Podcast #135: LNP takes power in Queensland

In the UK it was mostly Muslim independents who got votes from Labour in seats with lots of Muslims that Muslim independents ran in (e.g. Leicester South). In London seats with lots of Muslims it went to the Greens because there wasn’t as big of a campaign from Muslim independents or perhaps there were two and since the UK has FPTP voting that split the vote and Labour won. But still the Greens have still never won a seat in Greater London or the Home Counties.

Is it true that a lot of local students rent close to Uni? I thought in Australia it was well established that most lived at home and commuted, except for international and regional/interstate students?

@ Nether Portal
Agree the Muslim community in QLD is smaller and mainly concentrated in parts of Rankin and Moreton. Regarding Antisemitism, right wing antisemitism is really a fringe movement in much of the Western World especially the Anglophone countries. There maybe Antisemitism on the Extreme Right but certainly not the Centre Right or Even the Far Right. Even Christian Conservatives such as Family First, Corey Bernadi are not Antisemitic despite a religious difference. One Nation party is also not antisemitic. I think very few Anglos are actually antisemitic and probably more tolerant towards Jews over other minorities. If a Jewish family visited a One Nation stronghold on holidays they will likely be treated well. I also dont think building a synagogue in such a place will cause controversy.

@Nimalan I agree, but it’s still a possibility. The right in Europe and Australia is very pro-Israel and pro-Jewish, as is most of the American right but still the only country where even a reasonable amount of far-right white people hold antisemitic views is the US.

@MLV it would make sense if they did.

@MLV
I agree with you the student vote is not concentrated near Universities for the exact reason you mentioned. In Fact suburbs that were Growth areas 20 years ago probably have more University students than you would expect (they will have an over representation of that age demographic) as it is common for people to live at home and commute that was my experience when i was at University.

@ Nether Portal
Yeah i am disputing that there is that demographic that is out there. Anyway i have included a link for you this explains levels of Antisemitism by country.

https://global100.adl.org/map

There is a difference between people being Jewish by either culture or religion.* To criticise people for this is wrong and intolerent*
But for people to criticise the state of Israel for their actions and policies or to criticise the personell of the government of Israel is fine

The ADL is a Zionist organisation, their antisemitism ‘statistics’ are complete garbage.

@FL I’m pretty sure most Jewish people are “Zionists”.

Most Jewish people aren’t professional lobbyists for Israel, deliberately laundering Israeli state propaganda conflating opposition to the Zionist state with hatred of Jews.

@ FL
Have you looked at the list of 11 ADL questions only one even mentions Israel to determine if someone is Antisemetic? It seems Laos is the least antisemetic country in the world.

@NP
*sorry i meant to say i am not disputing there is White Supremacist/Neo Nazi extreme right wing wing antisemitism.

Also Australia is the land of the nominal Christian nominal jew eyc

How nat heavy will the new lnp government be. Assuming this was the federal parliament where mps choose between the national and liberal parties?
52 to 54 lnp
Nats .?
Liberals ?

I know the standard answer each mp represents the lnp only not it’s earlier parts.
But this is an excuse or a debating.point not an answer.

Mick – if going by the federal LNP convention where MP’s sit in the party room corresponding to which party held the seat previously then the new MP’s would fit into the respective parties as below:

National – Keppel, Townsville, Mulgrave, Maryborough, Redlands*
Liberal – Barron River, Mundingburra, Caloundra, Redcliffe
Unknown – Mackay, Pumicestone, Capalaba

Unknown is for seats that were never held by the Coalition prior to the LNP’s formation. These MP’s would probably fit best as Liberals due to these being urban districts.

Redlands is an exception because it is an urban seat that was won by the LNP after the merger and was held by the Nationals pre-1989.

@Yoh An @Mick Quinlivan well federally any LNP MP from Brisbane, the Gold Coast, the Sunshine Coast, Townsville, Ipswich, Cairns or Toowoomba would be a Liberal MP while rural MPs are Nationals. However, it is possible that Mulgrave, Mackay, Rockhampton, Bundaberg and Hervey Bay would be Liberal instead of National when the LNP wins.

Thanks you an
And Np

Regarding the movement of Greens votes from the inner city to outer suburbs.

