12:20 – Okay I’m going to stop here, and do another call of the board in the morning.
Central Coast – 12:19 – It looks like Labor has lost their majority, and possibly there will be a clear conservative majority.
The conservative independents who benefited from the Liberal absence in 2021 have retained their seats with little impact, while Our Local Community was wiped out in Parramatta.
Labor has retained a seat in each ward, but often with big swings. There was a swing of over 20% against Labor in Regents Park, where both Labor councillors were deselected. And in South Granville the ALP’s vote collapsed from 65% to 21% in a much enlarged field.
The Liberal Party has won three seats, with a chance for a fourth.
The three incumbent OLC councillors have been re-elected, along with Eddy Sarkis, an independent who was an OLC member in 2021. New independent Ahmed Ouf has polled strongly in South Granville, but former mayor Greg Cummings lost his seat.
The Greens look like they have won their first seat in Cumberland in the Wentworthville ward.
The only seat I have listed as undecided is the final seat in Regents Park, between the first Liberal and second Labor.
That adds up to a total of 5-6 Labor, 3-4 Liberal, 3 OLC, 2 independents and 1 Greens. If the Liberal Party win a seat in Regents Park, that’s a clear Liberal-OLC-Sarkis conservative majority.
Central Coast – 12:09 – There are a number of uncertain seats. The ALP has won five seats, one in each ward. The Liberal Party has also won seats in the four wards they have run in. Former Gosford mayor Lawrie McKinna has won at least two seats for his independent ticket.
There are another four seats not clear.
In Budgewoi, where the Liberal Party didn’t run, there are three tickets in a close contest for the last two seats: the Greens, independent Liberal Doug Eaton, and the McKinna independent.
In Gosford West, three independents are in a close race for the third seat, including the McKinna independent.
In The Entrance, the second Liberal and Animal Justice are in a close race.
So the final result looks like 5 Labor, 4-5 Liberal, 2-4 McKinna independents, and potentially a seat for Eaton, another independent, the Greens or Animal Justice.
The referendum on cutting the size of the council from 15 to 9 is also worth watching. With most booths yet to report, Yes is narrowly ahead, with 51.6%.
Canterbury-Bankstown – 11:56 – The ALP has also gone backwards in Canterbury-Bankstown even though the Liberal Party failing to nominate in two wards and failing to nominate a full ticket in a third.
In Bass Hill, it looks like the Libertarian Party have gained the Liberal Party’s seat.
In Canterbury, independent councillor Barbara Coorey and the Greens may have enough votes to each win one seat, with Labor also retaining their one seat.
In Roselands, Liberal candidates made it on the ballot below the line, but have barely cleared 0.3 quotas. Labor and Our Local Community (running former Randwick councillor Harry Stavrinos) are leading, but after that it’s hard to pick. The second Labor candidate and the Greens are both on just under half a quota. The Libertarian Party and the below-the-line Liberal candidate are also on about a third of a quota. If Labor win this seat, they’ll retain their majority.
Overall this produces a council of 7 Labor, 3 Liberals, one each for Libertarian, Our Local Community, Greens and independent, plus the hard-to-call seat in Roselands.
Campbelltown – 11:35 – The Liberal Party won four seats here last time, and their absence is keenly felt.
The Labor vote appears to have gone backwards by about 3%, and that may be enough for them to drop from seven to six seats, although it’s worth bearing in mind that the party has only held five seats for most of this term after the former mayor and an ally quit the party in early 2022.
Apart from Labor, you also have:
- Community First Totally Independent – look set to gain a third seat after two sitting independents merged their parties.
- Greens – after narrowly losing their sole seat in 2021, they are on about 12% and would win two seats. The party has previously won a sole seat in 1999, 2004, 2008 and 2016, but has never come close to winning two.
- Community Voice – Masud Khalil’s party looks likely to win two seats.
- Sustainable Australia – has won one seat, probably missing out on a second by relatively few votes.
