The AEC released the final maps and data for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. In this blog post I’m going to post my final estimates of primary votes, two-party-preferred and two-candidate-preferred margins for each seat. At the end I’ve also posted the final pendulum after the completion of the redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, although we have the draft boundaries for the NT redistribution due tomorrow.
First up, this map shows the changes between the 2022 boundaries, the draft 2025 boundaries and the final boundaries for Victoria.
As we found out in early September, only nine seats have experienced any change compared to the draft boundaries: Ballarat, Bendigo, Chisholm, Corangamite, Hotham, McEwen, Nicholls, Scullin, Wannon.
You can see this in the margins, because the changes are mostly very small. The Labor margin in Bendigo is cut from 12.1% in 2022, to 12.0% in the draft, to 11.2% in the final version. The Nationals margin in Nicholls drops from 2.5% to 2.3%, and Labor’s margin in McEwen increases from 3.4% to 3.8%. Labor’s margin in Scullin is also up from 15.3% to 15.5%. All the other changes are barely perceptible.
The pendulum is very similar to the one I posted after the draft boundaries were published for NSW in June. In net terms the ALP and Coalition remain on 77 and 58 respectively, with the number of crossbench seats cut from 16 to 15 with the loss of North Sydney. None of the swing-to-win calculations I used there have changed.
Estimates of two-candidate-preferred margins
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Aston | LIB 2.8% | LIB 2.6% |
| Ballarat | ALP 13.0% | ALP 13.0% |
| Bendigo | ALP 12.1% | ALP 12.0% |
| Bruce | ALP 6.6% | ALP 5.3% |
| Calwell | ALP 12.4% | ALP 12.4% |
| Casey | LIB 1.5% | LIB 1.4% |
| Chisholm | ALP 6.4% | ALP 3.3% |
| Cooper | ALP vs GRN 8.7% | ALP vs GRN 7.8% |
| Corangamite | ALP 7.6% | ALP 7.8% |
| Corio | ALP 12.8% | ALP 12.5% |
| Deakin | LIB 0.2% | LIB 0.0% |
| Dunkley | ALP 6.3% | ALP 6.8% |
| Flinders | LIB 6.7% | LIB 6.2% |
| Fraser | ALP 16.5% | ALP 16.6% |
| Gellibrand | ALP 11.5% | ALP 11.2% |
| Gippsland | NAT 20.6% | NAT 20.6% |
| Goldstein | IND vs LIB 2.9% | IND vs LIB 3.9% |
| Gorton | ALP 10.0% | ALP 10.0% |
| Hawke | ALP 7.6% | ALP 7.6% |
| Higgins (abolished) | ALP 2.1% | |
| Holt | ALP 7.1% | ALP 7.1% |
| Hotham | ALP 14.3% | ALP 11.6% |
| Indi | IND vs LIB 8.9% | IND vs LIB 8.9% |
| Isaacs | ALP 6.9% | ALP 9.5% |
| Jagajaga | ALP 12.3% | ALP 12.2% |
