Ben is joined by Alexis Pink from ZZZ to discuss the LNP coming to power in Queensland. We discuss the divide between north and south, the performances of the minor parties and how this new LNP government might differ from the last LNP government.
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I’m calling Aspley and Pumicestone for the LNP. With 45% of primaries it’s almost certain that Amanda Cooper will win Aspley while Ariana Doolan has 41% but One Nation are third and the Greens are fifth, so she’s likely to win there.
In South Brisbane it looks like Labor will win unless the LNP manage to surpass Labor on either postals and/or One Nation preferences which would make it a safe Greens vs LNP seat but currently it’s still Labor vs Greens and Labor is winning because of LNP and One Nation preferences.
Tom Smith must be popular in Bundaberg since it looks like he’s been re-elected there (an extremely shocking win for him since nobody alive ever predicted that he would hold on, he probably even thought he’d lose) as it has voted for a conservative MP at all but two elections since the Nationals won it in 2006. However the redistribution will make Bundaberg an LNP seat because that’s the easiest way to solve the problem with Bundaberg being slightly under quota and Burnett being slightly over quota. But either Tom Smith has a personal vote of at least 6% or the LNP candidate was just bad or a poor campaigner. Maybe the LNP didn’t campaign too much there as they thought it would be a certain gain?
So with those two out of the way, these are the other seats in doubt according to the ABC:
* Gaven (Gold Coast) — Meaghan Scanlon (Labor) barely leads, but One Nation preferences could push Bianca Stone (LNP) in front, this would leave Labor without any seats on the Gold Coast
* Macalister (Logan) — Melissa McMahon (Labor) is ahead, but as with Gaven, One Nation preferences could push the LNP’s Rob van Manen in front
* Mirani (Capricorn Coast) — Steven Andrew (KAP) is currently ahead (albeit barely) of Glen Kelly (LNP) but not on first preferences, so he leads because of Labor preferences (One Nation decided to preference the LNP over KAP here but not anywhere else, this is because Steven Andrew joined KAP after leaving One Nation)
* Mulgrave (Far North Queensland) — Terry James (LNP) leads and is likely to succeed retiring Labor MP and former Speaker Curtis Pitt, but if KAP’s Steven Lesina pulls ahead of Labor’s Richie Bates then KAP would win the seat on Labor and One Nation preferences
* Pine Rivers (Moreton Bay) — Dean Clements (LNP) is barely ahead of Nikki Boyd (Labor), with Greens preferences boosting the Labor vote and One Nation preferences boosting the LNP vote
* Pumicestone (Moreton Bay) — while Ariana Doolan (LNP) only leads Ali King (Labor) by a small margin on first preferences, she is ahead by a small margin on TPP and likely will win because of One Nation preferences
* South Brisbane (Brisbane) — the Greens’ Amy MacMahon leads on first preferences but preferences from Marita Parkinson (LNP) are favouring Barbara O’Shea (Labor) who is currently ahead by a considerable margin; if the LNP pull in front of Labor from either postals or One Nation preferences then the Greens will win comfortably, but if the result remains status quo then Labor will win comfortably
Bundaberg alp has a almost zero margin yet he managed to retain. . His personal vote would have been in excess of 10% in order to win. Compare to near by Maryborough with a swing of maybe 12% and an mp with a large personal vote too.
If i had to pick given alp hold mulgrave kap not so sure. Mirani Kap. Cook lots of counting to go.. outside chance alp or kap
I don’t know of the quality of the lnp candidate in Bundaberg. The quality of the lnp candidate in Redcliffe did not change the result.
I wonder if Tom Smith is like the younger version of either Peter Watson (Albany state MP for WA) or Leon Bignell (Mawson state MP for SA). All three faced long shot odds of winning re-election under a poor/unfavourable environment and yet all of them actually won with small (1-2%) swings in their favour.
If 2028 is like SA 2022 or WA 2017 (elections that saw big swings to Labor after decent or solid conservative victories), then Tom Smith could potentially increase his margin up to 10%.
Labor have pulled ahead in Pine Rivers.
Ali King has conceded to Ariana Doolan in Pumicestone.
There’s a risk that having now lost the Townsville 3, Rockhampton, Mackay and Maryborough, Labor will never win them back. Bathurst in NSW was Labor held until 2011, now it’s ultra safe for Nats. LNP did even better in once Labor held Toowoomba North than Toowoomba South.
The surviving regional MPs (Bundaberg, Cairns and Gladstone) need to be extremely visible. Labor might be able to return to government by finally breaking through in the Gold Coast, and returning to an urbanising Sunshine Coast, but their ceiling will be pretty low without getting back in the game in regional centres.
@Yoh An – Bruce Saunders seemed like that kind of MP, and he only just lost in a seat where I think the LNP would have won 2 to 1 without him (like Gympie).