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10:30 – I’ve seen a few people commenting on the possibility of Mick Gentleman coming back to beat the third Liberal for the final seat in Brindabella as a case of the “Ginninderra effect”. I don’t think that’s the case. As a remind, the Ginninderra effect is when a party winning multiple seats is able to efficiently distribute their vote between their candidate such that they can win with a vote that looks insufficient if you assume the previous winners require a full quota.
For the moment, let’s ignore the changes in primary vote over the last two hours since the last distribution of preferences which has increased the Greens vote by 0.05 quotas, Labor by 0.04, and cut the Liberal vote by 0.15.
As of 8:21, the Liberal primary vote was 2.72 quotas, and the Liberal vote at the final point in the count (when there were six candidates left) was 2.82. But the Labor primary increased from 2.02 quotas to 2.64. And from those, Gentleman almost wins. So the Ginninderra effect is a small factor (the first two Liberals both received full quotas, while the second Labor MP doesn’t), but the main factor is the ALP gaining a strong flow of preferences from Nuttall (and to a lesser extent, IFC).
10:10 – A fresh distribution has been posted for all seats, and of most interest is Brindabella. Gentleman is just 303 votes behind third Liberal Daniels. But also Gentleman is only 89 votes ahead of the Greens’ Laura Nuttall in the previous count. Meanwhile since this distribution was conducted, the Greens vote has climbed from 0.50 quotas to 0.55, and the Liberal vote has dropped from 2.72 quotas to 2.57. So it’s likely that Nuttall is now leading for that final seat.
9:28 – Not a lot has changed in the last hour, but the main news is:
- Labor has retained their ten seats, the Liberals have retained their nine, the Greens have clearly won two seats, while Fiona Carrick and Thomas Emerson seem to be solid to win seats as independents.
- Greens MP Andrew Braddock looks likely to retain his seat in Yerrabi, which would be a third Greens seat, and thus ensure that Labor and Greens would hold a majority between them.
- In Brindabella, it looks like Greens MP Laura Nuttall has lost her seat. Two new Labor MPs have been elected, but sitting Labor MP Mick Gentleman might survive if he can beat the third Liberal. If Labor wins that seat, that would mean they’d gained a seat.
- In Ginninderra, the result is likely 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 Greens, with Chiaka Barry likely to take the second Liberal seat lost by Elizabeth Kikkert after she lost Liberal preselection and then ran for Family First.
- In Kurrajong, the Greens have lost their second MP Rebecca Vassarotti and that seat looks set to go to independent Thomas Emerson.
- In Murrumbidgee, the Greens have likely lost their seat to independent Fiona Carrick. There’s also a very close race between two Liberals for the final seat. Amardeep Singh is narrowly ahead of Ed Cocks, a sitting MP who filled a vacancy two years ago.
- In Yerrabi, Independents for Canberra’s David Pollard did quite well but looks set to fall short in favour of the Greens’ Andrew Braddock, although that race hasn’t been called.
Overall right now the likely outcome is 10-11 Labor, 9-10 Liberals, 2-3 Greens, 2-3 independents. If the Greens win Yerrabi or Labor wins Brindabella, then the Labor-Greens government holds its majority. If they lose both, Labor would instead need support from at least one independent in addition to the Greens, or from every independent instead of the Greens. If they win both, that would produce a total of 11 Labor, 9 Liberals, 2 Greens and 2 independents, at which point Labor would have a choice on any particular issue to either get the support of the Greens or of both Emerson and Carrick.
9:02 – The Kurrajong distribution of preferences has Thomas Emerson easily winning the final seat. The Greens vote is relatively evenly split between the two Greens MPs – Rattenbury is on 0.69 quotas and Vassarotti is on 0.50 quotas when Vassarotti is knocked out, with Emerson on 0.93. Vassarotti’s votes push Rattenbury over quota, with Emerson on 0.96 quotas.
8:57 – Sticking with Brindabella, I’ve heard reports of a booth where all the votes counted are Liberal, so that could indicate the Liberal vote is inflated. It’s also worth pointing out that while Mick Gentleman is losing to his fellow Labor candidate, he’s also only about 0.1 quotas behind the third Liberal, so it’s plausible you could see him win the fifth seat over the third Liberal, which would be a gain of one Labor seat.
