For this post, I am looking at how the parties have done in the Victorian council elections, and I run through a quick summary of how each council went.
As of the time of writing, all but three of the wards I am tracking have been finalised. The Wilton and Yamala wards in Frankston and the Westerfolds ward in Manningham have reported primary votes, but no preference distribution. For this analysis I am assuming the primary vote leaders win here.
It’s worth noting that it is sometimes difficult to assess who is an “independent Liberal” or “independent Labor” and I am sure there are some I’ve missed. At one point on the weekend there was a report that independent Liberals had won a 6-5 majority on Greater Geelong, but then after further analysis this has dropped to just four seats. So just bear that in mind – for the map below, I have identified Labor and Liberal members to my best knowledge. I have also updated these classifications based on feedback in the comments.
The only two parties that ran a large number of candidates officially were the Greens and Victorian Socialists.
The Greens had a mixed picture, but nowhere near as bad as first predicted.
The first thing to understand is the Greens mostly ran full tickets, or close to it, in a ring of inner city councils, and outside of this area they generally ran just one or two candidates in a council, focusing their resources. So in those inner city councils, you can look at the total party vote to assess their performance, but that doesn’t really work elsewhere.
I identified six major councils where they ran close to or full tickets in 2020 and 2024 where the swings may be of interest.
| Council | 2020 votes | 2024 votes | Swing | 2020 seats | 2024 seats |
| Darebin | 25.3 | 23.3 | -2.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Maribyrnong | 12.8 | 22.1 | 9.3 | 2 | 3 |
| Melbourne | 16.3 | 14.2 | -2.1 | 2 | 1 |
| Merri-bek | 17.2 | 22.3 | 5.1 | 4 | 4 |
| Port Phillip | 20.1 | 17.4 | -2.7 | 2 | 0 |
| Yarra | 26.5 | 26.7 | 0.2 | 5 | 2 |
The swing against the Greens was around 2-3% in Darebin, Melbournue and Port Phillip, but this is not true in other councils. The party gained a big swing in Maribyrnong, and also boosted their vote by 5% in Merri-bek despite not running in two wards. The vote was steady in Yarra.
The effect on seats is also interesting. The Greens seem to have been particularly hurt in Yarra by a change in the composition of their opponents which combined with the change to single-member meant they lost in a lot of wards (and not by particularly slim margins).
The Greens in Port Phillip really suffered from the change in electoral system. Their vote is lower there than in Yarra and Darebin, but they would have won seats if the old 3×3 system was still used.
The Greens will be locked out of power in Darebin but they haven’t actually done too badly. Labor gained their majority at the expense of independents. They now hold three of the four wards in the Northcote state seat, which is the half of the council where they have ambitions at a state level.
And the Greens look strong in Merri-bek and surprisingly strong in Maribyrnong. They also retained their two seats in Banyule. The Greens won two seats in Boroondara (up from one) but were wiped out in Stonnington in Glen Eira.
When you look on the map, the Greens have quite a lot of wards in the inner ring, stretching from Brimbank, Maribyrnong, the southern ends of Merri-bek, Darebin and Banyule. The biggest holes in the ring are in Yarra and Port Phillip.
I can’t help but think that the Greens are disadvantaged in the inner city by the shape of councils, which tend to radiate out from the council, combining inner city suburbs with slightly more distant suburbs. This describes the Darebin, Merri-bek, Banyule and Maribyrnong councils. Just as the Greens would likely win a federal seat combining the southern half of Cooper and Wills, they would probably be dominant in councils that combined those inner city areas.
Outside of the heartland, the Greens have won a handful of wards, mostly in the south-eastern suburbs. The party managed single wins in Casey and Frankston and two in Greater Dandenong. A big question here is whether voters were aware that they were electing Greens members. With no party labels on the ballot, and postal voting limiting the amount of campaigning voters would see, it’s quite possible that the voters have had a lot of trouble knowing the partisan affiliation of candidates.
Overall I count 21 Greens wins in the area I have analysed, which is the same as the number of councillors they had going into the election. Although that is not the same as the number of seats they won in 2020 – for example, two Greens elected in Monash in 2020 quit the party prior to this election and were re-elected as independents. So it looks like the Greens will have a slightly smaller councillor cohort than in 2020. But they have coped pretty well with the unfavourable change in the electoral system.
