Podcast #133: Final week of the Queensland election

In deciding who is in government the cross bench needs to make their decision.
It is not a coalition nor seats in the ministry
Just confidence and supply
There has been an assumption that the lnp will win all 3 seats in Townsville now this is not the case.
Because the lnp has undermined Labor there so well with drops in alp primary of > 10% then it is Possible that kap wins at least 1 of the seats there
It would be funny if this was the seat previously held by the opposition leader.

The Katters cannot so neatly be classified.
Bob was quite happy to be part of the np till there was a falling out. They dislike the nats now but they aim to keep and expand their seats. The abortion stuff was about undermining the libs in their own interests.
A lnp landslide does not suit their aims more suitable is a hung parliament which has an even chance of happening.

@Nether Portal – on election night Rebecca White left the door open to fight out negotiations but she was rolled into rolling over by SDA party hacks into conceding the next day. The difference being that Rockliff would have first opportunity to form government (by convention) – in QLD the shoe is on the other foot.

It would be out of character for Miles to fight his way to not losing in the face of near certain defeat, only to give up at the hurdle of minority government negotiations, especially when he has the first right to test the confidence of the house. He could give the Greens absolutely nothing in negotiations and dare them to be the votes that topple his government, get Bolton, Strelow and the Katters on side, and continue to govern.

I don’t see Miles conceding until Crisafulli gets 47 or an iron clad agreement with the Katters.

@ BNJ
I would think it is best to do with Rebecca White to concede rather than form a Rainbow Coalition with KAP, Greens. If Labor fell two seats short then Bolton and Strelow will be ok. However, Labor should not be willing to grant a referendum on NQ statewood best to walk away. If Crisafaulli gets to 45 concede for Labor is the best bet. It is better to have a chaotic LNP state government as it will benefit Albanese. Having Chaos in Tasmania will help Labor retain Lyons federally.

Predictions for num er of seats?

The framing of NZ 2017 was “Labor NZ First coalition”, with Greens on the outer despite getting some ministries. Miles could do similar – a “Coalition” with the Katters who get ministries etc. with Greens visibly left out in the cold, both majors refusing to negotiate with them. Even if given absolutely nothing I think Greens would ultimately side with Labor (not even abstain) and their base would never go for supporting a no confidence motion.

Crisafulli getting 45 or 46 will probably be enough for Strelow and Bolton to feel they have no choice but to let Crisafulli govern, and avoid empowering Greens or Katters. Any less and it’s a street fight

@John

LNP: 53
Labor: 30
Greens: 4
KAP: 4
Independents: 2

It is scrapping the bottom of the barrels if Labor agrees to a vote to potentially break up the state and cause Chaos for Federal Labor. With a new state everything from Coat of arms to number of senators will change, it will be better for Labor not do something so stupid out of desperation.

I can see Labor treating QLD as a lost cause federally given they’re up against a leader from QLD. The only seats they won off LNP during the Newman years are Herbert and Longman which they lost again (Herbert is probably never coming back in the foreseeable future). State government is the big prize to play for.

Would an FNQ referendum be a disastrous thing to allow? I think media would report that it’s unlikely to succeed, with the natural tendency to vote no for referenda. LNP are wedged – the referendum has no chance if they don’t support a Yes vote, but if they support a Yes vote they can’t get mad at whatever state government allowed it to go ahead. There’d also be ways to confound it – for example, a simultaneous national vote on whether to admit NQ as a state, with it to only be a territory (with no guarantee of self government) if it votes to break away from QLD. Statehood for the ACT and NT could be thrown into the mix. When referendums get complicated, the tendency is to vote no.

Plus that’s not the only deal Katters could make.

It just doesn’t seem worth it for Miles to give up unless he’s resoundingly defeated.

Longman and Herbert were won in 2016 when Labor held QLD state government – I was referring to the residual influence. Would a federal election in the last days of the Newman government have resulted in a lot of gains for Labor? Don’t think so, the same way the early days of Newman (which happened after many of the cuts) didn’t stop Abbott from winning lots of QLD seats in 2013.

