Podcast #135: LNP takes power in Queensland

I’m calling Aspley and Pumicestone for the LNP. With 45% of primaries it’s almost certain that Amanda Cooper will win Aspley while Ariana Doolan has 41% but One Nation are third and the Greens are fifth, so she’s likely to win there.

In South Brisbane it looks like Labor will win unless the LNP manage to surpass Labor on either postals and/or One Nation preferences which would make it a safe Greens vs LNP seat but currently it’s still Labor vs Greens and Labor is winning because of LNP and One Nation preferences.

Tom Smith must be popular in Bundaberg since it looks like he’s been re-elected there (an extremely shocking win for him since nobody alive ever predicted that he would hold on, he probably even thought he’d lose) as it has voted for a conservative MP at all but two elections since the Nationals won it in 2006. However the redistribution will make Bundaberg an LNP seat because that’s the easiest way to solve the problem with Bundaberg being slightly under quota and Burnett being slightly over quota. But either Tom Smith has a personal vote of at least 6% or the LNP candidate was just bad or a poor campaigner. Maybe the LNP didn’t campaign too much there as they thought it would be a certain gain?

So with those two out of the way, these are the other seats in doubt according to the ABC:

* Gaven (Gold Coast) — Meaghan Scanlon (Labor) barely leads, but One Nation preferences could push Bianca Stone (LNP) in front, this would leave Labor without any seats on the Gold Coast
* Macalister (Logan) — Melissa McMahon (Labor) is ahead, but as with Gaven, One Nation preferences could push the LNP’s Rob van Manen in front
* Mirani (Capricorn Coast) — Steven Andrew (KAP) is currently ahead (albeit barely) of Glen Kelly (LNP) but not on first preferences, so he leads because of Labor preferences (One Nation decided to preference the LNP over KAP here but not anywhere else, this is because Steven Andrew joined KAP after leaving One Nation)
* Mulgrave (Far North Queensland) — Terry James (LNP) leads and is likely to succeed retiring Labor MP and former Speaker Curtis Pitt, but if KAP’s Steven Lesina pulls ahead of Labor’s Richie Bates then KAP would win the seat on Labor and One Nation preferences
* Pine Rivers (Moreton Bay) — Dean Clements (LNP) is barely ahead of Nikki Boyd (Labor), with Greens preferences boosting the Labor vote and One Nation preferences boosting the LNP vote
* Pumicestone (Moreton Bay) — while Ariana Doolan (LNP) only leads Ali King (Labor) by a small margin on first preferences, she is ahead by a small margin on TPP and likely will win because of One Nation preferences
* South Brisbane (Brisbane) — the Greens’ Amy MacMahon leads on first preferences but preferences from Marita Parkinson (LNP) are favouring Barbara O’Shea (Labor) who is currently ahead by a considerable margin; if the LNP pull in front of Labor from either postals or One Nation preferences then the Greens will win comfortably, but if the result remains status quo then Labor will win comfortably

Bundaberg alp has a almost zero margin yet he managed to retain. . His personal vote would have been in excess of 10% in order to win. Compare to near by Maryborough with a swing of maybe 12% and an mp with a large personal vote too.
If i had to pick given alp hold mulgrave kap not so sure. Mirani Kap. Cook lots of counting to go.. outside chance alp or kap

I don’t know of the quality of the lnp candidate in Bundaberg. The quality of the lnp candidate in Redcliffe did not change the result.

I wonder if Tom Smith is like the younger version of either Peter Watson (Albany state MP for WA) or Leon Bignell (Mawson state MP for SA). All three faced long shot odds of winning re-election under a poor/unfavourable environment and yet all of them actually won with small (1-2%) swings in their favour.

If 2028 is like SA 2022 or WA 2017 (elections that saw big swings to Labor after decent or solid conservative victories), then Tom Smith could potentially increase his margin up to 10%.

Labor have pulled ahead in Pine Rivers.

Ali King has conceded to Ariana Doolan in Pumicestone.

There’s a risk that having now lost the Townsville 3, Rockhampton, Mackay and Maryborough, Labor will never win them back. Bathurst in NSW was Labor held until 2011, now it’s ultra safe for Nats. LNP did even better in once Labor held Toowoomba North than Toowoomba South.