The Victorian Socialists are interesting to analyse because they ran so many candidates. They ran 71 candidates in the area I’m analysing, out of 310 wards. They cracked 10% in 32 wards, and exceeded 20% in five wards. They polled over 40% in Greater Bendigo’s Whipstick ward, where Owen Cosgriff ended up winning.
The Vic Socs made the 2CP in four wards. They polled 52.7% after preferences in Whipstick. They also managed over 40% of the 2CP in Brimbank Harvester, Darebin West and Merri-bek Bulleke-bek.
As a comparison, the Greens made the 2CP (or were one of just two candidates) in 39 wards. Their biggest margin was 11.7% in Maribyrnong Sheoak. They also came within 1% of winning in two different wards in Ballarat. A slight swing would’ve seen the Greens win both the Brown Hill and Central wards.
Ballarat
At least two independent Liberals and one independent Labor elected, along with six others. Greens polled 12% running in five out of nine wards but didn’t win any seats.
Banyule
The Greens polled 22% of the vote and retained the two southernmost wards.
Bayside
Apart from a very small vote for the Greens, everything else was for people I have listed as independents, but the local Liberal MP claimed victory with apparently a majority of the council being Liberal members.
Boroondara
While a number of Liberal members ran as independents, polling at least 29% of the vote, only one was elected. The Greens won two seats while only running in three wards. At least two independents who won seats are very obvious teal-type independents, and in general people have claimed that progressives have won a majority here.
Brimbank
On an 11-seat council, Labor independents won at least five seats, along with one independent Liberal. A single Greens member won the seat closest to the inner city in the south-eastern corner of the council.
Cardinia
Mostly a nonpartisan council but at least one Labor independent was elected.
Casey
After four years without a council, a whole new group of councillors was elected, including one Liberal member, one Labor member and one Greens member.
Darebin
The Greens managed to maintain their three seats, losing one but gaining another, but Labor gained net two seats from the independents, producing a Labor majority. The old council was split 3-3-3, but the new council is 5 Labor, 3 Greens and one independent. The former Greens mayor Susanne Newton was defeated in the West Ward, being knocked out by the Victorian Socialists candidate in the 2CP.
Frankston
This council has elected at least two independent Liberals, one independent Labor and one Greens member, along with five others.
Glen Eira
The Greens were wiped out here, after winning one seat in 2020, losing that seat to retirement and gaining another seat in a countback. Two Labor independents and one Liberal independents are sitting on the nine-seat council.
Greater Bendigo
The Victorian Socialists won their only ward in the state here, along with eight independents.
Greater Dandenong
Independent Labor members have won a majority, with at least six out of eleven. The Greens have won two wards, up from one on the last council. There’s also one Liberal.
Greater Geelong
There were some claims about independent Liberals winning a majority on this council but I’ve only been able to identify four out of eleven. There’s also one Labor independent.
Hobsons Bay
Two independent Labor councillors was elected amongst seven members.
Hume
Hume seems to have seven independent Labor members and one independent Liberal, along with three others.
Kingston
Two independent Labor members were elected along with nine others.
Knox
Three independent Liberals and one independent Labor elected along with four others.
Manningham
Four independent Liberals were elected along with five others.
Maribyrnong
In a surprise result, the Greens won three seats, and came awfully close to a fourth that would have given them a majority. The Community Labor group lost their majority, also winning three seats, along with one independent.
Maroondah
Four independent Liberals and one independent Labor along with four others.
Melton
Greens and Victorian Socialists both contested a small number of wards but won no seats. At least one independent Labor councillor won a seat.
Merri-bek
Labor, Greens and Your Local Independents all polled between 22% and 25%, with Greens winning four, Labor three and YLI two. One other independent and Sue Bolton from Socialist Alliance also won seats. It seems like this council has been run by a relatively pro-housing majority from Greens and Labor and that group has a clear majority.
Monash
One councillor has been identified as independent Labor.
Moonee Valley
Officially-endorsed Labor candidates won four out of nine seats. The Greens have held seats here in the past but didn’t come particularly close.