Disagree strongly with that. If Federal Labor wants to be a longer term government they need a better result in QLD. The only reason they won a bare majority last time with a bad result in QLD is that they did super well in WA. It is the reason why Federal Labor had to win Unorthodox seats like Higgins and Tangney last time. They need to win a seat Petrie, Bonner and Forde longer term, although i concede i dont seem them winning those 3 in 2025. A FNQ referendum could be a massive distraction and be Australia version of Brexit. Also Federal Labor will not be happy as it will create a very right leaning state especially in Senate election. It also be massive waste of taxpayer money.

Newman for the record is talked about like he was an utterly disastrous premier who lost like Bligh, but he almost won in 2015. I think his reputation, if he held on, would have resulted in a colossal defeat in the election after.

At any rate, Newman taking an early L didn’t stop Nicholls and Frecklington from being heavily attacked for association with Newman. Similarly Bligh surviving one term longer than everyone expected, and then being utterly crushed, didn’t stop Labor from coming back in 2015. So Miles probably isn’t going to listen to anyone who tells him that if he hangs on for dear life now Labor will be out of power for a generation the term after.

When it comes to 2PP, I don’t recall Weatherill in SA being called an illegitimate premier for the 2014-18 term. He clung to power by drawing in independents from notionally Liberal seats and even flipping a Liberal member. Same Labor faction as Miles.

Even Albo publicly begging Miles to concede (very unlikely) probably won’t be enough. It only ends when Crisafulli secures a majority support from the house.

By Sunday morning all these hypotheticals could be a waste of typing space. But it’s fun to think about.

Fnq state
Would have to be supported by the federal government whatever these people voted for

What would be the boundaries of fnq?

Any party that agrees to a referendum to break up the state is not fit to lead the state. Simple.

It’s not a realistic proposition.

@Mick Quinlivan that would very much depend on what is classified as North Queensland. Some definitions have the boundary at Burdekin, while others have it at the Whitsundays or Mackay or even as far south as Rockhampton and Gladstone.

If you look at a map of Queensland’s regions on Wikipedia, you’ll find that North Queensland extends from the Burdekin area out to Mount Isa while Far North Queensland extends from the Cassowary Coast up to the Torres Strait Islands right until the sea border with PNG.

The North Queensland Cowboys in the NRL (which is David Crisafulli’s favourite team) have a lot of supporters around Queensland and PNG (often people who wanted to support a Queensland but chose their team during the time when the Brisbane Broncos and the Gold Coast Titans weren’t very good, with the latter still typically being at the lower half of the table) mostly from Gladstone up to PNG.

Another possible boundary could be the Tropic of Capricorn, though what that would do is split the city of Rockhampton into two (the northern half would be in North Queensland while the southern half would be in Queensland, or “South Queensland”). However, while uncommon in Australia, in the US there are a few cities and towns that cross state lines (such as Kansas City, which is mostly in Missouri but partially in Kansas). There are some combined urban areas in Australia that cross state borders (e.g Gold Coast-Tweed Heads and Albury-Wodonga) but in the US there are plenty of them.

@ Real Talk
I am 100% with you. It is like if the Labor party in the UK agreed to another indyref for Scotland if they formed a minority. I oppose such a move and if any party agrees to it they ought to get a backlash.

Suppose there is a North Queensland independence referendum, who gets to vote? Everyone in QLD?

This could get messy like the voice and republic referendums where the Yes sides are uncoordinated and they will be painted as risky. The Yes side will argue over each other – where the capital will be, where does NQ start and end, even what the flag will look like.

It would be interesting to see a poll for how many people in which parts of North Queensland would support succession. In the Scottish independence referendum back in 2014 the only local authorities that voted Yes were Dundee (57.3%), Glasgow (53.5%), North Lanarkshire (51.1%) and West Dunbartonshire (54.0%), all of which at least were once SNP-dominated areas (Glasgow is now back to being a Labour city). Dundee is the outlier because the other three areas are all near each other. I wonder if it would be the opposite in North Queensland (i.e Townsville and Cairns oppose it but the regions, especially the rural areas in Kennedy, are a bit more supportive).