McConnel, Cooper, Maiwar and South Brisbane are not cheap to live in anymore. Brisbane is the second most expensive capital city to rent an apartment. The high rents would make more local students live with their parents or in middle-ring or outer suburbs or even choose regional universities. This has also pushed out a lot of low-wage and gig economy workers. The median age of Inner Brisbane appears low as it is skewed by international students, backpackers and other non-citizens.

Young, white collar professionals, first home buyers and DINKs are filling into the new-ish apartments since they work full-time jobs and can afford to, moreso than uni students working casual hours. They are most probably sensitive to cost of living measures such as 50c fares. People who live near or in CBDs are more likely to walk or catch public transport. They may be apathetic when it comes to Palestine and may not be rusted-on Greens voters to begin with.

Candidate attributes could have been a factor. Stretton had a Greens candidate of Egyptian-Muslim descent whilst Inala had a Greens candidate of Vietnamese descent. In both seats, there were solid swings to the Greens. On the flipside, I’d say Grace Grace and Jonty Bush have strong personal votes, and probably had benefited from anti-LNP tactical voting, and hence scored swings to Labor.

As I mentioned upthread Votante, students in Australia do not live close to campus the way they do in the US/UK model, they live at home and commute unless they are international/regional/interstate students. I also think that young white collar professionals (particularly women) have become the Greens core base.
If I am right, I think it is more likely that the Greens Pro Palestine stance has come across as Pro Hamas and turned off some of those professional women, whilst at the same time attracting a cohort of Muslims. Similar I think with the CFMEU. To me, that makes more sense than Uni students moving back home.

Honestly if the Greens don’t see what happened in their target seats and continue their ‘Free Palestine, We Love CFMEU, Tax the Billionaires’ campaign, then Ryan and maybe Brisbane/Griffith could be in danger.

Ryan is a tealish seat anyway, so if a teal candidate pops up, it’s likely they could win unless vote splitting/return to LNP happens.

Ryan is a blue/green seat and would be teal if a credible teal candidate had run in 2022. Many professional women who drove the Green wave of 2022 are not particularly economically left-wing and are not hard Greens voters. Environmental issues such as climate change and aircraft noise were at play. The Greens focus on Palestine, and maybe even Lidia Thorpe (even though she’s not a Green anymore) might’ve made them feel abandoned.

How credible is Labor’s claim that the Greens vote in inner Brisbane fell because Dutton and Bandt are aligned on various major issues?

nether Portal calculated Ryan based on state results from last week and Labor would have actually won it. Ryan does not really have hardcore left wing areas like Griffith and to a lesser extent Brisbane does. I do think many professional women who are not really the base of the Greens are more pragmatic for example would want more cooperation on housing policy with Labor. the greens need to find a way to seperate the message for tealish suburbs from suburbs like Fitzroy and Brunswick. I feel the base of the Greens is young renters students etc and MCM appeals to them but maybe dragging down the Tealish vote

@Nimalan yeah in 2020 Ryan would’ve actually been won by Labor because Labor overperformed in Cooper, Ferny Grove and Moggill. The only part that the Greens did well in is Maiwar which is quite friendly to them federally. On BCC results however Labor and the Greens underperform, or should I say the LNP overperforms, since the LNP would’ve won this with 58% of the TPP vote in 2024. Same goes for Clayfield which on BCC results would be a safe seat for the LNP.

I know four years is a long time in politics but if the BCC election were held today I would expect the Greens to flop in a lot of inner-city wards and lose Paddington to the LNP. I would’ve always picked Paddington to go back to the LNP, it’s on a very slim margin and chances are the Greens will not learn from their mistakes.

As James said, the Greens aren’t learning from their mistakes. Brisbane will go back to Labor, Ryan might go to the LNP or Labor or it might stick with the Greens if Labor voters continue to tactically vote Greens to keep the LNP out. Max Chandler-Mather having a high profile would help them retain Griffith though.

I honestly don’t think the Greens will learn from their mistakes though. Why? Well, their extreme views are helping them among left-wing students in the inner-city. They are gaining support in specific parts of inner-city Melbourne and are probably gonna gain Wills from Labor. When Albo’s gone Grayndler might be competitive too. Cooper will be competitive in the future and so could Fraser depending on the redistribution. Sydney however won’t be competitive and based on what we saw in the ACT I’m starting to think Canberra won’t be either.