- Adam Zahra – an independent who previously ran for One Nation, he has won about one quota.
That produces a council with six Labor, three for CFTI, two each for CVA and the Greens, and one each for Sustainable Australia and right-wing independent Zahra.
Camden – 11:21 – The Liberal nomination failure has drastically changed the shape of the council.
The Central Ward looks very boring, with Labor, Liberal and independent Peter McLean each retaining one seat.
In the North Ward, most of the Liberal vote seems to have moved to the Libertarian Party, who are currently on 1.85 quotas. Labor should retain their one seat despite not having an above-the-line box. The third seat has gone to new independent Abha Suri.
In the South Ward, the Libertarians have again gained a seat in the absence of the Liberals, and Labor has retained one seat. The third seat is a contest between two progressive independents: long-standing independent Eva Campbell, and former mayor Cindy Cagney, who had been a Labor councillor until the election. Campbell is narrowly leading.
This produces an overall result of 3 Labor, 2 Libertarian, 1 Liberal and 3 independents.
Blacktown – 11:15 – The return of the Liberal Party to Blacktown sees Labor lose two seats, but they look likely to win a majority.
The Greens have done remarkably well, polling 16-18% across their three wards. Animal Justice also polled 17% in Ward 3.
The Greens look likely on current numbers to scrape into the third seat in Ward 2, with the second Liberal and second Labor candidate narrowly behind, but that could change.
The Greens have also done well in Ward 1, and if all of the Labor surplus flowed to them they would win, but I suspect enough would leak to elect a second Liberal.
Overall the council at the moment is headed towards eight Labor, six Liberal and one Greens. That would be a net loss of two Labor seats, but would also see two non-Liberal independents wiped out.
Bayside – 11:09 – Peaceful Bayside were a new contender here, and the Liberal Party returned after not running in 2021. Peaceful Bayside leader Heidi Lee Douglas has polled a full quota, but her party has otherwise not done well enough to win seats.
It looks like Labor has retained 6 seats, losing one in Ward 1 to the Greens. The Liberal Party has won five seats – one in each ward – but no prospect of any other seats.
The Greens look likely to win a second seat in Ward 2 off Labor.
Greens councillor Greta Werner looks likely to retain her seat in Ward 3, narrowly defeating Peaceful Bayside and conservative independent councillor Andrew Tsounis.
In Ward 4, long-standing independent councillor Liz Barlow is leading, but the Greens and Peaceful Bayside are not far behind and I think one of them will likely chase down Barlow with the other’s preferences (plus a Labor surplus). The Greens are leading.
In Ward 5, Labor, Liberal and Peaceful Bayside easily win.
This produces a result of 6 Labor, 5 Liberal, 2-3 Greens, 1-2 Peaceful Bayside. This is a slight reduction for Labor and an increase of 2 seats for the progressive crossbench. The other independents were crunched between those new progressive crossbenchers and the return of the Liberal Party and have been wiped out.
10:49 – It’s hard to generalise but there are some trends:
- Where the Libertarian Party was an obvious contender to replace a missing Liberal, they did very well – it looks like they’ve won 2 seats each in Penrith, Camden, Mid-Coast and one in Canterbury-Bankstown.
- Greens have had some good results in Epping, Wentworthville and Blacktown 2, and may have gained a second seat on the City of Sydney.
I’m going to start running through my profiled councils one by one, in alphabetical order, summing up each one, and see how long that takes.
9:47 – Liverpool mayor Ned Mannoun has a big lead on Labor candidate Betty Green. We don’t have a preference count but he appears to be in a strong position.
9:04 – In Camden North, Labor didn’t manage to get a box above the line and the Libertarian Party is over 40% of the vote.
Right now council looks like 3 ALP, 1 LIB, 2 LBT, 3 IND. Little or no shift to the left, but Libs replaced by much less known candidates.