The surviving regional MPs (Bundaberg, Cairns and Gladstone) need to be extremely visible. Labor might be able to return to government by finally breaking through in the Gold Coast, and returning to an urbanising Sunshine Coast, but their ceiling will be pretty low without getting back in the game in regional centres.

@Yoh An – Bruce Saunders seemed like that kind of MP, and he only just lost in a seat where I think the LNP would have won 2 to 1 without him (like Gympie).

Regarding the last Premier from North Queensland. William Forgan Smith represented Mackay while Premier. Many of the early premiers were from central or north Queensland. Peter Beattie grew up in Atherton. He represented a South East QLD seat in parliament, just like Crisafulli.

Forgan Smith only landed in Mackay from Glasgow in 1911.
He must have had quite a bit of organising experience to get into Parliament by 1915.
Theodore and Bill MacCormack had been miners and Union officials in the Cairns area.

Theodore and macormack and gillies all north Qld
Tj Ryan Barcoo think that was west qld

The nature of the lnp will largely on the basis of 11 regional seats must shift the balance to the right in terms of lnp caucus what will happen re Cook (assume lost for alp) Rockhampton
Mackay
Keppel
3 Townsville seats
Maryborough
2 Cairns seats
Hervey Bay
In the future I don’t know but in the past they were all seats Labor could hold if on opposition. Well most any way

Bruce Saunders had a big personal vote his margin was about 11% in 2020.
In Wide Bay 2022 the lnp margin was about 10% in the same area

Facts about the election:

Seat margins:
* Most marginal seat: Mirani (50.2% KAP vs LNP; still in doubt)
* Safest seat: Warrego (48.0% LNP)

Seats changing hands:
* Labor gain from Greens: South Brisbane (+11.9%)
* Labor gain from LNP: Ipswich West (–10.3%)
* LNP gain from Labor: Aspley (+5.5%), Barron River (+7.3%), Caloundra (+5.0%), Capalaba (+11.9%), Cook (+12.4%), Hervey Bay (+10.6%), Keppel (+15.9%), Mackay (+17.3%), Maryborough (+14.5%), Mulgrave (+15.0%), Mundingburra (+14.0%), Nicklin (+3.4%), Pumicestone (+6.0%), Redcliffe (+9.5%), Redlands (+6.3%), Rockhampton (+10.3%), Thuringowa (+13.9%), Townsville (+9.1%)

Seats in doubt:
* KAP ahead: Mirani (KAP by 120 over the LNP)
* Labor ahead: Gaven (Labor by 383), Pine Rivers (Labor by 210)

Swings:
* Largest TPP swing to the LNP: Mackay (60.6%, +17.3%)
* Largest TPP swing to Labor: Bundaberg (51.4%, +1.4%)
* Largest TCP swing to Labor: South Brisbane (56.6%, +11.9%)

I’m calling Aspley, Mulgrave and Pumicestone for the LNP and South Brisbane for Labor. That leaves just three seats in doubt: Gaven, Mirani and Pine Rivers. Labor is barely ahead in Gaven and Pine Rivers while KAP are barely ahead in Mirani.

Correct Mick. I think the Barcoo electorate in those days took in the area around Blackall, Tambo etc. Maybe even Barcaldine. If someone can point us towards old Queensland maps I’d be grateful.

In more recent times we’ve had Nicklin from Landsborough (pre-urbanised Sunshine coast), Pizzey represented the now-unfortunately-named electorate of Isis, which took in Childers and Biggenden, Chalk represented Lockyer. Joh of course was from Kingaroy, Ahern had the same seat as Nicklin, Russell Cooper from Roma.

