Queensland election night live

11:10 – That list of seats has changed a bit since I started on this bit of analysis 40 minutes ago, and the last seat is South Brisbane.

The gap between the ALP and LNP has shrunk as the pre-poll votes have reported. Greens MP Amy Macmahon needs the LNP to climb into second place to win. The gap is now 3.1%, but it seems likely that will shrink further. The only other candidate in the race is from One Nation, and they have polled just over 3%. So it is quite possible that One Nation preferences to the LNP could elect a Greens MP.

Incidentally, I think there’s three seats where it would be super helpful if the ECQ could conduct a 3CP count – South Brisbane (do the LNP make it to the top two?), Mulgrave (does KAP make it?) and Rockhampton, where Margaret Strelow is probably coming third but is not so far behind that I can rule out her making it to the 2CP.

11:04 – Labor’s Ali King is on 55.3% in Pumicestone’s 2PP, but the pre-poll vote is not as advanced as in most other seats, and the ABC is projecting that will drop to 51.4%, which will be a nail-biter.

11:02 – In Pine Rivers, the LNP’s Dean Clements is on 51.9%, but the ABC computer expects that to climb to 52.9%. Hard to see Labor winning here.

10:58 – Mulgrave remains very messy. The ALP has a very narrow lead on the raw 2CP but the ABC computer is expecting the LNP to take the lead, and I think that makes sense. But the bigger question is whether KAP can catch up on the major parties and win, and we won’t be able to answer that until a full distribution of preferences, or at least a 3CP, is counted. I think if KAP remain in third place on the 3CP, the LNP has probably won.

10:54 – KAP candidate (and ex-One Nation MP) Stephen Andrew has taken the lead in Mirani. His lead is 50.5% on raw figures, but the ABC computer is projecting that to climb to 50.9%.

10:53 – Maryborough is interesting because Labor is behind on raw figures, but the ABC computer expects they will pick up to 50.7%. That isn’t the trend you’d normally expect.

10:50 – By a coincidence Maiwar has just moved to in doubt on the ABC just as I reached it alphabetically. Berkman’s 2CP lead is 51.13% on raw figures, but the ABC computer is projecting he’ll fall behind. Definitely one worth watching.

10:44 – In Macalister, Labor is on 51.6% of the 2PP on raw figures, but the ABC projects that this will drop to 50.3%. That would be explained by a number of special votes booths yet to report and obviously it’s too close to call before those come in.

10:32 – In Gaven, the raw 2PP has Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon on 51.1%, and the ABC projection expects that will drop to 50.5%. That seems to be because of an expectation that the remaining votes will be a bit weaker for her, which makes sense to me. And this is why the seat isn’t locked in as a Labor retain.

10:28 – In Cook, Labor MP Cynthia Lui is on just 44.3% of the raw two-party-preferred, but a number of ordinary booths are yet to report let alone pre-poll and other special votes, and the ABC is projecting Lui to get to 48.5%, and I can see why they don’t want to call it yet, but they’ve got it as a likely LNP gain.

10:25 – I think there’s eleven seats worth watching now. I’m going to run through them one by one now.

• Cook
• Gaven
• Macalister
• Maryborough
• Mirani
• Mulgrave
• Pine Rivers
• Pumicestone
• Redcliffe
• Redlands
• Rockhampton

9:50 – The Greens look set to increase their statewide primary vote but losing support in the inner city. We saw this in the ACT, and in the NSW council elections too. And it’s a bad result if you want to win single-member electorates. This contrasts with history over the last decade where the Greens often picked up more single-member seats while their primary vote stood still.

9:48 – LNP now leading in 13 Labor seats, plus Mirani, minus Ipsiwch West. That’s 48 seats total.

9:39 – This has been slowly creeping up on us but I think the LNP is on the verge of winning a majority and they are the only viable government now.

This has been quite a respectable result for Labor considering the polls at the start of this campaign, but they just don’t have the space for a Labor government.

9:18 – Okay so if we look at the 23 Labor seats held on margins of 10% or less, the LNP has gained six, they are likely in three more, are ahead on early counting in Hervey Bay, and are narrowly ahead in Rockhampton. That currently puts them on eleven gains, plus they are leading in Mirani. Subtract their loss in Ipswich West, and that puts them in the lead in 46 seats.

Labor has retained five seats in that 0-10% range, and are narrowly ahead in six others. Their lead is slightly bigger in Cook (which the ABC has called).

Labor has retained all but two seats above 10%. The only exceptions are Maryborough (Labor narrowly ahead) and Mulgrave (LNP ahead of Labor but KAP also in with a chance).

