The AEC released the final maps and data for the Victorian federal redistribution earlier today. In this blog post I’m going to post my final estimates of primary votes, two-party-preferred and two-candidate-preferred margins for each seat. At the end I’ve also posted the final pendulum after the completion of the redistributions in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, although we have the draft boundaries for the NT redistribution due tomorrow.
First up, this map shows the changes between the 2022 boundaries, the draft 2025 boundaries and the final boundaries for Victoria.
As we found out in early September, only nine seats have experienced any change compared to the draft boundaries: Ballarat, Bendigo, Chisholm, Corangamite, Hotham, McEwen, Nicholls, Scullin, Wannon.
You can see this in the margins, because the changes are mostly very small. The Labor margin in Bendigo is cut from 12.1% in 2022, to 12.0% in the draft, to 11.2% in the final version. The Nationals margin in Nicholls drops from 2.5% to 2.3%, and Labor’s margin in McEwen increases from 3.4% to 3.8%. Labor’s margin in Scullin is also up from 15.3% to 15.5%. All the other changes are barely perceptible.
The pendulum is very similar to the one I posted after the draft boundaries were published for NSW in June. In net terms the ALP and Coalition remain on 77 and 58 respectively, with the number of crossbench seats cut from 16 to 15 with the loss of North Sydney. None of the swing-to-win calculations I used there have changed.
Estimates of two-candidate-preferred margins
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Aston | LIB 2.8% | LIB 2.6% |
| Ballarat | ALP 13.0% | ALP 13.0% |
| Bendigo | ALP 12.1% | ALP 12.0% |
| Bruce | ALP 6.6% | ALP 5.3% |
| Calwell | ALP 12.4% | ALP 12.4% |
| Casey | LIB 1.5% | LIB 1.4% |
| Chisholm | ALP 6.4% | ALP 3.3% |
| Cooper | ALP vs GRN 8.7% | ALP vs GRN 7.8% |
| Corangamite | ALP 7.6% | ALP 7.8% |
| Corio | ALP 12.8% | ALP 12.5% |
| Deakin | LIB 0.2% | LIB 0.0% |
| Dunkley | ALP 6.3% | ALP 6.8% |
| Flinders | LIB 6.7% | LIB 6.2% |
| Fraser | ALP 16.5% | ALP 16.6% |
| Gellibrand | ALP 11.5% | ALP 11.2% |
| Gippsland | NAT 20.6% | NAT 20.6% |
| Goldstein | IND vs LIB 2.9% | IND vs LIB 3.9% |
| Gorton | ALP 10.0% | ALP 10.0% |
| Hawke | ALP 7.6% | ALP 7.6% |
| Higgins (abolished) | ALP 2.1% | |
| Holt | ALP 7.1% | ALP 7.1% |
| Hotham | ALP 14.3% | ALP 11.6% |
| Indi | IND vs LIB 8.9% | IND vs LIB 8.9% |
| Isaacs | ALP 6.9% | ALP 9.5% |
| Jagajaga | ALP 12.3% | ALP 12.2% |
| Kooyong | IND vs LIB 2.9% | IND vs LIB 3.5% |
| La Trobe | LIB 8.7% | LIB 8.4% |
