Last night’s election result was nothing like the wipe-out expected when the LNP was on 55-56% of the two-party-preferred vote back in September, but it’s still reasonably clear. Overall the scale of the defeat looks similar to Labor’s victory in 52 seats in 2020. Under Queensland’s unicameral system, that’s enough to govern comfortably.
I think there’s two interesting angles here – the regional nature of Labor’s losses, and how the minor parties (in particular the Greens) polled quite well but not where it was needed. There are also some interesting races where a 3CP count could come in handy.
In this post I’m going to run through a few statewide maps and explain the trends.
Labor suffered modest losses in urban South-East Queensland but were almost wiped out in the regions.
Of fourteen Labor seats outside the south-east, they’ve either lost, or are currently behind, in eleven of them. And they could still fall behind in Bundaberg. They have retained Gladstone and Cairns, but have otherwise lost everything – all three Townsville seats, two in Cairns, plus seats like Rockhampton and Mackay that they held on to in 2012.
About two thirds of Labor’s seats were in south-east Queensland, and the losses have been much more modest. They are currently trailing in seven seats in that area, but they are also in front in South Brisbane and have won back Ipswich West.
This map shows three different views of the partisan outcome – the two-party-preferred swing, which party is currently leading (with those confirmed in darker colours and those not confirmed in lighter), and a third map highlighting the seats that have changed hands, or at least have a different party in the lead.
Labor’s position across Brisbane still looks pretty solid, with a few losses around the outer edges of the urban area in the Redland and Moreton Bay council areas.
Generally the swings to the LNP are smaller in the Brisbane area, and there are pockets of big swings up the coast – Gladstone and Whitsunday stand out. Inala also stands out, but this is compared to 2020 when Annastacia Palaszczuk was the sitting MP.
Labor currently has a positive swing in two seats: Everton will likely reverse, and it’s fascinating to see that Labor has a 1.3% swing in Bundaberg, which was their most marginal seat in 2020. A good case demonstrating the value of sophomore surge.
The Greens had a rough night but amazingly didn’t actually go backwards overall. Their statewide vote at the moment is up 0.1% from 2020.
But if you look at this next map, which shows swings for the Greens and can be toggled to show the same for One Nation, you see that they were hit hard in the inner city.
The three biggest swings against the Greens were in three of their key seats, with South Brisbane ranked sixth. They have suffered their biggest swing in Maiwar, where Michael Berkman is in a tight race to hold on.
But their best seats were also in Brisbane. They got solid swings in the next ring of seats, in seats like Miller, Greenslopes and Bulimba. This isn’t necessarily bad news for the federal seat of Griffith, since these include the weaker parts of Max Chandler-Mather’s seat. They also gained a 4% swing in Ferny Grove while losing 4% in neighbouring Cooper.
I won’t try to answer the question of why this has happened, but it’s been clear that Miles comeback strategy has been quite effective at appealing to Greens inner-city voters.
This result has some parallels with Greens results in the NSW local government elections, where they lost seats in the inner city but gained seats in the outer suburbs, and the ACT election where some of their best swings were in the outer suburbs. Those results can be quite effective in PR systems but is a disaster if you’re the Greens trying to win in Queensland’s single-member system.
One Nation also had quite a big share of the vote but didn’t come that close to winning any seats. They cracked 20% in two seats, but generally spread their vote around in a very inefficient manner.
The story is different for Katter’s Australian Party. While there were rumours of KAP overtaking Labor and winning in urban Townsville seats that didn’t pan out, right now they are slightly ahead in a fourth seat and could come from behind to win in Mulgrave. Winning five seats off 2.4% of the vote would cement their position as a regionalist party who are able to win disproportionate numbers of seats with a concentrated vote. Indeed five seats would be about double their share of the vote.
Still despite KAP’s wins the number of crossbench seats looks about the same – the current seven could drop to four, or could be as high as nine. And the number of non-classic seats is not that high. There are currently seven races with a non-major candidate in the top two, and Mulgrave and Rockhampton could put that up to nine.
But if you look at the raw vote, the minor party vote is quite high, well over 20%. It’s not as high as the peak One Nation years of 1998 and 2017, but it’s otherwise the highest. Yet the crossbench is quite small, because of all of that inefficient Greens and One Nation vote.
Finally, I am not in this post going to go through all the seats still in play, but I wanted to mention three seats where a three-candidate-preferred count would be super useful.
