After the Country Liberal Party clinched victory over the Greens in the seat of Fannie Bay, the Greens have surprisingly won the neighbouring seat of Nightcliff over former Labor chief minister Natasha Fyles.
The NTEC has only now conducted a preferential count between Labor and the Greens, seemingly with all primary votes now added to the count. With all of those distributed, the Greens beat Labor by 42 votes.
There are two particularly interesting elements here: the Greens managed to leapfrog the CLP from third place, thanks to strong preference flows from the independents, and then went on to win thanks to a very poor flow of preferences from CLP to Labor despite CLP preferences putting Labor ahead of the Greens.
Antony Green has posted the full distribution of preferences on his blog post.
The first part of the explanation comes from the high vote for independents. Progressive independent Mililma May polled 19.3%, not far behind the Greens’ Kat McNamara on 21.9%. Without a strong fourth-placed candidate, it’s hard to have enough votes for someone to leapfrog from third place into second.
Preferences from May and other independent George Mamouzellos flowed 72.6% to the Greens, 14.0% to Labor and 13.4% to the CLP. This was enough to give the Greens a 3CP of 37.5%, Labor 35.8% and CLP 26.6%. Independent preferences not only pushed the Greens into second, but into first.
The second element of the win came from Country Liberal preferences, which were expected to favour the ALP. But just 51.4% of CLP preferences flowed to Labor.
This left the Greens with 50.47% of the two-candidate-preferred vote, and a 42-vote margin.
Third-placed finishes are very rare under compulsory preferential voting (as used in the NT), and almost unheard of under optional preferential voting.
I found this article seemingly written by Antony Green in 2011 around the time of the UK referendum on introducing NSW-style optional preferential voting which lists a handful of examples under CPV, most of which involved multiple conservative candidates leapfrogging Labor, plus the defeat of Pauline Hanson by the Liberal Party in 1998.
I can think of a few more cases that have taken place in more recent years. As our party system has become more complex, with candidates winning on a smaller share of the vote and more seats where there are two candidates in a close race for second, it becomes likely someone who is just behind on primary votes could end up ahead on 3CP and end up winning.
Independent MP Andrew Wilkie first won election in Denison in 2010 from third place, with 21.3% of the primary vote. Greens preferences pushed Wilkie into second, and Liberal preferences then elected him over Labor.
The Greens’ Sam Hibbins won twice from third place in the Victorian state seat of Prahran. In 2014, he won despite trailing Labor by 426 votes. In 2018, the Labor and Greens votes both increased, leading to a comfortable 2CP win, but Hibbins still Labor’s Neil Pharoah by 355 votes on the primary vote.
And Greens federal MP Stephen Bates won the seat of Brisbane in 2022 despite trailing Labor by eleven votes on the primary vote.
The Greens have always found it a challenge to win single member electorates, but they have now won at least one seat in all but one state, territory or federal single-member chamber around the country.
They won their first seat in the House of Representatives at a by-election in 2002, and won their first general election seat in Melbourne in 2010. They won the WA state seat of Fremantle in 2009, but are yet to win a general election seat in the WA Legislative Assembly.
The Greens went on to win their first NSW state seat in Balmain in 2011, their first Victorian state seats in Melbourne and Prahran in 2014, and their first Queensland state seat in Maiwar in 2017. Earlier this year they won the Tasmanian Legislative Council seat of Hobart.
This leaves the SA House of Assembly as the only single-member chamber they are yet to win a seat in, although an ex-Labor member sat briefly as a Greens member in the early 2000s.
This also leaves NT Labor with absolutely no seats in urban seats, and only with four Indigenous MPs in large remote electorates. The Greens have also managed to make the 2CP in three seats, narrowly winning in Nightcliff, narrowly losing in Fannie Bay and losing by a slightly larger margin in the Alice Springs seat of Braitling. A very interesting final element to this NT election story.
“still Labor’s”?
Crazy considering Nightcliff was the safest seat in the NT going into 2024 election.
Not on my NT Election bingo card at all. Safest seat and now she’s lost it.
Highlights just how bad Labor has been trounced in urban areas.
It’s pretty bad when any successful candidate only has legitimate claim to such a small percentage of total votes 🗳️ but as the results indicate getting around 30% primary votes is the new normal…
One door closes for the Greens, another one opens. I don’t see Labor taking this one back anytime soon.
@Wilson I think they will go backwards in Braitling and Fannie Bay (redistribution won’t help) but go forwards in Nightcliff. The demographics are more suited in Nightcliff.
James knight, whilst the greens only got 30% first preference votes the overall result shows the vote was split almost four ways between Labor, CLP, Greens and Milima May. Given this even split of votes, it is not surprising that many votes for May and CLP preferred Greens over Labor.
I can see people falsely claiming on social media that every single ALP chief minister in the territory ever’s seats are no longer held by them, This is false.
Which part of that is false? There’s been 5 ALP chief ministers who have represented four seats: Fannie Bay, Wanguri, Drysdale and Nightcliff. The ALP has lost all four of those seats.
