Podcast #133: Final week of the Queensland election

I’m not sure where I can comment this since the Queensland open thread is now locked but here are the federal and BCC results for state seats that I’ve worked out so far (excludes postals and for some seats it excludes prepolls if there are no PPVCs in that seat):

Federal results (TCP):
* Clayfield: 52.4% LNP vs Greens
* Cooper: 56.6% Greens vs LNP
* Maiwar: 57.2% Greens vs LNP
* McConnel: 60.2% Greens vs LNP
* Miller: 60.9% Labor vs LNP
* Moggill: 50.8% LNP vs Greens

Council results (TCP):
* Clayfield: 66.8% LNP vs Greens/Labor
* Cooper: 52.9% LNP vs Greens
* Maiwar: 51.7% LNP vs Greens
* McConnel: 53.0% LNP vs Greens
* Moggill: 64.3% LNP vs Greens

Before Christmas I should have a full set of comparisons (federal vs state vs local) for all of the inner-city seats. I will also do a federal vs state comparison for Cook in FNQ. Feel free to request any other seats for me to look at. Obviously safe seats like Traeger and Warrego will be obviously the same but city seats will be different (as will Cook).

Love your enthusiasm @NP, although I’m dubious about the value of comparing state v federal results, especially when Queensland has had a Labor government for all but five years since 1989, and has consistently favoured the Coalition since 1996 (2007 notwithstanding). I suspect your findings will confirm that voters vote on state issues and federal issues separately and are collectively nuanced enough to understand the difference.

@Real Talk it’s mostly to show that in the city voters are happy voting for moderate LNP candidates but not for the more conservative federal party. I’m aware that Queenslanders often vote differently on the federal and state level (I’m a Queenslander myself) but I still think it’s interesting. I’ve compared results in NSW before for teals to show that the NSW Liberals being more moderate helped them stop voters going to teals and that’s why the teals only just got a seat in NSW at a by-election where a controversial MP resigned (Pittwater, which I think will go back to the Liberals in 2027).

@Real Talk Completely agree. It’s even more pronounced when you overlay Local Government representation on top of it.

It’s not contraryism, it’s more a case of wanting to have a buck each way.

BREAKING: FINAL MAP OF PREDICTIONS OUT!

Link: https://jmp.sh/PU04B5hO

Seat totals:
* LNP: 67 (+32)
* Labor: 17 (–34)
* Greens: 4 (+2)
* KAP: 3 (–1)
* Independent: 2 (+1)
* One Nation: 0 (±0)

Percentage of seats held in Parliament:
* LNP: 72.0%
* Labor: 18.3%
* Greens: 4.3%
* KAP: 3.2%
* Independent: 2.2%
* One Nation: 0%

Note: seat changes are from the seat totals at the dissolution of Parliament (i.e Ipswich West is counted as an LNP seat and Mirani is counted as a KAP seat)

Facts about the next Parliament:

* Government: LNP
** Type of government: LNP majority
** Premier: David Crisafulli
** Deputy Premier: Jarrod Bleijie

* Opposition: Labor
** Opposition Leader: Cameron Dick
** Deputy Opposition Leader: Sharon Fentiman

* Crossbench parties: KAP, Greens, independents
** KAP leader: Robbie Katter
** Greens leader: None
** Independents: Sandy Bolton (Noosa), Margaret Stretlow (Rockhampton)

Facts about the election:

* TPP:
** LNP: 57%
** Labor: 43%

* Milestones:
** David Crisafulli becomes first Premier of Queensland with an Italian surname, third with a non-Anglo surname after Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen and Annastacia Palaszczuk
** Jarrod Bleijie becomes first Deputy Premier of Queensland with a Dutch(?) surname, second with a non-Anglo surname Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen
** Nigel Dalton (LNP) becomes the first MP from a party other than Labor to represent the seat of Mackay
** Queensland elects its second LNP government since the merger of the Liberal and National Parties in Queensland in 2008
** Steven Miles loses government and his own seat of Murrumba to the LNP’s Gary Fulton

Facts?

Don’t get too far ahead of yourself.

Agree Real Talk, that section should be called ‘Likely projections’ as it hasn’t happened yet (but probably high confidence, at least 70% of occurring after Saturday).

