The Australian federal election will be held at some point in the first half of 2025, and I have now completed my guide to all 150 electorates.
I published guides for 50 seats in mid-2023, but electorates in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia had to wait for the conclusion of redistributions. These redistributions concluded around the time of the Queensland election, and I’ve now finished all of these guides.
We are also part way through a minor redistribution of the two federal electorates in the Northern Territory. The likely outcome seems certain, so I have updated those two seat guides to reflect the proposed boundaries.
The guide also features profiles for the eight Senate contests.
Most of the guide is an exclusive to Tally Room members – those who donate $5 or more per month via Patreon. I’m going to be increasing the price for membership from $5 to $8 per month from the start of January, but if you join now you can lock in the lower price going forward.
I have unlocked a handful of profiles as a free sample. I’d already unlocked Dickson, Lyons and the Queensland Senate race, but now I’ve added the new seat of Bullwinkel, along with Gilmore and Macnamara.
You can find links to each profile from the guide front page. There is an alphabetical seat list, a list by state, a pendulum and a map. I’ve also posted the map below:
One final note: it will be a big ongoing job to track candidate lists. For now I haven’t added any candidates to the new 100 profiles, but I will be doing an update of my list over the course of the next week, and they’ll be added to profiles then.
John – If you were the person with the choice of when to call the event, it seems likely you would consider every possible date. Why would you not. Nothing wrong with that. He’s very likely considered going sooner but there was never an announcement, so it’s irrelevant.
“hes just been trying to keep people guessing.” He’s really not. He’s said multiple times, he’s looking to go full term and we’re just about there. The only people guessing are people on internet forums and newspaper article writers based on “sources”. South Gippsland newspaper had the scoop until they didn’t.
The Budget remains scheduled for delivery in 3 weeks – that’s fine. If the event is called before then, that’s fine too.
I mean, if this was any Liberal PM sitting in the PM’s chair, John would regard all this as a masterful, Machiavellian ploy, a gambit played to perfection, frustrating the opposition and keeping the punditry at large guessing. But since it’s a Labor PM, all allocades go out the door from John. Instead, he’ll tell you its a sign of weakness by a desperate leader. Let’s check in in three years when Dutton has the same decision to make.
Duttons
Return to work place policy
Public servant 36k cut
Don’t look popular
Really Mick Q?
What pray would be unpopular about reducing public servants?
And the rest of us are being forced to return to work, why not public servants?
Regarding the election date, there’s talk from different sections, including the mainstream media, that it’ll be 12 April. Let’s see if news breaks on Sunday. ABC reports that Cyclone Alfred (that’s heading for Southeast QLD and northern NSW) could force Albo to delay the election.
Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918
Compilation date: 21 February 2025
https://www.legislation.gov.au/C1918A00027/latest/text
Part XVI: The Polling
240A Temporary suspension of polling
The Electoral Commissioner may temporarily suspend the polling for a period if the Electoral Commissioner is satisfied that the suspension of polling during that period is justified because of:
(c) storm, tempest, flood or an occurrence of a similar kind; or
(f) any other reason related to:
(i) the safety of voters; or
(ii) difficulties in the physical conduct of the voting.
241 Adjournment of polling
The Electoral Commissioner may adjourn the polling from day to day in any case where polling is interrupted by:
(c) storm, tempest, flood or an occurrence of a similar kind; or
(f) anything else related to:
(i) the safety of voters; or
(ii) difficulties in the physical conduct of the voting.
242 Adjournment in other cases
If from any cause any polling booth at a polling place is not opened on polling day the Electoral Commissioner may adjourn the polling for a period not exceeding 21 days, and shall forthwith give public notice of the adjournment.
243 Voting at adjourned polling
Where for any reason the polling is adjourned at any polling place, those electors only:
(a) who are enrolled for the Subdivision for which the polling place is prescribed; or
(b) who are, by virtue of section 235, entitled to vote as electors of that Subdivision;
and who have not already voted, shall be entitled to vote at the adjourned polling at that polling place.
