The Australian Electoral Commission today published the maps and data for the final boundaries for New South Wales for next year’s federal election, which makes it possible to calculate final margins and show maps of the new boundaries.
After the fold, the map shows the changes between the old boundaries, draft boundaries, and final boundaries.
My previous blog post clarified that the only changes were to Berowra, Blaxland, Bradfield, Dobell, Robertson and Watson. No other seat was changed. And so the changes between the draft and final boundaries are very minor.
I’ve also published estimates of the 2PP and primary vote per seat, and a table comparing the actual 2022 margin and the estimated 2022 margin for the new boundaries for each seat.
The changes of margins compared to my draft margin estimates are very minor. Labor’s margin in Blaxland drops by 0.05% and goes up 0.05% in Watson. It goes up by 0.04% in Dobell and drops 0.03% in Robertson.
I will do the same next Thursday for Victoria, and then publish a new pendulum for the new federal electorates. This will also allow me to start work on the final two thirds of my federal election guide, but with the Queensland and ACT elections coming up that will need to wait for November.
Estimates of two-candidate-preferred margins
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Banks | LIB 3.2% | LIB 2.6% |
| Barton | ALP 15.5% | ALP 12.0% |
| Bennelong | ALP 1.0% | LIB 0.1% |
| Berowra | LIB 9.8% | LIB 7.5% |
| Blaxland | ALP 14.9% | ALP 13.0% |
| Bradfield | LIB vs IND 4.2% | LIB 2.5% |
| Calare | NAT vs IND 9.7% | NAT vs IND 9.7% |
| Chifley | ALP 13.5% | ALP 13.6% |
| Cook | LIB 12.4% | LIB 11.7% |
| Cowper | NAT vs IND 2.3% | NAT vs IND 2.4% |
| Cunningham | ALP 14.7% | ALP 15.1% |
| Dobell | ALP 6.5% | ALP 6.6% |
| Eden-Monaro | ALP 8.2% | ALP 6.1% |
| Farrer | LIB 16.4% | LIB 16.4% |
| Fowler | IND vs ALP 1.6% | IND vs ALP 1.4% |
| Gilmore | ALP 0.2% | ALP 0.2% |
| Grayndler | ALP vs GRN 17.1% | ALP vs GRN 17.4% |
| Greenway | ALP 11.5% | ALP 8.0% |
| Hughes | LIB 7.0% | LIB 3.5% |
| Hume | LIB 7.7% | LIB 6.9% |
| Hunter | ALP 4.0% | ALP 4.8% |
| Kingsford Smith | ALP 14.5% | ALP 13.3% |
| Lindsay | LIB 6.3% | LIB 6.1% |
| Lyne | NAT 13.8% | NAT 13.8% |
| Macarthur | ALP 8.5% | ALP 9.8% |
| Mackellar | IND vs LIB 2.5% | IND vs LIB 3.3% |
| Macquarie | ALP 7.8% | ALP 6.3% |
| McMahon | ALP 9.5% | ALP 10.5% |
| Mitchell | LIB 10.7% | LIB 10.5% |
| New England | NAT 16.4% | NAT 15.2% |
| Newcastle | ALP 18.0% | ALP 17.9% |
| North Sydney (Abolished) | IND vs LIB 2.9% | |
| Page | NAT 10.7% | NAT 10.7% |
| Parkes | NAT 17.8% | NAT 18.1% |
| Parramatta | ALP 4.6% | ALP 3.7% |
| Paterson | ALP 3.3% | ALP 2.6% |
| Reid | ALP 5.2% | ALP 5.2% |
| Richmond | ALP 8.2% | ALP 8.2% |
| Riverina | NAT 14.8% | NAT 9.7% |
| Robertson | ALP 2.3% | ALP 2.2% |
| Shortland | ALP 5.8% | ALP 6.0% |
| Sydney | ALP vs GRN 16.7% | ALP vs GRN 16.5% |
| Warringah | IND vs LIB 11% | IND vs LIB 9.4% |
| Watson | ALP 15.1% | ALP 15.2% |
| Wentworth | IND vs LIB 4.2% | IND vs LIB 9.0% |