| Lalor | ALP 12.8% | ALP 12.8% |
| Macnamara | ALP 12.2% | ALP 12.2% |
| Mallee | NAT 19.0% | NAT 19.0% |
| Maribyrnong | ALP 12.4% | ALP 13.0% |
| McEwen | ALP 3.3% | ALP 3.4% |
| Melbourne | GRN vs ALP 10.2% | GRN vs ALP 6.9% |
| Menzies | LIB 0.7% | ALP 0.4% |
| Monash | LIB 2.9% | LIB 2.9% |
| Nicholls | NAT vs IND 3.8% | NAT vs IND 2.5% |
| Scullin | ALP 15.6% | ALP 15.3% |
| Wannon | LIB vs IND 3.9% | LIB vs IND 3.4% |
| Wills | ALP vs GRN 8.6% | ALP vs GRN 4.6% |
Estimates of vote share for final electoral boundaries
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LIB 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Aston | 47.4 | 52.6 | 32.5 | 42.8 | 12.2 | 0.1 |
| Ballarat | 63.0 | 37.0 | 44.8 | 27.1 | 14.6 | 2.1 |
| Bendigo | 61.2 | 38.8 | 42.1 | 27.3 | 13.8 | 4.7 |
| Bruce | 55.3 | 44.7 | 40.3 | 31.7 | 9.7 | 0.2 |
| Calwell | 62.4 | 37.6 | 44.9 | 23.7 | 9.8 | 0.0 |
| Casey | 48.6 | 51.4 | 25.1 | 36.6 | 13.1 | 11.4 |
| Chisholm | 53.3 | 46.7 | 34.8 | 39.2 | 14.1 | 4.0 |
| Cooper | 75.7 | 24.3 | 40.7 | 16.2 | 28.4 | 0.0 |
| Corangamite | 57.9 | 42.2 | 38.4 | 34.0 | 15.3 | 0.0 |
| Corio | 62.5 | 37.5 | 41.9 | 25.0 | 14.7 | 0.1 |
| Deakin | 50.0 | 50.0 | 32.9 | 41.5 | 14.2 | 1.1 |
| Dunkley | 56.8 | 43.2 | 40.5 | 31.7 | 10.6 | 3.4 |
| Flinders | 43.8 | 56.2 | 22.8 | 43.3 | 9.5 | 11.7 |
| Fraser | 66.6 | 33.4 | 42.1 | 24.5 | 18.9 | 0.0 |
| Gellibrand | 61.2 | 38.8 | 42.8 | 27.2 | 15.6 | 0.3 |
| Gippsland | 29.4 | 70.6 | 19.2 | 54.1 | 8.5 | 0.0 |
| Goldstein | 46.3 | 53.7 | 13.6 | 39.6 | 8.4 | 31.3 |
| Gorton | 60.0 | 40.0 | 41.3 | 27.4 | 9.0 | 2.5 |
| Hawke | 57.6 | 42.4 | 36.7 | 26.4 | 8.9 | 7.9 |
| Holt | 57.1 | 42.9 | 40.8 | 29.5 | 8.6 | 3.0 |
| Hotham | 61.6 | 38.4 | 43.1 | 28.6 | 14.7 | 0.3 |
| Indi | 44.7 | 55.3 | 8.6 | 34.3 | 3.6 | 40.7 |
| Isaacs | 59.5 | 40.5 | 42.8 | 29.5 | 12.1 | 0.0 |
| Jagajaga | 62.2 | 37.8 | 40.8 | 29.2 | 16.7 | 3.0 |
| Kooyong | 46.3 | 53.7 | 11.3 | 43.4 | 9.9 | 31.0 |
| La Trobe | 41.6 | 58.4 | 26.2 | 45.2 | 10.9 | 0.0 |
| Lalor | 62.8 | 37.2 | 44.1 | 25.0 | 10.4 | 2.8 |
| Macnamara | 62.2 | 37.8 | 31.7 | 29.1 | 29.7 | 1.9 |
| Mallee | 31.0 | 69.0 | 16.8 | 49.1 | 5.3 | 12.2 |
| Maribyrnong | 63.0 | 37.0 | 42.2 | 26.8 | 16.7 | 0.0 |
| McEwen | 53.8 | 46.2 | 37.2 | 32.7 | 14.1 | 0.0 |
| Melbourne | 73.1 | 26.9 | 25.7 | 19.5 | 44.7 | 1.0 |
| Menzies | 50.4 | 49.6 | 31.8 | 41.0 | 12.9 | 4.9 |
| Monash | 47.1 | 52.9 | 25.6 | 37.8 | 9.9 | 10.7 |
| Nicholls | 34.2 | 65.8 | 13.2 | 43.4 | 3.7 | 24.1 |
| Scullin | 65.5 | 34.5 | 46.3 | 21.7 | 10.9 | 0.0 |
| Wannon | 41.4 | 58.7 | 19.6 | 44.2 | 6.7 | 20.9 |