Mornington Peninsula
All councillors are independents.
Port Phillip
The Greens were hit hard by the new electoral system here, winning no seats. Labor won two seats, the right-wing Residents of Port Phillip won three, the centrist People Empowering Port Phillip won one, along with three other independents. A local with knowledge of this council on my Discord explained this as a split between a right-wing group of three, a left-wing group of three, and three centrists in the middle.
Stonnington
The Greens were also wiped out here, but despite this it looks like left-leaning councillors have won a majority. This council has two independent Liberals, two independent Labor and five others.
Whitehorse
Two independent Liberals and one independent Labor were elected along with eight others.
Whittlesea
Aidan McLindon’s group polled 23.7% of the vote across the council, winning two seats. Labor won four seats, and five others went to other independents.
Wyndham
Three independent Labor, two independent Liberals and seven others were elected here.
Yarra
Yarra For All polled 33.9% of the vote and won four seats. The Greens won two, Labor won one, and other independents won two. This is a big defeat for the Greens, who won five seats in 2020.
Yarra Ranges
All nine seats went to independents.
Great work as always Ben in crunching the numbers!
The only point of feedback I have is around Hume City Council, there is a partisan make up which, as best I can tell is:
Labor – 7 (+1)
Liberal – 1 (=)
Independent – 3 (-1)
It does require a bit of local knowledge to understand and I’ve provided a little bit of context on your Hume City Council page which has some further information if anyone wants to take a look.
@ Matthew which ward did the Libs win in Hume
Updates for Frankston Candidates
Michael O’Reilly – IND- Liberal
Justin Turner – IND – Liberal
Again – Steffie Conroy – IND – Liberal
If the classification of Ashleigh Vandenberg in Melton’s Jackwood ward and Andrew Deeming of the Hilltop Ward as ‘Independent’ is representative for the overall quality of data, I fear this analysis is on thin ice.
Ashleigh and her partner have been proud members, organisers, and activists of the ALP for years.
She’s as independent as Jacinta Allen.
On the other hand, Andrew is the husband of Moira Deeming. Both are members of the Liberal party.
IMHO there is no issue at all when members or supporters of political parties and groups are running for local council. However, when data is presented as factual, and not mere opinion, shouldn’t it be accurate?
Although technically no incumbents in Casey, two past councillors were elected:
Gary Rowe was part of the council that was sacked (and is a former Liberal MLA).
Lynette Pereira was on council 2008-2012 (she was Lynette Keleher back then). She used to be in the Greens, but I believe that’s no longer the case.
Thanks for the analysis.
Re City of Port Phillip: the Greens also failed to capitalise on their gains electing Greens in earlier years, when one of the councillors in particular seemed to have no idea and was thinking he could get lifted in parliament after doing time in a council. This left a very sour taste for Green supporters and enthusiasm.
Re Shire of Moyne: you have no info here. Or on other rural councils. What is happening in rural Victoria is important. And at a council level, it is depressing.
Peter, it’s one thing for you to know about your local council but that knowledge doesn’t scale. I did note that in this blog post – I am using as much data as I can find. I will update the data with the extra intel tonight.
Matthew, if you send me the names of those Liberal and Labor I’ll update my data and map to reflect that.
Barb, it is hard enough to have useful information for the most populous councils. Sorry but I can’t cover every council. I made a deliberate decision when I first started working on this election to set a minimum threshold of 85k population to cover a council.
Matthew, thanks I found your comments on the Hume guide. Will be updated tonight.
The Greens have won wards all over the shop and in weird places and I think the only explanation is that vote splitting and preference leakage caused this.
Trudi Paton in Cardinia is an independent Libertarian
Howdy Ben! Thanks for putting this together. Quick update re Wyndham, I think two Liberals got elected not one. Both Mia Shaw and Preet Singh ran for the Liberals in 2022.
Preet Singh in Wyndham is a member of the liberal party, perhaps he didn’t campaign as such
@NP, that may be true of some but a number of them polled a really high primary vote. Isabella Do in Keysborough South polled 47.5%.
Excellent map.