In the federal election, the AEC conducted 3CP counts in Brisbane and Macnamara which helped call those seats sooner. In both seats, the 3CP was decisive in determining the winner, not the 2CP. I don’t know if the ECQ would consider doing something similar, but it would be very useful in three seats.
In South Brisbane, the reversal of LNP preferences to favour Labor, along with a swing from the Greens to Labor, means that Labor easily wins a Labor vs Greens 2CP count. But if the LNP can overtake Labor on the 3CP, it’s very likely the Greens would win on Labor preferences.
Right now, the gap between Labor and LNP on primary votes is 3%. There is also 3.2% of One Nation votes to distribute. That would not be enough to close a 3% gap, but if the LNP creep closer it could be done. Right now it looks very likely that Labor will win but that 3CP would clarify things.
In the Cairns-area seat of Mulgrave, the LNP is leading Labor on the 2PP with 52.7%, but the two parties have less than half the primary vote between them.
Katter’s Australian Party candidate Steven Lesina is 5.8% behind Labor on primary votes, with 32% of the vote sitting with other candidates. If KAP can overtake Labor they would have a good shot at winning.
In Rockhampton, the LNP’s Donna Kirkland has 51.7% of the 2PP. She is 10.3% ahead of independent Margaret Strelow but there’s almost 23% of the vote with others. Probably a too big gap to close but worth watching.
That’s it for now. I’ll be recording a podcast this morning, so depending on editing time it might be out around midday or late tonight.
Not the result I was expecting, but still the party I was expecting.
Firstly, I was indifferent to who won. I voted 1 Greens, 2 LNP, 3 Labor 4 ON. I did this not because I am a rusted on Greens voter, but I would put myself on the progressive side of the balance sheet. Nevertheless, most elections I generally vote 1 Greens (because I want to see more progressive policies) and 2 Labour. But this time, it was an “Its Time” election for me – Labor had run its course.
If I was within the Labor machine, I would think they would be quite chuff with the result (apart from losing). They kept the loss to a reasonable level (assuming 51 seats for the LNP) from which it keeps the LNP on their toes and Labor can easily return to power next time. Four years is enough time to bring about different externalities, different issues and more chance to see the LNP in action to make an proper assessment on what they actually did, which might make a few people reassess their vote next time. I don’t think the next 4 years is going to be kind to any incumbent government, so in one respect this may work in Labor’s favour come the next election.
Personally I am not a believer in one election has implications for other levels of governments or other states etc. Each election is different, fought at different times, fought on different issues and within an often completely different context. So I wouldn’t draw anything too much out of this election, other than the observation that (more so Labor) this is a continuation of the long slow decline of the two major parties.
The collapse of the The Greens vote was interesting. Again, I vote Greens, but I would hate to see them in power based on what I see and hear of them now (they need to continue maturing). But for me, the Greens being there as a semi-strong force is the only thing that is putting the brakes on Labor completely selling out and going all corporate.
Which electorates if you don’t mind sharing
@ Darth Vader
Toohey
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/qld/2024/guide/tooh
Definitely an interesting election night with a result I wasn’t expecting.
I think one of the interesting takeaways is the change over the night as election day votes were tallied which looked like a hung parliament or a very narrow majority vs prepoll and postal votes which swung the election much more to an LNP majority.
It’s definitely clear that the election swung back to Labor in the final week. Interesting on ABC last night the panellists were arguing for a move back to election day voting. In an earlier era, Labor just might have won the election based on more historic splits of election day vs postal and prepoll voting.
@macca yea because a lot of people can’t get to a polling booth on election day or whatever reason all they would do is cause long queues and make people very unhappy and stop people from voting especially the elderly and other disadvantaged groups
I wonder what will happen with Bundaberg.
Darth, how do you think the EC’s coped 20 years ago when 90%+ voted on the day?
@Ian I think Labor will lose it as more of the votes are counted. Very respectable result for Smith either way though, when you consider how bad the swing was in much of regional Queensland, the fact that the seat keeps ousting incumbent MPs after one term, and on top of that how Bundaberg has been voting to the right of the statewide result for some time now. Labor would be fools not to preselect him again in 2028.
Agreed, Laine.
Unless voters see the federal Coalition as too hard right I would expect Ryan to go back to the LNP and Brisbane to go to Labor.