The Remain vote in the Brexit referendum, similar to the Yes vote in the Voice referendum, was highest in the affluent and socially progressive parts of the inner-city. The seat with the highest Remain vote was Streatham which was a Labour seat in South London (79.5% Remain), while the highest Leave vote was in Boston and Skegness which was a Tory seat and is now a Reform seat in Lincolnshire (74.9% Leave). The constituency of Streatham no longer exists and was replaced by Clapham and Brixton Hill and Streatham and North Croydon in the 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster Constituencies. To put it into context, the Conservative vote in Boston and Skegness in 2019 was 76.7% (the combined Reform (38.4%) and Conservative (33.4%) vote in 2024 was 71.8%) while the Labour vote in Streatham in 2019 was 54.8% (their nearest opponent was the Liberal Democrats).

@Nether Portal As someone from NQ, everyone claims to hate the south, but if it actually came down to a referendum, we’d probably still vote to remain just like Scotland did in 2014.

@Votante I believe only the people within the boundaries determined for the proposed state vote in the referendum. In 1967 there was a referendum held to separate New England from New South Wales which was narrowly defeated and in part that was due to the NSW Government including Newcastle in the proposed state.

@Nether Portal In this day and age I think a NQ state referendum would start out with strong support in theory, but would then erode away depending on party support/opposition, as well as the economic/political reality of the proposal being made clear. There’s also the possibility that something similar to the New England referendum could happen. Perhaps it’s a close result, but they draw the proposed boundary all the way down to Rockhampton or Gladstone and its defeat in those cities tips the balance in favour of remaining unified.

This is a ridiculous hypothetical and wildly off topic, but anyhow. The constitution states as follows:

“124. Formation of new States
A new State may be formed by separation of territory from a State, but only with the consent of the Parliament thereof, and a new State may be formed by the union of two or more States or parts of States, but only with the consent of the Parliaments of the States affected.”

The constitution of Queensland makes no reference to separation, partition or similar topics.

@scart I’m sayingv

LNP: 59
Labor: 26
Greens: 3
KAP: 3
Independents: 2

@real talk yes. In fact the act is set to expand soon takingnin a bit of nsw

Seats to look out for potential LNP losses. Most of which are very unlikely – if there’s a non linear swing I think it’s more likely to be concentrated with incumbents. But here goes:

Ipswich West: Once safe ALP seat, lost at by-election but then the by-election winner isn’t recontesting.
Clayfield: Small-l Liberal seat, Greens held federally and a 2nd tier Greens target (fully staffed booths and advertising but not the same door knocking as e.g. Cooper).
Moggill: Same as above but with a stronger LNP base that seems less… teal? And not much to work with from BCC results with a swing against Greens compared to 2020 (before EWB was elected)
Chatsworth, Everton: Liberal held seats in the Brisbane LGA identified by Labor as targets with popular local members. Some evidence of serious ALP campaigning in Chatsworth. Close to Green areas but limited influence.
Coomera: Big suburban growth and a small margin. The kind of seat Labor would try to win if they were on an upswing. Some evidence of serious Labor campaigning.
Burleigh: Retiring incumbent and one of the better spots for Labor on the Gold Coast if that’s an area where Miles is getting swing back, and I’ve seen Labor post on social media pictures of healthy volunteer presences here.
Currumbin: Same as above but with no retiring member.
Oodgeroo: Not a prominent target but surrounded by seats ALP is doing fine in and there are theories about Stoker’s effect on the vote (which I think were debunked?)

Those are the seats to watch if Miles is having any kind of night where he might hang on, and he’ll need at least one to convince indies and Katters his government isn’t a sinking ship. Some of them might be close enough to be in doubt but then overwhelmed by prepolls.

I haven’t watched live election coverage on TV in a whole but I think I’ll watch this one.