8:27 – I had missed that long-serving Labor MP Mick Gentleman might be losing to a fellow Labor MP in Brindabella. On primary votes he’s just behind Taimus Werner-Gibbings, 0.49 quotas to 0.46. And what do you know, when you look at the interim distribution of preferences, Werner-Gibbings end up defeating Gentleman for the final seat, 0.88 quotas to 0.76.
That distribution is also showing that the Liberal Party is winning a third seat off Greens MP Laura Nuttall. Nuttall is knocked out when there are seven candidates, three Liberals, three Labor and a Green. At that point she is on 0.595 quotas, to Mick Gentleman on 0.654. It’s unlikely she could close that gap and is also unlikely she could win if Gentleman is knocked out first, as his preferences would strongly favour Werner-Gibbings.
Nuttall also narrowly defeats IFC candidate Vanessa Picker in the previous round, 0.505 quotas to 0.474. That gap could be closed, but it’s unlikely Picker would win when third Liberal James Daniels already has such a large lead.
7:55 – The interim distribution of preferences in Murrumbidgee has Amardeep Singh defeating Ed Cocks by just 0.03 quotas – 0.748 to 0.718. Too close to call.
In the previous round, Emma Davidson is knocked out on 0.59 quotas, with Carrick on 0.95 quotas and both Liberals on about 0.68 quotas. I can’t see that changing, so Carrick has been elected and Davidson has been defeated.
7:50 – In Yerrabi, the interim distribution of preferences is giving the final seat to Greens MP Andrew Braddock. He ends up on 0.87 quotas to third Liberal John Mikita on 0.69 quotas. It’s surprising that David Pollard from IFC is knocked out earlier. At the point where Pollard is knocked out, he’s on 0.52 quotas, Labor’s third candidate Raj is on 0.54, Mikita is on 0.61, and Braddock is on 0.69. He could theoretically do better if he can close that gap on Raj, but Braddock is looking strong.
7:45 – A peculiarity of the ACT election is that a large proportion of the vote is cast electronically, mostly pre-poll votes, and those are the votes that have been counted so far. This has created a weird effect where we haven’t got much change in the vote since that initial rush just before 7pm.
It also means that, for those electronic votes, the Commission has already conducted an interim distribution of preferences. This could change as more votes are counted, but effectively gives us a notional margin for close races. I’m going to run through those figures over the next 15 minutes.
7:41 – Also worth noting that Ed Cocks filled a casual vacancy in 2022. The two other members to have come into the Assembly mid-term are the Greens’ Laura Nuttall, who is in a fierce fight to retain her seat in Brindabella, and Liberal James Milligan who is leading for the second Liberal seat in Yerrabi.
7:40 – So just to recap, the seats worth watching in the ACT are:
- Brindabella – Greens MP Laura Nuttall (0.46 quotas) defending her seat against a third Liberal (2.77 quotas) or Vanessa Picker from Independents For Canberra (0.41 quotas).
- Kurrajong – Greens MP Rebecca Vassarotti has been defeated, with Independents for Canberra’s Thomas Emerson the likely winner (0.81 quotas).
- Murrumbidgee – Independent Fiona Carrick (0.74 quotas) with a big lead over Greens MP Emma Davidson (0.51 quotas).
- Murrumbidgee – Liberal candidate Amardeep Singh (0.47 quotas) narrowly ahead of Liberal MP Ed Cocks (0.44 quotas).
- Yerrabi – Greens MP Andrew Braddock (0.66 quotas) defending against IFC’s David Pollard (0.55 quotas).
The Greens need to retain either Brindabella or Yerrabi for a Labor-Greens majority.
7:31 – There’s potential for an intra-party upset in Murrumbidgee, where second Liberal MP Ed Cocks is currently trailing one of his Liberal colleagues. Former Liberal leader Jeremy Hanson is on 0.84 quotas, with Amardeep Singh on 0.47 and Cocks on 0.44 One of those two will win, but Singh has a good chance of winning. Labor’s Chris Steel and Marisa Peterson have a clear lead over the other Labor candidates so should be fine.
