This is a very quick blog post as I am catching up on stuff that has been happening while moving house. On the very day that I moved house, nominations were announced for the ACT election.
I won’t be doing a lot on this specific candidate announcement, but the final lists of candidates have now been published on my election guide.
For some historical context, check out Antony’s blog post. I particularly found his chart of candidate numbers interesting. It’s not just that the raw number of candidates has spiked, but once you adjust for the size of the Assembly there was still a significant jump in candidates in 2016, and 2024 is only slightly more than that. The larger Assembly has expanded the field of candidates. While the barrier to entry for anyone outside the three Assembly parties is high, it could be breached this year.
I’ll return to the ACT closer to the election.
Greens Take ACT. My prediction
A fairer measure of candidate participation would be number of candidates per 1,000 enrolled voters. By this measure, the number of candidates has decreased in relative terms, compared to 2016. The voting age population has grown faster than the number of candidates.
Naturally, more but smaller electorates or more seats, thus lower quotas, would increase the number of candidates.
Mm I don’t see why per capita candidates makes sense. If you had a purely two-party system where Labor and Liberal stood but no-one else, then you’d have a consistent rate of 2 candidates per vacancy. We’re trying to measure how fragmented and diverse the range of candidates on the ballot are, and that is the case whether the territory has a population of 10,000 or 1 million.
@Aaron this is a possibility, the greens need at least 7 to form a Minority government and they currently have 6
It will be a definite Labor and greens govt retain. Can’t see the libs gaining power anytime soon.
My predictions Labor 9 liberals 8 green 7 +Carrick.
Can’t see the greens winning govt in minority at least this time around. Maybe next time. If they were both to get say 8 or 6 seats who would be the big spoon and who the little
Greens will have had a very good evening if they retain their current six seats. They currently have 24% of the seats on 13% of the vote. To retain all their current seats should have them popping the champagne.
I will be back in Australia a few days before this election, and one thing I need to do in that time is vote in Queensland (I’ll be voting early).
NP, are you in a key seat if I may ask? It’s annoying living in safe seats where the MP takes their positions for granted
Much how Labor has in the ACT, and I am confident their spell in power will end in 2 weeks.
@Daniel T I live in the seat of Bonney held by moderate LNP member Sam O’Connor. It is a safe LNP seat that is not at risk of falling. The LNP actually did better on the state level at the 2020 state election in this area than they did on the federal level at both the 2022 federal election and the 2023 Fadden by-election.
Also, do you think the Liberals will win power in the ACT? What are your predictions for seat totals?
NP, I did say on one of the seat threads, I think Lib either 12 or 13, Greens with 6 or 7, and Labor with 5 or 6, I think there is a chance Labor narrowly is behind the Greens in seats. Independents could win 0 or 1.
Non-hinge seats: Labor 10, Liberals 8, Greens 2
Hinge seat as Anthony Green describes them in each electorate is the key to the result:
Brindabella – Held by Greens – most likely labor, possibly Liberal, less likely retained by Greens
Murrumbidgee: Greens – expect to hold this (Independent Carrick is an outside chance but requires a big drop in the Liberal vote)
Yerrabi – held by Greens – expect them to hold
Kurrajong – Greens – expect the Greens to hold this an independents cutting into the Liberal vote
Ginninderra – high seat here is the second Liberal seat which is vulnerable to both independents & labor
I forget where I found the information, but someone made the observation that the ACT Liberals do better when there are conservative independents voted in.
In this context, the disendorsement of Elizabeth Kikkert is a high-stakes gamble. I can’t comment on internal Liberal Party politics, but maybe the conservative side of politics will actually do better if the conservative wing of the Liberal Party is outside the tent, so to speak.
There are not enough conservative Canberrans to win three seats anywhere in the ACT, but there could be enough votes to get two moderate Liberal members over the line, as well as one conservative independent candidate.
It has been interesting to watch the comments online and the like in various settings for the past 18 months. Even in non-political posts, the shift in mood against the current ACT government has been noteworthy. There is a lot of “Not Happy, Jan” sentiment out there.
And the wildcard is the outer suburbs full of recent migrants who don’t necessarily have (a) much idea of which level of government is responsible for what, and (b) any longstanding attachment to any particular party.
It is some of these families chasing the Australian dream who are selling their homes at present while struggling to pay the bills. While that’s nothing to do with the ACT Government, it does mean that they may be more engaged – and annoyed- than they otherwise would be.
This is the time. If the Liberals are to win back government in the ACT the time is now.
Canberra needs change. 20 years is too long in government unless you’re an excellent leader (which is why I would’ve still fully backed John Howard’s Coalition in 2007, he was a good leader who could appeal to everyday Aussies, but of course I couldn’t vote in 2007).
Without any polling all we have to go on in the ACT is the vibe – any of us commenting on what the vibe is telling us is largely guess work – while there is a feeling that the ACT Government needs a change – what labor voters then go on to say is they don’t trust the Liberals – the developments with liberal candidates in Ginninderra last week will not encourage discontented labor voters over the line to voting liberal. The other issue is that demographic shifts are not in the Liberals favour in Kurrajong. I encourage everyone to have a close look at the votes in 2020 in Gininderra & Murrumbidgee – there were swings to independents but almost completely at the expense of the Liberals.