The Australian Electoral Commission yesterday announced the final decision for the federal redistributions in Victoria and Western Australia.
Unfortunately the AEC hasn’t yet published the maps, digital boundary files or data matching each SA1 to each electorate. While it may be possible to estimate these, I don’t have capacity with all of the elections going on now.
The final determination will be published on September 24 for Western Australia and October 17 for Victoria, so I will attempt to update my margin estimates then.
For now, I just wanted to summarise the electorates that have undergone some changes since the first draft. If a seat is not mentioned, that means the draft margin estimate should stand.
For Victoria:
- Ballarat retains an area proposed to go into Bendigo
- Bendigo gains an area proposed to stay with Nicholls
- Chisholm and Hotham swapped areas
- Corangamite retains an area proposed to go into Wannon
- McEwen and Scullin swapped areas
Thus nine out of thirty-eight seats have been adjusted.
For Western Australia:
- Canning retains an area proposed to go into Forrest
- Cowan retains an area proposed to go into Hasluck
- Fremantle and Tangney swapped areas
Thus six out of sixteen seats have been adjusted.
I have read through the final boundaries for Victorian divisions. I am disappointed that there were no changes to the boundary between Corio and Lalor, as well as the boundary between Melbourne and Macnamara.
It is completely unnecessary for Corio to cross into the City of Wyndham. To make sure Corio does not cross into the City of Wydham, only the boundaries of Corio, Lalor and Gellibrand need to be changed from the proposed redistribution, as my COB and Drake’s Objection have shown. I don’t understand why the Augmented Electoral Commission chose not to fix this serious flaw that can be fixed with relatively small changes in boundaries.
In terms of the boundary between Melbourne and Macnamara, I don’t understand why the Augmented Electoral Commission thought it made sense to transfer South Yarra and part of Prahran that are not closely linked with the CBD to Melbourne, while transferring suburbs like South Wharf and Southbank that are closely linked with the CBD to Macnamara.
Understandly, the Augmented Electoral Commission has chosen not to transfer Woodend from McEwen to Bendigo, because doing so will cause substantial boundary changes, affecting the boundaries of seven other divisions. Transferring Woodend from McEwen to Bendigo means McEwen needs to gain voters from Jagajaga, Jagajaga needs to gain voters from Cooper, Copper needs to gain voters from Wills, Wills needs to gain voters from Maribyrnong, Maribyrnong needs to gain voters from Hawke and Gorton.
I also don’t understand the need to change the boundary of Hawke. Since Hawke already meets the numerical requirements at the commencement of the redistribution, its boundary does not need to be changed. What’s even more puzzling is that both the Redistribution Committee and the Augmented Electoral Commission have chosen to let the slightly over-quota Hawke to gain voters from the significantly under-quota Maribyrnong.
I welcome the Augmented Electoral Commission’s decision to unite the whole of Hepburn Shire in Ballarat, but I struggle to understand why they thought the Hepburn Shire should not be split between two divisions but the Campaspe Shire should.
Overall, I think the final boundaries for Victoria are still a bit messy, especially along the Wyndham – Greater Geelong corridor and Eastern Melbourne, although some of the mess are unavoidable due to numerical requirements.
@Angas I can’t find Corio in your maps. What’s the boundary for Corio? And there must be another Geelong based seat other than Corio. Could you please post a detailed map of the Geelong area? Thank you.
2 weeks until determination in WA
@Joseph
Agree with all your points above. I’m really interested to see why they didn’t amend the Lalor boundary when they release the report.
And good catch, I hadn’t done a map for the Geelong area earlier. Here it is:
https://ibb.co/twRV0Zh
Funnily enough, after complaining about Corio and Hawke breaching the Wyndham boundary, the numbers meant that I would have to the the reverse with Lalor spilling into Avalon, Little River and the rural parts of Lara.
@Angas…I may be missing something but cannot see the Geelong area. Overall excellent. The do seem more coherent that the current maps as someone mentioned. Ta Mike
@Angas
As someone from Geelong good map. Those parts you sent to Lalor fit well, they are kind of just empty farm land and cut off from the rest of Geelong. I consider Lara to be as far out as Geelong goes. Similarly Anakie is completely seperated from the rest of the Geelong and feels way more like the Golden Plains towns.
I wonder if the numbers would work to make a Geelong + Bannockburn, Bellarine and then growth suburbs/Surf Coast seat. The numbers probably don’t work though.