Podcast #128: NT election – the 90s are back

Very interesting. I wonder will Darwin will stay like this or if it’ll change back, and perhaps what could potentially happen in Solomon.

@ NP
I think the podcast made a good point about winning the right seats not just government in 2012 the CLP made inroads into remote indigenous seats rather than winning Darwin seats this time it was the opposite eventhough on both occasions the CLP won atleast 16 seats. It maybe a lesson for the Libs to form government through traditional areas as the podcast mentioned and so did Antony Green that it led to infighting perhaps this should tell Sky After Dark to focus not to focus on areas like St Albans in Victoria if Libs ever win it and not traditional seats it may actually lead to a government that falls as people in such areas like Big Government.

@Nimalan good point about traditional seats. To use a Victorian example once upon a time the Eastern Suburbs of Melbourne were usually Liberal with only a couple of Liberal seats in the Western Suburbs.

If any party is to make inroads in a non-traditional area they need to do it properly. I think the CLP could make inroads in some remote communities but the Victorian Liberals cannot win seats like St Albans. The NSW Liberals made inroads in non-traditional Sydney seats (mainly Western Sydney seats) and they did it the right way so they held some of those seats for the entire time they were in government for 12 years (2011-2023) and some they still hold today.

I think scandals are what lost them the remote Aboriginal seats were the scandals since Adam Giles as an Aboriginal man from Alice Springs may have helped the party’s performance in those seats.

On federal figures Cook in Queensland would actually be an LNP seat.

Let’s go back to the 1992 Victorian state election for example. I know it was a landslide win but the landscape isn’t too crazy (though some seats are now solid for another party, e.g Prahran for the Greens and redistribution has made a lot of seats better (or worse e.g Niddrie for the Liberals) and some seats don’t exist anymore while some have being created). Here were the results in Melbourne and Geelong:

Central Suburbs:
* Labor: Albert Park, Coburg, Melbourne, Northcote, Richmond
* Liberal: Caulfield, Hawthorn, Kew, Malvern, Prahran

Eastern Suburbs:
* Liberal: Bayswater, Bennettswood, Berwick, Box Hill, Burwood, Forest Hill, Glen Waverley, Knox, Mitcham, Monbulk, Wantirna
* Labor: Dandenong, Dandenong North, Springvale

Greater Geelong:
* Liberal: Bellarine, Geelong, South Barwon
* Labor: Geelong North

Northern Suburbs:
* Liberal: Bulleen, Doncaster, Eltham, Ivanhoe, Mooroolbark, Tullamarine, Warrandyte
* Labor: Broadmeadows, Bundoora, Mill Park, Preston, Thomastown

Southern Suburbs:
* Liberal: Bentleigh, Brighton, Frankston, Frankston East, Mordialloc, Sandringham
* Labor: Carrum, Clayton

Western Suburbs:
* Labor: Altona, Footscray, Keilor, Melton, Niddrie, Sunshine, Werribee, Williamstown
* Liberal: Essendon

@Nether Portal There are definitely some seats in N-W Melbourne where the Liberals could entrench themselves (like Melton and Yan Yean) but not many. Winning a seat like Werribee or Sydenham is likely to be a one-off.

@ NP
I agree Prahran is now more difficult for the Libs and Niddrie better for Libs. A few other points compared to 1992
1. Essendon has had redistributions making it more left wing same with Oakleigh
2. The old Tullamarine is the closest to the current Sunbury
3. Melton is more winnable these days due to infrastructure issues and population growth
4. The Old Keilor had better boundaries for the Libs than the current Sydenham
5. Carrum is much wealthier today than in 1992

In NSW the seats that Libs held on to after 2015 in Western Sydney such as Penrith, Riverstone, Mulgoa/Badgerys Creek, Winston Hills/Seven Hills are better demographically than Mount Druitt, Campebelltown etc. They lost seats like Campbelltowm, Granville and Prospect after one term. In hindsight, NSW Libs probably regret losing Strathfield, Gosford and The Entrance in 2015 and not the other seats.

Also i agree about Yan Yean with Scart as well.

@Nimalan I wouldn’t say they regret not losing seats like Penrith, but they definitely didn’t want to lose seats like Gosford, Strathfield and The Entrance. In NSW both Western Sydney and the Central Coast are key areas for both major parties.

It’s interesting that Essendon is now more Labor-friendly but Niddrie (which covers half of Essendon) is while still a Labor seat more Liberal-friendly.

@ NP
Sorry i did not mean the Liberal party does not regret losing Penrith in 2023 and they will need it back to form government. What i meant the Liberals probably dont regret losing seats like Campbelltown, Granville, Prospect (Smithfield) or even Blue Mountains those seats are probably a once off and not seats that Libs can entrench themselves. So i am referring to the 2015 loses.
Essendon and Nidderie have different boundaries to 1992 so that explains the difference rather than demographic changes.

@Nimalan yeah I agree that they probably don’t really care about losing those seats. They probably do regret losing all of their Newcastle seats too since they could’ve held onto at least one (probably Charlestown or Swansea) and Port Stephens.

@ NP
Thats why it is important to win seats that can be held longer term and also fits with your heartland. Labor probably did not care about losing Nepean or Hawthorn in 2022 but probably wished they lost Hawthorn to the Teals. Regarding Newcastle seats i would say Port Stephens and Maitland is more important than Swansea or Charlestown. Swannsea (Shortland) is more marginal at a federal level due to the climate wars which is not an issue at a state level. Next time NSW Libs are in government they need to focus more on the Central coast and Strathfield.

In 2012, although the CLP won, their gains were mostly outside metro Darwin and Darwin largely stayed with Labor.

But in 2024, it was the ALP who were wiped out in Darwin – not quite. The Seat of Nightcliff is likely to be retained by Labor. But perhaps the most significant factor of the result is that the CLP won the seat of Fannie Bay, which was won by Clare Martin and retained by Michael Gunner until he resigned in 2022.

The CLP now have 17 seats in the new Parliament, Labor possibly 5 and 3 independents.

@ AM
This time the remote areas stayed with Labor.

@Nimalan except Barkly and Namatjira, the former of which includes the towns of Tennant Creek and Borroloola and the latter of which includes the outskirts of Alice Springs.