Np:
There is a swing back to Labor
Your projections were based on 58/42 or better
Now approx 53/47
With kap 4 to 5
Onp 0 to 1
Ind 2
Gr 2 to 4
As cross bench
There is increased likelihood of a hung parliament
I rate that as 50/50

If what I estimate is right then alp losses 10 to 20
Alp retain approx 35 to 38

I don’t trust that poll that much same as how I don’t trust the exit poll that much. Heaps of people have already voted.

Seats like Barron River where heaps of people prepoll will have already been decided before that poll came out.

The only thing that might’ve helped Labor is their scare campaign about abortion. Queensland Labor seems to think Australia is America so they’re tryna be the Democrats and campaign on social issues and identity politics. This is despite the fact that the LNP are far from Republicans, for example the Coalition supports free trade whereas many Republicans ever since Trump became their leader have supported protectionism and separatism. Similarly, the Freedom Caucus of the Republican Party promotes Trumpism, nationalism, right-wing populism and (dare I say) white identity politics. Crisafulli said he is pro-choice, Labor should welcome that he’s changed his mind and move on.

An effective leader would have quashed any talk of changing abortion laws, rather than let it drag on and derail their campaign. So be it. The inability to articulate a clear position will have changed some minds, although not enough to alter the ultimate outcome.

One can only hope Crisafulli is a more effective premier than campaigner. He’s had a shocker.

I will say this though. Early voting doesn’t necessarily equate to voters eagerly turfing out the government in a landslide. Plenty of people voted early in 2020 and look what happened then. The vast majority of people vote early because it’s simply convenient, not because of hyper-engagement with the political process.

At times I think people forget we in this online community are *not* representative of the world outside.

@Real Talk “he’s had a shocker”? No he hasn’t. He’s had a good campaign, probably the best for an LNP leader. He was leading Miles as preferred Premier by like 20 points at one point. The only people pulling him back are the Katters.

I understand you’re a hardcore Labor voter but you have to acknowledge that Crisafulli did well to lead the LNP out of the wilderness. He’s not my local MP (my local MP is Sam O’Connor, a frequent Sky After Dark target) but I know he’s been a good representative of his community and leader of the LNP.

He’s made it clear that he is not going to change the laws. Labor just are tryna make us like America by campaigning on stupid shit like this. In NSW there is consensus with Labor, Liberals and Nationals that abortion is up to the woman, her doctor and her counsellor. Yes the NSW Liberals and Nationals are notably quite moderate but still. Australia does not need culture wars.

Also, online communities like Reddit are notoriously leftist. Anyone who doesn’t vote Labor or Greens on there is downvoted and personally attacked. We spoke about this on the Pittwater thread a few weeks ago.

According to the ECQ over a million people have already voted. I doubt things are gonna change on election day.

Looks like the COVID early voting thing is sticking nationwide.

I live in nsw not Queensland so I am seeing things from afar. However it looked to me that Labor Waa gone the only argument was by how much.
Miles had a good campaign I think this has tightened this election.
It appeared to me earlier that the vote was 55/44 with s guaranteed lnp majority and the Labor loss of 20 seats.
This has changed alp loss of 10 to 15 seats 53/47 and an even chance of a hung parliament. It you look at the various resolve polls… they ranged from 58/42 55/45 to latest 53/47.

@Mick Quinlivan I’m in Queensland and also Resolve polls typically skew left.

Who said anything about Reddit? I was referring to this forum, and these participants – myself included – only.

The LNP started the campaign at 58-42, and now most polls are sitting at 54-46. Objectively, Crusafulli has lost the campaign but will win the election. For bluebloods like yourself that should still be a pretty good outcome.

A word of advice: don’t make global sweeping assumptions about others purely on their comments. You know nothing of my voting past. I’ve voted for Labor at state and federal level. I’ve voted for the LNP at state and federal level. I’m old enough to have voted for the Australian Democrats, and for the republic. I’ve proudly put One Nation last in every election bar one, and in that particular election I numbered every box below the line so Fraser Anning would get my last preference. At the end of the day I am but one voter and my opinion counts for practically naught, but to be described a ‘hardcore Labor voter’ when all I’ve done is to dare to express a view contrary to yours is an indictment on your political literacy.

