A by-election will be coming up soon for the NSW state seat of Pittwater, at the northern end of the Northern Beaches, after sitting Liberal MP Rory Amon was charged with ten sexual assault offences earlier today. Amon also resigned from the Liberal Party.
We don’t yet know when a by-election will be held, but I think there is still time to hold the by-election alongside the October 19 by-elections in Epping and Hornsby, two seats at the western edge of the northern suburbs of Sydney triggered by the resignation of former treasurer Matt Kean and former premier Dominic Perrottet.
This looks like a tough race for the Liberal Party. Local independent Jacqui Scruby came within 606 votes of winning in 2023, and she appears to already be preparing for a 2027 run. The circumstances of Amon’s departure won’t help his former party.
I have now published my guide to Pittwater, so check it out.
@Nether Portal I think any star moderate person would stay well away for now. The Liberal brand is way down between the allegations and the forms.
My money is that they run a half hearted campaign with Michael Gencher, then lick their wounds to win it back from the teals next State Election
@Anonycat I don’t think they’d risk that. The Coalition has 36 seats in the Legislative Assembly and Labor’s got 45, a minority of just two seats. The Coalition needs 11 to get a majority at the next state election, so if they lose one then they’ll have to win 12 which makes it harder for them to regain government.
The Liberals will run and they will finish first or second.
@Nether Portal
My point was more – what star moderate in their right mind would run for the Libs right now? I also think the nominations debacle will mean their donations are down. Why would a star moderate waste their efforts right now.
Scruby has confirmed that she will run at the by-election
If she runs on a platform of not associating with child sex offenders it should do well in the electorate.
I expect her to win unless something weird happens like Greens taking votes and exhausting preferences
The liberals have selected current Northern Beaches deputy mayor and councillor for the Manly ward, Georgina Ryburn as the candidate for this by-election
Georgina will be freed up from working on the council after this weekend due to the NSW liberal party not lodging her nomination form the the upcoming election
@Bazza so she’s being parachuted in? I mean same LGA but not the same electorate.
Unless she campaigns hard I can see this becoming a teal seat. This is the more tealy part of Mackellar though it’s worth noting that the NSW and Victorian Liberals held up the small-l-liberal vote in the last state elections with moderate MPs and candidates, but this was the seat the teals nearly won last time.
Likely teal gain but then maybe a Liberal regain in 2027.
@np its not really a parachute. its not like shes coming from the other side of sydney. also agree on a teal gain due to the circumstances of the by election but i think by 2027 people on the north shore will turn against the teals due to the likelihood of them siding with labor at a federal level
@ NP
I actually have an idea for another great map for the Victorian local councils like the great maps you have been doing.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/56208/comment-page-1#comment-813514
@Nimalan thanks for the idea, I’ll do it some time this arvo.
Nether Portal – definitely not a parachute. She is born-and-bred Northern Beaches. A far cry from when the Liberal Party tried to parachute Paul Nicolau into the seat.
To the best of my knowledge, Scruby would be the bigger parachute, given her background in Mosman, but this is semantics.