Between Gair and Beattie, a span of 41 years, no Premier represented a Brisbane seat. (If we count Logan as not part of Brisbane, that is)

Np
Mulgrave still uncertain
Pumicestone alp mp conceded

Pizzey represented Isis when he died Labor won the by-election and held till 1974. Labor won again in 1989 held 1992 lost 1998 to onp
Electorate now called Hervey Bay won again 2020
Lost again 2024

More facts:

Seats decided on first preferences:
* LNP: Bonney (54.7%, 64.5%), Broadwater (64.4%, 71.7%), Buderim (50.7%, 61.2%), Burdekin (52.8%, 65.7%), Burleigh (50.0%, 63.3%), Burnett (51.6%, 66.5%), Callide (58.6%, 74.2%), Chatsworth (53.2%, 58.7%), Condamine (60.4%, 74.1%), Gregory (56.9%, 70.5%), Hinchinbrook (50.5%, 66.3%), Kawana (57.3%, 65.5%), Lockyer (53.7%, 70.1%), Maroochydore (60.7%, +1.5%), Mermaid Beach (52.4%, 63.7%), Mudgeeraba (51.3%, 63.6%), Nanango (55.8%, 72.6%), Oodgeroo (56.4%, 62.3%), Scenic Rim (52.6%, 67.6%), Southern Downs (54.0%, 72.9%), Southport (50.8%, 61.0%), Surfers Paradise (62.2%, 73.4%), Theodore (51.3%, 62.8%), Toowoomba North (58.5%, 67.7%), Toowoomba South (55.1%, 65.7%), Warrego (61.3%, 78.0%), Whitsunday (53.1%, 69.6%)
* Labor: Woodridge (53.8%, 68.8%)

Seats where the winner came second on primaries:
* Maiwar (38.2% LNP, 34.0% Greens, 24.9% Labor → 51.5% Greens)
* Maryborough (38.9% Labor, 36.6% LNP, 15.3% One Nation → 52.6% LNP)
* Mirani (36.1% LNP, 27.3% KAP, 20.2% Labor → 50.2% KAP) — still in doubt
* Rockhampton (30.3% Labor, 28.6% LNP, 18.0% Margaret Stretlow, 13.4% One Nation → 51.7% LNP)
* South Brisbane (34.9% Greens, Labor 32.0%, LNP 29.8% → Labor 56.6%)

Other interesting facts:
* Abortion is set to remain legal in Queensland regardless of the LNP’s decision to grant a conscience vote to its MPs, since the LNP’s majority isn’t huge and there are enough pro-choice LNP MPs (Tim Nicholls and Steve Minnikin who voted to legalise it have been re-elected, while Sam O’Connor and presumably David Crisafulli among others would vote to keep it legal, etc; I would assume Ariana Doolan is also pro-choice as she is a 22-year-old woman from Brisbane who is a moderate) elected to keep it legal
* All three KAP seats are now KAP vs LNP contests; previously only Hinchinbrook was but Labor has fallen to third place in Hill and Traeger too now
* One Nation came second in Southern Downs but Greens preferences pushed Labor ahead and thus One Nation didn’t make the TCP

Which seats had the smallest swings to the LNP?

Bundaberg and Everton I think

Even more facts:

Seats where an independent got over 15% of the vote:
* Noosa (independent): 43.7% (–0.2%)
* Rockhampton (Labor → LNP): 18.0% (+18.0%)

Seats where the Greens vote is over 15%:
* Bulimba (Labor): 16.0% (+2.5%)
* Clayfield (Greens): 17.0% (–0.7%)
* Cooper (Labor): 24.8% (–4.8%)
* Ferny Grove (Labor): 19.3% (+4.1%)
* Greenslopes (Labor): 26.6% (+3.1%)
* Maiwar (Greens): 34.0% (–7.3%)
* McConnel (Labor): 24.9% (–3.2%)
* Miller (Labor): 23.6% (+2.9%)
* Moggill (LNP): 20.2% (–0.4%)
* South Brisbane (Greens → Labor): 34.9% (–3.0%)
* Stafford (Labor): 17.3% (+0.9%)
* Toohey (Labor): 18.2% (+5.7%)

Seats where the KAP vote is over 15%:
* Cook (Labor → LNP): 20.1% (+2.9%)
* Hill (KAP): 44.3% (–8.5%)
* Hinchinbrook (KAP): 50.5% (+7.9%)
* Mirani (Labor → KAP/LNP): 27.3% (+27.3%)
* Mulgrave (Labor → LNP): 16.3% (+4.4%)
* Traeger (KAP): 49.7% (–9.2%)