As for whether Clayfield is a Labor target I don’t think it will be simply because of the upcoming redistribution. The only real solutions to the inner-city issue all involve making Clayfield safer for the LNP by moving it further east. This would make either Cooper, McConnel or Stafford better for Labor, however. I’ve moved the boundary to Clayfield itself and mucked around with Stafford to keep the Brisbane CBD itself in McConnel.
Hopefully the relatively narrow margin will stop the LNP from doing any particularly stupid Newman level political moves and will mean they are a (bit) more moderate.
The greens metro collapse was surprising (especially in my seat of Maiwar), especially as Berkman is a decent member, but I think support for some stupid policies (Israel/Palestine, CFMEU support, Lack of support for federal reforms), some encroachment from Miles, and a lack of focus on local issues, hurt them particularly with progressive professionals that live in these seats.
Ultimately I think this election shows that if Labor took a tougher approach to youth crime (even at least performatively) they could have won this election. It will be interesting if Crisafulli isn’t able to get the numbers down however, will the media turn on him or will it stopped being talked about?
@Mr Snrub I don’t think this election shows that Labor could’ve won if it took a tougher approach on youth crime. That’s what NT Labor did, and they lost votes on the left and the right. Because ultimately, the Liberals will always be the toughest on crime. You can’t “out-LNP” the LNP. I actually think Steven Miles being populist and differentiating himself helped prevent a total Labor wipeout. If Steven Miles focused on being “tough on crime” instead of having progressive cost-of-living policies, he would’ve lost votes to The Greens in the city, and lost more votes to the Libs in the outer suburbs and the regions. It probably would’ve been a total wipeout of Labor.
Maiwar is definitely a progressive professional seat, if the teals had got to it before the Greens they would do well here. The greens need to be careful not to lose the progressive professional vote while chasing the renter, youth, and more solid left vote in general.
@Nether Portal
Elizabeth Watson Brown hasn’t been seen anywhere in Ryan, and many voters are frustrated with her grandstanding and refusal to work with Labor. Given that the Scott Morrison factor is gone, I think Ryan should comfortably swing back to the LNP.
@Nether Portal
Elizabeth Watson Brown hasn’t been seen anywhere in Ryan, and many voters are frustrated with the federal Greens performative antics. Given that the Scott Morrison factor is gone, I think Ryan should comfortably swing back to the LNP.
I don’t think Miles populist policies and being tough on youth crime is an either/or, he could have done both (and I think it would be a popular combination).
But I do somewhat agree, given the amount of time Miles had to change things, he made pretty much the best choices he could. The negative perception of labor on youth crime had already stuck under Anna and I don’t think Miles could have unstuck it in time he had.
I think bundaberg and pumicestone will definitely swing LNP as counting continues
Probably Cairns, gaven and springwood too i would put my money on it
@Mr Snrub
I don’t watch much TV news, especially 7 or 9, but every time I saw the first 10 minutes of their 6pm news it was saturated with “youth crime” issues. Now I am sure that it is a very real issue for some, but like a lot of other matters – perceptions and cold hard facts often differ widely. I don’t blame people for getting caught up in the perceptions, we are hard wired for uncritically accepting that sort of thing, but I willing to gamble that those news items will quietly drop off the main news stories. It will be interesting if someone does the analysis of youth crime news stories on mainstream commercial news pre and post elections. Admittedly it works well for TV News broadcasters as well, so it might not disappear completely.
In a past life I worked at Logan City Council and one of those jobs was working on Safety Cameras that we installed in various places around the city. Youth crime was a problem then (late 1990s) and it will forever be an issue, unless the LNP are prepared to just lock kids up or spend big bucks on rehabilitation. As a town planner I also see no easy solution for the “housing issue” as this is a problem all around the world and if there was an easy solution we would have done something by now. We upzoned the hell out of Logan, but no one has taken up these opportunities, despite it being Code Assessable development, so IMHO supply and planning controls are not the core issue.
Ultimately, I think the LNP have gone down the fear path, but they will soon find out that governing is never easy. To effect change you have to make politically difficult and unpopular decisions and DC may not have the stomach to do so if he feels it may result in a one term government.
@dragons I already did.
We can see now that Curtis Pitt’s personal vote was about 20%. The Labor vote fell 27.4% and the average from the other two Cairns seats was 7.6%.
@redistributed not really. Because unlike the other two seats the labor vote fractured across a multitude of parties not just the LNP.