| Werriwa | ALP 5.8% | ALP 5.3% |
| Whitlam | ALP 10.1% | ALP 8.3% |
Estimates of vote share for final electoral boundaries
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LIB 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Banks | 47.4 | 52.6 | 35.8 | 44.6 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Barton | 62.0 | 38.0 | 48.0 | 29.4 | 11.0 | 0.0 |
| Bennelong | 49.9 | 50.1 | 32.1 | 40.7 | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Berowra | 42.5 | 57.5 | 23.9 | 47.2 | 14.9 | 4.6 |
| Blaxland | 63.0 | 37.0 | 51.5 | 27.2 | 6.8 | 1.0 |
| Bradfield | 43.8 | 56.2 | 17.7 | 43.7 | 8.6 | 25.3 |
| Calare | 34.5 | 65.5 | 15.1 | 47.7 | 4.6 | 20.4 |
| Chifley | 63.6 | 36.4 | 53.0 | 24.6 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Cook | 38.3 | 61.7 | 24.0 | 53.8 | 9.4 | 3.7 |
| Cowper | 40.5 | 59.5 | 14.0 | 39.5 | 5.9 | 26.2 |
| Cunningham | 65.1 | 34.9 | 41.2 | 24.5 | 20.7 | 0.0 |
| Dobell | 56.6 | 43.4 | 42.9 | 33.7 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
| Eden-Monaro | 56.1 | 43.9 | 38.5 | 34.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 |
| Farrer | 33.6 | 66.4 | 19.0 | 52.3 | 9.1 | 3.2 |
| Fowler | 55.9 | 44.1 | 36.6 | 17.6 | 4.9 | 28.3 |
| Gilmore | 50.2 | 49.8 | 35.9 | 42.0 | 10.2 | 4.2 |
| Grayndler | 76.7 | 23.3 | 52.7 | 17.8 | 21.0 | 1.5 |
| Greenway | 58.0 | 42.0 | 44.8 | 33.4 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| Hughes | 46.5 | 53.5 | 27.9 | 40.4 | 6.4 | 13.4 |
| Hume | 43.1 | 56.9 | 24.2 | 42.5 | 5.7 | 11.1 |
| Hunter | 54.8 | 45.2 | 39.4 | 27.3 | 8.8 | 6.7 |
| Kingsford Smith | 63.3 | 36.7 | 47.4 | 29.6 | 15.8 | 0.0 |
| Lindsay | 43.9 | 56.1 | 31.9 | 46.4 | 8.0 | 0.0 |
| Lyne | 36.2 | 63.8 | 21.5 | 43.5 | 7.9 | 8.8 |
| Macarthur | 59.8 | 40.2 | 46.9 | 29.3 | 7.8 | 0.0 |
| Mackellar | 42.1 | 57.9 | 8.4 | 40.5 | 6.3 | 38.5 |
| Macquarie | 56.3 | 43.7 | 41.8 | 35.9 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| McMahon | 60.5 | 39.5 | 48.5 | 28.1 | 6.1 | 1.3 |
| Mitchell | 39.5 | 60.5 | 25.6 | 52.4 | 12.0 | 0.1 |
| New England | 34.8 | 65.2 | 19.9 | 50.8 | 7.5 | 10.3 |
| Newcastle | 67.9 | 32.1 | 44.1 | 24.4 | 20.0 | 0.0 |
| Page | 39.3 | 60.7 | 18.6 | 45.4 | 8.4 | 13.5 |
| Parkes | 31.9 | 68.1 | 19.5 | 49.0 | 4.7 | 2.4 |
| Parramatta | 53.7 | 46.3 | 40.2 | 36.8 | 9.5 | 2.6 |
| Paterson | 52.6 | 47.4 | 40.1 | 37.6 | 7.7 | 0.0 |
| Reid | 55.2 | 44.8 | 41.6 | 37.9 | 9.4 | 3.1 |
| Richmond | 58.2 | 41.8 | 28.8 | 23.3 | 25.3 | 5.6 |
| Riverina | 40.3 | 59.7 | 24.9 | 43.9 | 6.7 | 3.7 |
| Robertson | 52.2 | 47.8 | 37.6 | 40.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Shortland | 56.0 | 44.0 | 40.2 | 31.8 | 9.9 | 2.7 |
| Sydney | 75.7 | 24.3 | 51.0 | 19.4 | 22.7 | 0.4 |
| Warringah | 49.3 | 50.7 | 12.0 | 34.3 | 7.9 | 39.8 |
| Watson | 65.2 | 34.8 | 54.1 | 26.4 | 7.1 | 0.0 |
| Wentworth | 48.8 | 51.2 | 17.7 | 37.5 | 10.7 | 29.3 |
| Werriwa | 55.3 | 44.7 | 39.1 | 30.9 | 6.6 | 0.0 |
| Whitlam | 58.3 | 41.7 | 42.4 | 29.8 | 10.4 | 1.5 |
The following seats will be liberal targets In 2025 and 2028.