Seats where the One Nation vote is over 15%:
* Cairns (Labor): 17.0% (+11.1%)
* Callide (LNP): 15.1% (+15.1%)
* Gympie (LNP):22.5% (+10.0%)
* Keppel (Labor → LNP): 25.2% (+9.5%)
* Lockyer (LNP): 15.6% (+2.4%)
* Maryborough (Labor → LNP): 15.3% (+2.2%)
* Southern Downs (LNP): 18.5% (+8.4%)
* Whitsunday (LNP): 16.7% (+7.3%)

@Nimalan mostly Brisbane seats, as well as some extremely safe rural seats where the LNP already get a massive TPP vote. The only seats that are LNP vs Labor where there is a swing to Labor are Bundaberg (+1.4%) and Cooper (+0.7%). Both are shocks, I basically wrote off Bundaberg but Tom Smith clearly has a personal vote (he seems like a good bloke but I still would have voted for Bree James, the LNP candidate). Cooper on the other hand I not only thought the LNP would finish first and the Greens second thus electing the Greens but not only did Labor win, Jonty Bush finished first and the Greens vote decreased. If the Greens vote decreased I would’ve assumed the LNP would’ve got a swing to them on TPP but it looks like there’s been a tiny swing to Labor.

Again, a bit presumptuous with your abortion “fact”.

The other stuff is pretty good though NP.

Yes the additions to the lnp from regional areas will probably skew the party to the right.
Interesting there are 2 Towoomba seats Toowoomba nth.the traditionally more marginal seat won by Labor as recently as 2009 now has a bigger margin than Towoomba South the more conservative seat

@Nether Portal – every single one of those over 15% Green seats is an overlap with one of their 4 federal targets. The only other major overlap is Stretton (Moreton) at 13.97% which would have to be one of their better seats.

Those results would not fill any of the federal MPs with confidence. In particular Bates being safe would have been predicated on an assumption – that once you have a Green incumbent they tend to pick up an even larger chunk of the combined left of Liberal vote – which South Brisbane has challenged. Bates needs to think of his seat as a 3 corner contest. Bates and Watson-Brown would also have cause to worry about a swing to LNP, and have picked up nowhere near the profile of Max Chandler Mather (for better or worse). Griffith is probably safe with trends unlikely to get Labor out of 3rd, but with South Brisbane’s results they can’t be certain any more. The swings are positive in the Moreton overlaps but they would much rather have won Miller as a beach head to contest that seat.

Still, those 3 federal seats in 2022 were won on the heels of QLD Greens not quite doing as well as they were hoping to in 2020 (failing to pick up McConnel and Cooper as beach heads into federal Brisbane). The next 6 months or so could be characterised by Greens figuring out what went wrong and being stronger than ever come election day 2025. QLDers vote differently at different tiers after all.

At least 1 in 7 Queenslanders don’t vote for the same party at every level of Government, although that number is slowly shrinking with new/younger voters not seeing the difference between one party at a state, Federal & Local level

Great episode, I wanted to share my thesis behind the drop in Greens support at the 2024 State Election.

As was discussed, it was clear that the support for the Greens did improve slightly state-wide. And while the vote dropped in the inner-city “goats cheese circle”, it evidently grew in the middle and outer rings of Brisbane. Some standouts include Ferny Grove, Greenslopes, Toohey, Inala, Woodridge. The reason why the vote grew in the middle and outer rings might potentially come down to the cost-of-living crisis – leading to an exodus of a cohort of the Greens base, out into these other suburbs.

As was touched on in this podcast, there is a cohort of the Greens vote which is understood to be young renters. It can be observed in 2021 census data that there is a high amount of renters, students and young people which reside in the inner-city, particularly the divisions of McConnel, Maiwar and South Brisbane. As part of the cost-of-living crisis, there was a huge surge in rent around the country, and this was particularly acute in places like inner-city Brisbane and the Gold Coast. There was also a high turnover in tenants as landlords cycled through their tenants to have their rental keep up with market prices. A lot of rental properties were sold in this period too and picked up by owner-occupiers. Subsequently there was extremely low rental vacancy rates. Going only by anecdata, a lot of these young renters were probably priced out of the inner-city, forced to look further afield than usual for a place to live. The issue for the Greens is that this has dispersed and diluted their support more broadly throughout Greater Brisbane, rather than being concentrated into their traditional pockets. This makes it more difficult for them to win their usual state divisions.