Talking of literacy, I would venture to say your arguments are hardly elevated with grammar such as ‘tryna’ and ‘gonna’, but maybe that’s enough internet for me for one day.

Crisafulli has announced 6.8 billion in public service cuts – worse than Newmans 4 billion!

He has also said that he supports Choice, but is against Late Term Abortions. Presumably this means changing the limit down from 22 weeks to something else like 18 weeks. The current 22 week limit is really reasonable since it gives parents a week to decide if deformities are detected on the 21 week mid-trimester ultrasound.

With this news, there is no way the LNP 2PP is going to be above 56. I think it will fall between 51 and 54 LNP, with the seat count being something like 51 LNP, 34 Labor, 3 KAP, 3 GRN, 1 IND.

Newman 2.0 incoming!

Np: but I am comparing like with like resolve polls at different points in time
But 58/42:is not skewed left

@The Banana Republic I highly doubt it, Crisafulli is smart he knows that would make his government a one or two-term government.

@Mick Quinlivan yes, but Resolve polls are known to skew left. This is a general fact. It’s not just in Queensland either. The most reliable polls are Newspoll and Roy Morgan polls.

NP I agree with you but I am in Adelaide but have lived in Queensland for a few years in the late 2000’s. I still think it will be 57/43 for the LNP. Most people would have made up their mind before the campaign. Saw the debates thought it was 1 Miles 1 Crisafulli 1 Draw. Regions will be bad for Labor with Outer Brisbane also but Inner Brisbane will be same or slight swing to Labor. Will do my Seat Predictions Friday night after the Newspoll which I think will be pretty accurate. I do agree that Miles campaigning has been better because he is spending more money and at least coming up with polices either good or bad whereas Crisafulli has been very crime focused. I know it worked in NT but Queensland is different especially Inner Brisbane.

The danger for Miles is if – hard to see – he wins – is that he has promised to throw money around. If he wins, he does have to deliver and he has no money… serious problem there!

Betting Markets have hardly changed this week LNP 1.04-1.08 and ALP 8.00-10.00. I know people do not believe in them but they predicted 95% of the Labor seat gains in the recent UK election. I think after Newspoll there will be some movement if LNP vote under 55/45 and especially 53/47 which would involve Hung Parliament. AEF is showing 53.3-46.7 LNP using polling, demographics and betting Has LNP 50 ALP 34 GRN 3 KAP 3 IND 1 Unknown 2 so a very small LNP majority.

@Damian AEF is often left-skewed too (well at least it was for the 2023 NSW state election).

Aef is not so much skewed as just inaccurate
Maybe the the global figure is OK
But Cannot predict seats

@NP I noticed on your map you had Kurwongbah as an ALP hold, I’d say it’s an LNP gain but Bancrfot is an ALP hold

@Trump 24 is that not Morayfield I put as a Labor hold? If not then I meant Morayfield goes to Labor but Kurwongbah goes to the LNP.

Morayfield is the one above, I think Mary Ryan will retain Morayfield

Sorry Mark Ryan

@Trump 24 thanks for the correction. I agree Mark Ryan will likely hold on in Morayfield.

Newspoll
52.5 lnp
47.5 alp
Quoted on pollbludger

It will be a bigger win than that, I reckon its closer to 57-43 to the LNP

If I’m interpreting these polls from the perspective of an LNP supporter, my initial and overwhelming reaction is “ruh-roh”.

Preferred premier
Miles 45 Crisafulli 42
(previously was Crisafulli 46-39, a swing of 11 points)

This only serves to reinforce my hypothesis that Crisafulli has lost the battle but will win the war.

It’s almost like he’s doing a Campbell Newman speedrun; squandering any public goodwill he has *before* he takes office.

The LNP will still win this election; it is clear this is not a repeat of 2012 though.

So much for predictions of “no ALP seats north of Sandgate” etc.

*a swing of 10 points; as far as statistical errors go, still significantly smaller than the errors in some of the forecasts by the collective punditry here.

@Real Talk they will win Gladstone that’s about it north of there though. It will be worse than 2012 in Central and North Queensland but a fair bit better in Brisbane.

Come 2028 I expect the LNP to still sweep the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast and Townsville and they’ll win Barron River, Mackay and Mulgrave but Labor might get Cairns back.