And half of that lost vote came back on preferences
Ben: Two questions? Was there a late swing to Labor that was not caught by early pre-poll voters or does the pre-poll result just reflect no more than the continuing trend to being more conservative post covid given that aged voters vote more conservatively and more vote pre-poll? And second does the swings against Greens in inner south Brisbane seats indicate that voters are getting sick of their “obstruction” to Albanese policies on housing etc? If the answer to the second question is yes then this result could be a double bonus for Albo? Clearing the air for Labor federally in 2025 & maybe strengthening the hand of the more constructive Green group in Canberra?
@Roger Roughead I think the 2pp swings to Labor in the South Brisbane electorate are a direct result of the LNP’s changing preference decision.
Also I had a look at the One Nation vote, which stayed relatively stable in most electorates but also swung wildly in some. Here are the biggest swings:
Callide: +15.4% (not contested in 2020)
Cairns: +11.1%
Gympie: +10%
Keppel: +9.9%
Southern Downs: +8.6%
Whitsunday: +8.3%
Traeger: +6.7% (not contested in 2020)
Hill +6.5% (not contested in 2020)
Jordan: -4.9%
Ipswich West: -5.9%
Ipswich: -6.7%
Bundamba: -6.8%
Mirani: -20.8%
I find it absolutely infuriating that anyone would place a vote to a party that they would hate to see in power! I mean WTAF!
Dive into how your vote can and will make a positive difference if placed in the hands of a party that you believe will do the very best to govern and which aligns with your personal beliefs, interests and convictions.
You might as well stay at home because you’ve effectively wasted you vote! Let’s face it matured or not the greens will never in ten lifetimes be in a stable enough position to govern the fleas on a dogs back let alone the good people of QLD or Australia for that matter. Unwashed, radical extremism tip toeing on the edge of issues that are divisive and explosive are the way the greens operate and in all honesty what have that party contributed to the State and or Country that has made it a better place?
Look at all of the solar panels now scattered across prime farming lands,
along with the destruction of pristine wilderness areas with all of the, proven to be worthless wind turbines, all along the coastlines and some parts of the interior. Come on if people fail to see just how destructive to the environment the erection of these things is we are all doomed. As for the solar panels, every single government building, school, military establishment, industrial complex and shopping centre should be covered in solar panels well before any lands be then for lands and or natural bush or tropical rainforest should be touched period!
Well that’s my rant I need to stop typing as my blood pressure is increasing and my heartbeats are worth more to me than this.
Good luck
I think this directly correlates to the individual candidates. Their candidates in Gympie, Cairns and Southern Downs ran very strong campaigns. Their Whitsunday candidate is a popular former mayor, who represented the northern part of the electorate. And obviously James Ashby in Keppel is high profile and ran a very active campaign. Conversely, their candidates in Ipswich, Jordan, Ipswich West and Bundamba were announced very late and didn’t run much of a campaign. And obviously they dumped their sitting Mirani MP, hence the big swing away in Mirani.
The victor (LNP) was no surprise to anyone. I’ll give the LNP credit here. However, there were a few surprises here and there on the seat level.
@A A “Because ultimately, the Liberals will always be the toughest on crime. You can’t “out-LNP” the LNP. I actually think Steven Miles being populist and differentiating himself helped prevent a total Labor wipeout.”
I agree with you that you can’t out-conservative the conservatives. Kos Samaras mentioned that following Labor’s NT election loss. To his credit, Miles really upped the ante in the final month and saved a lot of furniture, especially in metro Brisbane. Cameron Dick said last night that they were down 57:43 as late as July (I think). One way Miles could’ve done was linked the 50c transport fares with boosting access to employment and education opportunities for young people and making them feel more included in society.
I reckon that Labor left the changeover to Steven Miles too late. Mid-last year would’ve been the sweet spot to allow time to establish himself and differentiate from his predecessor.
Maryborough has also been gained by the LNP.
We will likely see the KAP be a force that will at some point likely to hold balance of power. They will likely win mirani this time around and probably win cook and mulgrave at the next election
Projected 52/93 is a small absolute majority.
The thing that changed some of the seats and gave the lnp its handful of Brisbane seats was the difference between the polling booths on the day and the prepoll/ postal
Read some of the posts on.pollbludger you will see some of the role of kap re abortion they threatened to put up a private members bill to reverse the 2018 changes to the abortion laws. Mr C responded we have no plans to change the law. Next question ” will you allow a conscience vote on this issue? No answer….kap knew exactly how he would respond this refusal to answer undermined any trust people had in the lnp promises on issues other than abortion
Why did kap do this?