As Greens’ base cohort of young-renters migrated out, in their place has possibly been more affluent and politically-moderate residents. My reckoning is that a cohort of new owner-occupier residents in the inner-city are “tealish” like – affluent, highly-educated, middle-aged, established families, white-collar professionals. This is the other cohort of Greens base that was alluded to by Alexis. As Alexis rightly identified, they might be softer Greens voters, interested in things like conservationism and corporate-social-responsibility, but maybe not as interested in Greens’ social-progressivism or leftist economic impulses. Other cohorts moving in could be more typical affluent voters that simply align with the Liberal party, particularly on economic issues.

Not discounting of course that policy and issues was a significant factor too behind the Greens vote shifting out into the outer-suburbs. In fact there would be many factors which would have driven this trend. For example, its clear that the Greens did well in the most Islamic divisions in Queensland, which might have been animated by the Israel Gaza conflict. Greens also made quite sensible selections of diverse candidates that were known to the CALD communities of their respective divisions. Referencing of course, some of the material in this article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/22/low-and-slow-the-tactics-that-have-made-the-greens-a-threat-in-traditionally-safe-queensland-labor-seats

Labor has picked a weak candidate in Moreton.
LNP will win here if they put the efoort in.

Mick Q – you can’t discount the quality of the LNP candidate as a negative while trying to claim a positive personal vote for Tom Smith was a factor.

Like most things I believe there would be alot of factors that have led to this result.

Last I looked Smith had less primary votes than last time, but the LNP lost even more of their primary.

Firstly the low primary vote of the LNP with the challenges of the preference flows from Legalise Cannabis, One Nation, Greens and multiple independents not really being enough to help the LNP.

The sophomore effect for Smith.

Yes the personal vote Smith may have gained after being in for a term. If you remember back to the last election he was an unknown candidate who had only just moved to the seat against a sitting member and former deputy mayor, yet he still won. Now he is known and from what I am told has worked the seat hard.

Speaking of the former LNP member and deputy mayor. He was a high profile member with a long local history in council politics before being in parliament. I suggest even though he lost to Smith he had a high personal vote. The new candidate’s profile is not as high and would not have a personal vote to that level.

On the LNP candidate this election I believe she has a rural agricultural background that you would think better aligns with Burnett than Bundaberg. Probably a better profile and personal vote in that seat…

But there was a large statewide swing and the candidate can still overcome that when the margin was only nine votes by sheer good campaign work. Some of that is on the candidate, but I don’t know how the candidate performed as I haven’t spoken to people on the ground up there.

Some of that campaign work is also on the local party infrastructure which the existing members of parliament in the area are responsible for (Pitt and Bennett). From what I have heard the old block of the Paul Neville era died off and the party membership declined up there severely. On top of that I know a few of their hard working party members and key campaign team members went to One Nation at one stage, plus a separate issue was the fallout from Jack Dempsey leaving the party. There was much damage done by how Dempsey was treated even prior to challenging Pitt.

Lastly, I’m not sure about whether this is a factor but the recent council election had alot of background LNP involvement. The main person running the campaign for the new mayor was a long term LNP and Liberal HQ staffer. That person is now employed by the Mayor’s office. That campaign was rather negative and full of implied promises. If the new mayor raising rates after promising not to and making other decisions proves unpopular it may reflect on the LNP through her LNP staffer…

I think the biggest swing against a party in a booth would have to be the –46.7% swing against Labor in Yarrabah. May be one of the biggest swings against any party in Australian history.

The biggest swing to a party would surely have to be the +53.8% swing to KAP in Aurukun.

Here is a complete(?) list of booths that voted One Nation:

* Gympie: Glenwood, 33.5%
* Keppel: Cawarral, 36.1%
* Keppel: Lakes Creek, 34.4%
* Southern Downs: Toobeah, 59.0%

I think that’s all but there could be more.

Speaking of booth results, I’ve got a big map project coming soon, probably the biggest one I’ve done. Before Christmas I will have a full map of results in EVERY suburb in Queensland that had an election day booth, and every suburb with a prepoll booth. It’s a big task, but I’m up for it.