I still think the LNP will have a plurality in Brisbane but it won’t be like 2012, whereas I think the LNP will get Mackay and Mulgrave which Labor held onto in 2012 (albeit marginally) and I think Margaret Stretlow will get Rockhampton on Labor preferences.

Keppel and Maryborough to also go LNP and stay with the LNP in 2028.

If history tell us anything, it’s that it is a futile activity to begin predicting seats four years in the future.

You may be right with your 2024 predictions, but a week is a long time in politics, let alone four years.

In the aftermath of 2012, we were looking at a generation of LNP government. I don’t need to remind anybody here how that played out.

Liberal minority paying $10 on sportsbet

Election night is going to be interesting. My prediction is the election day returns will be good for Miles and it may look like he’s going to hang on. Then prepoll will be brutal. Will be worth it to follow the numbers people who know what they’re talking about, not the pundits.

It’s going to be a very long night. I don’t think Miles will clearly lose enough seats early enough in the night to concede.

Ultimately I think Miles won’t lose many seats (to LNP) in SEQ, but he would still be swept out from losing enough seats elsewhere UNLESS KAP gain Townsville seats instead of LNP and Miles makes them a better offer. The spectre of 2012 is gone and it could end up being like SA 2014. Does Miles have the stomach to negotiate an NZ 2017 style coalition with Katters and Greens? He certainly hasn’t given up yet.

@Blue Not John Hell will freeze over before KAP formally works with Labor, let alone the Greens. You’d have to guarantee a North Queensland state referendum and even then I don’t think that would be enough to convince them. And the Katter’s are not at all immune to defeat, especially if they’re seen as too close to Labor. Just think back to the 2013 federal election.

Bob Katter was one of the MPs that backed PM Albanese so he could go to Japan before majority was confirmed. That was purely symbolic but shows what’s possible.

The Katters have a lot in common with NZ first. They’re conservative but very transactional and their populism includes left wing policies sometimes. There is a path if Miles has the stomach for it

I would think best for Labor to walk away from forming government with KAP and let them cause chaos for the LNP instead. If there is a NQ State referendum it maybe seen like the Voice referendum and cause a backlash and help Labor.

LNP majority on election night, but it won’t be as bad for Labor on election night so the majority might look only average on election night but after the election it’ll be bad when prepolls start to come in. Remember nearly half of the state has already voted.

Not a One Nation voter but I’ve been tagging along with the Pauline Hanson’s Please Explain cartoon on YouTube and I just watched the newest episode. One Nation are accusing the major parties of being the same and of pork barrelling and have predicted that One Nation will pick up seats, including a One Nation victory in the seat the party’s new state leader James Ashby is contesting, Keppel on the Capricorn Coast.

I think One Nation’s best result will be in Keppel, with their second-best being in Maryborough, while their worst will be in inner-city seats like Cooper, Greenslopes, Maiwar, McConnel, South Brisbane and Stafford which will all be won by progressives and Clayfield which will be won by the LNP’s Tim Nicholls.

I highly doubt the recent boost in polling for Labor will be enough for them to retain seats in Central and North Queensland, and yes my Arsenal jersey bet still stands. If any seats swing to Labor they’ll be in the inner-city. I think the poll boost for Labor will be mostly in Brisbane, especially in the inner suburbs.

Laine, you might be right on KAPs stance on the Greens but I disagree with you regarding their stance on Labor. The Katters are nothing if not opportunists – if Labor offer them significantly more of what they want, they’ll hold their nose and vote for Miles to be Premier. Particularly a North Queensland referendum if the LNP refuse to match such an offer, as that opportunity might never come around again.

As an aside, I wonder how KAP feel about the current LNP campaign in the north of “vote KAP, get Miles”. If the LNP don’t win a majority and end up having to depend on KAP, that campaign isn’t a great start to relations.

@Wilson well JLN supported the Liberals at the last Tasmanian state election, though to be fair Labor didn’t try in the campaign and just gave up when it was clear they didn’t have enough seats so the Liberals kinda got given government. The Tassie Liberals even made a fake website about JLN during the campaign.

The Katters are basically the love children of Jack McEwen and Vince Gair- socially conservative and economically interventionist. If they ever got hold of the levers of power at a state level they couldn’t do much on economics but sociallly … ? Though time might have passed them by.