2025
Bennelong
Dobell
Eden Monaro
Gilmore
Greenway
Hunter
Mackellar
Macquarie
Parramatta
Paterson
Reid
Richmond
Robertson
Shortland
Werriwa
Whitlam
Obviously they won’t win all of these but they will likely win Bennelong, Gilmore and Paterson and I rate their chances as fair in Parramatta, Robertson, Werriwa and Hunter. Richmond I think could be won if they can get a centrist liberal in there in addition to the nats candidate as justine elliots vote will likely deteriate to a point where the the 2cp is against the greens and the right candidate could draw the centrist vote with Labor out of the 2pp. All the others should at least become marginal enough to win back in 2028. In regards to the 3 teal seats they probably won’t win warrigal Wentworth or mackellar this time around but the teals support a Labor minority govt they should be able to topple then in 2028. The greens will be hoping to make inroads in Sydney and Grayndler and just have to wait until albo and plubersek retire.Labor will probably try and target Banks and Hughes but with incumbent members and the fact the libs are in opposition it shouldn’t be hard to hold them especially with a govt that has gone backwards since 2022.
re Banks this is a much better chance then it appears. The punchbowl area can vote 70% plus for
Labor
Yea but if they couldn’t win it I. 2022 why would they now it’s not like things have gotten better for them anywhere bar sa.
Re Bennelong.. official figures show lib 50.1% this is no sure result for the liberals. The major factor in this seat is .John Alexander’s retirement which allowed Labor to win
Hughes electorate has taken a massive cut to the margin however I’m doubtful in the current political environment Labor will be picking up any seats in NSW at the next federal election.
@mick your forgetting the Chinese voters who may come back and the teal voters from across the river.easy liberal gain. This is now Labor most marginal seat in that they in negative territory and he needs to win votes to hold the seat.
@fish I doubt he’ll win seats anywhere
The climate now will not be the same in late may 2025. There is nothing the lnp can win federally in Qld. There will potentially be extra seats to win in nsw. VIC and SA Dutton may be quite unpopular
But of course with a small absolute majority it is possible that may revert to a minority.
@Mick Quinlivan the Coalition could still gain Blair in Queensland, Lyons in Tassie and Lingiari in the NT, which I think they will. But other than that the Coalition gains will be in NSW and WA unless they somehow gain a seat or two in Victoria and/or SA.
Labor’s gains on the other hand (if there actually are any) will be in Victoria unless they somehow gain a seat or two in NSW. The Greens will likely gain Wills in Melbourne but that’s about it, unless they get up in Macnamara which I currently think Labor will retain. With Higgins gone that gets rid of another potential Greens gain in Melbourne.
@np they will. Get Lyons and lingiari. Blair will be lineball but I think Neumann may hang on. The coalition will definitely make inroads in Vic but if they start taking those seats in 2025 they’re probably I govt. Greens have prospects in macnamara richmond and wills. Labor probably won’t make any gains in 2025.
Wa at.worst.minus 2
Nothing nt
Lyons I am not convinced it will fall
Gilmore, Bennelong, Robertson and Paterson are the low hanging fruit for the Libs. Parramatta a possibility.
The margins for Hughes and Banks are probably understated as they take in areas where the Libs would have put in zero resources and money and now they will.
Same possibly goes for Eden Monaro as Labor will put more effort into Goulburn.
Expect a big swing in Riverina as Tumut and Tumbarumba will swing hugely now that Labor will not spend $$$ there.
Mick
Bennelong was a one of the seats in 2022 where they had no candidate until 5 weeks before polling day. Not enough time to build a campaign and now Scott Yung is s good fit for the seat.
My tier list rating the new boundaries:
– S: Calare, Cunningham
– A: Farrer, Hume, Lindsay
– B: Banks, Blaxland, Bradfield, Dobell, Gilmore, Lyne, Mackellar, Newcastle, Page, Parkes, Reid, Richmond, Riverina, Robertson, Shortland, Warringah, Watson, Wentworth
– C: Bennelong, Cowper, Eden-Monaro, Fowler, Grayndler, Greenway, Hunter, Macarthur, Macquarie, Mitchell, New England, Paterson, Sydney, Werriwa, Whitlam
– D: Barton, Berowra, Chifley, Cook, Parramatta
– E: Kingsford-Smith, McMahon
– F: Hughes
I feel like I’ve been rather generous. Those bottom three really made everything else look better. I needed to put Hughes in a tier of its own.
@John
The Teal voters “from across the river” have not been forgotten in a 2PP. Every formal vote is counted. 70% of the Teal primary voters preferenced Labor across the old North Sydney, so that factor is not going to get the Liberal candidate home in Bennelong…
@Ben – can you clarify how you treated the North Sydney votes at Chatswood HS booth and the Chatswood PPVC? They were both joint booths with Bradfield however all the Bradfield votes would remain with Bradfield, whereas I do not think it is obvious what to do with the old North Sydney votes.
