8:27 – I had missed that long-serving Labor MP Mick Gentleman might be losing to a fellow Labor MP in Brindabella. On primary votes he’s just behind Taimus Werner-Gibbings, 0.49 quotas to 0.46. And what do you know, when you look at the interim distribution of preferences, Werner-Gibbings end up defeating Gentleman for the final seat, 0.88 quotas to 0.76.
That distribution is also showing that the Liberal Party is winning a third seat off Greens MP Laura Nuttall. Nuttall is knocked out when there are seven candidates, three Liberals, three Labor and a Green. At that point she is on 0.595 quotas, to Mick Gentleman on 0.654. It’s unlikely she could close that gap and is also unlikely she could win if Gentleman is knocked out first, as his preferences would strongly favour Werner-Gibbings.
Nuttall also narrowly defeats IFC candidate Vanessa Picker in the previous round, 0.505 quotas to 0.474. That gap could be closed, but it’s unlikely Picker would win when third Liberal James Daniels already has such a large lead.
7:55 – The interim distribution of preferences in Murrumbidgee has Amardeep Singh defeating Ed Cocks by just 0.03 quotas – 0.748 to 0.718. Too close to call.
In the previous round, Emma Davidson is knocked out on 0.59 quotas, with Carrick on 0.95 quotas and both Liberals on about 0.68 quotas. I can’t see that changing, so Carrick has been elected and Davidson has been defeated.
7:50 – In Yerrabi, the interim distribution of preferences is giving the final seat to Greens MP Andrew Braddock. He ends up on 0.87 quotas to third Liberal John Mikita on 0.69 quotas. It’s surprising that David Pollard from IFC is knocked out earlier. At the point where Pollard is knocked out, he’s on 0.52 quotas, Labor’s third candidate Raj is on 0.54, Mikita is on 0.61, and Braddock is on 0.69. He could theoretically do better if he can close that gap on Raj, but Braddock is looking strong.
7:45 – A peculiarity of the ACT election is that a large proportion of the vote is cast electronically, mostly pre-poll votes, and those are the votes that have been counted so far. This has created a weird effect where we haven’t got much change in the vote since that initial rush just before 7pm.
It also means that, for those electronic votes, the Commission has already conducted an interim distribution of preferences. This could change as more votes are counted, but effectively gives us a notional margin for close races. I’m going to run through those figures over the next 15 minutes.
7:41 – Also worth noting that Ed Cocks filled a casual vacancy in 2022. The two other members to have come into the Assembly mid-term are the Greens’ Laura Nuttall, who is in a fierce fight to retain her seat in Brindabella, and Liberal James Milligan who is leading for the second Liberal seat in Yerrabi.
7:40 – So just to recap, the seats worth watching in the ACT are:
- Brindabella – Greens MP Laura Nuttall (0.46 quotas) defending her seat against a third Liberal (2.77 quotas) or Vanessa Picker from Independents For Canberra (0.41 quotas).
- Kurrajong – Greens MP Rebecca Vassarotti has been defeated, with Independents for Canberra’s Thomas Emerson the likely winner (0.81 quotas).
- Murrumbidgee – Independent Fiona Carrick (0.74 quotas) with a big lead over Greens MP Emma Davidson (0.51 quotas).
- Murrumbidgee – Liberal candidate Amardeep Singh (0.47 quotas) narrowly ahead of Liberal MP Ed Cocks (0.44 quotas).
- Yerrabi – Greens MP Andrew Braddock (0.66 quotas) defending against IFC’s David Pollard (0.55 quotas).
The Greens need to retain either Brindabella or Yerrabi for a Labor-Greens majority.
7:31 – There’s potential for an intra-party upset in Murrumbidgee, where second Liberal MP Ed Cocks is currently trailing one of his Liberal colleagues. Former Liberal leader Jeremy Hanson is on 0.84 quotas, with Amardeep Singh on 0.47 and Cocks on 0.44 One of those two will win, but Singh has a good chance of winning. Labor’s Chris Steel and Marisa Peterson have a clear lead over the other Labor candidates so should be fine.
7:29 – Rachel Stephen-Smith will likely retain her seat as the second Labor MP in Kurrajong but that may not be called tonight. She’s on 0.46 quotas, with no other Labor candidate on more than 0.16 quotas, but Andrew Barr is on 1.32 quotas himself. I guess the question will be what her lead is, and how big his surplus is, at the end of the night. If these numbers don’t change by the end of the night I would probably call her elected but I think it’s fair enough to not call her seat yet.
7:26 – While there doesn’t seem to be that much of a prospect of a party change in Ginninderra, there is still a question of who would take the second Liberal seat previously held by Elizabeth Kikkert. Right now Chiaka Barry is on 0.4 quotas, ahead of Joe Prevedello on 0.33 quotas. Either could win.
