From media reports, it appears that Julia Gillard is set to be comfortably elected as Labor leader and Prime Minister tomorrow morning. The question then becomes: what does she do about the impending election?
She will surely be planning some changes of key policies, possibly dropping the Resources Super Profits Tax or toughening the government’s stance on asylum seekers. Having said that, she can’t exactly distance herself from the Rudd agenda, considering how deeply she has been involved.
On the surface, it seems an act of crazy-brave recklessness. Despite the media campaign against Rudd, he had only lost a single poll. On a two-party preferred vote Rudd was still on 52%. Bear in mind that Howard was behind in the polls before the 1998, 2001 and 2004 elections. It’s possible that this is just the jumpy nature of the modern Labor Party powerbrokers. There are, however, two behind-the-scenes factors that may have triggered this: Rudd’s leadership could have been as incompetent and isolated as David Marr painted it in his recent Quarterly Essay, and internal polling by unions and the ALP showing Rudd destined for defeat, and with Gillard able to beat Abbott.
You’d expect a surge in the polls for Gillard. She is very popular, and despite being integral to the government she doesn’t have Rudd’s baggage. After all, despite all of Rudd’s problems, Abbott has failed to dominate in the way that Latham and Rudd had done over Howard. A more popular Labor leader should be able to dominate.
Yet that could slip quickly. The charge of ‘unelected leader’ will hurt, particularly when people haven’t anticipated such a sudden transition in the way they would have with Paul Keating, Gordon Brown or even Peter Costello. In addition, it seems unclear that she can distinguish her party in terms of policies as she has to govern. Can she really resurrect the CPRS? Will she produce a completely new climate policy? What about refugees? It seems to me that, the longer she waits, the harder it will be to win the election. It’s not like she isn’t already known in the electorate, and her popularity will be hard to sustain at the head of a government which has already lost its shine.
In terms of election dates, it is difficult to hold an election between September 18 and October 9, due to school holidays, the AFL and NRL finals, and the timing of parliamentary sittings. If Gillard chooses to go later, it makes sense to go around October 16 or October 23, any later and you clash with the Victorian election.
We are one week away from Thursday, 1 July. After 1 July it is possible to call a half-senate election, along with an election of the House of Representatives. If Gillards wants to, she could call an election before Monday, 5 July, to be held on 7 August.
An election on 7 August would allow Gillard, after about ten days in office, to call a new election asking for a mandate from the voters. She would likely go to the polls well ahead of Tony Abbott, and her honeymoon could well last right through to election day.
It remains to be seen how she will move the ALP’s policy agenda, whether to the left or right. You would expect her to make a dent in the growing Greens vote, but it’s yet to be seen if her reputation as a supposed ‘left-wing’ candidate (despite the institutional support of the Labor Right), but we’ll wait to see if this will be enough to stave off the threat of Green gains in the House of Representatives and a swag of extra Senate seats.
Of course, there is another possible outcome, that could reflect another jurisdiction in Australia. Just over six months ago, another Labor leader gave a defiant speech before his execution, labelling his rival as a puppet of the factions. Despite personal popularity and a change in image, she failed to turn around her government’s popularity, and just five days ago lost the Penrith by-election in a massive landslide. Is it possible that Labor’s problems are deeper than Kevin Rudd, and his execution simply exposes the chaos of the government, allowing Tony Abbott to win the election. I don’t think that’s likely, but it reveals the massive risk Labor powerbrokers are taking in knocking off Rudd.
Good ananlysis Ben. I think some of the credit for this spill must go to the Greens for their stance on the ETS. It contributed to Rudd looking ineffective. Whether in the long term it will be good for Green policy (as distinct from Green support) is another matter. Hopefully it will. Hopefully our support won’t be hurt too much either.
Great work Ben – right up to the minute. A new leader may be the circuit-breaker Labor needs right now, but if they delay going to the poll, Gillard will quickly tarnish with the mistakes made by the kitchen-cabinet of which she was a part.
Ben,
often in leadership challenges, the third compromise candidate, the ‘cleanskin’ wins.
Odd the hard men of the right want to support a Left Prime Minister, and move the ALP to the right in policy.
Don’t be shocked if Gilliard ‘does a Hockey’ and someone from a right-wing union background like Combet gets up.