7:29 – Rachel Stephen-Smith will likely retain her seat as the second Labor MP in Kurrajong but that may not be called tonight. She’s on 0.46 quotas, with no other Labor candidate on more than 0.16 quotas, but Andrew Barr is on 1.32 quotas himself. I guess the question will be what her lead is, and how big his surplus is, at the end of the night. If these numbers don’t change by the end of the night I would probably call her elected but I think it’s fair enough to not call her seat yet.
7:26 – While there doesn’t seem to be that much of a prospect of a party change in Ginninderra, there is still a question of who would take the second Liberal seat previously held by Elizabeth Kikkert. Right now Chiaka Barry is on 0.4 quotas, ahead of Joe Prevedello on 0.33 quotas. Either could win.
7:21 – Something that might make things harder for the Liberals in Brindabella is that so much of their vote is concentrated behind Mark Parton, who has a full quota in his own right. So while the Liberal ticket collectively is on 2.77 quotas, third-placed Liberal James Daniels is on just 0.43 quotas. The Greens collectively are on 0.46 and IFC are on 0.41. The Liberals would be in a much stronger position if their vote was more evenly spread amongst their three leading candidates.
7:18 – The Liberal candidates in Epping and Hornsby have won their races easily. Monica Tudehope is on 60% of the primary vote in Epping, and James Wallace is on 48% in a more competitive race in Hornsby. It’s hard to compare these to 2023 due to the absence of the ALP, but the ABC is expecting the 2CP margin in Epping to be around 68% and almost 60% in Hornsby.
7:14 – We now have eight booths reporting in Pittwater, and Jacqui Scruby has a sizeable majority on primary votes. The ABC has called this seat, and I’m also happy to call this seat as an independent gain. Right now the independent swing is 19.8%, although that is inflated due to the absence of Labor and Greens. The ABC is expecting a 2CP margin of 7.8%, which would be a swing of 8.4%.
7:12 – Zooming out to the whole ACT, the current numbers in the Assembly are 10 Labor, 9 Liberal and 6 Greens. Labor won two seats in every electorate. The Liberals won two everywhere except Kurrajong. The Greens won two in Kurrajong and one everywhere else. The Greens won a lot of close races which inflated the government’s majority.
Right now Ginninderra looks like a status quo 2-2-1 result. In Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee the Greens look likely to lose a seat to an independent (Emerson in Kurrajong and Carrick in Murrumbidgee). They also look likely to lose a seat to either Liberal or IFC in Brindabella.
If those three results happen, they reduce the Labor-Greens government to a slim 13-seat majority.
But the Greens are also in a close race in Yerrabi. If they lose a fourth seat in Yerrabi, that would deprive the current government of a majority, producing an assembly of 10 Labor, 9-10 Liberal, 2 Greens and 3-4 others. It would theoretically allow for a Liberal government, a Labor government without the Greens, or a Labor-Greens government with the support of at least one independent.
7:05 – Brindabella right now looks like the best chance for the Liberals to gain a seat. The party is on 2.77 quotas, with Labor on two and no other party over half a quota. The Greens are on 0.46 and IFC are on 0.41. Far too early to call but Liberals looking good.
7:04 – Labor and Liberal look set to retain their two seats each in Yerrabi. For the fifth seat, the Greens are on 0.66 quotas and IFC is on 0.55. That looks close.
7:01 – Independent candidate Fiona Carrick has almost doubled her vote in Murrumbidgee, on 0.74 quotas. She is a long way ahead of the Greens, on just 0.51 quotas. Right now she’s in the box seat to take a Greens seat.
7:00 – The Greens are defending two seats in Kurrajong, and they are down 7% on the results so far. On those numbers, they will definitely be losing their second seat, likely to be Rebecca Vassarotti. Thomas Emerson from IFC is looking quite strong – he’s on 0.59 quotas personally and his party is on 0.81 quotas. Alternatively it’s possible that the second Liberal could win but I think their vote is a bit low so far.