7:21 – Something that might make things harder for the Liberals in Brindabella is that so much of their vote is concentrated behind Mark Parton, who has a full quota in his own right. So while the Liberal ticket collectively is on 2.77 quotas, third-placed Liberal James Daniels is on just 0.43 quotas. The Greens collectively are on 0.46 and IFC are on 0.41. The Liberals would be in a much stronger position if their vote was more evenly spread amongst their three leading candidates.
7:18 – The Liberal candidates in Epping and Hornsby have won their races easily. Monica Tudehope is on 60% of the primary vote in Epping, and James Wallace is on 48% in a more competitive race in Hornsby. It’s hard to compare these to 2023 due to the absence of the ALP, but the ABC is expecting the 2CP margin in Epping to be around 68% and almost 60% in Hornsby.
7:14 – We now have eight booths reporting in Pittwater, and Jacqui Scruby has a sizeable majority on primary votes. The ABC has called this seat, and I’m also happy to call this seat as an independent gain. Right now the independent swing is 19.8%, although that is inflated due to the absence of Labor and Greens. The ABC is expecting a 2CP margin of 7.8%, which would be a swing of 8.4%.
7:12 – Zooming out to the whole ACT, the current numbers in the Assembly are 10 Labor, 9 Liberal and 6 Greens. Labor won two seats in every electorate. The Liberals won two everywhere except Kurrajong. The Greens won two in Kurrajong and one everywhere else. The Greens won a lot of close races which inflated the government’s majority.
Right now Ginninderra looks like a status quo 2-2-1 result. In Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee the Greens look likely to lose a seat to an independent (Emerson in Kurrajong and Carrick in Murrumbidgee). They also look likely to lose a seat to either Liberal or IFC in Brindabella.
If those three results happen, they reduce the Labor-Greens government to a slim 13-seat majority.
But the Greens are also in a close race in Yerrabi. If they lose a fourth seat in Yerrabi, that would deprive the current government of a majority, producing an assembly of 10 Labor, 9-10 Liberal, 2 Greens and 3-4 others. It would theoretically allow for a Liberal government, a Labor government without the Greens, or a Labor-Greens government with the support of at least one independent.
7:05 – Brindabella right now looks like the best chance for the Liberals to gain a seat. The party is on 2.77 quotas, with Labor on two and no other party over half a quota. The Greens are on 0.46 and IFC are on 0.41. Far too early to call but Liberals looking good.
7:04 – Labor and Liberal look set to retain their two seats each in Yerrabi. For the fifth seat, the Greens are on 0.66 quotas and IFC is on 0.55. That looks close.
7:01 – Independent candidate Fiona Carrick has almost doubled her vote in Murrumbidgee, on 0.74 quotas. She is a long way ahead of the Greens, on just 0.51 quotas. Right now she’s in the box seat to take a Greens seat.
7:00 – The Greens are defending two seats in Kurrajong, and they are down 7% on the results so far. On those numbers, they will definitely be losing their second seat, likely to be Rebecca Vassarotti. Thomas Emerson from IFC is looking quite strong – he’s on 0.59 quotas personally and his party is on 0.81 quotas. Alternatively it’s possible that the second Liberal could win but I think their vote is a bit low so far.
6:57 – In Ginninderra, ex-Liberal member Elizabeth Kikkert’s Family First party is on just under 0.3 quotas. That’s probably not enough for her to win. The Belco Party is also a long way behind, and it is looking like a status quo result of 2-2-1, although Independents For Canberra on 0.45 quotas shouldn’t be totally dismissed.
6:55 – The first swings from the ACT have Labor and Greens both down, 3.7% and 2.4% respectively, and Liberal up 1.9%. The Independents for Canberra are on 8.2%. This strongly suggests the government will lose seats (and the Greens are more likely to lose seats than Labor) but not clear if that’s enough for the government to lose its majority.
6:53 – Scruby has a very strong lead in the first big booth in Elanora Heights, and I’ve heard of big leads in other booths. She is in a strong position.
6:46 – The ABC doesn’t have any data for the ACT election, but Antony Green has reported some figures for about half of the vote. I can’t find this data on the Elections ACT website, but it sounds like the Liberals are leading Labor on primary votes.
Meanwhile there is a very large swing to independent Jacqui Scruby on two small booths in Pittwater. A good start for her but very early.
6:00 – Polls have just closed for the Australian Capital Territory’s Assembly election, and for three state by-elections for the New South Wales seats of Epping, Hornsby and Pittwater.
A Labor-Greens coalition government will be attempting to retain its majority after 23 years of Labor rule and 16 years of the Greens in the balance of power.
