Ben is joined by Jasper Lindell from the Canberra Times to preview the upcoming Australian Capital Territory election, with a Labor-Greens government facing the voters after 23 years of Labor government and 16 years of the Greens in the balance of power.
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Great Podcast,
I really wished there was actual polling so more people can make predictions.
@Nimalan I agree there were only two minor polls in 2020 and none in 2024.
Ben really good discussion – Jasper was impressive in his cautious reading of the vibe – an apathetic or unenergised electorate is not what the Liberals need.
Agree Doug, the vibe or mood may be similar to the recent Tasmania election where there was a sense of frustration with the incumbent government, but the opposition was weak and couldn’t persuade voters to back them instead. As a result, the vote for third parties and independents surged which is what could also happen for the ACT.
@Yoh An except if Labor’s vote drops the same amount it did in Tassie then the Liberals would win the popular vote for the first time since 2012.
NP, I was thinking that whilst the Labor vote drops significantly, the Liberal vote only increases marginally by a few percent (also what happened for Tasmania) with most of the lost ALP vote going to independents and minor parties.
Then again, for the 2012 ACT election the Labor vote was static (it in fact increased marginally by less than 1%) and it was the Greens that lost vote to the Liberals. This is another scenario that could play out in 2024.
Also, the Tasmanian Liberals were coming off a high base of support (over 45% primary vote) unlike ACT Labor whose primary vote was only 38% at the last election. The max swing for ACT would probably be capped out at 10%, with a swing in the order of 7-8% being most likely.
@Yoh An so you’re predicting that the Liberals will have the highest primary vote? A swing against Labor of anything above –4% gets them below the Liberal primary.
Liberals did win the primary vote in 2012 – by 41 votes. That was during the low point of the Gillard government. It was also while other ALP state governments were dropping like flies (we may be in such a period now – though WA and SA Labor seem secure).
Agree that for a change of government here, you need people to be truly fed up and agitated, because people lazily showing up on their default voting patterns is a Labor landslide. One thing I noticed – the Liberal party are running “23 years is long enough” , not “23 years is too long”. A subtle difference but it’s more to say “give us a turn please” than “it’s time”. Makes me think more a more emphatic message wouldn’t have rung true.
Labor actually increased their vote in 2012 even if it was the low point of the Gillard government. i think why Libs did well was initial opposition to the stamp duty reforms among those had already bought homes and did not want rate rises.
In looking at what might happen it is worth looking at there the parties stand with respect to the quota needed to get a seat in a given electorate. Labor is in the fortunate position that it could take moderate swings against it in every electorate without losing a seat. On the other hand in Gininderra and Brindabella small swings to it could result in them winning another two seats – one off the Liberals and the other off the Greens. I am not saying either will happen but looking at the Territory wide vote is not all that helpful. Different electorates may swing different ways.
I’m hearing anecdotally that there is a mood for change and that the Canberra Liberals might do better than expected. Do people feel there is any truth to this?
Luke
Lots of labor voters saying maybe the government is a bit tired – but don’t really think I can vote for the Liberals. Liberals have had a few problems in the campaign that has taken the edge of some people’s willingness to vote for them.
We won’t really know till the votes are counted – but I remember in 2020 there was a good deal of prognostication that the Liberals might have a big impact – it didn’t happen.
.
Here is my latest guesstimate of a possible outcome based on guessing what might happen starting from the 2020 outcomes. I have to say I keep changing my mind. Key assumptions are that with the exception of Gininderra the Independents won’t get enough of a primary vote to stay in the hunt and will hurt the Liberal vote more than the Labor and that the Greens will benefit from redistribution & demographic change in Kurrajong & from visibility of local members in Yerrabi & Murrumbidgee.
• Labor wins 11 seats – one seat off the Greens in Brindabella
• Greens lose 1 seat to go to 5 seats – Labor in Brindabella
• Liberals lose one seat to go to 8 seats
• Independents win 1 seat off the Liberals in Ginninderra
Doug – Agreed, minimal change is most likely. I expect a 3-4% drop in Labor’s primary vote, but as has been pointed out, this isn’t enough to cost them a seat anywhere. Meanwhile, Libs are at risk where there is a strong independent alternative (KUR, GIN, MUR), but may improve elsewhere (BRI, YER).
Brindabella – 5th seat is a real toss-up. Labor are favourites, but with a 3-4% swing, the Libs could win it, or the Greens could hold on.
Murrumbidgee – There is a chance of Fiona Carrick or Independents for Canberra getting up. Whether this is at the expense of Greens or Libs is tbd.
Kurrajong – IfC could do well but I doubt it will be enough. Status quo
Ginninderra – I think everyone sees the Libs’ 2nd seat is at risk. Family First or Belco are in a strong position, but with enough leakage it could go to Labor or the Greens.
Yerrabi – status quo
In summary…
ALP – 10 seats, no changes
LIB – 8 seats, +1 in Brindabella, but -1 in Murrumbidgee and Ginninderra
GRN – 5 seats, -1 in Brindabella
IND – 2 seats, +1 in Murrumbidgee and Ginninderra
Some interesting times in the nation’s capital. It seems like every party is doing their best to lose the election. Greens having problems with their candidates’ online histories, IfC struggling to define their position on potential coalitions, both the Libs and Labor failing to release policy costings. Elizabeth Lee has so far taken the cake for flipping the bird to a reporter after the latest leaders’ debate:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/17/act-liberal-leader-elizabeth-lee-gives-middle-finger-to-journalist
Perhaps the entire political class of the ACT are coordinating stunts in an attempt to get people interested in this election?