Though Keneally might be the model they are basing the challenge on.
and her honeymoon could well last right through to election day.
This could be the understatement of the spill. In history, there was another redhead who took the helm of a government in dissaray – and her reign ended up leading a golden age for an extraordinary length of time.
Just sayin’.
Hmm, I tend to think they will at least wait for one or two polls to show if there has been any public backlash over how this has all played out, and if there hasn’t been an immediate solid bounce, then leaving it a few months to give Gillard time to establish her own identity in the PM’s role may be the way they go.
If Gillard ‘moves to the right’, given her appearance as a more left-wing figure, that will do a lot of damage to her credibility. She’ll still beat Abbott though, any time the election is held.
Rudd would’ve beaten Abbott too. Even though the polls may have been weakening now, once an actual election campaign got underway, and people were actually confronted with the choice of Abbott as PM, support would’ve flowed back to Rudd.
Anyway, we shall see. Calling an immediate election to ask for a mandate makes sense, but somehow I think they’ll want to wait at least a few weeks to see how the chips fall.
I would suggest the likely result is an election in August (perhaps as late as 4th September). The ALP will not wait through the football finals until October as they will have to go back to Parliament (unless they called it in mid-August and had a long campaign, but that simply exposes Gillard and a party still slightly off-balance). So I feel comfortable looking to mid to late August for an election. That at least would be what I’d be planning for.
True, they may wait a few weeks, but she’d probably want to call the election before Parliament sits again.
ABC reports: “Kevin Rudd told caucus he did not want his Government to end up like New South Wales”
With Gillard leading the ALP into the election surly the Greens will be big losers!
Unless the Greens deal with the minor parties for preferences I doubt we will see a net gain in Green numbers in the Senate.
Damn good article Ben, an election sooner rather than later is best- from what she said this morning, that she will negotiate on the RSPT, cancel the tax ads and confirmed support for a carbon price is certianly good news on the policy front.
Just a little mistake in the 2nd last sentence of yours, It is as opposed to Is it. I was searching for the question mark..
The Poll Bludger are saying Tanner will not contest the next election. That can only improve the Green’s chances in Melbourne.
Stewart J Says: I would suggest the likely result is an election in August (perhaps as late as 4th September).
I agree… In fact the party is now in election mode. Tanner has stated that he has had his fairweel speach and Julia should be visiting the governor general anytime after the 5th July.
She will not want to fact the August session and will try to ride the honeymoom period (of a female Primeminster) during the campaign.
August 7th or 14th. Standby
Tony, What’s the DLP doing at the election? Specifically in QLD, SA, NSW, TAS, WA and VIC Senate.
comments that the Greens won’t make any gains in the Senate with Gillard as PM are wishful thinking.
A look at Anthony Green’s analysis of the Senate voting suggests why this will be the case.
Stephen says: Tony, What’s the DLP doing at the election? Specifically in QLD, SA, NSW, TAS, WA and VIC Senate
The DLP will be standing Senators Queensland (3) Victoria (4) SA (2) and WA (2)
Nominations for these states are closed and candidates in place.
We are still calling for candidates in Tasmanian and NSW.
In Queensland we have two candidates already campaigning full time in the Seats of Moreton and Petrie, We are hoping to stand between 5 and 10.
Victoria has both state and Federal elections this year and will be standing some very prominent candidates in both.
After many years we are starting to gain some media coverage and are in the process of forming Branches in Tasmanian and the ACT.
Should be a good election for us and there is alot of confidence in Victoria (both state and federal) and Queensland.
I don’t quite understand the reports of Gillard’s popularity. It doesn’t match up with what I have heard people saying. In my own family, I was planning to vote Labor at the next election, so were my two daughters, my sister and her husband and I have been told there employees. Now none of us are going to vote Labor. That’s quite a few people who planned to vote for them next election who will not do so now. I have employees who have said the same. People who have had a good opinion of Julia Gillard now do not. People I have spoken to are fairly unwilling to vote Liberal with Tony Abbott as leader and Philip Ruddock on the front bench but they are prepared to vote informally at the next election. It ‘s quite a number of people saying this. I don’t think this move has the broad support the media is claiming and in fact many people are feeling that the media has manipulated a lot of the events.
Comments are closed.