Ben is joined by Andrew Messenger from the Guardian to discuss the final stretch of the Queensland election campaign. We spend most of our time going through the key seats in each region of the state, and the issues that have dominated the campaign.
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In deciding who is in government the cross bench needs to make their decision.
It is not a coalition nor seats in the ministry
Just confidence and supply
There has been an assumption that the lnp will win all 3 seats in Townsville now this is not the case.
Because the lnp has undermined Labor there so well with drops in alp primary of > 10% then it is Possible that kap wins at least 1 of the seats there
It would be funny if this was the seat previously held by the opposition leader.
The Katters cannot so neatly be classified.
Bob was quite happy to be part of the np till there was a falling out. They dislike the nats now but they aim to keep and expand their seats. The abortion stuff was about undermining the libs in their own interests.
A lnp landslide does not suit their aims more suitable is a hung parliament which has an even chance of happening.
@Nether Portal – on election night Rebecca White left the door open to fight out negotiations but she was rolled into rolling over by SDA party hacks into conceding the next day. The difference being that Rockliff would have first opportunity to form government (by convention) – in QLD the shoe is on the other foot.
It would be out of character for Miles to fight his way to not losing in the face of near certain defeat, only to give up at the hurdle of minority government negotiations, especially when he has the first right to test the confidence of the house. He could give the Greens absolutely nothing in negotiations and dare them to be the votes that topple his government, get Bolton, Strelow and the Katters on side, and continue to govern.
I don’t see Miles conceding until Crisafulli gets 47 or an iron clad agreement with the Katters.
@ BNJ
I would think it is best to do with Rebecca White to concede rather than form a Rainbow Coalition with KAP, Greens. If Labor fell two seats short then Bolton and Strelow will be ok. However, Labor should not be willing to grant a referendum on NQ statewood best to walk away. If Crisafaulli gets to 45 concede for Labor is the best bet. It is better to have a chaotic LNP state government as it will benefit Albanese. Having Chaos in Tasmania will help Labor retain Lyons federally.
Predictions for num er of seats?
The framing of NZ 2017 was “Labor NZ First coalition”, with Greens on the outer despite getting some ministries. Miles could do similar – a “Coalition” with the Katters who get ministries etc. with Greens visibly left out in the cold, both majors refusing to negotiate with them. Even if given absolutely nothing I think Greens would ultimately side with Labor (not even abstain) and their base would never go for supporting a no confidence motion.
Crisafulli getting 45 or 46 will probably be enough for Strelow and Bolton to feel they have no choice but to let Crisafulli govern, and avoid empowering Greens or Katters. Any less and it’s a street fight
@John
LNP: 53
Labor: 30
Greens: 4
KAP: 4
Independents: 2
It is scrapping the bottom of the barrels if Labor agrees to a vote to potentially break up the state and cause Chaos for Federal Labor. With a new state everything from Coat of arms to number of senators will change, it will be better for Labor not do something so stupid out of desperation.
I can see Labor treating QLD as a lost cause federally given they’re up against a leader from QLD. The only seats they won off LNP during the Newman years are Herbert and Longman which they lost again (Herbert is probably never coming back in the foreseeable future). State government is the big prize to play for.
Would an FNQ referendum be a disastrous thing to allow? I think media would report that it’s unlikely to succeed, with the natural tendency to vote no for referenda. LNP are wedged – the referendum has no chance if they don’t support a Yes vote, but if they support a Yes vote they can’t get mad at whatever state government allowed it to go ahead. There’d also be ways to confound it – for example, a simultaneous national vote on whether to admit NQ as a state, with it to only be a territory (with no guarantee of self government) if it votes to break away from QLD. Statehood for the ACT and NT could be thrown into the mix. When referendums get complicated, the tendency is to vote no.
Plus that’s not the only deal Katters could make.
It just doesn’t seem worth it for Miles to give up unless he’s resoundingly defeated.
Longman and Herbert were won in 2016 when Labor held QLD state government – I was referring to the residual influence. Would a federal election in the last days of the Newman government have resulted in a lot of gains for Labor? Don’t think so, the same way the early days of Newman (which happened after many of the cuts) didn’t stop Abbott from winning lots of QLD seats in 2013.
Disagree strongly with that. If Federal Labor wants to be a longer term government they need a better result in QLD. The only reason they won a bare majority last time with a bad result in QLD is that they did super well in WA. It is the reason why Federal Labor had to win Unorthodox seats like Higgins and Tangney last time. They need to win a seat Petrie, Bonner and Forde longer term, although i concede i dont seem them winning those 3 in 2025. A FNQ referendum could be a massive distraction and be Australia version of Brexit. Also Federal Labor will not be happy as it will create a very right leaning state especially in Senate election. It also be massive waste of taxpayer money.
Newman for the record is talked about like he was an utterly disastrous premier who lost like Bligh, but he almost won in 2015. I think his reputation, if he held on, would have resulted in a colossal defeat in the election after.
At any rate, Newman taking an early L didn’t stop Nicholls and Frecklington from being heavily attacked for association with Newman. Similarly Bligh surviving one term longer than everyone expected, and then being utterly crushed, didn’t stop Labor from coming back in 2015. So Miles probably isn’t going to listen to anyone who tells him that if he hangs on for dear life now Labor will be out of power for a generation the term after.
When it comes to 2PP, I don’t recall Weatherill in SA being called an illegitimate premier for the 2014-18 term. He clung to power by drawing in independents from notionally Liberal seats and even flipping a Liberal member. Same Labor faction as Miles.
Even Albo publicly begging Miles to concede (very unlikely) probably won’t be enough. It only ends when Crisafulli secures a majority support from the house.
By Sunday morning all these hypotheticals could be a waste of typing space. But it’s fun to think about.
Fnq state
Would have to be supported by the federal government whatever these people voted for
What would be the boundaries of fnq?
Any party that agrees to a referendum to break up the state is not fit to lead the state. Simple.
It’s not a realistic proposition.
@Mick Quinlivan that would very much depend on what is classified as North Queensland. Some definitions have the boundary at Burdekin, while others have it at the Whitsundays or Mackay or even as far south as Rockhampton and Gladstone.
If you look at a map of Queensland’s regions on Wikipedia, you’ll find that North Queensland extends from the Burdekin area out to Mount Isa while Far North Queensland extends from the Cassowary Coast up to the Torres Strait Islands right until the sea border with PNG.
The North Queensland Cowboys in the NRL (which is David Crisafulli’s favourite team) have a lot of supporters around Queensland and PNG (often people who wanted to support a Queensland but chose their team during the time when the Brisbane Broncos and the Gold Coast Titans weren’t very good, with the latter still typically being at the lower half of the table) mostly from Gladstone up to PNG.
Another possible boundary could be the Tropic of Capricorn, though what that would do is split the city of Rockhampton into two (the northern half would be in North Queensland while the southern half would be in Queensland, or “South Queensland”). However, while uncommon in Australia, in the US there are a few cities and towns that cross state lines (such as Kansas City, which is mostly in Missouri but partially in Kansas). There are some combined urban areas in Australia that cross state borders (e.g Gold Coast-Tweed Heads and Albury-Wodonga) but in the US there are plenty of them.