I’m starting to find the idea more compelling that the Greens over the top activism on Palestine is hurting them.

They’ve basically committing with their full force, seemingly more than their core campaigns on the environment and housing, to one side of a very messy foreign conflict, where it is clear Australia isn’t a major player (i.e. the policy is mostly about optics) and where people’s perspectives are heavily shaped by their preconceptions and media diet. Things like the weirdly fast support for Palestinians after October 7 with it not being too hard to find leftists praising the attacks, the refusal to condemn Hamas explicitly, and so on – they aren’t major features of the Greens campaign but they might snap people out of a Green supporting trance.

There are votes in it elsewhere (I’ve seen the Kuraby booth in Stretton), and it definitely can build volunteer energy, but I can also see how it’s a turn off. I can see it being to the extent that parts of the Greens coalition like the old Democrats voter base that just wanted a better politics, people who vote Greens over single issues like the environment as a “why not”, left but not far-left voters – might reconsider their support if they aren’t all in for Palestine.

There’s already been a noticeable change in tone from federal greens on social media, who have switched gears to promoting positive policy initiatives. May just be a coincidence but perhaps they’re already reevaluating their approach after the slap in the face of South Brisbane. It definitely isn’t too late for them to get the 2022 voter coalition back together and add to it.

@Nether Portal – regarding Canberra, it depends how you interpret the vote for independents. If you can imagine the Greens winning those votes back, or a compelling independent running and Greens receiving votes back as preferences (especially if something like a split, not open, ticket happens), they are in as good a position as ever. I didn’t rule out Dutton preferencing Greens above Labor to make it much more likely Labor slips into minority – Palestine has likely made it untenable but maybe it’s less prominent in the media by May next year (or public perception of Israel plummets).

Here is my analysis of the Greens’ currently-held seats and “target seats” on the federal level:

ACT:
* Canberra: I used to think it could be winnable but it turns out Canberra isn’t as woke as we thought since both Labor and the Liberals got more votes than the Greens in Kurrajong at the last ACT election, so I think while the federal Greens might keep coming second I don’t think they’ll win

NSW:
* Cunningham: unwinnable, Wollongong is a very Labor-voting area and has a working-class history, in fact Wollongong is more rusted on for Labor than Newcastle is
* Grayndler: will be competitive after Albo retires
* Newcastle: unwinnable, Newcastle is a very Labor-voting area especially in the inner-city and has a working-class history and while it is becoming richer and more CALD it still has that history, plus Bar Beach and Merewether are small-l-liberal areas
* Richmond: unwinnable because even though it has heaps of hippie towns, many of which are really now left-wing thanks to an influx in Sydneysiders and Melburnians moving there (the most obvious example of this is the touristy hippie town of Byron Bay), the Nationals still outpoll Labor and the Greens in Tweed Heads and even in Ballina (even thought the Greens hold the seat of Ballina they regularly lose the primary vote and in most booths even the TCP vote to the Nationals in Ballina itself but the Greens win in the hippie towns e.g Byron Bay, Mullumbimby, etc) and a lot of the non-hippie rural areas are as solidly Nationals-voting as the rest of the North Coast (the North Coast from Forster-Tuncurry up to the Queensland border has been a conservative stronghold since Federation)
* Sydney: unwinnable, too many solidly Labor-voting areas (e.g Alexandria, Redfern, Surry Hills, Ultimo) and small-l-liberal areas (Barangaroo, Millers Point (which is a Liberal booth on the federal and state level), Pyrmont)