So if you add in Mulgrave to the LNP’s leads, they are currently leading in 47.

9:06 – I haven’t really paid attention to Mirani, where Stephen Andrew is the sitting MP. He’s running for Katter’s Australian Party after losing One Nation preselection. His former party is preferencing the LNP, and they are narrowly in front. If the LNP won here, that would get them one seat closer to that majority. Combine that with a Labor gain in South Brisbane and that would mean a crossbench shrinking from seven to five.

9:03 – So thinking about pre-poll and postal votes. The election predictions rely on matched swing – basically it takes into account pre-existing differences between election day and early votes, but assumes that the swing will be similar. If pre-poll vote is more favourable to the LNP, but the change is similar to election day, then the current numbers will be roughly right. But if the pre-poll swing is bigger than the election day swing, then we’ll probably see a few seats where Labor is leading flip to the LNP.

This is sort of what happened in NSW – the swing to Labor was smaller on pre-poll, and the prospects of a Labor majority faded.

8:52 – So how far up the pendulum is this race close? Looking at seats Labor holds by 12% or more, there are just two where the race is close. One is Mulgrave (12.2%) and the other is Logan (13.4%). They are leading in both but they are close – Mulgrave has already been explained, and Labor has a 1.8% lead in Logan.

Amongst the 12 Labor seats on margins of 7-12%, Labor is leading in every seat. I did a quick check of all these, the ABC website has only called Maryborough. I think they are well ahead in Cooper, Ferny Grove, Murrumba and Bulimba. They’re leading by a decent lead but not quite as big in five others. Only in two of these seats is it very close – Capalaba and Rockhampton.

Things are much messier in the seats under a 7% margin, but Labor is still leading in many seats. Labor is leading in 10 of these 18 seats, the LNP is leading in eight.

So on those numbers, right now Labor has regained Ipswich West and South Brisbane, and is trailing in eight others. That would be a net loss of six, which would leave them on 45 seats. There are 11 others where the ALP lead is quite narrow. If they lost all of those seats, that would give the LNP a majority.

8:25 – It’s worth pausing on Mulgrave. This Cairns-area seat has been held by Curtis Pitt since 2009, but he’s retiring. The preference count has Labor narrowly ahead of the LNP, but Labor is leading with the primary vote of just over 25%.

Katter’s Australian Party are third on 16.1%, and over 38% of the vote is with the other candidates: just over 8% each with Legalise Cannabis and independent David Raymond, One Nation on 7%, another independent on 6.5%, and Greens on 4.3%. KAP is just 4% behind the LNP and they would have a good shot of winning if they can get into the top two.

8:09 – A bit of a summary of the state of play after 8pm:

• Labor is definitely losing seats, but the number of lost seats is small, and all in the north of the state. In the marginal seats, the margins remain very slim and Labor is leading in many of them.
• At the moment it’s hard to see Labor retaining their slim majority but the LNP isn’t quite getting enough of a swing for a majority.
• The result has not been particularly impressive for the crossbench. KAP hasn’t been competitive in Townsville or Cairns seats, the Greens are not gaining any seats and are in serious danger of losing South Brisbane, and Margaret Strelow is in a distant third place in Rockhampton.

7:57 – The LNP also has a very narrow lead in Rockhampton, where independent Margaret Strelow is clearly in third.

7:56 – Looking at a list of the most marginal Labor seats (those under 6%), the LNP only has a substantial lead in Keppel, Thuringowa and Mundingburra. They have slim leads in Caloundra, Barron River and Townsville, but those are bouncing around.

In case you don’t know Queensland geography, three of those six seats are in Townsville, one is in Cairns, one is a large regional seat north of Rockhampton, and just one is in the south-east – Caloundra, my current location.

7:48 – Earlier on I was talking about the LNP needing to gain 12 seats to win a majority (13 if they don’t retain Ipswich West, which they have not). But it seems more relevant to point out that Labor needs to lose 5 seats to lose their majority. Right now the ABC has called a Labor gain in Ipswich West, and losses in Keppel, Mackay and Townsville, which would put them on 49. I think it’s likely they’ll lose their majority but not at all certain.

7:45 – As Antony is saying now on TV, there is a clear regional divide – smaller swings away from Labor in Brisbane (the inner city in particular) than in regional Queensland.

7:38 – The easiest path for the Greens to win seats is for Labor to drop into third place, and then win on Labor preferences. The LNP is preferencing Labor, so the Greens would need a decent primary vote lead to win if Labor is in second.