The only issue I have is coloring independents from Port Phillip, and Merri Bek purple. This suggests that they are akin to Yarra for All. Yarra for All are left wing, where as YLI (Merri Bek), and RoPP (Port Phillip) are right to far right. YLI should be brown. RoPP are even more openly right wing and have a real old school Protestant edge about them, so they should be orange.
I don’t live in Port Phillip, and nor do I want to, however I have cousins who live there. I studied the candidates out of curiosity. The pattern is that the area that corresponds with the old city of Port Melbourne elected a feel good touchy feely type, the areas that correspond to the old city of St Kilda elected Labor, and the areas that correspond to the old city of South Melbourne went for the lock ‘em up and throw away the key punch down types. Shame on you South Melbourne!
You are on the same page as me coloring Riversdale ward in Boroondara teal. Pesutto will be worried as these results suggest that he will lose his seat again. Glenferrie is Greens and the Liberal didn’t do well there.
I pity anyone with a social conscience who lives in Toorak, as they had four Liberal Party candidates, and a Libertarian. I guess it speaks volumes about the richest suburb in Naarm.
What can I say about Bayside…typical. I didn’t expect anything other than what they got in the WASPs nest.
Yes, housing was a big issue in Brunswick West ward. Even the right wing YLI candidate made sure she told everyone that she works in social housing. The Greens got up because, apart from VS, they were the only ones that mentioned public housing.
I would put Mohamed Semra as light blue. He’s definitely business oriented. His posters were Liberal Party blue. He is only so-so on LGBTQI+ issues, but he’s certainly not Ken Betts, or Catherine Cumming. I called it from day one that Jorge would not win Burndap. VS put copious amounts of time into door knocking, but the single member ward was always going to be a big ask. Sue Bolton had years on council, and her area is pretty uniform. Burndap covers areas (Farnsworth Avenue hill, and Edgewater) that were leas than enthusiastic for VS.
It didn’t surprise me that Sheoak went Green. It covers Seddon after all. Wattle ward covers Yarraville so it’s no surprise that the Greens won there either. I would have actually said the Greens were more likely to win those wards, than Brunswick West in Merri Bek.
Ava Adams was always going to win Queen’s Park ward in Moonee Valley. Moonee Ponds and Essendon were covered in her Yard signs, akin to Pascoe Vale South with Yildiz signs. I work with a person who moved to Pascoe Vale South, and they said “I voted for Yildiz, that’s what we do in Pascoe Vale South”.
It was interesting traveling down Moreland Road (the boundary between Pascoe Vale South and Brunswick West). The contrast was stark, as on the north side were Yildiz signs everywhere, whereas on the south side were no yard signs whatsoever. Even in the lower income part of Pascoe Vale South (west of the freeway) on the flat land there were Yildiz signs. On the other side was nothing (maybe because it’s harder to display signs in walk up flats with no yards).
Purple is being used generically for all the local parties.
Hi Ben, thanks for this but Hobsons Bay isn’t correct. Altona is not independent Liberal – just independent. Altona North and Laverton are Labor.
Hi Ben, messaging to advise you that I am not a member of the Liberal party. Would appreciate your reporting be updated.
Thanks so much
@Nimalan. The Liberals won Burt Kur Min ward in Hume. VS didn’t do well in Hume which surprised me.
Thanks for the corrections, Hobsons Bay will be fixed in a minute.
@ No Mondays. Thanks the ward that the Libs won was a part of Cragieburn which has more South Asian large Sikh community. I am surprised as well that VS did not do as well in Hume especially given the Palestine issue and a very large Muslim community. i posted in the Merribek thread that Sue Bolton won the poorest and most Muslim ward so i expected that pattern to continue in Hume.
@Nimalan. I went out to protests at the Hume City Hall during the year in support of Palestine. VS were there but they must not have made much inroads.
Sue did a lot of work in her area and fostered good relations with the community. She was always going to have a greater chance of winning than Jorge.
We now live in a time when Hawthorn is more progressive than South Melbourne and Albert Park. The people of the South Melbourne/ Albert Park area, of Port Phillip, made a conscious choice to elect the kick ‘em when they are down, silence vocal minorities, and lock’em up and throw away the keys brigade.