Queensland:
* Brisbane: likely to go to Labor since the Greens just got lucky last time (they won from third place because of AJP preferences which put them ahead of Labor since they were barely behind Labor on primaries); note that Brisbane has Labor-voting areas as well as small-l-liberal areas (e.g Albion, Ascot, Clayfield, Hendra and even New Farm could be considered small-l-liberal as parts of it voted LNP on the council level while in the others they led on first preferences but barely lost to the Greens on TCP), but on council results it would be an LNP ward without a doubt and probably on a 4-6% margin
* Griffith: probably will stay with the Greens due to MCM’s profile but I wouldn’t rule out Labor regaining it
* Moreton: unwinnable for Labor at the moment since it includes heavily ethnic areas like Sunnybank which has Brisbane’s highest Chinese community, and Chinese people tend to vote either LNP or Labor (depending on the year Sunnybank votes for either the LNP or Labor, in 2019 it was LNP and in 2022 it was Labor)
* Ryan: could either go back to the LNP or go to Labor depending on how both parties conduct themselves as this is a tealish seat but the Greens could hold on simply because of tactical voting from Labor voters, but again on council results this is a fairly safe LNP seat

SA:
* Sturt: no way in hell the Greens will win here, either the Liberals or Labor will, it’s a small-l-liberal seat but the Greens are way behind Labor on primaries so it’s ridiculous that the Greens are even spending time here

Victoria:
* Cooper: not winnable yet barring a landslide loss for Labor or if the Liberals preference the Greens, but still competitive and could fall in the future (what’s stopping them now is the fact that so many Asian (particularly Vietnamese) people live in Fraser (I think it has the second-highest Vietnamese population in Australia, after Fowler in Sydney of course)
* Fraser: could be competitive in the future, redistribution could make it more centred on Footscray which would make it competitive
* Higgins: when it existed it could’ve been won by the Greens since while it has a lot of small-l-liberal areas (e.g Kooyong, Toorak) and even some Labor-voting areas (e.g Carnegie), it also had a lot of left-wing areas (e.g Prahran and South Yarra)
* Macnamara: unwinnable now, while it does have left-wing areas (i.e in and around St Kilda) it also has small-l-liberal areas (e.g Port Melbourne) and then Caulfield which is not only solidly Liberal but also has Australia’s largest Jewish community and Jews practically never vote Greens
* Melbourne: left-wing seat (the only areas that have ever voted Liberal are Docklands and East Melbourne)
* Wills: likely gain, increased hype over issues like Gaza and student politics issues plus a left-wing base in Brunswick and the surrounding areas

WA:
* Fremantle: the Greens could finish second here but won’t win, too strong for Labor
* Perth: unwinnable, too many Labor-voting areas and too many small-l-liberal areas

Basically the small-l-liberal areas are tealish or moderate Liberal and they won’t vote for a radical Greens candidate.

I should also note that my calculation of the LNP TPP in Ryan based on council results would’ve missed some prepolls and postals from the suburbs that I had to manually add to the numbers (i.e those that aren’t in Pullenvale or Walter Taylor) so it’s probably even better for the LNP (~59-62%).

I think the chance that Libs preferences Greens ahead of Labor is somewhere between note and zero.

Nether Portal some stray thoughts:

I don’t think WA Greens have seriously targeted federal Fremantle in a while – it has too much conventional Labor vs Liberal territory, the major parties are too close together at typical elections, and Greens aren’t even winning the State seat where all their best areas are concentrated. Perth is the much more compelling target if Greens can take more chunks off Labor in an election where there’s also a correction back to the Liberals on primaries.

SA Greens I think are targeting Sturt because it’s Liberal held and otherwise would be targeting Adelaide or Boothby (or Mayo if Sharkie gives up or goes off). They’d be satisfied with a swing to Greens precipitating a flip to Labor (much like what happened at the Dunstan byelection). They don’t really have much else to do.

Fraser – Greens seem to be doing better in multicultural working class areas lately. Fraser is the right mix of that with core Green constituents. I had this in the “need LNP preferences’ category before but Huong Truong might have what it takes to actually win it in the same way as Wills.

Cooper, Cunningham, Newcastle – Still in the “need LNP preferences” category for me, but if Greens actually are making inroads into core Labor constituencies they will look quite winnable.

Macnamara – The theory is that the area that is put off by the Greens over Palestine never voted Green anyway. I think what will make it unwinnable for Greens is tactical voting for Labor and Greens starting to do worse among the teal-ish demographics here.

Canberra – I think if a compelling independent backed by Pocock ran, they could win, or push Greens over the top with a split ticket (i.e. an HTV that goes 1 ind, 2 grn, 3-4 major party of your choice). Liberal preferences would help of course. Greens of course seem to be much worse at making friends than they used to be so it probably won’t happen.