When it looked like Labor would be beaten badly, it seemed like the Greens could win a number of inner-city seats by coming second and winning on Labor preferences. But right now the Labor vote is holding up quite well there. The Greens have a chance of coming second in Cooper, but LNP preferences would then re-elect Labor. And in South Brisbane, where the LNP reversed their 2020 preferences to instead preference Labor, Greens MP Amy Macmahon could be in trouble.

7:33 – Right now there are a lot of marginals that are very close and not many that are clearly flipping to the LNP. Looking at the 15 most marginal Labor seats (those held by 6.3% or less), Labor has a big lead in one (Thuringowa), they are narrowly in front in 7, the LNP. has a big lead in Mundingburra and Keppel, very slim leads in Nicklin and Barron River, and slightly bigger leads in Townsville and Cook. We also have no data from Hervey Bay.

A small boost in the LNP position could see them win a clear majority from those seats, but on current figures it would be enough to just push Labor into minority but not get the LNP close to a majority.

7:26 – Aspley is Labor’s tenth-most marginal seat. Remember the LNP needs to win twelve seats to win a majority. Right now Labor is slightly ahead with some real preferences in.

7:22 – Another odd seat is Thuringowa, where the ABC’s preference projection has Labor up 4.3%. But this seems quite messy, with Labor’s primary vote down, the LNP primary up, and both KAP and One Nation down. An independent, seemingly a left-leaning one, is on almost 5%.

In the other two Townsville-area seats, Townsville and Mundingburra, Labor’s modest margins look set to fall.

7:18 – The LNP has a big lead in Barron River, but things are much less positive for them in neighbouring Cairns and Mulgrave. The projected swing in Cairns is 3.6%, which would leave the LNP 1.9% short. And there’s basically no swing in Mulgrave – admittedly a seat with a bigger margin, but held by a prominent MP who has held the seat for 15 years.

7:14 – The expected swing to the LNP is also quite modest in Caloundra, Labor’s fourth-most marginal seats. Jason Hunt is also a first-term MP.

7:13 – The ABC has already called Bundaberg (Labor’s most marginal seat) as a Labor retain, and now it looks like they are leading in Nicklin, their second-most marginal seat. Both had first-term Labor MPs.

7:10 – There are a range of swings, and it seems likely the LNP is on track to win, but it’s not enormous. Looking at Stephen Miles’ seat of Murrumba, it looks like there’s no swing at all after preferences (based on ABC preference estimates).

7:02 – The ABC has the ALP in front in South Brisbane on one tiny booth because they are coming second and now benefit from LNP preferences. I wouldn’t rely on that for anything. Interestingly we have more data from Maiwar and Labor is up. If they overtook the LNP that could get interesting but still quite early.

The Greens are in third in Miller, just behind the LNP, but they’d need to do a lot better to win. Numbers are very small in Cooper, and non-existed in McConnel and Greenslopes.

6:56 – The Labor swing in Bundaberg has calmed down a bit but Labor is still winning there. I haven’t seen any other seats bucking the trend – generally there are respectable swings to the LNP all over the place.

6:54 – A bit more data in Thuringowa also has KAP in a respectable third there.

6:48 – Tiny samples in the three Townsville-area seats of Townsville, Thuringowa and Mundingburra. KAP is in third in Townsville and Mundingburra, and practically no votes in Thuringowa.

6:43 – One thing worth watching tonight is whether first-term MPs gain a “sophomore surge”. An example worth watching is Labor’s most marginal seat, Bundaberg, where first-term Labor MP Tom Smith has a 10% primary vote swing on a small vote sample.

6:36 – There are numbers now but they are very small so I’ll wait before posting analysis.

6:11 – The Courier Mail has an exit poll which is reporting Labor and LNP with even primary votes in 10 seats, which is being reported as showing the race as close, but:

• The seats selected have an average Labor margin of 7.6%.
• The poll is ony conducted on election day, where Labor generally does better than at pre-poll.
• These figures are primary votes. While the ALP probably doesn’t do quite as well in preferences in Queensland as they do in some states, it still confuses things.

So if they are neck and neck on primary votes on election day in these marginal seats, they are probably losing as expected.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in Queensland for the 2024 state election. I will be covering the election tonight here at the Tally Room, at least as long as the website can handle the traffic. If the website collapses, I will move over to Tally Room in Exile.

Throughout the campaign, and frankly the whole year, the expectation has been that the LNP would win a large majority, but in the last few weeks there have been a number of polls showing a much closer race, although the LNP remains in the lead.

Follow along with me tonight – I expect we’ll get results from around 6:30.