@ No Mondays
Omar Hassan is the VS candidate for Calwell and has been attending Pro-Palestine protests. VS did well in the overlapping state electorates last time. They need to campaign hard around Meadow Heights/Roxburgh Park etc.
@Nimalan. Omar is very charismatic and always gives rousing speeches at the rallies.
I think Jorge will probably run in Fraser in the federal elections. If council elections are anything to go by Footscray could go Green at the next state election. The Greens didn’t poll that well in Burndap but they did well in Sheoak, Saltwater, and Wattle wards.
@ No Mondays
Do you think Omar may incorporate the Palestine flag in the VS corfulates, if that is the case it may help him very well. A good result around Meadow Heights by the VS will help reverse any lock down related swings that went to the UAP last time. If Omar does well he ought to run in Greenvale in 2026 State election as well.
@ No Mondays you’re spot on about RoPP and I was really disappointed with the results surrounding Albert Park Lake.
You’re also right that the old City of St Kilda area mostly voted left. The ward of St Kilda itself didn’t – they elected someone from the old ‘Unchain St Kilda’ group mostly known for opposing the commercial development of the Triangle site in the 2000s – but Alma Ward in particular elected an extremely progressive IND (vs GRN) while Elwood & Balaclava were typical ALP vs GRN contests.
I always expected Albert Park Ward to elect a conservative, either the ‘Independent Liberal’ or RoPP – but I honestly didn’t expect RoPP to be able to win South Melbourne & Lakeside in a single-member ward structure. I thought South Melbourne would probably be an ALP win, and Lakeside would favour the Greens since it takes in Port Phillip’s share of Windsor, a little of St Kilda, and Melbourne 3004.
The problem with council elections is that most people are just not engaged. They see advertising for candidates simply presenting as an independent, non-political alternative to the parties and think “Yeah that’s better for local council” and fall for it, not realising they are actually extremely partisan and very right-wing which the South Melbourne & Melbourne 3004 areas are certainly not.
As a Port Phillip resident myself, I am really disappointed that single member wards didn’t result in at least a 6-3 progressive (GRN, ALP or Progressive IND) majority like I expected.
My predictions were, 2 centrist INDs in Port Melbourne & Montague, 1 conservative in Albert Park, and the remaining 6 would be either Greens, ALP or progressive INDs in Alma, Balaclava, Elwood, St Kilda, Lakeside and South Melbourne.
Port Melbourne, Montague, Albert Park, Alma, Balaclava & Elwood were all as expected. But the shock RoPP wins in South Melbourne & Lakeside and the dominance of INDs in St Kilda ended up turning what I thought would be a 6-2-1 (Left / Centre / Right) council into a 3-3-3 council.
We’ll have to see what the 3 ‘centrists’ voting records look like but it has the potential to be an even less progressive council than the previous 4-1-4 makeup which itself I don’t think was particularly representative of the area the council covers, which generally leans reliably left (to very strongly left in the south) everywhere but Port Melbourne & Albert Park.
@Trent. Thanks for your detailed response.
I was disappointed too. Although I live on the other side of the city, I always check results from that area, given that I have cousins there, and when my family came here they moved to St Kilda, Elwood, St Kilda East. Many then moved to the neighboring Caulfield area.
I see that Sege Thomann got up in the northern part of St Kilda. He looks left compared to the RoPP. The Port representatives are very wishy washy, particularly the person who got up in Montague.
Back in the day VS might have run in other parts of Port Phillip, and not just in St Kilda.
@Nimalan. I wouldn’t be surprised if Omar did that. We will have to wait and see. Sue Bolton did, as did the other Socialist Alliance candidates.
Yeah you’re right about Serge Thomann, I can’t really identify any particular political leaning with him so I consider him a centrist who will probably vote on each issue individually. His priority has always seemed to be on preserving the character and culture of the suburb, he made his name opposing the original ‘Chadstone by the Sea’ proposal for the Triangle site for example.
I also can’t really pin down how the guy who won Montague leans. He had a real focus on fiscal responsibility and seemed to have some support from the more right-leaning candidates/supporters, but was also endorsed by Progressive Port Phillip and BUG (Bicycle Users Group) and has a real focus on climate, sustainability and improving PT. So maybe he’s teal-ish?