The highlight of the election is that Newspoll got the primary vote for LNP and ALP right, but were significantly out on the 2PP.

The Ryan Theordore forces planned the alp victory in 1915 very well
Morgan Smith was obviously very prominent in.Mackay. The choice of good alp candidates would have been repeated over and over again

@SEQ Observer, your analysis of the Greens outcome this election is interesting, especially about migration and dispersion of the Greens’ core base. I do agree that the Greens vote is more scattered, making it harder to win or keep seats. The Greens got a very small primary vote swing state-wide. I don’t believe that the shift of Greens voters to middle-ring and outer-ring suburbs explains the shift in support away from the CBD and Brisbane River.

For most of this century so far, the Greens’ core base were inner-city electorates with lots of young renters and uni students. Despite their left-wing economic policies and support for greater public services, they struggled in working-class, often multicultural, middle and outer ring suburbs.

At the 2022 federal election, this changed as there were solid primary vote swings to the Greens in outer Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide. The Greens made some cut-through in CALD communities. This saw some double-digit primaries at various booths, off the back of voter discontent and apathy and voters looking for third party alternatives. These factors also drew voters to independents, UAP, ONP and Libertarians. Remember – this was not long after the pandemic and lockdowns. The issue of Palestine may have boosted the Greens vote, as seen in Woodridge and Stretton, as you pointed out.

I don’t think Greens voters of Maiwar or Moggill or the federal seat of Ryan are rusted-on Greens voters. Such electorates are blue/green and would vote teal if there is a credible teal candidate, who is in favour of free markets but has progressive environmental and social policies. This might explain the swing between Greens and LNP. Such a teal would not propose rent caps or higher taxes for billionaires. This is different to say, Greens voters in South Brisbane, West End or Brisbane’s CBD where Greens voters are rusted-on and are genuinely left-wing.

I think Crisafulli will have a hard time winning a second term while Miles or Dick are around. The victory seemed to be underwhelming judging by the election day trends, so the saving grace was the early vote. Crisafulli will need to make more inroads into Greater Brisbane to ensure a 2028 win.

Ian, I guess Crisafulli is in the same position as other recent Premiers who took office in a weak position (like Chris Minns in NSW, Steven Marshall in SA and Colin Barnett in WA). If Crisafulli remains committed to most of Labor’s agenda and makes only incremental changes, similar to the recently elected NSW Labor government under Chris Minns, he should be able to win another term relatively easily.

The LNP in Queensland should do what the NSW Liberals did and make inroads into ethnic communities, but they still need to hold onto their seats in Townsville and Cairns. Mackay shouldn’t be at risk with such a high margin and the fact that it has trended conservative for a long time now.

Sigh.

LNP supporters, of all people, should know that there is no such thing as a seat that isn’t at risk.

It’s unlikely that Crisafulli will repeat the mistakes of his mentor. But it’s not impossible.

@Real Talk, I would be more concerned about a seat like Caloundra (despite it usually being LNP-held) than a seat like Mackay. It’s on a smaller margin and it has been getting better for Labor while Mackay is the exact opposite.

@ NP
Caloundra really depends on the next redistribution so hard to say. I think it is just the new housing estates more inland which are helping Labor, i dont think the Beachside areas will get better for Labor. It will face a major redistribution next time. I think Coomera is more of a concern for the LNP as it is inland and has more cheaper housing estates.

@Votante, thanks for contributing some of your thoughts regarding the change in the Greens vote. Agree that these are also contributing factors.

I’ve since thought about another major factor that might be driving an exodus in the Greens typical base in places like Ryan and Maiwar.

The change in universities from physical institutions to online institutions has played out over the last 10 years. Really cementing itself since the pandemic. This means that is less necessary than ever to live in proximity to, as an example, University of Queensland St Lucia campus while studying at this institution. In fact, university students are probably more dispersed than ever before. Online-only students could be going about their lives from their hometowns (or suburbs). Students that might only need to travel in for some labs a couple of times a week will probably opt for somewhere more further out than usual (cheaper rent).

Since we understand that a cohort of uni students typically constitute part of the Greens base, the change to university attendance is likely to affect the geographic distribution of this cohort.