***
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_departments/Parliamentary_Library/Research/Quick_Guides/2022-23/WhenIsTheNextElection2022
There is no constitutional requirement that House of Representatives and state senator elections be held simultaneously. However, they are generally held together to avoid the duplication of costs and voter inconvenience.
The election for the House of Representatives must… be held by 27 September 2025.
…the latest date for the next half-Senate election would be Saturday 17 May 2025.
As House of Representatives and half-Senate elections are usually held together, both the earliest and latest days for an election would be dictated by the half-Senate election. As such, the earliest date for a simultaneous election would be Saturday, 3 August 2024 and the latest possible date would be Saturday 17 May 2025.
@raue the abcs anthony green will be retiring as their election analyst after the federal election. maybe you should put your hand up for the job? you are one of the top 3 election analysts and anthony green has named you as one of 2 prominent election observers
also as of yesterday the nt redistribution is now finalised and the new boundaries will be in effect this election
Labor’s vote is said to have crashed from 36% to 15%, putting them third behind the Liberals on 41% and the Nationals on 22%. Yet there is little sign of this implied swing of around 25% in Tangney, where the Liberal vote edges up from 40% to 41% and Labor is down only from 38% to 35%, suggesting Labor to be still competitive in a seat it holds on a 2.6% margin. The poll had a combined sample of 2529, and included further questions on “the Greens’ policy to ban new gas projects” and whether “the natural gas industry was important to WA’s economy”. UPDATE: The Australian further reports two-party leads for the Liberals of 65-35 in Curtin and 56-44 in Tangney, the latter being quite a bit more than I would have thought based on the primary votes.
Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports a minister saying there is “not a f**king chance” of a budget being brought down on March 25, with the popular view within the government remaining that an April 12 election will be called immediately after the Western Australian state election on Saturday week.
The sample is poisoned by the negative statements re the greens.
Each sample is 800. So higher margin of error. Forgot the maths maybe 9% margin of error. Hard to believe.
Usually these polls post the headline results collected before they then test their messaging and turn it into a push-poll but it sounds to me like those who commissioned the poll got what they wanted, which probably wasn’t the truth…
i should of put that fisrt part is about Bullwinkel not australia as a whole.
Looks like albos only chance to avoid a budget is to have an extended campaign longer then the 33 days or risk voter backlash by calling it in the middle of a cyclone
The ABC is reporting, from a source close to the PM, that the government will be handing down a budget and holding the election in May.
Good to have the NT redistribution finalised which would have been a factor in event timing, even if a modest one.
https://www.aec.gov.au/redistributions/about/future.html
TAS delayed, QLD to be delayed (27 March 2025), ACT and SA from July, so 4 redistributions to come later in the year.
The last current electoral event of crossover remains the periodic TAS Legislative Council elections “expected to be Saturday 3 May 2025.” https://www.tec.tas.gov.au/legislative-council/elections-2025/index.html
Albo on 7.30 on ABC ruled out an April election.
But how will they deliver a budget when the treasurer is still filling sandbags in Logan? That’s likely just misinformation. Just before the budget the PM will go to the GG and call and election with a loner then the minimum 33 days. If he doesn’t he’s gonna be delivers rivers of red.
@ john
Don’t think it is misinformation
May election.
They can have a may election without delivering the budget.
I sus left what gains the libs could have hoped for in qld have now been washed away by Alfred. Similarly Elliot should hold Richmond now
@ john
Maybe alp gains in qld
https://www.fairwork.gov.au/employment-conditions/public-holidays/2025-public-holidays
Saturday 3rd May as an election date presents some obvious logistical issues in terms of prepoll (Monday 21st April to Friday 2nd May).
Monday 21 April – Easter Monday
Friday 25 April – Anzac Day
Saturday 3rd May – TAS Legislative Council elections (expected)
On top of the whole Easter block in lead up to Monday 21st.
On top of that NT and QLD also have holidays on Monday 5th May, which ALSO cuts over both 10th May and 17th May prepolls. The NT / QLD Monday 5th dates impact something whichever May date is chosen.
10th May event is a reasonable second option but less ideal, as you’re still getting the Easter-Anzac break period at the pointest end of preparations.
