When I was compiling my candidate lists I was keeping track of what was happening with incumbent councillors.
This has allowed me (at least for the councils I am closely following) to calculate the proportion of seats where the councillor is running for re-election. I have previously tracked this statistic in 2021, so I can compare the two data points.
This map shows the figure for the 26 councils facing election that I have profiled. The map is zoomed in on the Sydney region but you can scroll all the way up to Tweed.
While I have called it a retirement rate, it actually covers all seats without a recontesting councillor. So where a council seat is vacant, that counts as a retirement. Where a councillor retired mid-term and was replaced, I am basing this on the new councillor’s recontesting decision.
It’s not surprising that some of the highest rates are in councils severely affected by the Liberal nomination stuff-up.
Over half of Northern Beaches and Penrith seats are not contested by an incumbent, and barely 30% of Shoalhaven seats have an incumbent running again. The Shoalhaven situation is partly due to the two Liberal councillors not running, but is also due to most of the Greens and Shoalhaven Independents councillors not running. There are also eight retirements in Wollongong, where three Liberal councillors failed to nominate and the independent lord mayor and his running mate, and both Greens councillors, are also standing down.
But tied with Shoalhaven for the most retirements is The Hills, which has a full complement of Liberal council candidates. Six Liberal councillors and three Labor councillors are standing down. We know that the mayor Peter Gangemi lost preselection, so I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those other departures were not voluntary.
There are on retirements from Tweed or Ku-ring-gai. Retirement rates are also very low in Cumberland, Fairfield and the City of Sydney. These tend to be councils were a governing majority (whether it’s one party or with some friendly allies) is clearly in control, which perhaps has dialled back the conflict and made being a councillor more bearable. Although in some of these cases there’s a big difference between those in power and those not. Only one of the three opposition councillors in Fairfield is running again, but every councillor in the Carbone-Le faction is running again (improbably this includes sitting federal MP Dai Le).
But this doesn’t explain Inner West, where quite a few councillors are retiring despite the council now having a clear majority. I don’t think anyone would say that the Labor majority there has done much to lower the tone in local debates.
If you compare the data to the 2021 data, the pattern looks quite different. In one sense that makes sense – if a council has a lot of turnover at one election, you might expect less at the next election. If anything it’s more interesting to see councils with high rates at both elections.
The Hills had eight vacancies in 2021, and nine in 2024. No other council has had such a higher retirement rate two elections in a row.
Over half of councillors retiring two elections in a row seems a bit odd. Except that’s what’s happening in the Hills Shire. Why?
Does losing preselection count as retirement? If so then that explains it since the Hills Liberal branch has had factionalism result in candidates lose preselection.