The lnp were going to win too well… they needed to take the wind out of their sails and try to cause a hung parliament which would deal kap into the process.
This almost occurred the lnp appear to have 52 to 53 out of 93 seats. Look on pollbludger and see the swings of the on.the day polling booths and the prepoll/postal votes there are big differences.
Looking at if the Gaza Issue affected Labor for Muslim Voters, it seem like it did as here are the results for the Muslim heavy polling booth of Kuraby
Greens (Candidate is Muslim) has 41.0% with +31.3%
Labor has 35.8% with -26.1% swing
This does indicate Muslim voters moving away from Labor to The Greens.
There is however almost no difference for the ALP vs LNP TPP results which in fact had a slight positive swing so does mean they probably do know The Libs are more pro-Israel than Labor and willing to still put Labor above the LNP
Hi Ben. Why do you use the same colour for the KAP and the ALP in the “leading party” map? It’s confusing.
That’s huge. I suspect having a Muslim candidate helped. Labor has a Palestinian candidate in Calwell which should moderate some of that effect, although it seems likely the Greens will win Wills.
Interesting to see such a big swing when the Queensland state parliament is so irrelevant to a war happening on the otherside of the world.
Yeah I guess they look similar. But they’re not the same. One is brown and the other is dark red. Adding KAP was a new thing.
Roger Roughhead
You are correct that older voters are over represented in pre poll voting but pre poll voting is a younger demographic than the volunteers on the pre poll. The only young volunteers seem to Be parliamentary staffers and Union officials plus a few uni students.
What did stand out was that in Murrumba/ Bancroft ALP, LNP, legalise cannabis Party and DLP manned pre polls. Missing for great majority of prepoll were independents, Family First and Greens
I suspect Greens pulled all of their supporters into the inner city. This contrasted with the Voice Referendum where a. Lot of the Yes volunteers in Burpengary Morayfield booths had been dhoppped in from the inner city. The Voice Referendum should have alerted the ALP to the fact that they can not be inner city trendies and still gain support of outer suburbs.
The results for the Greens are fairly disappointing and a warning sign for the party, but the results also aren’t “disastrous” as much of the media is claiming.
Losing a seat as well as going backwards in inner-city target seats – the Greens’ base – is a poor result. However, the Greens state-wide vote has stayed level with 2020 which suggests losing ground in key areas and gaining in less strategically important areas. There’s definitely more bad than good, but still, it’s not as bad as words like “disastrous” suggest.
Unfortunately when it comes to analysis of results from single member district elections, there is a tendency like we are seeing now to draw overly strong binary judgements about the results. It’s a bit like the Brisbane City Council elections: the Greens did fairly well, reduced Labor to minor party vote shares in most of the inner-city and now sit within a few thousand votes of winning a swag of marginal LNP council seats in 2028. Yet, because of the winner-takes-all system of single member districts, the Greens BCC result was largely branded a failure because in many seats they narrowly failed to cross the threshold of flipping the seats. Disappointing, but much to be happy about, and certainly not a failure.
Also, we should remember that winning single-member seats for the Greens, and for that matter, third parties, is always a difficult task. The Greens often say that they are poised to win a swag of seats, but in reality I think it would be better for expectations management to be more humble. The fact is that the Greens winning a swag of seats like in the 2022 Federal is more an aberration than the norm. More often at elections than not, the Greens fail to win seats or only win one at best. This new idea that the Greens are suddenly going to pick up a swag of seats or at least more than one seat is not a prediction that is grounded in recent historical fact.
The Greens will obviously start thinking about what went wrong, and that process often strengthens a party if done right. Unfortunately some in the party seem to be in somewhat of a state of denial about the poor results. For example, Adam Bandt’s press statement today complaining that “if Labor is focused on fighting the Greens, the Liberals get to take over” was pretty ridiculous and mimicked the kind of absurd fear mongering I thought only Labor party “operatives” say. It’s almost like some in the Greens were offended that Steven Miles adopted some policies the Greens typically campaign on (like largely free public transport) and are bitter about that.
I think the better approach would have been to bank these as wins and policy concessions but also to give Labor some credit. Bandt’s statement is an example of this kind of student politics style and hack rhetoric/mentality, and I don’t think this is a particularly healthy mentality for the party to engage in self-reflection.
