Ben is joined by Andrew Messenger from the Guardian to discuss the final stretch of the Queensland election campaign. We spend most of our time going through the key seats in each region of the state, and the issues that have dominated the campaign.
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@John if the LNP are winning Waterford they’ll be winning Ipswich West too. I personally don’t think they’ll get get Waterford but I do have Ipswich West as a tossup for the first time since the by-election.
Courier Mail exit poll of 2000 voters. LNP 33.9% ALP 33.6%.
My predictions are pretty similar to Kieran’s, by coincidence, so I will copy his formatting.
Prediction:
LNP: 50
ALP: 36
GRN: 2
KAP: 3
IND: 2
LNP GAIN: Barron River, Bundaberg, Caloundra, Cook, Gaven, Hervey Bay, Keppel, Mackay, Mirani, Mulgrave, Mundingburra, Nicklin, Redcliffe, Redlands, Thuringowa, Townsville
ALP GAIN: Ipswich West
IND GAIN: Rockhampton
No gains for Greens or Katter.
It will be interesting if fewer people decided to prepoll compared to last time which was in the middle of a pandemic we saw that in the ACT more people may have wanted to enjoy a democracy sausage
Antony Green says 44% voted early whilst 38% voted early in 2020.
Thanks @votante in the ACT last week it was the opposite
@np yea I don’t think they will but ipswich west will likely go back to Labor in my opinion
@ john
Greens too high max of 4
Kap between 4 and 7
Ind 2
Ipswich West is a special case alp wins back
Kap could win Cook mulgrave one Townsville seat in add to yr 4…. but I think alp will keep Cook and Mulgrave and who knows about the Townsville seat.
Total either small lnp majority or Hung parliament
Maryborough a bellwether seat?
@Ron this should probably go on the live thread but maybe.