Podcast #135: LNP takes power in Queensland

@Niamlan i believe Np was gonna do the whole of qld based off the state results.

@ John
OK if NP will do all 30 seats that will be fantastic 😊

@nimalan based off the swings in ipswich and ipsich west alone id say blair would likely flip or be ltra marginal. rankin likely a marginal seat. griffith would likely be green ryan lnp and brisbane labor. lnp would gain some ground in lilley moretona nd oxley but they would likely still be safe labor seats

@Nimalan yes when the final TPP comes out in every seat. I haven’t checked the ECQ website today so if it’s already out then I’ll do it as soon as I can (I’ll probably do some calculations next week). Then I will make a map which I will allow to be published on Wikipedia.

I just checked and the TPP is out (at least in some seats). I’ll do the Leichhardt calculation first as it’s easy and then I’ll do the ones I commented the formula for. Then I’ll get to the other seats.

If anyone can tell me which suburbs/booths are in each electorate then that would be appreciated as it would make things easier.

I’ve done Leichhardt (the results were virtually identical) so that’s 1/93 done, 92 more to go. Hopefully I finish it before Christmas.

Seats without a finalised official preference count yet (as per the ECQ website, ABC has estimates though):

* Algester — Labor hold
* Broadwater — LNP hold
* Bundaberg — Labor hold
* Bulimba — Labor hold
* Callide — LNP hold
* Caloundra — LNP gain
* Capalaba — LNP gain
* Coomera — LNP hold
* Hinchinbrook — KAP hold
* Jordan — Labor hold
* Macalister — Labor hold
* Mackay — LNP gain
* Maryborough — LNP gain
* Mirani — LNP gain
* Morayfield — Labor hold
* Mulgrave — LNP gain
* Mundingburra — LNP gain
* Pumicestone — LNP gain
* Redcliffe — LNP gain
* Redlands — LNP gain
* Toohey — Labor hold
* Traeger — KAP hold

All of these 22 seats have estimate TPP/TCP counts on the ABC website calculated by Anthony Green using estimated preference flows but the ECQ hasn’t got a final count in any of those seats. However, every seat has an official first preference count that is finalised and available on their website. And it’s pretty clear who won those seats. We also know who will make the TPP/TCP count in every seat (in all of the LNP and Labor seats except Mirani it’ll be a traditional TPP contest while Mirani will be LNP vs KAP and the two KAP seats will be KAP vs LNP).

@ NP
I have posted in the Rankin thread with what suburbs/booths are in it. I will do Petrie later
@ John
NP has already determined that Ryan is a Labor seat based on state results. Also Labor did better on a state level two weeks than they did Federally in May 2022 so i am not sure how many seats are actually more marginal. It actually looks like Petrie and Longman are actually better for Labor. Rankin looks fairly safe looking at a quick glance of all the overlapping state seats. Also Blair also included parts of Bundamba, Jordan and Nanango in addition to Ipswich seats.

@Nimalan I suspect that Labor voters tactically vote for the Greens in Ryan similar to how they vote for teals in teal seats, it’s just not enough on the state level because in NSW the Coalition has the same climate policies as Labor.

Because of tactical voting the Greens will probably hold on in Ryan this time since Dutton is more conservative whereas in Brisbane I reckon Labor voters will actually vote Labor and knock the Greens out of the TCP and win on Greens preferences. Brisbane won’t flip back until a moderate leader and a moderate candidate comes along. Trevor Evans didn’t lose because of himself, he lost because of Scomo and the general trend against the LNP. I still expect the LNP to claw back ground north of the Brisbane River on the council level in 2028 but they might do worse in the working-class suburbs if Labor stop being useless and if there is chaos in the state and potentially federal LNP governments, but overall I would expect Schrinner to be re-elected.

Also, thanks for posting the Rankin suburbs. I will calculate those results when Algester is finalised and I’ll do Petrie when Redcliffe is finalised. In the meantime, I’ll have a look at Brisbane.

I agree

I agree Nether Portal many Labor and even some moderate Liberals will hold their nose and vote for Elizabeth Watson-Brown even if they are turned off by MCM as many want Climate action and want the Libs to moderate. i have mentioned before if they have Dan Tehan or Susan Ley as leader and announced a 2030 target the LNP would probably win Ryan back.

@Np I disagree. Albo is going down the toilet and as evidenced by Abbott in 2010 and 2013 and then Scomo in 2019 most people like the conservative approach because the liberals actually stood for something. It was 2016 under Turnbull they went backwards. Atm albo doesn’t have any real stance on much and is basically running on a not Peter Dutton platform. We all know how that worked out for the Democrats in the US. The only place the Democrats look like they have a future in any of the swing states is Arizona which has started turning Blue since the death of John McCain. Other long term blue states like New Mexico, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, Minnesota are becoming swing states and Trump broke the blue wall again. If you look at the senate races in those states too the republicans were mighty close too and could have almost gotten 2-3 more senators. Dutton will move into labor heartland here too. Seats like shortland Hunter Bruce Holt will likely trend towards the Libs. I’m almost ready to say that Albo will lose the next election and be the first one term.govt since Scullin. A Dutton govt is not far off the cards and I reckon if Albo waits til May he’s gone. I wouldn’t rite off Ryan or Brisbane for the LNP because the shift to labor I reckon was because of the abortion scare campaign. If the LNP can take votes off labor as well as or instead of the greens they will likely win both seats. I’m saying that right now a minority Liberal govt is just as likely as a minority labor govt.