Hotham could be an interesting seat – good mix of Monash Uni and CALD voters and Greens might want to take on the housing Minister (one reason I thought Tasmanian Greens would give Franklin a fair shake).

Moreton: If Greens don’t win it in 2025 with Perrett retiring it will be a long time before they ever win it. And with the scare they got in South Brisbane they may divert resources back to sandbagging the incumbents.

Grayndler: Greens should count themselves lucky they won Balmain because the Inner West is starting to look like a bridge too far for Greens to get back on top. I used to think it would go Green as soon as Albo moves but now I’m not so sure even with Liberal preferences.
Sydney: I actually think Plibersek isn’t as safe as Albo if Greens can find a good candidate that unites the left and Clover Moore voting blocks. Huge IF though – Greens haven’t traditionally done a great job preselecting in Sydney and the inner west.

Richmond: Still solid and the Greens best chance of a gain. (followed by Wills)

Ultimately the Greens would be a force to be reckoned with at the upcoming election if they got Liberal preferences, and they were well positioned for Dutton to cynically do that based on his own election goals (push Labor into minority), but I think they’ve lost their ability to draw in “sure why not” support.

@ BNJ
my thoughts
Fraser-while CALD does not really have many Muslims. Mainly Vietnamese and some parts are too poot
Canberra-need Liberal preferences which is not coming
Hotham-fanciful. It is a weak area for the Greens. While there is a University as @MLV said repeatedly most University students except interstate/regional students still live in the family home. Most of Hotham is working class and while it is CALD it is Greek, Indochinese, Chinese very few Muslims so Palestine will not impact. Greens have no chance of making the 2CP
Moreton-Labor did very well in the state election overlapping seats while parts of the seat along the river are good for the Greens the rest of it is not

My read of the ministry is, Last, Purdie, Mickleberg, Leahy, Perrett, Simpson, Powell, Camm and Frecklinton are Nationals;
Bleijie, Bates, Nicholls, Gerber, , Langbroek, Mander, Minnikin Janetsk iand Crisafulli are the Liberals.
That’s 9 each.
14b of the 18 are from outside the City of Brisbane boundaries.
Since Newman, the leaders have gone in turn.
There was Springborg [N], Nicholls [L], Frecklinton [N], Crisafulli [L].
Police Minister Purdie a former Homicide detective.
Whether that works out is another thing, medicos as Health Ministers often fail.

@Nimalan:
Labor selected a young non CALD woman for Moreton.
Whether that will play well with the CALD voters, I don’t know, I think the decision is a play for the Green vote closer in
Opportunity for the LNP if they pick cadidate with name recognition and communication skills.

@Nimalan: What I’m suggesting is that CALD working class areas might be doing better for Greens, and not just Muslims, looking at positive swings to Greens in not just Stretton but seats like Woodridge and Inala.

Though yes part of my assessment of Hotham was based on your post about Greater Dandenong and my memory that Hotham approaches that area. But Hotham isn’t even in the top 32 electorates by Muslim population. The key seat re: Dandenong is Bruce (13.8% Muslim) not Hotham. I just then thought Monash Uni (a big and prestigious enough uni that it isn’t just commuters living with their parents going there) would be then what centres Greens over an independent. Greens have been doing better in Oakleigh and from the 6 News reporting the former Greens on Monash council got reelected easily. Anyway, I feel a bit daft now.

Moreton I think the iron is hot because Perrett is retiring, Greens have their “base” in the area overlapping Miller (though unfortunately for their best hopes, no state seat beach head) and newfound strength in the areas with Muslims and CALD voters that were once extremely weak for them. That combined with a swing to Liberals on primaries with Dutton at the helm (and no Perrett) makes it a 3 corner contest. If Labor wins with a decent candidate then Greens will be waiting a long time to win it again.

I will also note Canberra is one of the only seats where Liberals ran an open ticket in 2022 (not a ticket explicitly preferencing against Greens). The biggest obstacle to Greens is Labor’s primary vote is too high but the rise of independents could change that.