| Kooyong | IND vs LIB 2.9% | IND vs LIB 3.5% |
| La Trobe | LIB 8.7% | LIB 8.4% |
| Lalor | ALP 12.8% | ALP 12.8% |
| Macnamara | ALP 12.2% | ALP 12.2% |
| Mallee | NAT 19.0% | NAT 19.0% |
| Maribyrnong | ALP 12.4% | ALP 13.0% |
| McEwen | ALP 3.3% | ALP 3.4% |
| Melbourne | GRN vs ALP 10.2% | GRN vs ALP 6.9% |
| Menzies | LIB 0.7% | ALP 0.4% |
| Monash | LIB 2.9% | LIB 2.9% |
| Nicholls | NAT vs IND 3.8% | NAT vs IND 2.5% |
| Scullin | ALP 15.6% | ALP 15.3% |
| Wannon | LIB vs IND 3.9% | LIB vs IND 3.4% |
| Wills | ALP vs GRN 8.6% | ALP vs GRN 4.6% |
Estimates of vote share for final electoral boundaries
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LIB 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Aston | 47.4 | 52.6 | 32.5 | 42.8 | 12.2 | 0.1 |
| Ballarat | 63.0 | 37.0 | 44.8 | 27.1 | 14.6 | 2.1 |
| Bendigo | 61.2 | 38.8 | 42.1 | 27.3 | 13.8 | 4.7 |
| Bruce | 55.3 | 44.7 | 40.3 | 31.7 | 9.7 | 0.2 |
| Calwell | 62.4 | 37.6 | 44.9 | 23.7 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
| Casey | 48.6 | 51.4 | 25.1 | 36.6 | 13.1 | 11.4 |
| Chisholm | 53.3 | 46.7 | 34.8 | 39.2 | 14.1 | 4.0 |
| Cooper | 75.7 | 24.3 | 40.7 | 16.2 | 28.4 | 0.0 |
| Corangamite | 57.9 | 42.2 | 38.4 | 34.0 | 15.3 | 0.0 |
| Corio | 62.5 | 37.5 | 41.9 | 25.0 | 14.7 | 0.1 |
| Deakin | 50.0 | 50.0 | 32.9 | 41.5 | 14.2 | 1.1 |
| Dunkley | 56.8 | 43.2 | 40.5 | 31.7 | 10.6 | 3.4 |
| Flinders | 43.8 | 56.2 | 22.8 | 43.3 | 9.5 | 11.7 |
| Fraser | 66.6 | 33.4 | 42.1 | 24.5 | 18.9 | 0.0 |
| Gellibrand | 61.2 | 38.8 | 42.8 | 27.2 | 15.6 | 0.3 |
| Gippsland | 29.4 | 70.6 | 19.2 | 54.1 | 8.5 | 0.0 |
| Goldstein | 46.3 | 53.7 | 13.6 | 39.6 | 8.4 | 31.3 |
| Gorton | 60.0 | 40.0 | 41.3 | 27.4 | 9.0 | 2.5 |
| Hawke | 57.6 | 42.4 | 36.7 | 26.4 | 8.9 | 7.9 |
| Holt | 57.1 | 42.9 | 40.8 | 29.5 | 8.6 | 3.0 |
| Hotham | 61.6 | 38.4 | 43.1 | 28.6 | 14.7 | 0.3 |
| Indi | 44.7 | 55.3 | 8.6 | 34.3 | 3.6 | 40.7 |
| Isaacs | 59.5 | 40.5 | 42.8 | 29.5 | 12.1 | 0.0 |
| Jagajaga | 62.2 | 37.8 | 40.8 | 29.2 | 16.7 | 3.0 |
| Kooyong | 46.3 | 53.7 | 11.3 | 43.4 | 9.9 | 31.0 |
| La Trobe | 41.6 | 58.4 | 26.2 | 45.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 |
| Lalor | 62.8 | 37.2 | 44.1 | 25.0 | 10.4 | 2.8 |
| Macnamara | 62.2 | 37.8 | 31.7 | 29.1 | 29.7 | 1.9 |
| Mallee | 31.0 | 69.0 | 16.8 | 49.1 | 5.3 | 12.2 |
| Maribyrnong | 63.0 | 37.0 | 42.2 | 26.8 | 16.7 | 0.0 |
| McEwen | 53.8 | 46.2 | 37.2 | 32.7 | 14.1 | 0.0 |
| Melbourne | 73.1 | 26.9 | 25.7 | 19.5 | 44.7 | 1.0 |
| Menzies | 50.4 | 49.6 | 31.8 | 41.0 | 12.9 | 4.9 |