| Wills | 77.1 | 22.9 | 36.4 | 16.2 | 32.8 | 0.2 |
Pendulum
| Labor Seats | Coalition Seats | ||
| Seat | Margin | Seat | Margin |
| Gilmore (NSW) | ALP 0.2% | Deakin (VIC) | LIB 0.0% |
| Menzies (VIC) | ALP 0.4% | Bennelong (NSW) | LIB 0.1% |
| Lyons (TAS) | ALP 0.9% | Sturt (SA) | LIB 0.5% |
| Lingiari (NT) | ALP 0.9% | Moore (WA) | LIB 0.9% |
| Robertson (NSW) | ALP 2.2% | Canning (WA) | LIB 1.2% |
| Paterson (NSW) | ALP 2.6% | Casey (VIC) | LIB 1.4% |
| Tangney (WA) | ALP 2.8% | Bass (TAS) | LIB 1.4% |
| Boothby (SA) | ALP 3.3% | Dickson (QLD) | LNP 1.7% |
| Bullwinkel (WA) | ALP 3.3% | Nicholls (VIC) | NAT 2.3% vs IND |
| Chisholm (VIC) | ALP 3.3% | Cowper (NSW) | NAT 2.4% vs IND |
| Parramatta (NSW) | ALP 3.7% | Bradfield (NSW) | LIB 2.5% |
| McEwen (VIC) | ALP 3.8% | Aston (VIC) | LIB 2.6% |
| Wills (VIC) | ALP 4.6% vs GRN | Banks (NSW) | LIB 2.6% |
| Hunter (NSW) | ALP 4.8% | Monash (VIC) | LIB 2.9% |
| Reid (NSW) | ALP 5.2% | Longman (QLD) | LNP 3.1% |
| Blair (QLD) | ALP 5.2% | Bonner (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Bruce (VIC) | ALP 5.3% | Leichhardt (QLD) | LNP 3.4% |
| Werriwa (NSW) | ALP 5.3% | Hughes (NSW) | LIB 3.5% |
| Shortland (NSW) | ALP 6.0% | Wannon (VIC) | NAT 3.5% vs IND |
| Eden-Monaro (NSW) | ALP 6.1% | Flynn (QLD) | LNP 3.8% |
| Macquarie (NSW) | ALP 6.3% | Forrest (WA) | LIB 4.2% |
| Dobell (NSW) | ALP 6.6% | Forde (QLD) | LNP 4.2% |
| Dunkley (VIC) | ALP 6.8% | Petrie (QLD) | LNP 4.4% |
| Holt (VIC) | ALP 7.1% | Durack (WA) | LIB 4.7% |
| Hawke (VIC) | ALP 7.6% | Bowman (QLD) | LNP 5.5% |
| Cooper (VIC) | ALP 7.8% vs GRN | Lindsay (NSW) | LIB 6.1% |
| Corangamite (VIC) | ALP 7.9% | Flinders (VIC) | LIB 6.2% |
| Greenway (NSW) | ALP 8.0% | Capricornia (QLD) | LNP 6.6% |
| Richmond (NSW) | ALP 8.2% | O’Connor (WA) | LIB 6.7% |
| Whitlam (NSW) | ALP 8.3% | Hume (NSW) | LIB 6.9% |
| Pearce (WA) | ALP 8.8% | Groom (QLD) | LNP 6.9% vs IND |
| Hindmarsh (SA) | ALP 8.9% | Berowra (NSW) | LIB 7.5% |
| Rankin (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | Braddon (TAS) | LIB 8.0% |
| Moreton (QLD) | ALP 9.1% | La Trobe (VIC) | LIB 8.4% |
| Solomon (NT) | ALP 9.4% | Fisher (QLD) | LNP 8.7% |
| Swan (WA) | ALP 9.4% | Fairfax (QLD) | LNP 9.0% |
| Isaacs (VIC) | ALP 9.5% | McPherson (QLD) | LNP 9.3% |
| Macarthur (NSW) | ALP 9.8% | Calare (NSW) | NAT 9.7% vs IND |
| Cowan (WA) | ALP 9.9% | Riverina (NSW) | NAT 9.7% |
| Gorton (VIC) | ALP 10.0% | Grey (SA) | LIB 10.1% |
| Hasluck (WA) | ALP 10.1% | Hinkler (QLD) | LNP 10.1% |
| McMahon (NSW) | ALP 10.5% | Dawson (QLD) | LNP 10.4% |
| Lilley (QLD) | ALP 10.5% | Mitchell (NSW) | LIB 10.5% |