Logistically, this likely puts 17th May as the cleanest option with prepoll opening Tuesday 6th May.
@John March 8, 2025 at 8:37 am;
How is that? Last time a cyclone hit SEQ and caused major flooding [Jan 1974], Labor lost 2 seats here at the May 18 1974 Election.
Electoral situation was similar, bumbling Labor Government in Canberra, competent Coalition Government in Brisbane.
Of the 2 that fell, Lilley only needed a 1.0% swing, but Wide Bay swung 6.8% and Labor never won it again.
That was 4 months apart though this will be 2 months max. Still we will see what happens in the aftermath
news poll should be dropping tonight with quarterly state breakdowns
https://www.australia.com/en/facts-and-planning/when-to-go/australian-school-holidays.html
TERM 1 SCHOOL HOLIDAYS 2025
Australian Capital Territory: 14 April to 29 April
New South Wales: 14 April to 24 April
Northern Territory: 7 April to 14 April
Queensland: 7 April to 22 April
South Australia: 14 April to 28 April
Tasmania: 14 April to 28 April
Victoria: 7 April to 22 April
Western Australia: 14 April to 28 April
A 3rd May event hits a whole bunch of school holidays for prepoll.
I doubt it will be 3rd may due to that reason and Tasmania elections which also go through holidays there. I’m saying may 10th.
Having elections around school holidays has the potential to be a disaster. Many of the experienced Presiding Officers/ officers in Charge/ AEC temporary employees are teachers. In City areas there are white collar Workers who can be trained up quickly but having been an OIC in a miniming town booth many moons ago I relied on teachers.
School Holidays make forecasting ballot paper demand difficult. It is relatively easy to move ballot papers from one city booth to another but try getting ballot papers from Atherton to Cairns or vice- versa. It can be done but it is difficult. In Longman they had one bloke moving ballot papers from
Booth to booth. But Try this in Kennedy and you need an aircraft.
Ian confident that AEC can do this without risk to the validity of the election but it is getting more difficult for justice to be seen to be done. The American conspiracy ideology is creeping into Australia.
Andrew, the last time I voted (qld election), the ballot paper was printed. Is that not an option for federal elections?
Printed, as in, I told the officer which electorate I was in, and they printed the ballot paper in front of me.
(Of course all ballot papers are printed!)
Yes that does happen but he’s talking about in the same district. They are only printed if you’re outside the division to my knowledge. If it’s within the same area no. Also they only have a limited amount of printable ballots. I’d imagine. There’s also the fact some people travel and don’t want to be spending their holidays voting. And then there’s the issue of people who go camping etc where there aren’t polling booths
As an ex public servant… most work hard
If they cut it will be those who do processing work such as age pension claims and variations. This is not a panacea for finding funds it is ill thought out.
Same with compulsory return to work.. this allows some people with child care responsibilities to still work. AS long as the work is done does it matter if done at home or the workplace.
Processing of dss claims are all transferred to being on line and are ideally suited for at home work.
so what its about productivity. your paid to work 9-5. they have to deal with child care the same way people who cant work home have to. people who work in spermarkets cant work from home. it was a temporary measure during covid. if you want to work from home get start your own business and do it that way.
Isn’t it funny that you can rephrase just about any advancement in worker’s rights in the same way, as if it’s a privilege and not a right…
“If you want to have flexible hours start your own business and do it that way”
“If you want to have paid parental leave start your own business and do it that way”
“If you want working holidays start your own business and do it that way”
“If you want to have a set eight hour day start your own business and do it that way”
seems like the LNP cruelty to workers doesn’t just extend to trying to pay them nothing. Also seem to want to make their working conditions as inflexible and uncomfortable as possible
It’s not about productivity, it’s about virtue signalling about not letting public servants have it too good.
Yes people have the same need for child care, but working from home allows people to adjust hours, and reduces commute time. It’s really not hard to understand how it makes people’s lives easier.
In my experience working hybrid can work great for lots of jobs, and there are times where a public service agency may find it best to hire someone fully remotely. It should not be a top-down instruction from the prime minister regardless of circumstances.