@nimalan while maybe true they would not win the outer suburban Labor seats they’re targeting because when you go Labor light people just vote regular Labor instead. While Dutton may sacrifice seats like those he stands to gain more seats so it’s a question of sacrificing some to gain others

I actually think there’ll be a drop in Elizabeth Watson-Brown’s primary vote in Ryan. The Greens vote will disperse a bit from Inner Brisbane to the outer suburbs in Rankin and Oxley and to some extent, Moreton. There was a surge in Labor’s primary vote in Maiwar, which makes Labor more confident in Ryan, though there’s a slim chance of Labor winning it at the federal election.

A likely scenario is that the Labor vote increases in Ryan but the Greens decline but still come second on primaries and yet retain.

@Darth Vader polling showed that if Tony Abbott stayed he would’ve lost in 2016. I think the Liberals could’ve held onto Warringah and gained Macnamara if they kept Malcolm Turnbull since Michael Danby was unpopular and the Liberals came close in 2016, plus they still would’ve held government. This is not a diss against Abbott or Scomo though as they did good things in government, I would happily vote for either of them. Dutton is further to the right than Abbott. Also Abbott won in 2016 because Labor were out of touch and introduced things like the carbon tax as a condition of Greens support which could happen again if Labor get minority government which I think they will. People wouldn’t switch to Labor because the Liberals become more moderate, but they would if they became more conservative.

@Votante I agree but the Greens will hold on sadly as unfortunately Dutton’s rhetoric won’t play out well in Ryan. I’ve suggested before that some seats might swing even further given the knifing of Turnbull was orchestrated by Dutton in 2018.

@nether portal while true if they had of kept turnbull in 2019 instead of switching to Morrison they would have lost also

@John I don’t think they would’ve to be honest. It would’ve been the same as 2019. People didn’t despise Morrison at the time and they didn’t despise Turnbull either.

The Adani mine issue would’ve still happened and while Turnbull may not have been as pro-coal as Scomo the LNP still would’ve got One Nation preferences in Queensland seats. Under Turnbull they could’ve even picked up Lilley and Moreton, leaving Labor with just Blair, Griffith, Oxley and Rankin (and Labor would’ve only won the primary vote in Oxley and Rankin).

@ Nether Portal
I concur with you and would also states that issues such as negative gearing, franking credits would have still played out. Also i think Griffith could have been won in 2019 if Turnbull had not been ousted it did actually swing to Libs in 2016 and is a bit like Macnamara (Blue/Green seat). Also the budge was projected to return to surplus so Libs could have been more popular than in 2016. There was not much actual difference in policy between Scomo in 2019 and Turnbull just one year earlier anyway. Scomo did not pull out of Paris and Turnbull had not committed to Net Zero yet.

*budget

The problem was the party didn’t like the path turnbull was taking them down

@John that wouldn’t have affected the election result. Dutton wanted to move the party rightwards and thus the spill happened. But to Dutton’s dismay he didn’t ever become PM (Scomo did) and he may never become PM (if he is ousted or resigns).

If Turnbull was leader they would’ve won Warringah too I think. On the state level it’s still a Liberal seat.

Doubtful. Scomo saved the 2019 election as they went backwards under Turnbull in QLD. . Dutton has a good shot at winning the next election now

In the same way trump saved the republicans party from being irrelevant. They use to be the party of the rich and the elites but they have transformed into the party of the workers. There are very few votes to be won being Labor lite. While yes turnbull saved them in 2016 that was more to do with Abbott then the actual policies. Trump probably saved the republicans in the same way. He took them from a party that was standing for nothing and made it about the people. I think we will soon see once democrats states become swing states. Under trump swing states like Ohio and Florida are now solid red.

John, whilst Trump and Morrison have captured the working class vote it is essentially a trade off with the party losing some of its soft support amongst affluent or well educated voters.

Colorado and Virginia are two other states that used to be swing like, with George W bush winning them in both of his victories, but trump failed to capture either in any of his 3 elections. In fact, both states have democratic margins that are the equal or stronger than under Obama.

For Australia, this would be seen in some of the teal seats which have seen swings to Labor under 2pp terms. Overall, the trade off to exchange educated voters for those who are more working class has been beneficial for the conservative parties.

@yoh Virginia has been attributed to the fact the democrats voting residents of dc have. Moved out of the capitol into neighbouring Virginia. They by flipping it. Colorado has trended democrats for some time.

@John he went backwards by two seats because of preference leakage.

The Adani mine issue still would’ve happened and One Nation still would’ve preferenced the Coalition.

@Yoh An, Virginia and Colorado went from solid red states to solid blue states without being purple or swing states. Obama flipped them blue in 2008 and thanks to urbanisation and white-collar jobs and high tech jobs, they turned solidly blue. Trump narrowed the margins in both states this time around as he did in NJ and NY and other blue states.