The Australian Electoral Commission today published the maps and data for the final boundaries for New South Wales for next year’s federal election, which makes it possible to calculate final margins and show maps of the new boundaries.
After the fold, the map shows the changes between the old boundaries, draft boundaries, and final boundaries.
My previous blog post clarified that the only changes were to Berowra, Blaxland, Bradfield, Dobell, Robertson and Watson. No other seat was changed. And so the changes between the draft and final boundaries are very minor.
I’ve also published estimates of the 2PP and primary vote per seat, and a table comparing the actual 2022 margin and the estimated 2022 margin for the new boundaries for each seat.
The changes of margins compared to my draft margin estimates are very minor. Labor’s margin in Blaxland drops by 0.05% and goes up 0.05% in Watson. It goes up by 0.04% in Dobell and drops 0.03% in Robertson.
I will do the same next Thursday for Victoria, and then publish a new pendulum for the new federal electorates. This will also allow me to start work on the final two thirds of my federal election guide, but with the Queensland and ACT elections coming up that will need to wait for November.
Estimates of two-candidate-preferred margins
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Banks | LIB 3.2% | LIB 2.6% |
| Barton | ALP 15.5% | ALP 12.0% |
| Bennelong | ALP 1.0% | LIB 0.1% |
| Berowra | LIB 9.8% | LIB 7.5% |
| Blaxland | ALP 14.9% | ALP 13.0% |
| Bradfield | LIB vs IND 4.2% | LIB 2.5% |
| Calare | NAT vs IND 9.7% | NAT vs IND 9.7% |
| Chifley | ALP 13.5% | ALP 13.6% |
| Cook | LIB 12.4% | LIB 11.7% |
| Cowper | NAT vs IND 2.3% | NAT vs IND 2.4% |
| Cunningham | ALP 14.7% | ALP 15.1% |
| Dobell | ALP 6.5% | ALP 6.6% |
| Eden-Monaro | ALP 8.2% | ALP 6.1% |
| Farrer | LIB 16.4% | LIB 16.4% |
| Fowler | IND vs ALP 1.6% | IND vs ALP 1.4% |
| Gilmore | ALP 0.2% | ALP 0.2% |
| Grayndler | ALP vs GRN 17.1% | ALP vs GRN 17.4% |
| Greenway | ALP 11.5% | ALP 8.0% |
| Hughes | LIB 7.0% | LIB 3.5% |
| Hume | LIB 7.7% | LIB 6.9% |
| Hunter | ALP 4.0% | ALP 4.8% |
| Kingsford Smith | ALP 14.5% | ALP 13.3% |
| Lindsay | LIB 6.3% | LIB 6.1% |
| Lyne | NAT 13.8% | NAT 13.8% |
| Macarthur | ALP 8.5% | ALP 9.8% |
| Mackellar | IND vs LIB 2.5% | IND vs LIB 3.3% |
| Macquarie | ALP 7.8% | ALP 6.3% |
| McMahon | ALP 9.5% | ALP 10.5% |
| Mitchell | LIB 10.7% | LIB 10.5% |
| New England | NAT 16.4% | NAT 15.2% |
| Newcastle | ALP 18.0% | ALP 17.9% |
| North Sydney (Abolished) | IND vs LIB 2.9% | |
| Page | NAT 10.7% | NAT 10.7% |
| Parkes | NAT 17.8% | NAT 18.1% |
| Parramatta | ALP 4.6% | ALP 3.7% |
| Paterson | ALP 3.3% | ALP 2.6% |
| Reid | ALP 5.2% | ALP 5.2% |
| Richmond | ALP 8.2% | ALP 8.2% |
| Riverina | NAT 14.8% | NAT 9.7% |
| Robertson | ALP 2.3% | ALP 2.2% |
| Shortland | ALP 5.8% | ALP 6.0% |
| Sydney | ALP vs GRN 16.7% | ALP vs GRN 16.5% |
| Warringah | IND vs LIB 11% | IND vs LIB 9.4% |
| Watson | ALP 15.1% | ALP 15.2% |
| Wentworth | IND vs LIB 4.2% | IND vs LIB 9.0% |
| Werriwa | ALP 5.8% | ALP 5.3% |
| Whitlam | ALP 10.1% | ALP 8.3% |
Estimates of vote share for final electoral boundaries