6:57 – In Ginninderra, ex-Liberal member Elizabeth Kikkert’s Family First party is on just under 0.3 quotas. That’s probably not enough for her to win. The Belco Party is also a long way behind, and it is looking like a status quo result of 2-2-1, although Independents For Canberra on 0.45 quotas shouldn’t be totally dismissed.
6:55 – The first swings from the ACT have Labor and Greens both down, 3.7% and 2.4% respectively, and Liberal up 1.9%. The Independents for Canberra are on 8.2%. This strongly suggests the government will lose seats (and the Greens are more likely to lose seats than Labor) but not clear if that’s enough for the government to lose its majority.
6:53 – Scruby has a very strong lead in the first big booth in Elanora Heights, and I’ve heard of big leads in other booths. She is in a strong position.
6:46 – The ABC doesn’t have any data for the ACT election, but Antony Green has reported some figures for about half of the vote. I can’t find this data on the Elections ACT website, but it sounds like the Liberals are leading Labor on primary votes.
Meanwhile there is a very large swing to independent Jacqui Scruby on two small booths in Pittwater. A good start for her but very early.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the Australian Capital Territory’s Assembly election, and for three state by-elections for the New South Wales seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater.
A Labor-Greens coalition government will be attempting to retain its majority after 23 years of Labor rule and 16 years of the Greens in the balance of power.
In New South Wales, most of the focus will be on the Northern Beaches seat of Pittwater, where independent candidate Jacqui Scruby is in a fierce contest with Liberal candidate Georgia Ryburn.
Prediction: ALP 10 LIB 11 GRN 2 IND 2
On Pittwater – confirmed teal gain. Scruby is so far ahead on the 2CP. There’s a significant drop in the Liberal primary vote, so it’s not just ex-Labor and ex-Greens voters driving up the teal vote.
I’m currently listening to the ABC coverage and following the elections at the same time but at 7:45pm AEDT (6:45pm AEDT) I will stop listening to the coverage and turn on the A-League. I will still casually update and at half time I will be back to normal activity for that period of time.
@ Furtive Lawngnome
Not who you asked but big part of it is that they are the government now. Anti-government sentiment that previously went to them now goes to IFC (or Carrick in Woden). Also they absolutely peaked last election getting multiple seats by very narrow margins so only a small swing was needed for them to lose seats.
In Brindabella, ALP 2 LIB 2 for sure. LIB likely to get the last seat, if not the Greens.
Biggest anti-Labor swing is here.
Labor will get two in every seat. The Liberals are going to get three in Brindabella.
@FurtiveLawngnome – a few early speculation reasons (note – this is based on the prepoll vote that usually skews more right than average)
1: In an otherwise low key election, the Greens candidate scandals got outsize coverage and hurt a lot
2: The ACT Greens got a lot of seats in 2020 and weren’t able to change much. “Shake things up” voters look elsewhere, especially as they made campaign promises they feasibly could have delivered during the term.
3: The Greens recent focus on Palestine and candidate scandals made them look very “student politics” and not particularly serious.
4: Canberra is very socially progressive but economically social democratic at most. Federal Greens moves like holding the RBA over a barrel wouldnt have gone down well.
Anyway, it seems like Greens will hang in there with 3 seats to help Labor with 10 form.government. Scope for soul searching especially as 2 of the people who list seats were Ministers
Teal gain in pittwater buy die to the by election status and the fact the federal teals may harm their state colleagues should they back a Labor minority I’m saying libs could still regain this at the general election
Liberals had three seats in Brindabella before. Not surprised about Greens losing a seat in Brindabella.
Labor’s not losing seats as they had a buffer – over two quotas per electorate last election.
So yea 10 LIB 10 LAB 2 GRN 3 IND
The only reason the ACT has 5 seats is because in case it becomes a state somehow (The left want it to for obvious reasons) the 5 seats will also be used federally just like Tasmania.
NP & John, Who do you think would win the 5 seats in federal elections? Labor would not win all 5.
Only a couple of booths in but Greens are doing much better on election day votes than prepoll. Not sure it’s enough to save any of the 3 that are losing on current results but will be interesting to see
Emerson and Carrick are likely to get in.
