Podcast #133: Final week of the Queensland election

Thanks Damian so there will be a large portion of onp votes in Townsville seats which go to kap

Good morning everyone, today is election day. It’s currently 0–0 in the Matildas game for those who are wondering.

I’m predicting that a lot of seats will be in doubt on election night because of the large prepoll numbers. 1.2 million people have already voted, which is quite a significant figure. Some key marginal seats without a huge minor party vote like Townsville will be called first, while Thuringowa will be called after because of the large KAP vote (though it would lean LNP all night and likely go LNP). But of course before any marginal seats are called it’ll obviously be the safe seats that get called first.

I predict an LNP majority on election night that will expand after because of prepolls. The swing will be on as soon as the clock hits 6:00pm in Queensland and results should come in at 6:30pm AEST (remember we unfortunately don’t have daylight savings in Queensland).

Match ended 1–1.

Also I don’t think that the LNP is gonna lose, though the progressives on this site are saying otherwise. Labor has been in for nine years and finally there’s a charismatic Opposition Leader.

I also am disappointed that Labor and KAP are fighting to make abortion an issue. We’ve got a cost of living crisis, a housing crisis, a crime crisis, etc and yet we’re focusing on abortion. The LNP are avoiding it for a reason: because they want to form government without a scare campaign or an American-style agenda (i.e Democrat = pro-choice, Republican = pro-life, or should I say anti-abortion because the Republicans still support the death penalty and castle law).

@NP I agree the LNP are going to win this election, I’ve been on pre-poll and the mood for change has been felt, we may see a few surprises tonight, some seats on higher margins will flip

I would prefer an LNP minority or even Labor minority just to see how the term unfolds, but I think an LNP majority is still quite likely. The TPP will probably fall somewhere between the late-game Labor surge figures and the most positive LNP polls, so like 54-46 or 55-45. I’ll probably be keeping a particular eye on those KAP and Green primary votes in their respective target seats, they’ve both been hyped up at times throughout the campaign and the crossbench could turn into an utter mess if even a few seats go right for both of them.

@Laine KAP would be the most anti-abortion party and the Greens the most pro-abortion party. Similarly the Greens would be the wokest party.

Final prediction: Miles hangs on

ALP Gain from LNP: Ipswich West, Coomera
LNP Gain from ALP: Barron River, Mulgrave, Mundingburra, Townsville, Thuringowa, Mackay, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Nicklin
GRN gain from ALP: McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes, Miller
Ind gain from ALP: Rockhampton
KAP retain (gain from PHON): Mirani

Totals (if I’ve counted correctly from the above gains)
ALP: 39 (+2, -9, -4, -1 = -12)
LNP: 42 (+9, -2=+7)
GRN: 6
KAP: 4
IND: 2

Result: An absolute mess but I think a Labor minority government – Labor getting to 47 with Greens and the 2 independents and the only path to government without the Katters (whose abortion and FNQ referendum campaigning might be enough to scare the independents into going with Labor despite fewer seats). Election night will play into this with KAP looking good in Thuringowa, Mundingburra and Mulgrave, and election day votes making seats like Burleigh and Currumbin look like possible Labor gains before prepolls come in. A “Crisafulli didn’t do well enough” narrative will crystallise throughout the night and possibly get a concession out of Crisafulli.

There’s a prospect that KAP and Greens are overhyped. KAP may not gain anything and Greens may just get one and not the two or three they are hoping for.

I see some of us are still living in their version of reality.

The KAP made abortion an issue this election.
The LNP couldn’t (or wouldn’t?) articulate a clear position.
“It’s not in our plan” is not a satisfactory response from a prospective state leader.
Candidates such as Freya Ostapovitch went around and behind their “charismatic leader” implying in broad daylight they would support KAP’s bill.
The future health minister froze like a deer in the spotlight, to the extent that she may not be the future health minister after all.
As the government that passed the law and provided these protections in the first place, the ALP not only had the right but the duty to defend the status quo and question the LNP’s inability to form a position.
The fact that it became an election issue is an indictment on the LNP, not the ALP.
Your future deputy premier failed to show for a debate.
Your future treasurer hid bravely in the shadows and released costings only once the ban on political advertising began.
Your future premier has the charisma of an excel sheet.
None of them have the right to legislate control over the choices my wife, daughter, sister, nieces etc should exercise and choose for themselves.
Anyhow, tonight will still be your night. Congratulations to you.
I just hope your folk govern wisely, in the best interests of all.