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LIB 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Banks | 47.4 | 52.6 | 35.8 | 44.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Barton | 62.0 | 38.0 | 48.0 | 29.4 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
| Bennelong | 49.9 | 50.1 | 32.1 | 40.7 | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Berowra | 42.5 | 57.5 | 23.9 | 47.2 | 14.9 | 4.6 |
| Blaxland | 63.0 | 37.0 | 51.5 | 27.2 | 6.8 | 1.0 |
| Bradfield | 43.8 | 56.2 | 17.7 | 43.7 | 8.6 | 25.3 |
| Calare | 34.5 | 65.5 | 15.1 | 47.7 | 4.6 | 20.4 |
| Chifley | 63.6 | 36.4 | 53.0 | 24.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Cook | 38.3 | 61.7 | 24.0 | 53.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 |
| Cowper | 40.5 | 59.5 | 14.0 | 39.5 | 5.9 | 26.2 |
| Cunningham | 65.1 | 34.9 | 41.2 | 24.5 | 20.7 | 0.0 |
| Dobell | 56.6 | 43.4 | 42.9 | 33.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Eden-Monaro | 56.1 | 43.9 | 38.5 | 34.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 |
| Farrer | 33.6 | 66.4 | 19.0 | 52.3 | 9.1 | 3.2 |
| Fowler | 55.9 | 44.1 | 36.6 | 17.6 | 4.9 | 28.3 |
| Gilmore | 50.2 | 49.8 | 35.9 | 42.0 | 10.2 | 4.2 |
| Grayndler | 76.7 | 23.3 | 52.7 | 17.8 | 21.0 | 1.5 |
| Greenway | 58.0 | 42.0 | 44.8 | 33.4 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| Hughes | 46.5 | 53.5 | 27.9 | 40.4 | 6.4 | 13.4 |
| Hume | 43.1 | 56.9 | 24.2 | 42.5 | 5.7 | 11.1 |
| Hunter | 54.8 | 45.2 | 39.4 | 27.3 | 8.8 | 6.7 |
| Kingsford Smith | 63.3 | 36.7 | 47.4 | 29.6 | 15.8 | 0.0 |
| Lindsay | 43.9 | 56.1 | 31.9 | 46.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Lyne | 36.2 | 63.8 | 21.5 | 43.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Macarthur | 59.8 | 40.2 | 46.9 | 29.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 |
| Mackellar | 42.1 | 57.9 | 8.4 | 40.5 | 6.3 | 38.5 |
| Macquarie | 56.3 | 43.7 | 41.8 | 35.9 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| McMahon | 60.5 | 39.5 | 48.5 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| Mitchell | 39.5 | 60.5 | 25.6 | 52.4 | 12.0 | 0.1 |
| New England | 34.8 | 65.2 | 19.9 | 50.8 | 7.5 | 10.3 |
| Newcastle | 67.9 | 32.1 | 44.1 | 24.4 | 20.0 | 0.0 |
| Page | 39.3 | 60.7 | 18.6 | 45.4 | 8.4 | 13.5 |
| Parkes | 31.9 | 68.1 | 19.5 | 49.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| Parramatta | 53.7 | 46.3 | 40.2 | 36.8 | 9.5 | 2.6 |
| Paterson | 52.6 | 47.4 | 40.1 | 37.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 |
| Reid | 55.2 | 44.8 | 41.6 | 37.9 | 9.4 | 3.1 |
| Richmond | 58.2 | 41.8 | 28.8 | 23.3 | 25.3 | 5.6 |
| Riverina | 40.3 | 59.7 | 24.9 | 43.9 | 6.7 | 3.7 |
| Robertson | 52.2 | 47.8 | 37.6 | 40.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Shortland | 56.0 | 44.0 | 40.2 | 31.8 | 9.9 | 2.7 |
| Sydney | 75.7 | 24.3 | 51.0 | 19.4 | 22.7 | 0.4 |
| Warringah | 49.3 | 50.7 | 12.0 | 34.3 | 7.9 | 39.8 |
| Watson | 65.2 | 34.8 | 54.1 | 26.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
| Wentworth | 48.8 | 51.2 | 17.7 | 37.5 | 10.7 | 29.3 |
| Werriwa | 55.3 | 44.7 | 39.1 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 |
| Whitlam | 58.3 | 41.7 | 42.4 | 29.8 | 10.4 | 1.5 |
The following seats will be liberal targets In 2025 and 2028.