9:00 – Labor incumbent Nuatali Nelmes is neck-and-neck with Labor breakaway Ross Kerridge for the Newcastle mayoral, with the Greens having the next biggest share of the vote. Not sure how that will go.
Plus Greens have won a seat in Ward 3 and a chance in Ward 4.
8:55 – Looks like Lane Cove has elected a progressive majority.
8:49 – The Greens are also looking competitive in Wentworthville ward of Cumberland. Labor’s majority on that council is looking shaky.
8:44 – Greens look competitive in Ward 2 of Blacktown – currently on just under 18% of the vote.
8:29 – A tiny vote in Camden South suggests the Liberal vote has switched to the Libertarians there too.
8:27 – It’s a lot trickier to predict individual council races. In Parramatta, it’s hard to say how well Community Champions will do because it seems like they might have a lot of BTL votes, but it looks like a progressive majority with OLC wiped out.
8:24 – In Shoalhaven, where the Greens mayor has stood down after 8 years, the Greens are in third place on 19%, with Shoalhaven Independent Group candidate Patricia White leading with 44.8%. That council looks likely to flip to the right despite Liberal absence.
8:20 – The Liberal Party has a big lead in Ryde’s mayoral ballot. 40% Liberal, 24% Labor. This is the first time Ryde has a directly elected mayor.
8:14 – At the moment in the North Ward of Penrith, the Libertarian Party is polling two full quotas. The Liberal Party didn’t run there.
8:08 – Clover Moore is on 38% of the primary vote for mayor of City of Sydney, which would be a swing of about 5% but no-one else is close.
For tonight I’ll be mostly focusing on the 27 big councils which I profiled for my election guide. I expect it to be a bit chaotic and random tonight, but I’ll come back with a council-by-council call of the board blog post tomorrow.
What’s the prediction for Clover Moore’s final first preference vote count? She got 42.9% in 2021, which was already down almost 15% – could she drop below 40%? Would still win handily on 2PP you’d think but just curious to see which way it tracks.
In the Hills mayoral race, Michelle Byrne (Liberal) is currently leading with 56.9% of the first preference vote. However, only a few hundred votes have been counted so far.
Newcastle is currently a three-way mayoral race with Labor’s Nuatali Nelmes first (37.1%), independent Ross Kerridge second (32.2%) and Liberal Callum Pull third (20.0%).
In Lake Macquarie, Labor’s Adam Schultz is ahead with 30.2% followed by Liberal 23.3% and the Greens’ Bryce Ham with 18.6%, which is quite high for Lake Macquarie. My guess is that this booth is from a more progressive part of the LGA, so the Labor and Liberal vote should tick up when we get to the more Liberal areas like Warners Bay, Valentine and Coal Point.
Labor’s Leah Anderson has 48.1% in Port Stephens at the moment.
Now the Central Coast is looking interesting.
Early figures have come in for Wyong Ward, and they are very good for the Liberals, though this is likely a small semi-rural booth.
The Liberals have 48.7% of the vote in that ward at the moment, independents are second with 25.9%, Labor is third with 22.2% and ungrouped independents are last with 3.2%.
Some mayoral figures in northern Sydney:
* Hornsby: Independent (Nathan Tilbury) 37.0%
* Ryde: Liberal (Trenton Brown) 50.8%
* The Hills: Liberal (Michelle Byrne) 59.1%
Independent Nikki Williams is ahead in Coffs Harbour with 37.8%. With the retirement of Port Macquarie-Hastings Mayor Peta Pinson I don’t think any independent Nationals are running so regional councils will be independent races.
Maitland is looking bad for Labor on early figures, with independent Philip Pentfold at 59.9%.
Again I am at a football game so all the updates you’re getting now won’t be going on for much longer since the game will start soon.
High informal rates (18-20%) across Northern Beaches on the early counts in Pittwater, Curl Curl and Frenchs Forest Wards. Curiously the one Liberal that managed to get on the ballot (as an independent) in Pittwater is polling over 2 quotas but has no running mate.