| Monash | 47.1 | 52.9 | 25.6 | 37.8 | 9.9 | 10.7 |
| Nicholls | 34.2 | 65.8 | 13.2 | 43.4 | 3.7 | 24.1 |
| Scullin | 65.5 | 34.5 | 46.3 | 21.7 | 10.9 | 0.0 |
| Wannon | 41.4 | 58.7 | 19.6 | 44.2 | 6.7 | 20.9 |
| Wills | 77.1 | 22.9 | 36.4 | 16.2 | 32.8 | 0.2 |
Pendulum
| Labor Seats | Coalition Seats | ||
| Seat | Margin | Seat | Margin |
| Gilmore (NSW) | ALP 0.2% | Deakin (VIC) | LIB 0.0% |
| Menzies (VIC) | ALP 0.4% | Bennelong (NSW) | LIB 0.1% |
| Lyons (TAS) | ALP 0.9% | Sturt (SA) | LIB 0.5% |
| Lingiari (NT) | ALP 0.9% | Moore (WA) | LIB 0.9% |
| Robertson (NSW) | ALP 2.2% | Canning (WA) | LIB 1.2% |
| Paterson (NSW) | ALP 2.6% | Casey (VIC) | LIB 1.4% |
| Tangney (WA) | ALP 2.8% | Bass (TAS) | LIB 1.4% |
| Boothby (SA) | ALP 3.3% | Dickson (QLD) | LNP 1.7% |
| Bullwinkel (WA) | ALP 3.3% | Nicholls (VIC) | NAT 2.3% vs IND |
| Chisholm (VIC) | ALP 3.3% | Cowper (NSW) | NAT 2.4% vs IND |
| Parramatta (NSW) | ALP 3.7% | Bradfield (NSW) | LIB 2.5% |
| McEwen (VIC) | ALP 3.8% | Aston (VIC) | LIB 2.6% |
| Wills (VIC) | ALP 4.6% vs GRN | Banks (NSW) | LIB 2.6% |
| Hunter (NSW) | ALP 4.8% | Monash (VIC) | LIB 2.9% |
| Reid (NSW) | ALP 5.2% | Longman (QLD) | LNP 3.1% |
| Blair (QLD) | ALP 5.2% | Bonner (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Bruce (VIC) | ALP 5.3% | Leichhardt (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Werriwa (NSW) | ALP 5.3% | Hughes (NSW) | LIB 3.5% |
| Shortland (NSW) | ALP 6.0% | Wannon (VIC) | NAT 3.5% vs IND |
| Eden-Monaro (NSW) | ALP 6.1% | Flynn (QLD) | LNP 3.8% |
| Macquarie (NSW) | ALP 6.3% | Forrest (WA) | LIB 4.2% |
| Dobell (NSW) | ALP 6.6% | Forde (QLD) | LNP 4.2% |
| Dunkley (VIC) | ALP 6.8% | Petrie (QLD) | LNP 4.4% |
| Holt (VIC) | ALP 7.1% | Durack (WA) | LIB 4.7% |
| Hawke (VIC) | ALP 7.6% | Bowman (QLD) | LNP 5.5% |
| Cooper (VIC) | ALP 7.8% vs GRN | Lindsay (NSW) | LIB 6.1% |
| Corangamite (VIC) | ALP 7.9% | Flinders (VIC) | LIB 6.2% |
| Greenway (NSW) | ALP 8.0% | Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 6.6% |
| Richmond (NSW) | ALP 8.2% | O’Connor (WA) | LIB 6.7% |
| Whitlam (NSW) | ALP 8.3% | Hume (NSW) | LIB 6.9% |
| Pearce (WA) | ALP 8.8% | Groom (QLD) | LNP 6.9% vs IND |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | ALP 8.9% | Berowra (NSW) | LIB 7.5% |
| Rankin (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | Braddon (TAS) | LIB 8.0% |
| Moreton (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | La Trobe (VIC) | LIB 8.4% |
| Solomon (NT) | ALP 9.4% | Fisher (QLD) | LNP 8.7% |
| Swan (WA) | ALP 9.4% | Fairfax (QLD) | LNP 9.0% |
