Ben is joined by Jasper Lindell from the Canberra Times to preview the upcoming Australian Capital Territory election, with a Labor-Greens government facing the voters after 23 years of Labor government and 16 years of the Greens in the balance of power.
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Great Podcast,
I really wished there was actual polling so more people can make predictions.
@Nimalan I agree there were only two minor polls in 2020 and none in 2024.
Ben really good discussion – Jasper was impressive in his cautious reading of the vibe – an apathetic or unenergised electorate is not what the Liberals need.
Agree Doug, the vibe or mood may be similar to the recent Tasmania election where there was a sense of frustration with the incumbent government, but the opposition was weak and couldn’t persuade voters to back them instead. As a result, the vote for third parties and independents surged which is what could also happen for the ACT.
@Yoh An except if Labor’s vote drops the same amount it did in Tassie then the Liberals would win the popular vote for the first time since 2012.
NP, I was thinking that whilst the Labor vote drops significantly, the Liberal vote only increases marginally by a few percent (also what happened for Tasmania) with most of the lost ALP vote going to independents and minor parties.
Then again, for the 2012 ACT election the Labor vote was static (it in fact increased marginally by less than 1%) and it was the Greens that lost vote to the Liberals. This is another scenario that could play out in 2024.
Also, the Tasmanian Liberals were coming off a high base of support (over 45% primary vote) unlike ACT Labor whose primary vote was only 38% at the last election. The max swing for ACT would probably be capped out at 10%, with a swing in the order of 7-8% being most likely.
@Yoh An so you’re predicting that the Liberals will have the highest primary vote? A swing against Labor of anything above –4% gets them below the Liberal primary.
Liberals did win the primary vote in 2012 – by 41 votes. That was during the low point of the Gillard government. It was also while other ALP state governments were dropping like flies (we may be in such a period now – though WA and SA Labor seem secure).
Agree that for a change of government here, you need people to be truly fed up and agitated, because people lazily showing up on their default voting patterns is a Labor landslide. One thing I noticed – the Liberal party are running “23 years is long enough” , not “23 years is too long”. A subtle difference but it’s more to say “give us a turn please” than “it’s time”. Makes me think more a more emphatic message wouldn’t have rung true.
Labor actually increased their vote in 2012 even if it was the low point of the Gillard government. i think why Libs did well was initial opposition to the stamp duty reforms among those had already bought homes and did not want rate rises.