@high street even so thats when they were voting for a teal candidate now there is no teal and they have to choose between liberal and labor. the fact is still that on the current boundaries liberals are in front as its notionally liberal now. scott yung will help them out a lot with the chinese voters in bennelong that helped jerome get elected and i think most will come back to the liberals now that morrison is gone and they are not pursuing the nti china rhetoric
@ John – LNP not pushing the china rhetoric? You mind need to read a newspaper more often – lol!
Your first sentence contains no logic at all. They did choose between Labor and Liberal last time – that’s what the 2PP count measures. You might need to go back to “2PP school” with Rebekha Sharkie.
At east your second sentance has some logic to it – but as per my opening comment, I think its a bit tainted by rose coloured glasses.
A factor working in Labor’s favour – similar to have been pointed out by others above – is that Labor has never campaigned hard in Lane Cove and Chatswood (western side) Nor in Hunters Hill for that matter. A VERY large amount of teal IND voters choose that option because they do not believe Labor can win in their electorate, and worse they believe they are not even trying. This will change. The Liberal primary is very high in some of these suburbs new to Bennelong so they actually have a lot to lose – in North Sydney until 2022 it was “fat” – now its vital to the result.
@High Street, I assigned them to the SA1 that they came from.
For the three Chatswood booths in Bradfield (Chatswood, Chatswood West, Chatswood pre-poll), between 98.1% and 99% were kept in Bradfield and the remainder moved to Berowra.
Much messier for North Sydney, but this is the proportion moved to Bradfield for all the Chatswood booths in North Sydney, with the remainder put in Bennelong:
– Chatswood – 56.4%
– Chatswood East – 83.6%
– Chatswood pre-poll – 32.5%
– Chatswood South – 1.2%
– Chatswood West – 21.7%
Thanks Ben.
I don’t 100% understand your first statement as though I like election result stats, I’ve never dug in census stats and got familiar with SA1, etc. Are you saying that for each polling place, the AEC knows (tracks) and publishes the proportion of votes taken at that booth for each SA1? So the only real possible error arises from the degree to which voters from the various SA1’s voted in a different way (different parties) at the same polling place? (Because your method assumes each SA1 result matches the overall booth result?)
Yes the AEC publishes data on the number of people from each SA1 that voted at each booth (or other method such as postal voting).
Yes my method assumes that each SA1 gets the same proportion from the booth, so the only variation is because there are different mixes of booths at each SA1. This is slightly problematic because in the case of postal voting you’re effectively applying the same proportion seatwide even though we know (from the booths) that the voting patterns are not the same. For state and local elections where I don’t have SA1 data I use a different methodology that transfers special votes skewed in the same pattern as election day (so the more Labor-voting end of the seat gets more Labor special votes than the other end).
It does mean that if you look at a map of SA1 estimates (which I don’t publish) or, say, the estimates of vote by Victorian ward (which is in my guides) it tends to flatten out the results and make everything look similar within the one seat, but I don’t think it has a significant impact on the margins.
But yes we don’t actually know if all the voters from a particular booth are evenly distributed between the different SA1s in their catchment area. I’m sure in many cases they are not, but we don’t have that data. One of many reasons why redistribution margins are estimates and are not perfect (and why it’s not worth quibbling over whether Bennelong is 0.1% LIB or 0.1% ALP).
Must be 0.1 alp
wont matter either way Liberal gain in 2025
I thought after John Howard lost Bennelong there had to.be an improvement for Labor as the libs must field a weaker candidate than him. Then came John Alexander as Mp.. who happily kept a approx 7% margin.
I was forced to re-evaluate my opinion
I think the reason for Labor “s win was that Mr Alexander was not the lib.candidate. I think this absence of Mr Alexander is more important than the boundary change. I think it is not certain that the libs will Win here in 2025.
Thanks for the explanation of Sa1s. I gather from this there would be a minimal variation due to this methodology. Am I correct?
@mick tbh the libs should have tried to keep him around for one more term to hold it against the tide then he could retire and have a by election mid term once the polls rebounded. i think its the same reason they kept warren entsch around in lecihardt the new candidate is a pretty good fit for the seat i believe the other reason for the vote collaspse was the chinese vote whcih flipped on the libs which i believe will now recover hence my prediction of liberal gain
The Liberals will retain Banks. Even with the slight redistribution, as John mentioned, if Labor couldn’t win with a big nationwide swing last election where you had traditional Asian Liberal voters voting for Labor in Banks due to Labor running an Asian candidate, they aren’t likely to win at this one with a swing against them nationwide.
Coleman is a very hard worker and is known to do good for the community.
I would not be surprised if you saw Coleman even increase his margins at the next election due to the traditional Asian Liberal vote coming back.