And yeah there are jobs that can’t be done from home but that doesn’t mean that it can’t work for others. Different jobs have different requirements. If I was a teacher I’d need to plan my breaks to fit a particular schedule but I don’t need to do that because I’m not a teacher.
Those who have jobs that can’t be worked from home aren’t gaining anything from others being forced back to the office. Indeed it might make their lives more difficult by putting more cars on the road and filling up public transport.
It’s a pretty transparent attempt from CBD businesses and those with interests in commercial real estate too use the force of the state to prop up those businesses.
W
@adda if there was no covid lockdowns people would never have started to work from home. and would still be in the office. if your employer wants you in the office you go to the office. all those things you just men tioned are privileges not rights
anyone seen the redbridge seat polling results?
i cant find the actual seats except that its 13 labor seats and 7 coalition seats and what margins they are between. so from that we can extrapolate that the following seats are being polled. Bennelong, Gilmore, Lindsay and Corangamite. Ive also seen specific mentions of Tangey and Bullwinkel. so the rest come from the following seats. and given they said it was a nationwide poll from all states and territories we can assume likely Bass and Lyons in Tasmania, Sturt and Boothby in SA, probably Lingiari in the NT.
Labor Coalition
0.4 ALP Menzies (VIC)
0.9 ALP Lyons (TAS) 0.5 LIB Sturt (SA)
1.7 ALP Lingiari (NT) 0.9 LIB Moore (WA)
2.2 ALP Robertson (NSW) 1.2 LIB Canning (WA)
2.6 ALP Paterson (NSW) 1.4 LIB Bass (TAS)
2.8 ALP Tangney (WA) 1.4 LIB Casey (VIC)
3.3 ALP Boothby (SA) 1.7 LIB Dickson (QLD)
3.3 ALP Chisholm (VIC) 2.6 LIB Banks (NSW)
3.3 ALP Bullwinkel (WA) 2.9 LIB Monash (VIC)
3.6 ALP Aston (VIC) – by-election 3.1 LIB Longman (QLD)
3.7 ALP Parramatta (NSW) 3.4 LIB Bonner (QLD)
3.8 ALP McEwen (VIC) 3.4 LIB Leichhardt (QLD)
4.8 ALP Hunter (NSW) 3.5 LIB Hughes (NSW)
5.2 ALP Reid (NSW) 3.8 NAT Flynn (QLD)
5.2 ALP Blair (QLD) 4.2 LIB Forrest (WA)
5.3 ALP Bruce (VIC) 4.2 LIB Forde (QLD)
5.3 ALP Werriwa (NSW) 4.4 LIB Petrie (QLD)
6.0 ALP Shortland (NSW) 4.7 LIB Durack (WA)
6.1 ALP Eden-Monaro (NSW) 5.5 LIB Bowman (QLD)
6.3 ALP Macquarie (NSW)
6.6 ALP Dobell (NSW)
6.8 ALP Dunkley (VIC)
7.1 ALP Holt (VIC)
7.6 ALP Hawke (VIC)
new poll in the daily telegraph take what you will from that shows 4 of the 6 teals would lose. https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=DTWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytelegraph.com.au%2Fnews%2Fnational%2Fnew-poll-reveals-shock-result-for-teal-mps%2Fnews-story%2Fa95fd86298e52e2bd495fb9bc652545e&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=GROUPA-Segment-1-NOSCORE
Spender and Stegall to hold.
and on facebook
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=635675579407277&set=a.104950452479795
Spoke to two Mackellar locals over the weekend and both were underwhelmed with Sophie Scamps as MP. They made the point that she had done nothing wrong but hadn’t been very active or visible either. I was in Kooyong this morning and at least in Camberwell and Canterbury the Hamer signs were outnumbering Ryan by about 2 to 1. Not an accurate guide but it could show less enthusiasm than last time.
if dutton and the libs can win 4 of those teal seats and at least ryan from the greens a dutton govt is all but assured. minority or majority. labor would simply be too far behind on the seat count and would likely require every single remaining crossbencher.