@ BNJ
Fair points and i dont mean to be disrespectful so please dont take that way.
1. I think the Greens can make inroads into 2nd/3rd Generation CALD voters. Hotham does have that demographic especially post-Vietnam war migrants. Woodridge does have a significant Muslim especially Afghan community.
2. Hotham does overlap with Greater Dandenong but the part of Greater Dandeong that is most Muslim is the eastern part around Dandenong itself where there is a large Muslim community this extends into Casey council for example Hallam. The parts that overlap with Hotham tends to be Vietnamese/Khmer etc.
3. Regarding Monash Uni- while it may be a big and prestige uni i doubt someone from the Western Suburbs who got admission while move closer and pay rent when they can commute from werribee by train. Longer commute yes but you dont need to pay bills, cook, pay rent if you still love at home. So among Australian Citizens it will only be regional/interstate students who live in the seat unless they are Hotham locals.
4. Moreton-i agree Perrette is retiring. I think there will be a swing to the Greens from Labor. i accept there will be a swing in Kuraby etc. However, i dont think there will be a big enough swing to Libs so Labor is knocked out. While Dutton is a Queenslander he is quite polarizing and does not appeal to better educated and CALD voters. Moreton tends to be progressive and multi-ethnic which is a lethal cocktail for Dutton.

Also this is a demographic i expect Albo to hold up better not really mortgage belt but not superwealthy tealish etc. I expect the Chinese Community to go strongly for Labor as they will be grateful that relations with China have improved. Also unlike the Vietnamese community there are fewer 2nd and 3rd generation Chinese and Korean immigrants so it is harder to make inroads.

3. If an independent ran in Canberra i expect them to take votes from all parties. They may run an open ticket and not recommend preference. In a seat with high education no need to make a recommendation to assist people to cast a formal vote.

* still live at home

@Blue Not John and @Nimalan

I think both of you have made some really interesting points about the Greens and how the results from the QLD election could have a flow on effect to the Federal election next year. Just on the issue of Moreton and Hotham:

1) Perrett retiring was always expected given Labor had been pushing on quotas as part of their affirmative action. The Greens have selected a pro-Palestine former Labor party member in Remah Naji who they expect to do well and to some extent I agree there will be somewhat of a positive swing to the Greens. Having said that, Moreton isn’t really like any of the other Green targets like Wills or Cooper where there is a big group of either hardcore Green voters (Gen Z, renters) or Muslim voters (most of them are next door in Jim Chalmers’ seat of Rankin). To me it seems like an electorate that is gentrifying near the riverside with which explains a more progressive lean towards to left due to issues like cost of living and housing but hardly anything to shock anyone by. Labor’s candidate (Julie-Ann Campbell) seems to be fairly well known in the area so I expect her to retain with a small swing against the ALP. Agree with the notion that Dutton and the LNP in general doesn’t play well in this area of migrant-background communities. If anything he’s more of a turnoff than Morrison.

2) I have friends who live in Hotham who also happen to be university students. Nimalan is right in that those university students at Monash Clayton aren’t the student activist type you see with the socialist alternatives in Parkville or RMIT etc. They’re actually more affluent in some cases than your average university demographic and don’t tend to be involved in politics. Couple that with the big Chinese/Vietnamese population in suburbs like Clayton, Clarinda, Springvale etc who doesn’t really care for the Greens type of populism, and the fact that Clare O’Neil is fairly high profile and popular, it’s definitely not a Greens’ seat unless if Melbourne’s gentrification moves further South-East in the next few years.

Before I stray too far off-topic, I also thought I’d share some thoughts about the other Greens’ targets:

– Macnamara: Was winnable until Israel-Palestine conflict restarted. The rock-solid pro-Jewish vote in Caulfield etc will play a key role in determining Josh Burns’ fate. If the Greens keep blocking the housing bills in the Senate they’ll quickly find that the remainder of their voting base in that electorate will start drifting away to a more viable alternative that would be Labor. The removal of South Yarra and Prahran will also help Labor moreso than the Greens, though the addition of Windsor may balance that out.

– Wills: Stick a fork in it, it’s done. Peter Khalil has no hope given he’s pro-USA who’s been pro-Israel and the recent redistribution cut out his strength in the north to Maribyrnong and added the Greens heartland of Brunswick, Fitzroy and Carlton. Not to mention north of Bell Street there is a big Muslim population and with a high profile candidate in Samantha Ratnam, he’s a goner. I reckon Bob Hawke will be spinning in his graves to see Wills fall to someone else other than Labor.