The next generation of uni-students will probably no longer be migrating into the typical university suburbs of yesteryear, but will be dispersed all over Greater Brisbane wherever it’s affordable and convenient. Many are likely to just stay at home in their region and never make the migration that was common for a lot of uni students to make upon graduating high-school. I’ve often heard this lamented upon as a terrible social outcome for new university students. The rich social-life often attached to university is decaying as university moves online.

Another aspect of this is that there is more public and active transport options to the universities than before too. Which has enabled new pockets of Brisbane to be ideal for uni students. One example is the St Lucia green bridge connecting to Dutton Park has physically connected suburbs like Annerley and Fairfield to UQ as a community of interest. A potential factor behind the growth in Greens support in Miller. And a factor to watch for Moreton federally.

@SEQ Observer, not really sure about your theory about moving to online learning really would reduce Green Votes given uni classes are mostly back today unlike 2020 (covid year and last QLD Election)

I agree somewhat with the demographic argument, I’ve made it before myself, and some of the other criticisms too. But what screwed the Greens more than anything else was just being flat out irrelevant. Unlike Albo, who can’t stop crying about the dastardly Greens at every press conference he ever holds, Miles lifted wholesale from their platform, immediately implemented some promised a bunch more if he was reelected, found that at least a handful were very popular, and barely mentioned the Greens at all, let alone gave them any credit for it. In a lot of ways it was the complete opposite of the NT election, where the Greens were able to readily exploit furious traditional Labor voters for the ALP’s Tory tribute act. For the past year and especially the past few months, the political news has been lurid coverage of whatever the latest CCTV footage is, followed by the LNP insisting how it was all the Premier’s fault, followed by Miles attempting to distract with new policy announcements. Labor showed progressive voters that it was actually reaching out to them for the first time since taking government, progressives liked what they saw, Labor sent volunteers into the seats they knew were vulnerable to Greens emphasising Labor’s progressive agenda, and the Greens’ campaigners were caught napping.

I remember one of the only times I saw Michael Berkman on the tv recently was when he was complaining about the 50c fares. It just wasn’t good enough apparently. I mean I guess I agree, but since Miles had just slashed them by about 90% it sure looked incredibly petty.

I think the Greens will do better at the federal election for the simple fact that Albo and the federal Labor caucus have entirely bought into triangulation and sobbing about the Greens as campaign strategy, and it will be easier to sell the policy differences, but the Greens are still clearly vulnerable. Rent freezes has been their biggest vote winner and they’re right to continue campaigning on it. Gaza continues to be rightly important to Arab and Muslim voters despite ‘progressive’ white voters, who otherwise consider themselves very worldly and humane, being largely indifferent to it. Drug legalisation is a policy the Greens routinely underrate in importance to the electorate, and a number of Legalise Cannabis candidates once again took sizeable chunks out of the Greens vote where Labor wasn’t gunning directly for them.

As for the general election, it proves to me once again that Labor loses when it lets the right control the agenda. Miles only really recovered in the polls once he committed to acting like a Labor premier. But it was too little, too late, and judging from Albanese’s commentary and even federal Qld caucus members like Anika Wells and Murray Watt, the federal ALP is disinclined to course correct anyway.

@FL
The Greens had an impressive result in Kuraby so the Palestine issue mattered to Arab/Muslim voters.

Here are my ESTIMATES for what the state results on federal boundaries would be: https://jmp.sh/OTHsjWB2

And here are my ESTIMATES for what the BCC results on federal boundaries would be: https://jmp.sh/UgPF7gu4

Note these are only estimates (in caps for a reason). The only ones I’ve actually counted are Leichhardt on state results (primaries) and Ryan on 2020 state and BCC results (TPP/TCP).

I’ve assumed that the candidates ahead in the seats currently in doubt win.

The Muslim community in Queensland is smaller than in NSW and Victoria where there are Muslim independents running federally. They will take the pro-Palestinian vote. But that depends on how they articulate their message. If they are antisemitic, anti-LGBT and pro-“toxic masculinity” as well as pro-Palestinian then white supremacist neo-Nazis might vote for them too because those are all views they hold. White supremacists in America have actually started to valorise Islamic extremists and their ideas in the past few years since they both hold similar extreme views (e.g Nick Fuentes praised the Taliban dictatorship in Afghanistan).