Sounds like he should be reliable for a more progressive vote on urban design issues like pedestrian safety, bike lanes, greening etc so maybe he’ll be a pleasant surprise and might actually turn out to be more in the progressive bloc (making it more like 4-2-3 which is actually better than the last council).
VS would probably do pretty well in Alma Ward which is dominated by walk-up flats and has all of St Kilda’s housing commission.
They would probably also do well in South Melbourne. Interestingly, I think the RoPP candidate there was able to win over a lot of public housing residents angry at Labor over the tower demolition plans, and 15% of South Melbourne residents live in public housing (highest concentration in the council). They would have had no idea her or her group were right-wing and oppose all the services they rely on, but probably also think the Greens are too bougie, so that’s a space VS would have done well in.
@ Trent
Maybe the issue in South Melbourne is that the Public housing vote is being diluted with new privately built apartments and unlike areas like Fitzroy/Brunswick it does not really attract students/activists. I feel the issue in South Melbourne that it is too close to St Kilda Road area and Southbank which seem very capitalists and corporate for VS to do well.
RoPP only beat Labor by a 6.8% margin in South Melbourne. When you think that public housing makes up 15% of that population, and there may have been a significant shift among those voters to a so-called “independent” who sided with their opposition to Labor’s plans, even an 8-10% VS vote concentrated near the public housing estates could have made that much closer to a 50/50 contest.
I don’t think anywhere in Port Phillip is a ward that VS could actually win. But if they got around 8% in St Kilda Ward, I think they could also get 8-10% in South Melbourne which may not be as ‘left-wing’ overall but has 3x more public housing than St Kilda (and St Kilda’s public housing isn’t even in St Kilda Ward).
Most of that St Kilda Road area is actually in Lakeside Ward, and Southbank is split between City of Melbourne, Montague Ward and South Melbourne Ward I think, so South Melbourne Ward is mostly just the suburb of South Melbourne itself. Most of which is pretty affluent, but like I said, not expecting them to actually win, but a 10% (or more) VS vote can influence the final result.
Just as an example, the 8% VS vote in St Kilda Ward elevated Tim Baxter (Greens) from 5th place to 3rd place I think when they were excluded.
@Trent. It’s definitely hard to get a handle on Serge. I think you’re right that he will approach each issue individually. The person who won Montague is even harder to work out, however he got a good rating from rainbowvotes.com.au. Teal is probably apt. It’s a bit like Mohamed Semra in Burndap; hard to gauge. What worries me about Semra is that he used Liberal Party blue on his posters and flyers, and he only got a so-so rating on rainbow votes.com.au. Semra is definitely more moderate than Ken Betts (ex Liberal Party), or Catherine Cumming (ex Hinch Justice Party).
I am surprised that VS didn’t run in South Melbourne, given that the 30 story Park Towers is situated there, as well as the 12 story Dorcas Street tower. Your analysis about the public housing tenants vote could be accurate, as they are definitely angry at Labor. The sad reality is that I don’t see RoPP getting out and joining RAHU and the SPHC, in the defense of the residents, against the demolition of the towers. They are likely to help fuel moral panic against public housing tenants. Thomann strikes me as someone who will talk about social and affordable housing, but not public housing. The person who won Montague also strikes me as such a person. We will have to wait and see I guess.
It’s funny seeing how Casey had only two candidates who exceeded 30% of the primary vote in any of the 12 wards. Grevillea ward didn’t even see any candidate crack 18% of the primary vote, which surely has to be the lowest leading PV% I can ever remember. I suppose the lack of an elected council for the last 4 years made most of the candidates take campaigning seriously and thus caused contests to be really competitive.
I was thinking the same might have happened to Whittlesea, but not as many wards were as competitive as Casey’s were. Hell, Aidan McLindon won Kirrip ward with over 50% of the primary vote somehow (I suppose right-wing nuts are statistically likely to get elected in some places considering most residents likely only base their vote off the short candidate statements).
Also good grief, Bayside had so many people running. Surely about 2/3 of them in Dendy and Castlefield were spoiler/preference harvesting candidates.