In New South Wales, most of the focus will be on the Northern Beaches seat of Pittwater, where independent candidate Jacqui Scruby is in a fierce contest with Liberal candidate Georgia Ryburn.
Prediction: ALP 10 LIB 11 GRN 2 IND 2
On Pittwater – confirmed teal gain. Scruby is so far ahead on the 2CP. There’s a significant drop in the Liberal primary vote, so it’s not just ex-Labor and ex-Greens voters driving up the teal vote.
I’m currently listening to the ABC coverage and following the elections at the same time but at 7:45pm AEDT (6:45pm AEDT) I will stop listening to the coverage and turn on the A-League. I will still casually update and at half time I will be back to normal activity for that period of time.
@ Furtive Lawngnome
Not who you asked but big part of it is that they are the government now. Anti-government sentiment that previously went to them now goes to IFC (or Carrick in Woden). Also they absolutely peaked last election getting multiple seats by very narrow margins so only a small swing was needed for them to lose seats.
In Brindabella, ALP 2 LIB 2 for sure. LIB likely to get the last seat, if not the Greens.
Biggest anti-Labor swing is here.
Labor will get two in every seat. The Liberals are going to get three in Brindabella.
@FurtiveLawngnome – a few early speculation reasons (note – this is based on the prepoll vote that usually skews more right than average)
1: In an otherwise low key election, the Greens candidate scandals got outsize coverage and hurt a lot
2: The ACT Greens got a lot of seats in 2020 and weren’t able to change much. “Shake things up” voters look elsewhere, especially as they made campaign promises they feasibly could have delivered during the term.
3: The Greens recent focus on Palestine and candidate scandals made them look very “student politics” and not particularly serious.
4: Canberra is very socially progressive but economically social democratic at most. Federal Greens moves like holding the RBA over a barrel wouldnt have gone down well.
Anyway, it seems like Greens will hang in there with 3 seats to help Labor with 10 form.government. Scope for soul searching especially as 2 of the people who list seats were Ministers
Teal gain in pittwater buy die to the by election status and the fact the federal teals may harm their state colleagues should they back a Labor minority I’m saying libs could still regain this at the general election
Liberals had three seats in Brindabella before. Not surprised about Greens losing a seat in Brindabella.
Labor’s not losing seats as they had a buffer – over two quotas per electorate last election.
So yea 10 LIB 10 LAB 2 GRN 3 IND
The only reason the ACT has 5 seats is because in case it becomes a state somehow (The left want it to for obvious reasons) the 5 seats will also be used federally just like Tasmania.
NP & John, Who do you think would win the 5 seats in federal elections? Labor would not win all 5.
Only a couple of booths in but Greens are doing much better on election day votes than prepoll. Not sure it’s enough to save any of the 3 that are losing on current results but will be interesting to see
Emerson and Carrick are likely to get in.
@John, who’s the third IND candidate?
Pollard in Yerrabi
The 5 seats minimum is for foundation states so ACT statehood wouldn’t add more house seats. The 5 seats of 5 is just because it’s the most effective system and reflects the population distribution Canberra has with 5 clear “mini-towns” (Civic, Belco, Gungahlin, Woden (+Weston Creek), Tuggers)
Yerrabi
IFC – 0.55
GRN – 0.66
ALP – 1.85
ALP likely to hold their second seat. GRN and IFC in the running for the last seat, pending late postals and preferences.
@votante lib excess and minor parties will likely push ind above the green
Thomas Emerson has Green and Red balloons in his HQ/Party room, Does this guarantee he backs Labor/Greens?
@John – Braddock is ahead in the current distribution. No Yerrabi election day booths are in yet but in other electorates they’re so far better for Greens than prepoll. It’s not impossible for Pollard to get up but a bold prediction to say so
The swing against the Greens is actually pretty small and is mostly concentrated in Kurrajong, it’s just that so many of their seats were marginal even a very small swing caused several defeats.
@daniel t he was an advisor to David Pocock. Read into that what you will. We could see a Labor- greens – Emerson govt if that’s what you suggesting
Labor haven’t made their 2 quotas yet so I reckon Pollard is a shoe in
Imagine 12 senators from nt . This would be a joke
Quota 12000 votes
@Daniel T Brindabella is traditionally strong for the Liberals so maybe Brindabella. It’s the lower part of the federal seat of Bean.
Anyway, still no updates for the ACT, but it’s 1–0 in the Sydney Derby after a goal from Sydney FC’s Joe Lolley. Come on you Sky Blues!
Interesting comment upon the ABC Iview footage. Journo asked Shane Rattenbury if they would push the ALP harder now that the cross bench could be more important.