Ipswich west is certainly but would be considered a loss since it was a by election.
Coomera is an outlier since its got +35% electors. But should be an lnp retain due to overall swing

@BNJ on BCC results and even on federal results both Clayfield and Moggill would be still LNP seats. At the 2022 federal election Labor actually outpolled the Greens in the suburbs that make up Clayfield. East of Clayfield itself is solidly conservative suburbs like Ascot, Eagle Farm, Hamilton, Hendra, Pinkenba, etc.

Ipswich West back to alp
Yes
But I consider Labor will not win other seats the lnp holds pre election

If the global swing is small say 3% from alp to lnp
Then some of the guaranteed wins in areas like Keppel Mackay. And Rockhampton may not occur

@Mick Quinlivan you do realise that the swing won’t be uniform, right? The swings in Keppel and Mackay will be bigger than those in McConnel and South Brisbane.

Clearly he means that @NP; he’s implied that the swing in Keppel may not exceed the current margin, yet be larger than his so-called global swing of 3%.

NP
Of course I do.but if the swing is 3% +- 3% that is 0 to 6% Then a seat like Keppel on 5.6%. may be retained.

Possible Labor surprises:
McConnel – Grace Grace may hold off the Green challenge. I’ve downgraded the Greens and upgraded Labor’s prospects this week.
Ipswich West – Labor might regain as the by-election swing was an outlier and will slightly recorrect.

I expect Labor’s vote to be overestimated on election night. Outside of Covid times, prepolling and postals skewed heavily towards retirees. During Covid, more young and middle-aged people voted by post. Retirees who voted en masse for Labor during Covid will swing back to the LNP or other minor right-wing parties. If the polling is true and Labor did indeed narrow the gap and improve its voting intentions then there would be an even bigger gap between the ordinary vote and non-ordinary vote.

My Final Prediction which has come down from the start of the Campaign LNP 56, ALP 29, GRN 4, KAP 3 and IND 1

LNP lose Ipswich West to ALP

ALP lose to LNP Bundaberg, Nicklin, Hervey Bay, Caloundra, Barron River, Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra, Redlands, Aspley, Pumicestone, Cairns, Keppel, Redcliff, Mackay, Pine Rivers, Mansfield, Gaven, Springwood, Rockhampton and Capalaba

ALP lose to GRN Cooper and McConnell

KAP lose to LNP Mirani

Thought at start of campaign much larger LNP Majority as most people thought. Think ALP 29 Seats is minimum and can go up 1-5 Seats if late surge increases their election day result.

Well, I for one have enjoyed the intercourse between the pundits on this board. Thank you to Ben for providing a platform where a diverse range of people with a common interest can converge and discuss this election. I look forward to catching up on the comments on Sunday morning.

To everyone I’ve interacted with, whatever your political stripe, I wish you well and I wish you no ill will.

My predictions, for what they are worth, are as follows:

LNP 54-46, but the swing is inconsistent.

LNP gains – Aspley, Barron River, Bundaberg, Cairns, Caloundra, Hervey Bay, Keppel, Mackay, Mansfield, Mundingburra, Nicklin, Pine Rivers, Redcliffe, Redlands, Thuringowa, Townsville
Green gains – Cooper, McConnel
KAP gains – Mirani
IND gains – Rockhampton
(Ipswich West won by ALP; not counted as a gain v 2020 standings)

LNP – 49
ALP – 37
KAP – 4
GRN – 4
IND – 2

Probably wrong but let’s see.

@real talk
Fair selection which is plausible.
Think kap +2
Alp +5
Lnp -7
Using your projections
This would cause a hung parliament if no guesses held
But there would be nothing in it and a large number of marginal seats at the end

Looking through the pendulum here. I estimate 7 fairly certain lnp gains. After that it will become a seat by seat proposition with the possibility of the alp retaining seats and kap gaining seats.

