NSW councils – end of post-count

As of this morning, we have almost reached the end of the NSW council election count. It appears that all election day and pre-poll booths have been fully data entered, and they are just waiting for one more day of postal and declaration votes to be added.

The Electoral Commission will be “pushing the button” to distribute preferences and determine winners over the course of Monday and Tuesday, according to these schedules for mayor and councillor. The final button pushes are scheduled for 4pm on Tuesday.

This blog post is a follow-up to my previous post-count post. I have just listed each ward that wasn’t previously called in the 26 big partisan councils.

I analysed 40 contests for this post, and in 10 of them I have been able to call the final seat. I’ve also called a seat in another ward where the final seat is still in play.

This leaves at this point 31 undecided seats in 30 contests in 20 councils. I’ll do another blog post for Monday and Tuesday as we get the final results, and later that week will start doing some other analysis on the final results, although I will need to postpone some of the NSW councils analysis until I have time to compile my full dataset after the October elections and the federal guide is written.

Bayside – ALP 6, LIB 5, PBAY 1, IND 1, Undecided 2

• Ward 2 – Greens 0.64, Hollink 0.60, Peaceful Bayside 0.43, Labor 0.30. Greens favourite.
• Ward 3 – Greens 0.67, Peaceful Bayside 0.65, Tsounis 0.34, Others 0.34. Greens have a slim lead but Peaceful Bayside has a good chance.
• Ward 4 – Barlow 0.69, Greens 0.48, Labor 0.40, Peaceful Bayside 0.38. Called for Liz Barlow.

Blacktown – ALP 8, LIB 6, Undecided 1

• Ward 2 – Greens 0.68, Liberal 0.68, Labor 0.64. Greens currently lead Liberal by 70 votes, and Labor by 433 votes. If you were to assume that all votes were cast above the line and no more declaration votes were counted, then Labor is knocked out and their preferences will decide the race. But some votes may be yet to be counted, and 8.5% of all votes have been cast below-the-line for candidates who won’t be one of the three contenders for the final seat, and thus may not remain loyal to their party. This may be the closest race I’m tracking.

Camden – ALP 3, LBT 2, LIB 1, IND 2, Undecided 1

• North Ward – Suri 1.16, ALP 0.99, LBT 0.85. The Libertarian Party already won one seat but won’t win a second seat. I am calling the three seats for Suri, Labor and Libertarian.
• South Ward – Campbell 0.79, Cagney 0.70, Sillato 0.29, Libertarian 0.16, Labor 0.06. Campbell is the favourite but very much in play.

Campbelltown – 6 ALP, 3 CFTI, 2 CVA, 1 GRN, 1 IND, 1 SUS, 1 Undecided

The second Greens candidate leads the second Sustainable Australia candidate 0.72 to 0.66 quotas, with Labor on 0.34 and Chand on 0.18. It’s very close although I think the Greens have the edge.

Canterbury-Bankstown – ALP 7, LIB 3, OLC 1, IND 1, Undecided 3

• Bass Hill – Community Voice 0.75, Libertarian 0.73, Saifo 0.32, Labor 0.20. Very close race.
• Canterbury – Greens 0.69, Labor 0.57, Barakat 0.30, Others 0.44. Greens leading but could be beaten.
• Roselands – Labor 0.47, Greens 0.40, Libertarian 0.38, Liberal 0.28. This one is close. I don’t think the Greens will do well on preferences if they end up head-to-head with Labor. On the other hand, if the Libertarian gets ahead of the Greens, then the Greens preferences should help Labor. I think Labor are favourites. This seat would give Labor a council majority.

Central Coast – ALP 5, LIB 4, McKinna 2, Undecided 4

• Budgewoi – with two seats left uncalled, Eaton leads on 0.77 with McKenna-affiliated Mouland on 0.69 and the Greens on 0.63. It’s likely the two independents will win.
• Gosford West – Smith 0.49, Bellamy 0.45, Brooks 0.44, Abou-Chedid 0.38. This race is wide open.
• The Entrance – Lamont 0.48, Liberal 0.45, Animal Justice 0.43, Brownlee 0.38. This race is also wide open.

Cumberland – ALP 5, LIB 4, OLC 3, IND 2, GRN 1

• Regents Park – Liberal 0.74, Quah 0.53, Labor 0.45. Quah can’t chase down this gap. The Liberal has won their fourth seat.

Fairfield – Carbone-Le 10, ALP 2, IND 1

Georges River – ALP 6, GRRR 4, LIB 3, IND 1, Undecided 1

• Kogarah Bay – GRRRP 0.72, Labor 0.62, Kogarah Residents Association 0.26, Liberal 0.26, Libertarian 0.14. I think GRRRP has probably won this seat but Labor has a small chance.
• Mortdale – Labor 0.89, GRRRP 0.75, Stojkov 0.21, Greens 0.13. I’m prepared to call the third Mortdale seat for the second Labor candidate.

Hornsby – LIB 5, GRN 2, ALP 1, IND 1, Undecided 1

• C Ward – Labor 0.84, Greens 0.81, Caswell 0.25, Liberal 0.06. This is super close. Even if a lot of preferences exhaust, Caswell has more than enough to be decisive.

Inner West – ALP 6, GRN 5, LIB 2, IND 1, Undecided 1

• Ashfield – Liberal 0.87, Labor 0.71, Greens 0.42. Labor needs 69% of Greens preferences if none exhaust. If the exhaust rate creeps up to 30% then Labor would need almost 100%. While I expect Greens preferences to flow strongly to Labor, I think enough will exhaust to stop Labor from winning. I’m calling this seat for the Liberals.
• Stanmore – Labor 0.73, Greens 0.71, Liberal 0.56. There’s no question of this seat being called, it’s extremely close. Liberal preferences in this area are unpredictable but there’s no question that enough will flow to be decisive.