@John, who’s the third IND candidate?
Pollard in Yerrabi
The 5 seats minimum is for foundation states so ACT statehood wouldn’t add more house seats. The 5 seats of 5 is just because it’s the most effective system and reflects the population distribution Canberra has with 5 clear “mini-towns” (Civic, Belco, Gungahlin, Woden (+Weston Creek), Tuggers)
Yerrabi
IFC – 0.55
GRN – 0.66
ALP – 1.85
ALP likely to hold their second seat. GRN and IFC in the running for the last seat, pending late postals and preferences.
@votante lib excess and minor parties will likely push ind above the green
Thomas Emerson has Green and Red balloons in his HQ/Party room, Does this guarantee he backs Labor/Greens?
@John – Braddock is ahead in the current distribution. No Yerrabi election day booths are in yet but in other electorates they’re so far better for Greens than prepoll. It’s not impossible for Pollard to get up but a bold prediction to say so
The swing against the Greens is actually pretty small and is mostly concentrated in Kurrajong, it’s just that so many of their seats were marginal even a very small swing caused several defeats.
@daniel t he was an advisor to David Pocock. Read into that what you will. We could see a Labor- greens – Emerson govt if that’s what you suggesting
Labor haven’t made their 2 quotas yet so I reckon Pollard is a shoe in
Imagine 12 senators from nt . This would be a joke
Quota 12000 votes
@Daniel T Brindabella is traditionally strong for the Liberals so maybe Brindabella. It’s the lower part of the federal seat of Bean.
Anyway, still no updates for the ACT, but it’s 1–0 in the Sydney Derby after a goal from Sydney FC’s Joe Lolley. Come on you Sky Blues!
Interesting comment upon the ABC Iview footage. Journo asked Shane Rattenbury if they would push the ALP harder now that the cross bench could be more important.
I hate how arrogant Labor is acting tonight, Labor has lost my vote federally, I will not be voting Labor at the 2025 election. Libs will go above Labor no matter what now.
I just hope I am in a new seat by the election as I refuse to preference the Greens or Labor otherwise my vote is invalid. Liberal voters in Melbourne are not represented.
Barr needs to resign, Labor has lost support, If Labor continue he should hand it to his deputy.
@ daniel what seat are you currently in and what suburb?
As long as you aren’t in the seat of Melbourne Cooper or wills it will be a lib vs lab contest
@Daniel T is it me or are the ABC hosts very arrogant towards the Liberals and are ignoring the possibility of a Liberal government? I haven’t been listening since 7:43pm AEDT/6:45pm AEST but when I was listening it seemed like the hosts didn’t think the Liberals were able to form government.
If you’re comfortable sharing, what part of Melbourne are you in? In the seat of Melbourne only Docklands and East Melbourne have Liberal votes as they are small-l-liberal CBD booths (they exist in every CBD, e.g Sydney has Millers Point and Pyrmont).
Greens are doing much better on election day votes but won’t make a difference. Greens are still being outpolled by Carrick in Murrumbidgee, and it seems like Nuttall and Vassarotti are still too far behind.
NP, I am in Bandt’s seat. I almost got a rental in Goldstein but missed out, My current contract is up in Jan so hopefully I get to move suburbs meaning seats as well. I hope I am in Kooyong as I will proudly vote for Hamer.
ABC is clearly biased, They are saying there is no chance for the independents to back Liberal.
Also if the Greens care about democracy they would support the party with the most votes and that clearly is the Liberals tonight. The largest party in votes in a tied parliament 10-10, should mean the Liberals get the first chance to form government.
I reckon if ACT has a TPP, it would be very close.
@Nether Portal – it comes down to Braddock (Green) vs Pollard (IFC) in Yerrabi to see if the Liberals even have a path to government. So far, Braddock is ahead – he won the distribution of prepoll votes, seems to be improving with election day votes (but Pollard is holding his own) and postals tend to be bad for independents (but not tested). The end of night distribution should say enough.
If either Emerson or Carrick declares they’d support a Labor government it’s over, but they have no reason to.
@daniel t greens don’t believe in democracy they believe in autocracy
@DanielT – Labor is gaining on the Liberals on primaries as election day votes come in. Postals may reverse that.
