspect of it. Referendums are bloody expensive, hence why the last one costed over $360 million and it was all a waste because it failed so badly.

The Australian economy isn’t good enough at the moment. If we were in the Howard years we could hold heaps of referendums because we weren’t in debt and didn’t have inflation or high taxes.

Albanese wouldn’t want 4 year terms when he’s goi g into opposition.
American Parliament has 2 year terms for the house and a third of the Senate is elected on the day. No excuse for 4 year terms here.

@NP,
I agree and I don’t think the Australian public have the apatite for another referendum in fact they should have done that instead as it would’ve most likely got through.

And yet NP, despite the Republic Referendum in ’99 – which he was forced to promise – the Howard years had precisely Zero Referendums. And so did the ATM years. So waiting until “the economy” is better is an idiotic link to make (the budget and the economy are two entirely different things anyway but we will leave that aside for now).

Just a final point, we certainly did have inflation in the Howard years, and it was a high taxing Government! Inflation doesn’t make it hard to pay for things – it simply erodes the value of savings.

@Np you mean $450 million. When they are held in conjunction with an election the spend is negligible. A referendum is run the same way as an election is where the arc needs to hire staff etc etc. if an election is already being run at the same time all they are doing is printing an extra piece of paper.

Maybe some advertising etc but the human cost is already being spent along with materials and other stuff needed. So they are really only printing some more paper and a few ballot boxes. Maybe some extra counting hours. But that’s it