The maps and data for the final WA federal redistribution were released on Tuesday this last week but unfortunately I was busy at the time packing up to move house the next day. I have now had a chance to update the analysis I published when the drafts were released.
The announcement in early September revealed that six of the sixteen new electorates were modified from the draft to the final version, and those changes all appear to be quite minor.
To one decimal place, there was no change in Cowan, Forrest or Hasluck. The Liberal margin in Canning increased by 0.1%, while Labor’s margin in Fremantle increased by 0.2% and their margin in Tangney was cut by 0.2%.
This is not particularly exciting but I’m including it in full as I’ll need these estimates for my federal election guide which I plan to finish after the Queensland state election.
After the fold I’ve published a map, a table of my margin estimates, and a table of my 2PP and primary vote estimates. Enjoy!
This map shows the 2022 boundaries, the draft 2025 boundaries and the final 2025 boundaries. You can toggle each layer on and off. You can also toggle on each layer’s seat names as a separate layer.
Estimates of two-candidate-preferred margins
| Seat | Old margin | New margin |
| Brand | ALP 16.7% | ALP 17.1% |
| Bullwinkel (new) | ALP 3.3% | |
| Burt | ALP 15.2% | ALP 13.3% |
| Canning | LIB 3.6% | LIB 1.2% |
| Cowan | ALP 10.8% | ALP 9.9% |
| Curtin | IND vs LIB 1.3% | IND vs LIB 1.3% |
| Durack | LIB 4.3% | LIB 4.7% |
| Forrest | LIB 4.3% | LIB 4.2% |
| Fremantle | ALP 16.9% | ALP 16.9% |
| Hasluck | ALP 6% | ALP 10.1% |
| Moore | LIB 0.7% | LIB 0.9% |
| O’Connor | LIB 7% | LIB 6.7% |
| Pearce | ALP 9% | ALP 8.8% |
| Perth | ALP 14.8% | ALP 14.4% |
| Swan | ALP 8.8% | ALP 9.4% |
| Tangney | ALP 2.4% | ALP 2.8% |
Estimates of vote share for final electoral boundaries
| Seat | ALP 2PP | LIB 2PP | ALP prim | LNP prim | GRN prim | IND prim |
| Brand | 67.1 | 32.9 | 50.7 | 21.8 | 11.3 | 0.0 |
| Bullwinkel | 53.3 | 46.7 | 36.4 | 35.74 | 11.3 | 1.8 |
| Burt | 63.3 | 36.7 | 49.8 | 24.78 | 9.5 | 0.2 |
| Canning | 48.8 | 51.2 | 35.0 | 41.56 | 8.3 | 1.6 |
| Cowan | 59.9 | 40.1 | 45.8 | 30.97 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Curtin | 44.4 | 55.6 | 13.8 | 41.36 | 10.4 | 29.7 |
| Durack | 45.3 | 54.7 | 28.8 | 44.84 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| Forrest | 45.8 | 54.2 | 27.6 | 43.07 | 13.5 | 0.0 |
| Fremantle | 66.9 | 33.1 | 44.1 | 24.15 | 18.0 | 0.0 |
| Hasluck | 60.1 | 39.9 | 43.7 | 30.13 | 11.4 | 2.1 |
| Moore | 49.1 | 50.9 | 31.9 | 41.81 | 14.1 | 1.3 |
| O’Connor | 43.3 | 56.7 | 26.7 | 44.5 | 10.9 | 0.0 |
| Pearce | 58.8 | 41.2 | 42.4 | 30.12 | 11.2 | 0.0 |
| Perth | 64.4 | 35.6 | 39.1 | 27.21 | 22.0 | 0.0 |
| Swan | 59.4 | 40.6 | 40.0 | 31.64 | 15.1 | 0.0 |
| Tangney | 52.8 | 47.2 | 38.1 | 39.58 | 12.4 | 0.0 |
On these margins bullwinkle and tangey will almost certainly be lost.. cowan hasluck Pearce and Swan to be either marginal Labor or in play at best.