Lake Macquarie – ALP 6, LIB 3, LMI 3, Undecided 1

• West – Swinsburg 0.42, Dawson 0.36, Our Local Community 0.35, Greens 0.34, Labor 0.30, Lake Mac Independents 0.26. Super close and preferences could make a difference.

Liverpool – LIB 5, ALP 4, Undecided 2

• North – Liberal 0.55, Harle (LCIT) 0.52, Our Local Community 0.46, Libertarian 0.32, Estephen 0.19. Remains very close. I don’t think OLC can catch up, but Liberal and Harle are in play. A Liberal win would give the party a majority.
• South – Our Local Community – 0.56, Libertarian 0.46, Liberal 0.41, Moore (LCIT) – 0.31. Very close.

Mid-Coast – IND 5, LBT 3, ALP 2, GRN 1

Newcastle – ALP 4, LIB 2, GRN 2, OUN 3, Undecided 2

• Lord Mayor – Kerridge has 34.5% of the primary vote, with Nelmes (ALP) on on 31.9%. While I haven’t seen any official preference flows, the scrutineers are clearly saying that Kerridge has won. Indeed Nelmes has conceded. So I’m calling this for Kerridge.
• Ward 2 – Greens 0.91, Our Newcastle 0.86, Labor 0.22, Liberal 0.02. Greens are leading and are almost certainly winning. Our Newcastle would need strong preference flows and low exhaust rates to win.
• Ward 4 – Labor 0.72, Our Newcastle 0.70, Greens 0.55. Greens preferences on their how-to-votes favoured Labor, but this is hard to predict since Greens voters can be independently-minded.

Northern Beaches – YNB 7, IND 3, GRN 3, GFM 1, Undecided 1

• Frenchs Forest – Greens 1.06, Your Northern Beaches 0.94. There are no preferences to flow and very few votes yet to be counted, so I’m calling this seat for the Greens.
• Manly – Greens 0.68, Your Northern Beaches 0.46, Good For Manly 0.44, Labor 0.43. Greens are favourite but it’s possible the others could snowball. If YNB wins here, it will give them a majority.

Parramatta – LIB 6, ALP 6, GRN 1, CC 1, Undecided 1

• Epping – Charles Chen (LWI) 0.62, Greens 0.56, Community Champions 0.41, Liberal 0.34. Those on the ground are convinced Chen has won, and he has a good chance, but that gap is quite small and preferences could make a difference.
• Rosehill – Labor 0.63, Community Champions 0.35, Our Local Community 0.35, Liberal 0.31, Noack 0.26. I don’t think anyone can catch up to Labor, so I am calling this seat for Labor.

Penrith – ALP 9, LIB 2, IND 2, LBT 1

• North – Gardiner 0.64, Cardwell 0.56, Greens 0.52, Liberal 0.27. Gardiner is leading but this is close.
• South – Labor 2.07, Day 2.05, Libertarian 1.88. I’m calling all five seats here.

Randwick – ALP 6, LIB 5, GRN 3, IND 1

Ryde – LIB 7, ALP 3, IND 1, Undecided 2

• Central – Greens 0.80, Rizk 0.66, Labor 0.40, Liberal 0.14. Greens are in the lead but not totally clear.
• West – Liberal 0.57, Alden 0.46, Kim 0.40, Labor 0.36. Liberals leading but Alden could definitely catch up on preferences.

Shoalhaven – SIG 7, ALP 3, Team Tribe 3

Sutherland – LIB 6, ALP 5, IND 1, Undecided 3

• A Ward – Glanznig 0.90, Provan 0.61, Labor 0.56, Farmer 0.41, Liberal 0.30, Animal Justice 0.21. I’m calling the second seat for Glanznig but the third seat is still in play.
• C Ward – Pesce 0.74, Liberal 0.69, Libertarian 0.31, Labor 0.26. Pesce is leading but it’s close.
• E Ward – Liberal 0.88, Cowell 0.87, Labor 0.24. This is super close. The Liberals need to win in both C and E ward to retain their majority.

Sydney – Moore Team 4, ALP 2, GRN 1, LIB 1, Yvonne Weldon 1, Undecided 1

Greens 0.61, Liberal 0.44, Libertarian 0.41, Danieli 0.28. The Greens are likely to win but I’m not ready to call it, since most of the preferences are on the right.

The Hills – LIB 9, ALP 3, Undecided 1

• North – Labor 0.72, Greens 0.72, Liberal 0.56. Labor is leading by 3 votes. Far too close to call between Labor and Greens.

Tweed – LIB 2, ALP 1, GRN 1, IND 2, Undecided 1

I’ve already called victories for independents Cherry and Hone.

For the final seat, the race is Dennis 0.56, Turner 0.40, Usher 0.36, Liberal 0.28, Cherry 0.21. Dennis is the favourite but there’s a lot of preferences to be distributed.

Wollongong – ALP 8, GRN 3, IND 2

• Ward 1 – Greens 0.82, Morris 0.79, Labor 0.23, de Vive 0.16. While this looks close, I have been told that de Vive is affiliated with Morris. Anyone who voted 1 for de Vive below the line must have numbered a 2 somewhere else, and most of them would be votes for Morris. So I’m calling this seat for Morris.