Onto another topic.
Hardly anybody – progressive or otherwise – is saying that the LNP will lose this election. Not a single person.
There has been talk about the *hypothetical* of a hung parliament, yet even then most acknowledge the LNP will win the most seats.
You throw around the word progressive like it’s an insult (rather like the American politics that you rightly abhor and don’t wish to see here).
Let me tell you a few things.
Progressives (in all parties) gave women the vote.
Progressives (in all parties) extended rights for the indigenous.
Progressives (in all parties) ended the White Australia Policy.
Progressives (in all parties) changed the laws concerning divorce.
Progressives (in all parties) introduced, extended and celebrated multiculturalism in this country.
Progressives (in all parties) legislated to make native title a reality.
Progressives (in all parties) made marriage equality law.
Progressives (in all parties) support the right of a woman to choose.
To be a progressive is to stand on the correct side of the issues throughout history.
One can be progressive in the context of a conservative party.
Even to be a conservative is admire – if they wish to conserve the status quo.
Where you don’t want to stand is to be regressive.
Exactly where the KAP planted their flag with their abortion bill.

In the time that it took me to write that diatribe, John contradicted me with the prediction of a Miles government. So I guess I’m now plainly wrong when I say “Hardly anybody – progressive or otherwise – is saying that the LNP will lose this election. Not a single person.”

It’s important to acknowledge mistakes.

@BNJ Miles won’t hang on, not enough Greens. I don’t think the Greens are getting six seats, that would be more than in Victoria which is their strongest state.

@Real Talk by progressive I mean socially leftist, e.g the Greens. I would use words like “moderate” and “small-l-liberal” to define Australians who are supportive of social policies that are typically supported by Labor or the Greens but are still debated in the Coalition. Sam O’Connor for example is a moderate and is a fantastic MP for my seat of Bonney. I proudly voted for him and even if the LNP government is bad I will vote for him again so he can hold the right-wingers to account.

Tonight is gonna be a long night. I’m gonna be awake until midnight for the results and discussion (maybe even later if I can stand it) so I’ll have been awake for at least 19 hours. That’s as long as a direct flight from Sydney to Chicago.

@Votante: It’s also possible Greens gain no new seats. McConnel and Cooper are one degree of difficulty, Greenslopes and Miller the next. I am predicting they’ll do well enough with extensive campaigning in those seats and Labor’s policies reinforcing Greens values and campaigns (where they’re on the radar) to get all 4..The path in Greenslopes and Miller is a lot tougher if Labor aren’t going to collapse as predicted earlier in the election, but I don’t see the voters convinced by a doorknocker to switch to Greens when thinking Miles was doomed will be in a hurry to vote 1 Labor again.

KAP might have messed up by positioning themselves to the right of the LNP instead of their usual wildcard status. They stand to do well in Labor held seats where long term Labor voters may not want to go straight to LNP. Perhaps at a local level that’s still the case (thinking of the ALP->PHON->LNP dynamic in these areas).

@Real Talk – I’m nobody important so don’t fret. The most important thing is Miles isn’t acting like he’s going to lose. He has challenged the conventional political wisdom that you should acknowledge when you’re way behind in the polls that you’re probably going to lose and try to save the furniture on that basis..I think it will pay off for him, win or lose. People were talking about 2012 and Kirkup earlier in this cycle and that’s not what this looks like at all.

I agree things have narrowed significantly. I admit my previous predictions were a bit bullish, But we should still see an LNP majority.