The true measure would be doing a 2PP, which is possible once all results are in. I suspect Labor would win easily when the Greens own votes and IFC votes are distributed.
To add on the Yerrabi count, Pollard’s on the left side of IFC, has been clearly in favour of the Tram going to Woden opposite to Libs position, so as much as it creates a path to liberals if he wins he’s much more likely to support a Labor government.
I heard the Greens also believe in drowning puppies and declaring war on New Zealand.
@blue they will sell to the highest bidder. Any self respecting independent should believe in changing of the old guard. Supporting the liberals would likely see Barr resign from politics which would be good for the act
@den yes but if he holds balance of power he can ask they reverse that also the Independents will likely need to be also friendly to an alliance with the greens as well unless Labor can get all 3 independents
So given pocock will likely be reflected in the act what are the chances with the rise in the lib vote that the libs steal the other seat from Labor unseating Katy Gallagher?
Here is what confuses me, Why is Labor projected to not lose seats despite their vote share dropping? Either they are getting better preference flows than last time (too early too tell) or there is some error in the counting (less likely)
Labor should be down to 8 or 9 seats based on the swing against them.
Currently Labor has 10, the Liberals have eight and the Greens have one.
I think the Liberals will get a third seat in Brindabella.
@daniel t
“Also if the Greens care about democracy they would support the party with the most votes and that clearly is the Liberals tonight.”
Labor are currently ahead of the Libs by about 150 primary votes. 64,924 vs 64,782.
John, Gallagher will lose, at this point a coalition majority is possible. Albo cannot win, only chance of a Labor minority is if he is removed and Chalmers becomes PM which might save their seats in QLD. But they could be reduced to 2-3 seats with Albo in QLD.
Seats like Werriwa and Shortland look promising for the coalition at this point as long as Albo stays on, That is the coalitions narrow path to majority through those 2 seats I mentioned. (and all the other seats they need)
Not really if you look at how the electoral system works last election Labor got 2.1-2.2 electoral quoats in most seats last election. So to start losing seats they’d need a drop twice as large as the 3.5% drop they’ve had.
Closest to losing a seat is they’re on 1.85 in Yerrabi which is of course still another couple percent points drop off losing the seat.
@np because even though their vote share dropped the vote is spread across 5 districts. And given they were in the higher range of 10 last time they are at the bottom range of 10 OT top range of 9 still giving them 10 seats
Daniel T – Labor had wiggle room to lose votes in every seat before they’re at risk of losing a seat (which would be falling below about 1.8 quotas).
Kevin Bonham is also flagging despite a large primary vote lead, Liberals might not actually win 3 in Brindabella due to IFC and Greens preferences.
Labor is currently a hair’s breadth in front of Liberals on territory-wide primary votes. This may change with late postals and late early voting ballots coming in.
Labor will lose in 2028 no matter what, They will not be in power forever. If Lee stands down then Mark Parton would be a great choice for Liberal leader, was impressed by his interview at Lib headquarters tonight on the ABC.
Gallagher will lose her senate seat in 2025, and it is likely Andrew Barr will recover the Labor seat in 2028, should this happen Barr will unforunetely will be a cabinet minister in a future Labor government which would be a disaster for this country.
I’m going to say this before someone beats me to it, unfortunately Labor will be in ”government”. I don’t accept it because it is too early but I am just saying what Antony Green has said (he has called the election)
@daniel t I agree if you look at the 3cp preferred based on 2022 it works out as
LAB 33.33%
LIB 28.57%
POC 36.33%
With the rest exhausted. And assuming that’s repeated.
I agree Labor is heading for disaster why albo didn’t call the election in august is beyond me. I reckon he was waiting for people to punish the state Labor govts first. But I don’t why since there aren’t many seats in those 2 states to lose especially not enough to lose govt. Not only those but Chisholm mcewen Bruce in Vic and the libs would likely steal Richmond from Labor in a vs grn contest as justine elliot is only a whisker from falling out of the 2pp
If both pocock and the libs strip 4.76% off Labor Gallagher is defeated and libs fill the other spot.