| Isaacs (VIC) | ALP 9.5% | McPherson (QLD) | LNP 9.3% |
| Macarthur (NSW) | ALP 9.8% | Calare (NSW) | NAT 9.7% vs IND |
| Cowan (WA) | ALP 9.9% | Riverina (NSW) | NAT 9.7% |
| Gorton (VIC) | ALP 10.0% | Grey (SA) | LIB 10.1% |
| Hasluck (WA) | ALP 10.1% | Hinkler (QLD) | LNP 10.1% |
| McMahon (NSW) | ALP 10.5% | Dawson (QLD) | LNP 10.4% |
| Lilley (QLD) | ALP 10.5% | Mitchell (NSW) | LIB 10.5% |
| Makin (SA) | ALP 10.8% | Fadden (QLD) | LNP 10.6% |
| Gellibrand (VIC) | ALP 11.2% | Page (NSW) | NAT 10.7% |
| Bendigo (VIC) | ALP 11.2% | Wright (QLD) | LNP 10.9% |
| Hotham (VIC) | ALP 11.6% | Moncrieff (QLD) | LNP 11.2% |
| Oxley (QLD) | ALP 11.6% | Wide Bay (QLD) | LNP 11.3% |
| Adelaide (SA) | ALP 11.9% | Cook (NSW) | LIB 11.7% |
| Barton (NSW) | ALP 12.0% | Herbert (QLD) | LNP 11.8% |
| Macnamara (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Lyne (NSW) | NAT 13.8% |
| Canberra (ACT) | ALP 12.2% vs GRN | New England (NSW) | NAT 15.2% |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Farrer (NSW) | LIB 16.4% |
| Calwell (VIC) | ALP 12.4% | Barker (SA) | LIB 16.6% |
| Corio (VIC) | ALP 12.5% | Parkes (NSW) | NAT 18.1% |
| Lalor (VIC) | ALP 12.8% | Mallee (VIC) | NAT 19.0% |
| Spence (SA) | ALP 12.9% | Gippsland (VIC) | NAT 20.6% |
| Bean (ACT) | ALP 12.9% | Maranoa (QLD) | LNP 22.1% |
| Ballarat (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Blaxland (NSW) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Burt (WA) | ALP 13.3% | ||
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | ALP 13.3% | Curtin (WA) | IND 1.3% vs LIB |
| Chifley (NSW) | ALP 13.6% | Fowler (NSW) | IND 1.4% vs ALP |
| Franklin (TAS) | ALP 13.7% | Ryan (QLD) | GRN 2.6% vs LNP |
| Perth (WA) | ALP 14.4% | Mackellar (NSW) | IND 3.3% vs LIB |
| Cunningham (NSW) | ALP 15.1% | Kooyong (VIC) | IND 3.5% vs LIB |
| Watson (NSW) | ALP 15.2% | Brisbane (QLD) | GRN 3.7% vs LNP |
| Scullin (VIC) | ALP 15.5% | Goldstein (VIC) | IND 3.9% vs LIB |
| Fenner (ACT) | ALP 15.7% | Melbourne (VIC) | GRN 6.9% vs ALP |
| Kingston (SA) | ALP 16.4% | Indi (VIC) | IND 8.9% vs LIB |
| Sydney (NSW) | ALP 16.5% vs GRN | Wentworth (NSW) | IND 9.0% vs LIB |
| Fraser (VIC) | ALP 16.6% | Warringah (NSW) | IND 9.4% vs LIB |
| Fremantle (WA) | ALP 16.9% | Griffith (QLD) | GRN 10.5% vs LNP |
| Brand (WA) | ALP 17.1% | Mayo (SA) | CA 12.3% vs LIB |
| Grayndler (NSW) | ALP 17.4% vs GRN | Kennedy (QLD) | KAP 13.1% vs LNP |
| Newcastle (NSW) | ALP 17.9% | Clark (TAS) | IND 20.8% vs ALP |
Thank you for your work Ben. I love it.