@GPPS when someone as passionate and as loyal as you are to the Greens party writes a post as well-reasoned and balanced like this, it indicates 2 things: One, you’ve got an objective and unbiased lens towards the situation and Two, the Greens have clearly tried to bite off more than they could chew and failed miserably.
If only they had the sense to agree with what you’ve written and work on that to get more seats instead of just grandstanding and blaming Labor when they’ve clearly managed to sandbag their seats against the odds whilst the Greens are facing a possibility of halving their parliamentary representation. Ironically they talk about the LNP and the right when in South Brisbane, a leakage of their preferences could see Amy MacMahon reelected. So in essence, they might have to thank the LNP if the Greens win South Brisbane because it’s their votes that would put them over the line more than their own efforts like the other state/federal seats.
I would be cautious about overstating the difference between prepoll and polling day as solely due to a swig back to Labor late in the campaign. Every election I have been involved in the prepoll booth is strong for the LNP and election day is better for Labor. Alot of it isn’t a swing back, it’s just Labor voters tend to be more likely to vote on the day.
Greens have missed the good news story – the way for Labor to take them on in their “winnable” and even “safe” seats and win is to move to the left and smother the space where Greens would like to campaign with ambitious policies like 50c fares. Maybe they can’t say that out loud but they might be able to get some traction from Labor in housing negotiations now.
Labor probably did waste Brisbane resources fighting Greens but would it have been enough to save them in enough seats to form government?
If McMahon does somehow win in South Brisbane because of a stronger Liberal and One Nation vote, she’ll need to be very careful with how she messages it. Our system is far far better than first past the post, but it gets weird when 3 parties get about 1/3rd of the vote, and a party doing better causing their least favourite party to beat their 2nd preference is one of the arguments against IRV that usually only comes up in textbooks. I think Labor is the condorcet winner in all 3 of the Greens QLD federal seats – the narrative is that left beats right, and within left Greens beat Labor, which would also be true for South Brisbane. But a Green win in South Brisbane when it’s clear the electorate at large prefers Labor to Greens makes that a bit ickier
Combined with the NT Greens losing a seat vs CLP that Labor would have won (Fannie Bay), this year has been a challenge to Greens relationship with our voting system.
And GPPS (whose post I was referencing above) – I agree the Greens messaging is bad. I could imagine RDN running with a message that he wants change during his career and he encourages Labor to try beat more Greens the way Miles does – in fact I remember some Greens saying “our goal is to make us unnecessary”. The difference now is the teal movement is providing another pathway to achieve what Greens are trying to achieve, and the Greens haven’t quite figured out how to articulate that their version of seeking change (a political party that’s openly hostile to other political parties) is better than alternatives. Those arguments exist, they just haven’t been articulated well and even as a lifelong Greens voter (I’m in my early 30s) I find the relentless negativity and hostility a bit much.
@Blue Not John – sorry to ask but who are you referring to by ‘RDN’?
Former leader Richard Di Natale. He was pivoting the Greens towards a teal-like style that didn’t really pay off
I think the best comparison for Greens result this election is Victoria 2018 – not a disaster but one with many setbacks after a “breakthrough” election, including losing a lower house seat (Northcote) and failing to gain low hanging fruit (Richmond).
In general the centre of Greens power has gone from Tasmania to Victoria to QLD, all following similar hype cycles. Who knows what state is next?
I reckon the Greens’ dream in Brisbane is dead if they lose Maiwar, and on the council level it is already dead. Indooroopilly won’t vote Labor so Labor can’t get Walter Taylor nor can they get Paddington and the Greens aren’t either at this stage. The Greens are too extreme for Queenslanders. Teals would win these areas federally but the BCC LNP are just too moderate for teals to be successful. But they will continue to be leftists and woke because it works in inner-city Melbourne.
@Blue Not John – thank you for clarifying.
The difference between the prepolls and the on the day votes was huge. This determined the lnp absolute majority.
On the Greens, and I suspect Ben will have a Greens heavy post later this week or early next, I do think they have a core class support base – single professional women. Because of that, I would suspect that support for Hamas/Hezbollah (rather than a more generic anti war position) and MCM’s overt support for the CFMEU hurt their support in that demographic, but may have been offset by some additional votes elsewhere.
Also, and I just thought this now, did the Greens not get a sophomore surge in Maiwar and South Brisbane, or did they and the result is actually worse than it looks?