@NP You could well be right but I wouldn’t make any predictions on it now. I would also not discount just how much having an MP will help the NT Greens with resources and campaign building, especially as a minor party in a jurisdiction with no public funding for elections. It will be interesting to see how they go in local elections next year.
@Daniel T, is it not true? Martin & Gunner were Fannie Bay (now CLP), Henderson was Wanguri (now CLP), Lawler lost her seat to the CLP and Fyles was Nightcliff which is now Green.
Are you sure Nightcliff is done and dusted, has it been the cur-off date for a recount or court challenge, or was the recount just complete?
If the Greens only took the lead today that is why I’m skeptical of calling it. Can Fyles request a recount? If so it isn’t over until then.
I am starting to think that this is what got the Queensland LNP so wound up and re-floating Optional Preferential Voting as of late.
They would have been closely watching this election, likely having some close contacts at the CLP who were scrutineers. Not only were the CLP leapfrogged in Nightcliff, but they were sweating up until the final parts of the count in Fannie Bay. In an OPV environment, they probably would have made 2CP in Nightcliff, perhaps shutting the Greens out. And in Fannie Bay, a chunk of Labor votes would have exhausted, rather than flowing to the Greens. This would have let them coast home.
Actually, looking at Nightcliff some more, it would have been hard to stop that flow to the Greens from the progressive independent even in an OPV environment. So Greens probably would have leapfrogged the CLP irregardless of OPV vs CPV.
It definitely would have made a difference to the flow of votes the Greens received from the CLP however. Labor might have ended up with a narrow margin in their favour after CLP votes were exhausted and distributed.
I feel like the opposite would have happened SEQ Observer, the CLP voters who followed the party’s how-to-vote card and preferenced Labor would almost certainly be more likely to just vote 1 CLP and leave the rest of the ballot blank in an OPV election. The preference flow to the Greens might have been even stronger.
Agree Indrico – although the independent to Greens preference flow under OPV would also be weaker, probably under 50% so that would make it harder for the Greens to overtake the CLP.
Greens miss out on Fannie Bay from unusually low Labor preferences, only to win Nightcliff from unusually high Liberal preferences. Swings and roundabouts indeed.
Feels like Hinchinbrook in 2017. I am sure it will likely go the same way where next election it’ll be a safer bet for the Greens when the personal vote comes in. Are they the third party to win a seat in every state/territory? Outside of Libs/Labor? Have Nats won in every state?
labors path back to power is further eroded now. they currently have 3 safe labor seats held by independents and greens
i reckon had the greens won fannie bay and/or the clp won daly we may have seen the crossbench assume the manra of opposition
BREAKING: NIGHTCLIFF CALLED
The ABC has called Nightcliff, the final seat in doubt. Former Chief Minister Natasha Fyles has lost her seat to the Greens’ Kat McNamara, one of many shock defeats of Labor MPs in safe seats in Darwin’s north.
A recount reduced the Greens lead to 33 votes. This is a historic victory for progressives and the left-wing in Australia, as the Territory was the last state or territory to have never elected a Greens politician on the federal or state/territory level.
It also means every seat ever held by a Labor Chief Minister is now held by someone else.
Michael Gunner and Clare Martin’s old seat of Fannie Bay on Darwin’s coastline is now a CLP seat. Paul Henderson’s old seat of Wanguri is now a CLP seat. Eva Lawler’s seat of Drysdale fell to the CLP on election night and now Natasha Fyles has too lost her seat, but this time to the Greens.
Well that is a knock out blow.
It could be done for the other parties too – Federal Libs since 1945
Cook – Morrison – Lib held
Wentworth – Turnbull, Hewson – Teal
Warringah – Abbott – Teal
Bradfield – Nelson – Lib held
Bennelong – Howard – ALP held twice since JWH
Mayo – Downer – Ind held
Kooyong – Peacock, Menzies – Teal
Wannon – Fraser – Lib held
Bruce – Sneddon – ALP held numerous times
Lowe – McMahon – abolished but Labor held after him
Higgins – Gorton, Holt – Labor held
Fascinating thing about that is Higgins, Kooyong, Wentworth, Warringah were entirely Liberal until the last two elections
Lowe is the current Reid
@Redistributed while Rebekha Sharkie does act like a teal she is actually a member of the Centre Alliance party. Interestingly the party flopped despite being tipped to be a third force in SA (like One Nation and KAP in Queensland) but failed like the TA in the NT after it. Now the Centre Alliance only contests Mayo federally and the Legislative Council on the state level where they hold two seats (they’re called SA Best on the state level).
Seems to be a thing of both major parties having historically had their leaders be in safe inner city seats that are way more socially liberal than the Australian public. This has made these seats vulnerable to independents and the Greens.