I am in agreement the LNP will be around 48-56 seats. I am going to say LNP 52, which is the reverse of 2020. ALP to be at around 35 seats so around what the LNP got in 2020. Andrew will lose his seat in Mirani (which is backed up by some poll in the seat showing the LNP on around 40% primary)

Labor closing the gap however could guarantee the LNP win all Townsville seats because it could mean Katter’s miss out on 2nd place. My advice to Labor voters in those seats is to tactically vote ”1” for Katter’s if they don’t want an LNP member.

Cook should remain Labor and Mulgrave is on a knife-edge.

Greens to not make any gains at all, Outside chance Labor re-gain South Brisbane which could spell trouble for Max in Griffith next year. (especially if the LNP preference against him and ALP can get 2nd)

TPP will be around 53-47 LNP/ALP.

I wish everyone luck on their predictions.

I have Cooper as a greens gain. Mconnel as a Labor loss but it could go to either lnp or greens. Greenslopes is a toss-up between liberal and labor and miller as Labor retain

If Labor gets 30+ seats, it would be a miraculous turnaround for a leader and party that were mentioned in the same sentence as “wipeout” for most of the year. I would attribute this to Miles’s relative popularity in Brisbane and sandbagging of various seats.

Some time ago, I crazily put money on a hung parliament.

I’m tipping statewide LNP gets a 2PP of 53% to 54%.

@votante they were able to do that by providing things they knew they never would have to or could for that fact deliver though

I think matters will finish with at least 4 but could finish with as ,any as maybe 6

If anyone hasn’t voted yet, I’m changing my recommendations. Put KAP below One Nation but above Labor and the Greens if you’re in a seat that KAP is running in.

@John, interesting figures, I will watch for that tonight, a big thanks to KAP, the abortion bill was early enough for Voters to reflect on past LNP behaviour and put away the sledge hammer, I believe it will be an LNP government but ALP won’t be reduced to a Tarago, they will at least be a coaster bus😉

@ron I don’t think it’s the abortion thing that’s just something Labor brings out like Medicare every election and people are smart enough to see through it. Anyone who votes Labor over lnp over abortion is likely already voting for them. I think it was probly the unreasonable promises Labor made knowing they’d never had to honour them.

@np I’m recommending everyone in Cook puts KAP 1 especially if your a lib voter. While the lnp may win it this time around they won’t hold the seat longer then one term. Having a KAP mp in Cook is better for lib and centre right voters in the long term.

Final Predictions:
LNP Gains: Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Pumicestone, Gaven, Springwood, Redlands, Pine Rivers, Capalaba, Redcliffe, Macalister, Mansfield, Mackay, Mundingburra, Thuringowa, Townsville, Barron River, Mulgrave, Mount Ommaney, Aspley
ALP Gain: Ipswich West
GRN Gain: Cooper
ONP Gain: Keppel
IND Gain: Rockhampton
Toss-Ups: Bancroft, Noosa, Kurwongbah, Mirani, Cairns, Cook, Ferny Grove

@James interesting that you think One Nation will win Keppel. What’s your reasoning for this?

I mostly agree though, in fact I think all of those will be LNP gains. I would add McConnel for the Greens though.

My final map of predictions will come very soon. I’ll be starting with a blank slate this time instead of updating it, so I can individually predict seats.

@Nether Portal, after you go off to bed, I will be doing an all nighter tonight.

Not long after the election coverage, UFC 308 will be on, live in Abu Dhabi. Aussie Robert Whittaker will be facing the very scary Khamzat Chimaev. In the main event: rising-star Ilia Topuria takes on crowd-favourite Max Holloway. With the winner tipped to go on to face Australian legend, Alexander the Great Volkanovski at next year’s UFC Sydney.

As the count unfolds, I will be reporting live from the division of Cooper at Suncorp Stadium where I will be raging to Travis Scott and sporadically keeping abreast with developments on the ABC election results portal.

FINAL MAP OF PREDICTIONS OUT: https://jmp.sh/sNRrPGjh

As for the grey seats, the light grey ones are independent seats while the dark grey ones are tossups.