I’m also gonna say Curtin as a liberal gain. By 2028 some of those seats could fall due to an ageing Labor state govt
Curtin is a liberal seat of the “small l” kind. A Dutton led LNP is not appealing to most voters there so doubt Chaney is going to lose it this election.
Tangney will probably be a Labor loss hard to see how they can hold it on that margin. Bullwinkel is a weird city/wheatbelt hybrid seat that I suspect will be picked up by the WA Nats.
@malcolm polling out of Curtin is favouring the libs support bottomed out under Morrison and big donors that deserted the party in 2022 are reportedly coming back to the party.. it also caused chancy to.backflip on her support for the live export ban.
I suspect the state election is going to deliver interesting outcomes with Independents appearing on the scene, further eroding the hold of the tired duopoly with little differentiating between them.
Not sure why the Libs couldnt preselect a woman to take on Kate chaney in curtin, their chances would be much higher that way
Beca7se liberals have a democratic vote (mostly) at the branch level to choose who they want to contest the seat. The curtain branch chose their candidate based on who they wanted. Not if they had a penis or not.
@malcom on bullwinkle yes I agree I think the combined lib nat vote will get up. Although she may not be as popular in Perth as she is in Central wheatbelt.
Not a certain +3 for the libs. . This is based on the assumption that the non liberal vote will drop greater than 3%. Tangney has most times been a ‘reliable’ liberal seat. Bullwinkel is hybrid… the Avon Valley is the least anti.labor part of Central wheatbelt. It is Possible that the Urban area of this seat moves towards Labor. Curtin there is a different dynamic involved. I picked in Victoria that seats with a + 3% margin remained and this was the case in Vic at the state level
@mick but Vic didn’t have a larger then usual swing in 2018. Plus the vis libs are totally incompetent and there were a a few factors in play in 2022 all of which are now gone.i. predicting a 7-8% retur to the libs in wa in 2025. At a state level probly 15%
@John true but i think its time to move towards community preselections as branches arent representative of voters
Then theyd have a much better chance especially in more moderate seats, a lot of the preselections for this upcoming election have been very poor
@dragons yes and how would a community preselection work exactly
@john could be a poll or community meeting but everyone in the electorate can take part? its probably difficult but its happened before i think the nationals have tried it in a few seats where they dont have enough members
@dragons yea well you’d get people who’d never vote liberals regardless picking candidates that nooone will vote for. That’s just like asking democrats to pick the republican nominee even though they don’t have any intention of voting for them at a general election
And it’s not like Labor do a rank and file preselection either it’s basically who is best connected to the unions and other vested interests
@ john… there is s liberal party faction in wa..called the clan. As far as I know they share similar characteristics to the vic liberals. As much as I hate to admit it Julie Bishop was a good operator and her influence is now no longer
WHAT A GRAND FINAL! AFTER 21 YEARS, THE BRISBANE LIONS ARE PREMIERS!
As for WA, @Mick Quinlivan “The Clan” no longer exists.
Np Sydney just sucked
@John true, Sydney played pretty bad except in the first quarter.
These boundaries benefit Labor, however while there are more Labor leaning seats than previous boundaries, they aren’t as Ruby red as they were previously, meaning if the Libs were going for a WA landslide federally like in 2010 or 2013, they could sweep all but 1 or 2 seats easily.
I mentioned elsewhere that Bullwinkel’s Labor margin is misleading. It was carved out of Swan and Hasluck – both target Labor seats in 2022, and also Burt – Matt Keogh’s strong personal vote. It also has very rural parts.
@Daniel T they only favour Labor because last time Labor did really well in WA. Bullwinkel should be a Liberal seat post-2025.
Also, @John, another big game coming up in the EPL: Man U vs Spurs. I’m tipping Spurs to win, Man United have sucked for the past few years.