– Cooper: It’s next to Wills but it’s more favourable for Labor. Ged Kearney has been pro-Palestine and is of the left faction which suits this electorate, not to mention she is apparently quite popular. There is the addition of Clifton Hill but that is comparatively weaker than Brunswick for the Greens. Not to mention the Greens aren’t really targeting this seat as much as Wills and their candidate (who happens to be the partner of former candidate Celeste Liddle) is uninspiring.

– Sturt: I live in this seat and I just can’t see it turning Green in one election cycle (It’ll take probably two at least). However any increase in the Greens primary vote will most likely flip this seat to Labor which I’m in favour of as James Stevens needs to go.

– Richmond: Possible. But will have to see how much the Greens vote increase by and whether Labor preferences will be enough to get it past the Nationals.

– Perth: Feels like a bridge too far in one cycle. The Greens’ real areas of strength are in Northbridge, Maylands and Bayswater. Even so the rest of the electorate skews Labor so it’ll be hard for them to gain it unless there’s a huge landslide to the Greens from Labor and I’ll be looking out for airborne swines if it happened in one cycle.

Back to Queensland. The results are still shocking overall for the Greens. They’re on the verge of losing South Brisbane which is their heartland, says it all about their member and the way the federal counterpart, led by none other than Max Chandler-Mather in Queensland, are carrying on unproductively. Federally, I’d say Bates is definitely on the chopping block next year and Labor could regain it based on the fact that the Greens crashed in McConnel and Cooper when they should’ve increased at Labor’s expense.

OK. Rant Over. Thanks for keeping up!

Labor did better in affluent seats than in their working-class heartland. The swing was bigger in the outer suburbs, but the main issues (crime, COL and housing) weren’t the only reasons why. Steven Miles is looking closely at the US presidential election, in particular the Democrats because he thinks Australia is America, he thinks Labor are Democrats, he thinks he’s Kamala Harris, he thinks the LNP are Republicans and (the most incorrect thing) he thinks David Crisafulli is Donald Trump. Hence the abortion scare campaign, since the Democrats campaign on abortion and affirmative action to shore up affluent voters in major cities like New York and Los Angeles deserting a lot of working-class and middle-class people in and outside the cities.

What I wonder is how this moving further to the left and focusing more on social issues and identity politics (in touch with Americans but out of touch with mainstream Aussies) will affect working-class seats like Ipswich West and Logan, ethnic working-class seats like Toohey and Waterford, and middle-class seats like Lytton and Mansfield. They all stuck with Labor this time but if Queensland Labor becomes more like the federal Labor or the Democrats then could they be at risk? Mansfield is already a serious risk, and David Crisafulli needs to focus on seats like that to increase the LNP’s presence in Greater Brisbane by appealing to ethnic voters like the NSW Coalition and NSW Labor do.

America is voting right now and tomorrow it’s certain that a new President and Vice President will be elected, it’s just a matter of whether it’s Kamala Harris and Tim Walz or Donald Trump and JD Vance. I don’t like either of them but if I had to vote despite being centre-right I would vote for Harris just to end the Trump era with hopes the Republicans move on from him and his allies.

@ Nether Portal
Just my two cents
As i mentioned in the Dickson thread. Queensland and Tasmania are quite unique to Australia as they have a decentralized population this is similar to many US states. This is why populism works better in Queensland than it does in Victoria and something the Victorian Liberals dont seem to understand what works in QLD does not work in Victoria.

Steven Miles strategy was not to retain government but to save as much of the furniture as possible. He thought and he was right by focusing on Abortion he could retain many Brisbane seats. The other fear was if Labor crashed to third place it could put many seats at risk of falling to the Greens. In that sense it was a brilliant strategy as he held on to way more seats than predicted and seems to have even over performed Albo in May 2022. However, it is not a strategy to win government. As 52% of Queensland population lives outside of Brisbane it is not really possible for QLD State Labor to win without making inroads into Central QLD/North QLD. Even if QLD wins posh seats like Moggill and Clayfield that is no where near enough especially if they just loose Bundaberg and Cairns then it is a zero sum game. Also Pumicestone, Redlands council seats are more socially conservative, less diverse, high median age so if Labor is not making inroads into the regions i dont see why Labor will make inroads there.