* Tossups: Bancroft, Cairns, Ferny Grove, Ipswich West, Kurwongbah, Logan, Maryborough, Mirani (LNP/KAP)

Now that I think about it I’m leaning to putting Cairns as an LNP gain.

I would lean more to Cairns being an LNP gain than a tossup, but it will be close for sure.

Pretty confident that Ferny Grove will not be in play for the LNP. The election in the Brisbane region is a very different one to the election outside of it.

Interesting to see the same posters making the same predictions as they did in 2020.

Watching where the leaders have been seems to indicate a similar result to 2020, i.e., Labor gaining 5 seats from the LNP and not much else changing.
IMHO, seats to watch are Ipswich West, Burleigh, Coomera, Currumbin, Chatsworth, Clayfield, Ninderry & Maroochydore.

Il be watching it live from Chicago. Il be posting from just after 6pm qld time due to just about to board ,y flight to chocago. Il be posting probably all night since it will be about 1am when i arrive and have not much else to do till morning

@Watson Watch Labor isn’t gonna gain any more seats. Labor is too unpopular outside Brisbane. They have become a Brisbane-centric party. Steven Miles hasn’t visited Townsville much for a reason: because he has seats in the southeast to defend.

We can kinda ignore Bundaberg and Hervey Bay, they’re gone. They’ve been gone since the end of the election, Hervey Bay is normally a safe LNP seat and Bundaberg has been good for the LNP since 2006.

Never say never, the only places where there is an outside chance of an upset Labor win are Chatsworth and Clayfield.

@Banana Republic – I posted about possible LNP losses up the thread. If Labor is doing well in “outer suburb” type areas and with young families they might be able to snatch Coomera and that’s what I’m predicting. Burleigh (retiring incumbent) and Currumbin might be interesting with younger voters, Small-l Liberals and some interest in the implications of the 50c fares policy. Proximity to decent public transport (or plans for it) or other motivators not to drive I think will track with a relatively high Labor vote. That will be seen most in greater Brisbane, but also Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast (which I think will save Caloundra assuming Hunt is doing enough sandbagging).

@NP – I just think that ONP with Ashby have been pumping a heck-ton of money into this seat. I think that combined with Labor’s general malaise in support in Central QLD and ON taking this seriously I think that Ashby will win, but I overall feel that Keppel will be an ALP loss regardless. LNP gain is feasible and likely but you never know what will happen.

On to McConnel, I see this seat as either going LNP (exit poll was very promising and the LNP candidate has still ran a strong campaign off of the LNP’s resource base in Central Brisbane), Greens (federal figures and a very hard campaign), or ALP retain (Grace Grace’s personal vote and Miles doing well in inner-city areas). This is a tossup that I should have added but I can’t predict who will win. Fascinating contest we’re in for.

Final tip:
LNP: 54
Labor: 28
Greens: 4
KAP: 4
One Nation: 1
Independents: 2

Nether Portal,
I look forward to reading your comments later this evening.

How come people are so confident that Ashby (One Nation) is picking up Keppel?

@Votante he’s campaigned hard. The most effort One Nation put into a seat in years, shoulda done what’s happening in 2017 and then he would’ve won on LNP preferences. I don’t think he’ll win, I think the LNP will win but he’ll have the highest One Nation vote in the state.

@Votante mostly because One Nation has dumped a ton of money into the seat and it’s their only hope of retaining any relevancy whatsoever. I really don’t see it happening though, I’m in Keppel pretty often and from what I see I’d just expect a classic LNP win v LAB. He’ll get a higher primary vote than his fellow candidates elsewhere but I doubt it’ll push him over the line from third.

@John Good point! I hadn’t thought of Coomera as an outside chance of Lab gain but come to think of it COL measures should be really popular among the higher proportion of families there. Labor have also been doing a lot of infrastructure build there like the Coomera connector.

Proximity to decent public transport will definitely help the Labor vote in Brisbane and GC with 50c fares.