Betting Markets still looking at Comfortable LNP Majority. If you really think ALP will form Government you can get $8. Some markets close once poll booths open at 8am but I know a site which has live betting when results are released. Not sure they will do it for Queensland Election. I know they did it for last Federal Election. Sorry for mentioning betting as some people do not like it but the odds on Labor on a two horse race look tempting.

@ Damian
The odds for a hung parliament look better.
I guess 50/50 .
You get approx 8/1 for alp and lnp minority so you can bet on both and still win as long as the lnp or Labor don’t get an absolute majority

I doubt KAP will Mundingburra and they won’t win Townsville, their vote percentages there last time were under 13% and I don’t see the KAP vote increasing much, especially since they’re the ones who made abortion an election issue (Labor and the LNP are both saying no changes but KAP want changes).

@ NP Agree they will finish 3rd in all 3 Townsville Seats and Elect a LNP candidate with ALP finishing 2nd in those seats. The only way they finish 2nd in the count is ONP pref leap them over the ALP as there will be a low GRN vote to pref ALP. Also think KAP will lose Mirani to LNP so 3 Total for KAP. People have talked up KAP before and they have never delivered.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-25/david-crisafulli-walks-back-crime-victim-number-election-promise/104517750

Impressive for Crisafulli to break an election promise before he’s been elected.

Also interesting to note the victimisation rate (which Dave now wants to be judged by) is decreasing; it seems hypocritical to slam the government on one set of data, and seek to be judged by your performance in another.

Yes after refusing to make clear his stand on abortion he has shifted his position on what he said initially. As explained in another post the same situation applies re crime.
This comes down to how credible the lnp is when their leader does this

The largest swings from ALP to the LNP will most likely be in:
1. Seats outside BCC mainly in neighbouring LGAs. Seats like Pumicestone and Redlands are gone. Ipswich, Woodridge, Waterford, Morayfield will swing hard but some of them have such high margins that they won’t flip.

2. Regional centres like Mackay, Keppel, Rockhampton and the three in Townsville. KAP could be the wild card in Cook and the Cairns seats and possibly in Thuringowa. They can split votes or soak up the swings from Labor.

I won’t say that swings on the Sunshine Coast will be big but Nicklin and Caloundra are gone for sure. It won’t require much to swing them. Given the already low margins and the Covid election, we knew that they’d be one-termers anyway.

@ Damian
Do you know if onp voters follow their htv?
Also how do preferences flow between onp and kap?

@Mick Quinlivan I think the ONP will have booth workers on all election polling places and probably had them at pre-poll in the 3 Townsville seats. I see they are running in every seat so that might stretch their resources. But in the 3 Townsville seats they have KAP before LNP with ALP and GRN last. I am not exactly sure what percent follow the htv cards probably over 50% but sort of knowing a ONP voter their preference would be similar to what they have on their htv. I know when they say Vote 1 ONP and number every box with your preference just over 50% goes to LNP but if they htv that preference the LNP before ALP then it is closer to 70%. But ONP have a wide variety of voters from both the left and right of the spectrum. Just look at Pauline she won Oxley a very safe ALP seat in 1996.

@Damian on the ballot paper Pauline Hanson was actually a Liberal but was disendorsed by the party under direction from John Howard himself.

@Votante I agree with the swing thing but I don’t think KAP will be good in the Cairns seats. They might poll well in Mulgrave but not the other two. Barron River will easily go LNP and will be LNP in 2028 too while Cairns will go LNP this time and likely flip back to Labor in 2028 unless Yolonde Entsch is popular.

Early bedtime for me since I’m waking up at 5:00am to watch the Matildas play Switzerland, so tomorrow is a big day for me. I’ll be at the LNP function and hopefully will meet David.

Correction: it’s at 4:00am, I was looking at the NSW time. So even earlier.

Good night @Nether Portal 😘 see you tomorrow

@NP Yes I know so they were voting for Pauline not the Liberal Party. Some might have not known she was disendorsed but most would of. Not sure if ever there has been a disendorsed member elected since. There might have been a few before Pauline. Disendorsed during the election campaign once nominations have closed that is.