all boundaries are now final. will be interesting to see if albo goes after the qld election
There should be fixed 4 year term elections. The Albanese government was elected may 2022 and should go to an election in approx may 25. I am sure it will be so
Is anyone else not that impressed by these boundaries, maybe i’m not been practical enough or we’ve been spoilt with boundaries in recent years that have to change due to each division needing to contain a greater amount of people but i think if some of these boundaries continue we might see a bigger push for expanding the house.
Melbourne: Don’t really see the point of losing Fitzroy North and adding South Yarra unless Wills needed voters (although it did contract a little bit). I guess South Yarra had to move due to Higgin abolition and didn’t quite fit in with other seats, don’t think it would’ve been too out of place in Macnamara though.
Macnamara: Thought this would be a good chance to fix the tail with Higgins abolition but it might’ve got skipped over with other worries such as the eastern Melbourne boundaries.
Menzies: Really don’t see the point in removing North Warrandyte and adding it to Jagajaga, it doesn’t provide a large amount of voters to fix any quota issues and is only really connected to Eltham, Research and Kangaroo Ground. It’s a satellite suburb of Warrandyte and shares many interests with the suburb of Warrandyte.
Box Hill and Blackburn make sense with Doncaster and Warrandyte and Doncaster make sense but i don’t think Box and Hill, Blackburn and Warrandyte make too much sense, i guess this is the result of larger divisions though and there’s not much else they can do.
Deakin: Park Orchards fits in well with most of the seat, not sure how well it fits in with the suburbs south of the Eastlink though.
Not a massive fan of splitting Donvale although the two sides are a bit different i guess in terms of feel.
This seat will be intersting because it’s added strong liberal areas in Park Orchards and Donvale but the margin hasn’t changed, i guess they’re not as populated as other suburbs maybe but Sukkar should be safe if he gets swings in these area and minimises swings against in other areas.
Casey: Wonga Park been with Chirnside Park makes sense, been in the same division as the rest of the seat not so much. Does seem like a hard area to do boundaries for though.
Chisolm: Not too sure about this, can anyone let me know if Malvern East and Glen Iris make sense been in the same seat as Glen Waverley.
@north east I think big has about 1/2 a chance of regaining it’s 39th seat after the next election so that would be a good time to fix them up
I don’t have too much of a problem with Malvern East, Glen Iris and Glen Waverley being in the same seat because they are all along the Glen Waverley Line corridor. Generally I think seats focused on a particular train line work pretty well.
Of course, Hotham is a different story. While it’s focused on the Pakenham/Cranbourne lines, it’s hard to see how Murrumbeena and Noble Park share any community of interest whatsoever.
But the stretch of Glen Waverley Line from Malvern East / Darling through to Glen Waverley doesn’t have the dramatic demographic changes that the Pakenham/Cranbourne line has so I think it works ok. Certainly better than Malvern East being in Hotham as per the original draft.
@Trent Ah Okay that makes sense. Yes Hotham always seems to be a bit of a mismatch.
For anyone interested, the gazetted enrolment for October has been released:
https://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/Enrolment_stats/gazetted/2024/10.htm
The only real problem division is Gorton, which is already at +5.80% enrolment deviation and appears to be the fastest growing division in the state. Not quite sure why the ABS projections thought that this division was going to remain stable.
Melbourne and Macnamara are also interesting as they are far lower on enrolment than expected (-5.61% and -4.86%), possibly due to the large presence of non-citizens in the inner city. Sydney appears to be the same.
The 21 divisions in the North and West of the state are currently slightly underenrolled, making up 20.85 quotas. Based on long term trends, they’ll reach 21 quotas roughly 2 years from now.