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Another significant vote which will have broad implication is the Venezuelan referendum on term limits tomorrow.
Chavez, who is obviously agitating for a “Yes” vote, is leading by between 5-7 points in opinion polls. This is a stark turn around from the the 10-20 lead the “No” side had earlier this year.
Afghanistan is totally over rated in the article. None of the candidates have any particular ideology and are all corrupt opportunists. Statements like these:
“Mr. Karzai has successfully presided over the transition of the Afghan state from the devastated, pre-modern institution it was under the Taliban to the deeply troubled but largely democratic one it is today.”
Demonstrate a blinkered view of Afghanistan, representing the wishful view of the US. It’s particularly ironic considering that Karzai himself ruled as President for three years before becoming elected and before that was a member of the Taliban and later a monarchist. There were also a number of irregularities during the election, the same kind that you see in other “elections” in the region, and they will be replicated this election.
He’ll lose because he’s lost the backing of the US. Whoever has the backing of the US will lead Afghanistan, that’s the way it’s been since the Soviet invasion and that’s the way it’s been in Pakistan since the 50’s.
Japan is also overrated. Yes, it’s sort of a big deal if the LDP loses but the DJP’s foreign policy is virtually identical and domestically they’re both conservative, somewhat diminishing the chances of the election being “significant”.
Germany is much more fun and we talked about the various multi colour coalition’s earlier in the year. But again, I’m not sure how “significant” it would be considering the CDU and SPD are not that far apart, demonstrated by the fact they’re in government together…
Iran and Israel speak for themselves, but elections in Iran are unlikely to mean much other than show the mood the populace – if they aren’t rigged, since the Ayatollah isn’t up for election and he’s the most powerful figure in Iran.
Further to my first comment, Hugo Chavez has won the referendum that allows him to stand for re-election again when his term expires in 2012.
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