This election is going to be a really interesting one! Labor will be hammered in the first couple days of early voting, so the Question is will Labor win the election day vote and by how much. Miles has really run a fantastic campaign, brining the polls in from 58-56 to 53-51 LNP on 2PP. Federal Labor could learn a lot from how Miles brough energy to an old Government, and how well he used social media to connect with young people. A lot of young people at my uni have been talking about Steven Miles being a great premier, and the only other time I have come across politics naturally coming up in conversation was in Fed 2022 with the Greens free uni policy.

Another interesting tidbit, young dudes in my local gym really like steven miles, presumably because he’s a strong bloke and presents as very masculine with things like bench pressing 100kg the other day. In western countries (particularly the US) the left is starting to run into a bit of a problem with some young men as the right presents as more masculine than the left, and to these young men that is important. Just as how professional women candidates are really important for teal demographics, maybe outwardly masculine candidates are the key to bringing this right-skewing young men demographic to the left.

@TBR you do realise that Andrew Tate isn’t as big as people say anywhere in the world, right? If he were bigger then no woman would be feeling safe, we wouldn’t have as much support for women’s sports teams like the Matildas, etc. But yes young men are feeling left out so they are skewing right. But men have always been more conservative than women.

I don’t think Labor will win the election day vote. They will in a fair few seats but I don’t think Crisafulli will concede only for Miles to concede. If he did lose even if he picks up seats which is inevitable whether Labor likes it or not (you can’t go four straight elections increasing your majority especially after these polls) then it’ll be because of Labor’s scare campaign around abortion. However that would pressure the LNP to become more moderate. If Labor actually wins then they won’t win in 2028, we’re not having Labor in that long here in Queensland, the most conservative state in Australia.

You’ve already had 30 years of Labor in the past 35. What’s four more? 🤣

2012 – Well, get ready for 20 years of LNP government!
2015 – Well, Labor won’t win next time around
2017 – Well. Labor won’t win next time around
2020 – Well, Labor won’t win next time around
2024 – ????

LNP Gain from ALP: Barron River, Mulgrave, Mundingburra, Townsville, Thuringowa, Keppel, Hervey Bay, Bundaberg, Nicklin, Caloundra, Pumicestone, Aspley, Redcliffe, Pine Rivers, Redlands, Capalaba, Mansfield, Springwood, Gaven
GRN gain from ALP: Cooper
Ind gain from ALP: Rockhampton

Toss ups Murrumba, Bancroft, Stafford, Mt Ommaney, Maiwar, Mackay, Cairns.

I also am watching Morayfield and Waterford. I almost feel like an upset in one of them is more likely than Mt Ommaney or Murrumba.

Alnp an upset in waterford all but guarantees dick is opposition leader. I can’t see miles staying on because he’s just a reminder of the old govt

At the start of the election campaign
Was 58/42. Lnp way
Then 55/45
Then 53/47
Then 52 .5/47.5
So there has been a shift of 5 to 6% in labors favour
This equals a very small lnp majority or a hung parliament . On this basis more alp seats will be retained no wipe out

Mick I think the true start figure was 54-46 that’s the newspoll base anyway

Prediction:
LNP: 49
ALP: 37
GRN: 2
KAP: 3
IND: 2

LNP GAIN: Aspley, Barron River, Bundaberg, Caloundra, Cook, Hervey Bay, Keppel, Mackay, Mirani, Mulgrave, Mundingburra, Nicklin, Thuringowa, Townsville
ALP GAIN: Ipswich West
IND GAIN: Rockhampton
GRN and KAP wont gain any

I would be surprised if the lnp lose any seats they hold going into the election
On the assumption that the opinion polls are right Labor has improved their 2pp by 5 to 6% during the campaign. This must equal more seats retained . I think it unlikely that there will be a alp majority but a narrow lnp majority or a hung parliament are the most likely. Heck there is even a chance that kap wins one of the Townsville seats.!

@ john you could be right
?55 5 to 44 5

@mick they may lose ipswich west which was won on an above average by election swing but that’s it