| Makin (SA) | ALP 10.8% | Fadden (QLD) | LNP 10.6% |
| Gellibrand (VIC) | ALP 11.2% | Page (NSW) | NAT 10.7% |
| Bendigo (VIC) | ALP 11.2% | Wright (QLD) | LNP 10.9% |
| Hotham (VIC) | ALP 11.6% | Moncrieff (QLD) | LNP 11.2% |
| Oxley (QLD) | ALP 11.6% | Wide Bay (QLD) | LNP 11.3% |
| Adelaide (SA) | ALP 11.9% | Cook (NSW) | LIB 11.7% |
| Barton (NSW) | ALP 12.0% | Herbert (QLD) | LNP 11.8% |
| Macnamara (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Lyne (NSW) | NAT 13.8% |
| Canberra (ACT) | ALP 12.2% vs GRN | New England (NSW) | NAT 15.2% |
| Jagajaga (VIC) | ALP 12.2% | Farrer (NSW) | LIB 16.4% |
| Calwell (VIC) | ALP 12.4% | Barker (SA) | LIB 16.6% |
| Corio (VIC) | ALP 12.5% | Parkes (NSW) | NAT 18.1% |
| Lalor (VIC) | ALP 12.8% | Mallee (VIC) | NAT 19.0% |
| Spence (SA) | ALP 12.9% | Gippsland (VIC) | NAT 20.6% |
| Bean (ACT) | ALP 12.9% | Maranoa (QLD) | LNP 22.1% |
| Ballarat (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Blaxland (NSW) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Maribyrnong (VIC) | ALP 13.0% | ||
| Burt (WA) | ALP 13.3% | ||
| Kingsford Smith (NSW) | ALP 13.3% | Curtin (WA) | IND 1.3% vs LIB |
| Chifley (NSW) | ALP 13.6% | Fowler (NSW) | IND 1.4% vs ALP |
| Franklin (TAS) | ALP 13.7% | Ryan (QLD) | GRN 2.6% vs LNP |
| Perth (WA) | ALP 14.4% | Mackellar (NSW) | IND 3.3% vs LIB |
| Cunningham (NSW) | ALP 15.1% | Kooyong (VIC) | IND 3.5% vs LIB |
| Watson (NSW) | ALP 15.2% | Brisbane (QLD) | GRN 3.7% vs LNP |
| Scullin (VIC) | ALP 15.5% | Goldstein (VIC) | IND 3.9% vs LIB |
| Fenner (ACT) | ALP 15.7% | Melbourne (VIC) | GRN 6.9% vs ALP |
| Kingston (SA) | ALP 16.4% | Indi (VIC) | IND 8.9% vs LIB |
| Sydney (NSW) | ALP 16.5% vs GRN | Wentworth (NSW) | IND 9.0% vs LIB |
| Fraser (VIC) | ALP 16.6% | Warringah (NSW) | IND 9.4% vs LIB |
| Fremantle (WA) | ALP 16.9% | Griffith (QLD) | GRN 10.5% vs LNP |
| Brand (WA) | ALP 17.1% | Mayo (SA) | CA 12.3% vs LIB |
| Grayndler (NSW) | ALP 17.4% vs GRN | Kennedy (QLD) | KAP 13.1% vs LNP |
| Newcastle (NSW) | ALP 17.9% | Clark (TAS) | IND 20.8% vs ALP |
@captain yes well unfortunately they are just using best guess. i mean an asteroid could strike gorton tomorrow lowering its population severely or they could build a job generating nuclear plant in monash or la trobe that brings more people a year from now. they just rely on the numbers of the day.
higgins likely wont be reinstated if a new seat were created next redistribution as the seat would be above the yarra whereas higgins was below. but if and when parliament expands i fully intend to recreate Higgins