Regarding CALD communities. Ethnic working class seats like Woodridge and Inala are often much more deprived than White Working Class seats such as Keppel, Mackay etc. They have lower rates of home ownership, a younger average voter age, lower integenerational wealth so it is much harder for these seats to become more conservative at best Labor could win with lower margins but does not really make it winnable for Centre right parties. It why areas like the Bronx and parts of East London are not really becoming winnable for the Centre Right parties at best Left-wing parties may win them with lower margins. Regarding Middle Class CALD areas like Mansfield or Mount Omananey these areas may not be super socially progressive however, the Queensland LNP dont have the same level of incentive that NSW Libs have for the reason that the Decentralised nature of QLD means there is greater weighting for Anglo seats than in NSW.

Re Abortion
The issue was raised by Robbie Katter of Kap…. he knew exactly how Mr C would react he could not answer as to whether lnp members would get a conscience vote on this issue. . When the obvious and Truthful answer was yes… there is no other choice…. the ex nats representing seats like Warrego are nor impacted by this . The lnp candidates for the most part would not explain where they stood on this issue.
Why did kap do this? The lnp were going to win too well they hoped to force them into a minority so this would deal them into the action . The lnp will at most have 53 seats.. very close to minority…..
The win being top heavy with regional seats will shift the lnp further to the
right.

Miles was dealt a hand of aces by kap and he just played his hand .

Mick/NP, looking back at the campaign I felt Crisafulli was the conservative analogue of Ralph Northam, the successful Democratic nominee for Governor in Virginia 2017. Both were seen as mild mannered but struggled with media performances.

During the campaign, Northam sidestepping questions about illegal immigration and ‘sanctuary cities’, similar to Crisafulli who struggled to give a clear response regarding abortion laws. But in the end, it didn’t matter as the overall political environment (Democratic leaning for Virginia, conservative leaning for Queensland) helped to propel both leaders to comfortable wins.

Once again, for those who need to hear it, the abortion issue arose because Crisafulli could not – or would not – articulate a clear stance on the proposal as raised by the KAP.

“It’s not in our plan” is not an answer. They are weasel words. It wasn’t in my plan to purchase a twix when I went to the petrol station, yet I did.

If Crisafulli had an answer like “My government will defend the law as it stands, and I will not support any attempts by my party, or others, to change the law”, the LNP probably wins north of 60 seats.

The role of kap re their abortion hangrenade is the
Most interesting part of the election… I did not think Robbie Katter was that smart who helped him ?
Does anyone have a clue?
His Dad?
Mr Crisafulli’s internal enemies?
Disgruntled ex nat?

Excuse spelling please

@Real
He would not answer

@Real Talk he did say he was pro-choice and wasn’t gonna change the laws though. And given the LNP’s majority isn’t massive (it’s about the same as the last Labor government’s, i.e comfortable enough for the government to survive but not enough for absolutely everything to be passed) it’s almost certain that the abortion laws won’t change. Labor and the Greens will vote against Robbie Katter’s bill, as will Sandy Bolton and many LNP MPs, it’ll only be KAP and some LNP members who will vote for it so it won’t get passed. How each MP will vote is unknown but we can assume that many if not most of them would oppose changing the laws now that abortion is legal and that more MPs would regret voting against Labor’s bill to legalise abortion or only voted against it because of late-term abortions being allowed in Labor’s laws (DC himself would be among them).

Yes, he courageously revealed his pro-choice stance on October 23, five days before the election, an election where many esteemed experts – including many right here – were forecasting a LNP landslide of biblical proportions. (Where art thou, Daniel? Has Gladstone fallen yet?)

Anyhow, the beauty of Crisafulli being in the big chair at George Street is that we can all judge him now on his actions, not his rhetoric.

@Real Talk Gladstone did swing big but it didn’t fall. It’s starting to look more like it does on federal results.

@NP in qld the mps decide which party they sit with.

based on the results from the qld election id say libs have good prospects in Rankin and Blair.

Can someone please calculate Rankin and Blair on state results from two weeks ago