What will the ballots look like in NSW council elections

NSW local government elections are conducted using single transferable vote proportional representation, but the actual shape of the ballot paper differs depending on who runs, and whether they run as a group.

This is a somewhat elegant way to allow for the same system to produce a Senate-style grouped ballot with above-the-line voting for big urban councils, but also means that in small rural councils, where parties don’t exist, candidates run as individuals on a vertical ballot. But it can create some odd shapes when councils transition between those two states.

Candidates nominate as individuals first – that is the rule across the state. But they can then choose to associate together as a group.

If no groups nominate, then the ballot paper is a vertical list of names, much like a mayoral ballot or a contest for the House of Representatives, like this first ballot paper.

If even just one group nominates, then they get a separate column.

For a group to get an above-the-line box, they must run a certain number of candidates: the same as the number of seats in a ward, or half the number of seats (rounded up) in an unwarded council.

But at least two groups must meet the above-the-line threshold. If only one meets the threshold, there is no above-the-line voting.

When just one group nominates, you get an odd ballot paper shape like to the right.

This is quite a confusing shape, and I have heard that this can produce results where voters try to fill out both columns as if they are two ballots, thus making their vote informal.

Incidentally I would argue the law should be changed for these cases, so that the sole group is dissolved and their candidates added to the right column.

It’s worth noting in the case of Singleton, Group A wouldn’t have qualified for an above-the-line box, since they failed to run five candidates. I’m not sure of the point.

Now you might think that, once there are two groups or more, that means that ballot would feature above-the-line voting. I had that assumption before doing this analysis. But there are a few exceptions.

In 2024, there are eight unwarded councils with groups but no above-the-line voting. In six cases, there is just one above-the-line group. Interestingly only in one of these cases did the group run enough candidates for an above-the-line box.

But there are also two councils with numerous groups but no above-the-line voting, since only one or zero groups nominated sufficient candidates. Seven groups are running for Griffith, but none of them are running more than three candidates. And in Inverell four groups are running, each with just two candidates.

Interestingly this is close to standard practice in these councils. In Griffith in 2021, two groups ran the six candidates necessary for a box above the line, while another five just ran 2-3 candidates each. Only three of the eleven seats went to candidates with above-the-line voting, with less than a quarter of votes cast above the line.

Finally, councils with multiple groups running the necessary number of groups default to above-the-line voting, and in these places above-the-line voting predominates. I am planning another blog post about chances of success running below the line, so I’ll wait to do analysis on the actual votes.

As an example, here’s the ballot for my local ward:

I expect most voters will number boxes above the line, and a group that ran only two candidates would be at a distinct disadvantage.

This final type of ballot predominates in the most populous parts of New South Wales, with just under 90% of enrolled voters facing such a ballot in 2011-12 and 2016-17. It dropped a little in 2021, mainly because Wingecarribee and Central Coast did not have elections, and (assuming Liverpool has an election) it will reach a new high of 91.7% in 2024. If Liverpool doesn’t have an election, that number will drop to 88.9%.

If you do a raw count of wards, the above-the-line ballot is not quite so dominant. It was used for 59.1% of ballots in 2011-12, and has reached a high of 66.9% in 2024.

This is because there is a very clear geographical difference in where these different ballots are used. This map shows which ballot structure is used in each council at each of the last three election cycles. Where a council has used multiple types in different wards, I’ve listed it as “mixed”, but that hasn’t happened since 2017.

The above-the-line method rules for almost the entire coastline, stretching from Bega Valley to Kempsey without interruption. Nambucca Valley, Clarence Valley and Ballina are the only coastal councils without above-the-line voting as of 2024.

The map looks messier for 2016-17, which may reflect the uncertainty caused by council amalgamations, but for 2021 and 2024 the zones are more distinct. Councils with groups but no above-the-line voting mostly border the above-the-line zone, with smaller councils further inland having no groups. Plus some small rural councils had totally uncontested ballots.

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