2025
Bennelong
Dobell
Eden Monaro
Gilmore
Greenway
Hunter
Mackellar
Macquarie
Parramatta
Paterson
Reid
Richmond
Robertson
Shortland
Werriwa
Whitlam
Obviously they won’t win all of these but they will likely win Bennelong, Gilmore and Paterson and I rate their chances as fair in Parramatta, Robertson, Werriwa and Hunter. Richmond I think could be won if they can get a centrist liberal in there in addition to the nats candidate as justine elliots vote will likely deteriate to a point where the the 2cp is against the greens and the right candidate could draw the centrist vote with Labor out of the 2pp. All the others should at least become marginal enough to win back in 2028. In regards to the 3 teal seats they probably won’t win warrigal Wentworth or mackellar this time around but the teals support a Labor minority govt they should be able to topple then in 2028. The greens will be hoping to make inroads in Sydney and Grayndler and just have to wait until albo and plubersek retire.Labor will probably try and target Banks and Hughes but with incumbent members and the fact the libs are in opposition it shouldn’t be hard to hold them especially with a govt that has gone backwards since 2022.
re Banks this is a much better chance then it appears. The punchbowl area can vote 70% plus for
Labor
Yea but if they couldn’t win it I. 2022 why would they now it’s not like things have gotten better for them anywhere bar sa.
Re Bennelong.. official figures show lib 50.1% this is no sure result for the liberals. The major factor in this seat is .John Alexander’s retirement which allowed Labor to win
Hughes electorate has taken a massive cut to the margin however I’m doubtful in the current political environment Labor will be picking up any seats in NSW at the next federal election.
@mick your forgetting the Chinese voters who may come back and the teal voters from across the river.easy liberal gain. This is now Labor most marginal seat in that they in negative territory and he needs to win votes to hold the seat.
@fish I doubt he’ll win seats anywhere
The climate now will not be the same in late may 2025. There is nothing the lnp can win federally in Qld. There will potentially be extra seats to win in nsw. VIC and SA Dutton may be quite unpopular
But of course with a small absolute majority it is possible that may revert to a minority.
@Mick Quinlivan the Coalition could still gain Blair in Queensland, Lyons in Tassie and Lingiari in the NT, which I think they will. But other than that the Coalition gains will be in NSW and WA unless they somehow gain a seat or two in Victoria and/or SA.
Labor’s gains on the other hand (if there actually are any) will be in Victoria unless they somehow gain a seat or two in NSW. The Greens will likely gain Wills in Melbourne but that’s about it, unless they get up in Macnamara which I currently think Labor will retain. With Higgins gone that gets rid of another potential Greens gain in Melbourne.
@np they will. Get Lyons and lingiari. Blair will be lineball but I think Neumann may hang on. The coalition will definitely make inroads in Vic but if they start taking those seats in 2025 they’re probably I govt. Greens have prospects in macnamara richmond and wills. Labor probably won’t make any gains in 2025.
Wa at.worst.minus 2
Nothing nt
Lyons I am not convinced it will fall