I’m back again. What a game of footy! Lions through to the prelims!
Giants stole some things though: stole the concept of goal songs from us and the song “Strawberry Kisses” from the Matildas (it’s Steph Catley’s favourite song). Oh and they rickrolled us.
Anyway, Clover Moore claimed victory in the Sydney lord mayoral race. Look congrats to her but please don’t run again.
Big winners are the far right, esp the Libertarians. Greens doing really well in the outer suburbs, presumably from disaffected Labor voters, but getting some pretty mediocre results in the inner city. Better Councils, a pro-Israeli astroturfing outfit, has conducted a massive campaign to unseat as many of them as possible from councils like Woolahra, Waverley, Randwick and the Inner West, so maybe that’s not surprising. Doing well in Byron and
Wollongong too. Biggest losers are the Libs (obviously) but Labor are not doing great either. I don’t care what anyone says, this is at least partly reflective of general sentiments in state and national politics, and most indications are that NSW is actually one of the most stable for the Labor vote. And that indicates to me that that Labor are in real trouble for 2025.
NP, Why do you think Moore keeps winning? Is it because people don’t know what they are voting for anymore, or is it lack of credible opposition to this old powerhoarder?
@Daniel T no credible opposition I guess, but you inner Sydney is quite progressive but also small-l-liberal so she can attract voters from all sides despite being incompetent.
@Blather perhaps because there are no Liberals.
@Furtive Lawngnome the Liberals are doing okay in some areas. Labor has lost ground to them on the Central Coast and the Liberals have gained a majority in Ryde. Shoalhaven and Tweed moved rightwards.
Why the Libertarians did so well is a bit of a mystery. When they were the Liberal Democrats a lot of their voters were accidental voters who thought they were voting Liberal (hence why they did so well in the federal seat of Richmond in 2022). But now their name is different so I’m not sure why so many voters are still confused.
Maybe the libertarians thought they were voting for the liberals
What a shame there are so many voters who simply get their names ticked off. In Bayside 25% informal vote and reportedly most of them are blank ballot papers!
If half of these non voting “voters” took the time to seek out good, local community representatives, we may see more efficient and well targeted use of ratepayers money!
Major parties “anoint” candidates into number one position on Labor or Liberal tickets, thus almost guaranteeing election to Council. Curiously, most don’t actually live in the Ward they are elected to. Some don’t even live in the LGA! Local Government sure is a weird animal.
@Nether Portal it is because of the absence of the Liberals on many ballots which made the Libertarians the only party on the ballot with “Liber” in their name. Many people, unbeknownst to the Liberal party’s failure to get on the ballot, but seeking to vote for the Liberals, probably even thought they were selecting the Liberals.
@SEQ Observer: Not just “Liber”, the full name of the party as shown on the ballot is “Libertarian Party (Formerly Liberal Democrats)”. So the entire word “Liberal” was there for intending Liberal voters to notice. Not everyone who voted for them would have been confused in this way, of course, and I expect in many places the perception that they were the only right-wing option would have drawn Liberal voters who knew exactly what they were doing as well, but I think the potential for name-related confusion was definitely there.
Harry, you’re mistaken. The informal rate won’t be anywhere near that high. A majority of those votes will end up as formal votes, mostly below-the-line votes.
The Libertarian/Liberal crossover may be confusion, but it could also be Liberal voters who know that their party isn’t on the ballot and decide based on the name that it’s the next best option.
@Ben Raue that would make sense.
Interestingly in Australia the core libertarian vote (for the Libertarian Party) is small compared to many other Western countries including New Zealand. The ACT Party has consistently won seats in the NZ Parliament and formed coalition governments with the National Party while in Australia there has never been a Libertarian elected to a lower house seat anywhere. Most of ACT’s seats are list seats but they still hold two electorates, both in Auckland (the affluent seat of Epsom is held by the party’s leader David Seymour while the neighbouring seat of Tāmaki is held by Brooke van Velden).