On the Labor side
Grayndler – at risk to Greens when Albo retires
Maribyrnong – safe Labor
Lalor – safe Labor
Griffith – held by Greens
Werriwa – marginal against Libs
Hotham – safe Labor
Brand- safe Labor
Blaxland – safe Labor (maybe vulnerble to Gaza IND)
Wills – marginal vs Greens
@drake Grayndler has been made safer for labor moving into barton its Sydney where the real threat will be
Griffith is gonna be safe greens for a while now werriwa i would wager is at risk of being lost and brand i reckon may become less safe especially when AUKUS hits top gear, blaxland i think might be lose du to a number of key factors and i think wills might be lost as well
@Drake interestingly, in the Voice referendum:
* Albo’s seat of Grayndler voted Yes
* Bill Shorten’e seat of Maribyrnong voted Yes
* Kevin Rudd’s old seat of Griffith voted Yes
* Malcolm Turnbull and John Hewson’s old seat of Wentworth voted Yes
* Tony Abbott’s old seat of Warringah voted Yes
And so on. Note that some of those seats (like Wentworth) are polarised between more progressive and more conservative areas (in the case of Wentworth, Vaucluse voted No and strongly votes Liberal but Bondi strongly voted Yes and since Turnbull’s gone it now votes strongly teal and on notional counts Labor and the Greens are ahead of the Liberals because of how teal it is).
@John if Sydney ever went to the Greens it would have to be a Greens vs Liberal contest after Tanya Plibersek retires (I can’t stand her but I don’t want another Green in Parliament).
Why? Because suburbs like Pyrmont have a decent Liberal vote and are small-l-liberal areas, then there’s Millers Point which is a Liberal booth. Last time it was Labor vs Greens but I think if the Greens are gonna win it they have to outpoll Labor and either get Liberal preferences or the Liberals have to outpoll Labor.
NP, I think there has to be a recount. I certainly am not conceding it yet. They did a FPC (Full Preference Count) But Fyles has a right to request a full-recount/recanvasing if she wishes to do so.
Or was there already a recount? I was reading they did a FPC between ALP and GRN which has the GRN ahead by 42 votes or so and I am reading it came down down to 30 votes or so. But did they recount the preferences again?
Fyles should wait a little longer if she wishes. But if she concedes then I am willing to concede that Labor has lost this
@Daniel T the ABC has called it and says there was a recount because it was Labor vs Greens not Labor vs CLP.
Understood, I didn’t know, I thought it was just a FPC and they just called it because they completed counting without a recount. What percentage of Mililma May’s preferences broke to the Greens over the CLP?
@Daniel T I could work it out later tonight (I won’t be active much between 8:00pm and 10:00pm because the Socceroos are playing) but the ABC said earlier today there was a “very high” preference flow from Mililma May to the Greens, indicating she is a progressive independent.
Overall, according to the ABC (they’ve now changed what it says so it doesn’t say this anymore) the preference flow from other candidates to the Greens over Labor was 61.5%, with a lower-than-expected preference flow from the CLP to Labor (CLP preferences still narrowly went to Labor). The CLP recommended putting Labor above the Greens in every seat.
What’s interesting is preference flows and the Greens have had a complex relationship at this election. A lower-than-expected preference flow between Labor and the Greens led to Fannie Bay being won by the CLP albeit quite narrowly while Nightcliff was won by the Greens because CLP to Labor preferences where lower than expected.
So according to Ben and Antony’s blog posts, this was the distribution of preferences (without George Mamouzellos):
Mililma May excluded:
* Preference flow: 72.6% to the Greens, 14.0% to Labor, 13.4% to the CLP
* Three-candidate-preferred vote: Greens 37.6%, Labor 35.8%, CLP 26.6%
CLP excluded:
* Preference flow: 51.4% to Labor, 48.6% to the Greens
* Two-candidate-preferred vote: Greens 50.5%, Labor 49.5%
The only reason Antony Green had it in doubt for so long was because he assumed CLP preferences would go 60% to Labor like they usually would (especially when the HTV card recommends preferences to Labor over the Greens).
@Nether Portal a bit unrelated, but my hypothesis around Grace Grace holding McConnell is similar to Plibersek holding sydney.
Both seats are demographically Green vs Lib (inner-city, with pockets of wealthy small-l liberals), but the high profile and name recognition of both Labor MPs has kept both electorates for Labor. And obviously, until they retire, their respective electorates will stay Labor.
@AA with all due respect I don’t think you can compare Sydney, a seat where the Greens are a million miles away from winning, to McConnel, which requires ~1,000 votes to flip from Labor to Green for the Greens to take it. Don’t doubt that Grace’s personal vote makes it harder for the Greens but McConnel is vastly more winnable.
@daniel t theyve already done the recount after the green won by 42 votes the recount determined the greens won by 33. its over and done fyles has lost no ifs no buts no coconuts
@ough OK, that’s fair. I probably shouldn’t have said they’re similar – obviously one has a much higher margin than the other.
The Greens lead is now 36 votes.
Fannie Bay and Night-life are now ultra marginal for
3 parties
my prediction for 2028 baring a CLP collapse.
Greens retain Nightcliffe and win Fannie Bay from the CLP.
Labor win Casuarina and Sanderson from CLP
Seats in doubt are Daly and Barkly.
All other seats remain the same.
CLP to continue governing in Majority.
2032. Most likely minority govenment either way. Cant see Labor regaining a majority without Fannie Bay, Nightcliffe, Mulka and Johnston