11:24 – I’m gonna end the live blog here. I’ll be back in the morning with another blog post.
11:20 – The addition of some pre-poll votes in Casuarina has pushed the CLP into the lead. I suspect they will stay there. And the addition of extra votes in Fong Lim has locked that seat in for the CLP. That’s 15 CLP seats, and Casuarina would be a sixteenth.
10:55 – It’s not clear to me if we will get any more results tonight, although Blain did publish an update just before. I’ll keep tracking the results for a bit longer, and plan a blog post for tomorrow.
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9:58 – So in terms of the seats still in doubt:
Fannie Bay, Johnston and Nightcliff are both complicated preference counts. In Fannie Bay, it’s a question of whether Labor or Greens comes second. In Nightcliff it’s more complicated, with an independent’s preferences potentially pushing the Greens into the top two and then we’ll need to know how CLP preferences split between Labor and Greens. In Johnston, the CLP and the independent are tied, with Labor just behind.
Casuarina is very close, with Labor narrowly ahead and with quite a lot of votes left to count. Fong Lim is also lacking any pre-poll counts, and the ABC has that seat as a likely CLP gain, but it’s too early to say.
So I suspect the latter two will be resolved in the next day or so as more votes are counted, but the first three may not be entirely resolved until all votes are counted and preferences can be distributed.
9:47 – Port Darwin was quite late in recording votes but now it looks like a clear CLP win. Blain and Sanderson also look close but reasonably clear.
9:21 – Right now I have Labor winning four seats (Arafura, Arnhem, Daly, Gwoja) and ahead in Casuarina and Nightcliff. I have the CLP retaining their seven seats, gaining Drysdale, Goyder, Karama and Wanguri, and ahead in Blain, Fong Lim, Port Darwin and Sanderson. That would give them 15 seats.
I have Araluen as an independent hold, independents leading in Johnston and Mulka, and the Greens leading in Fannie Bay.
If Labor was to be reduced to six seats, this would be their worst result since 1987. But the CLP wouldn’t be winning an unprecedented majority, because of the relatively large crossbench.
9:02 – We have a lot of votes yet to be counted, but it’s interesting to compare this election to 2012, which is the only other election won by the CLP in the 21st century. Right now I have the CLP leading in 16 seats, the same number they won in 2012. The primary vote is slightly lower, 49% compared to 50.6%, but it’s climbing.
The big difference is with a larger crossbench and a smaller opposition. I have two incumbent independents winning and three Darwin-area Labor seats that could go to the Greens or independents. That compares to just one independent in 2012. Labor could end up just winning four seats while four other seats that would otherwise be with Labor in a straight two-party contest go to others.
The other difference compared to 2012 is that Labor did relatively better in Darwin than the bush in 2012, retaining six Darwin-area seats and just two seats in the outback. This time they’ve retained four outback seats (none of which overlap with those two from 2012) and are going to need to wait for more counting to claim any seats in Darwin.
8:56 – It’s worth drilling into Nightcliff. Natasha Fyles has improved her position and the ABC has called the seat but I’m not so sure.
For a start, we’ve got two pre-poll booths yet to report. Secondly, Fyles primary is still quite low. She’s on 34.1%, with the CLP on 24.7%, Greens on 20.9% and independent May on 18.2%. I suspect May’s preferences will strongly favour the Greens, but the CLP will favour Labor if it ends up as a Labor vs Greens contest.
8:51 – Fannie Bay is a close contest between Labor and Greens, with the CLP also with a chance. We only have two of three election day booths and one of four pre-poll booths, so quite a lot is left to count. The CLP is on 39.5%, the Greens are on 30.3% and Labor is on 27.8%.
At the moment, on those vote shares, it’s likely that whichever of Greens or Labor makes the top two will win. But if the CLP vote was to climb a bit they could be in a position to win regardless. If the current proportions remain steady, the Greens will probably win, but a lot of votes are yet to count.
8:48 – It appears they have abandoned the Labor-CLP 2PP count in Braitling. With all of the election day and early votes in, the CLP is on 51% and the Greens are second on 39%. So the CLP is in a winning position, but no valid preference count.
8:29 – The first booth in Port Darwin has the CLP well out in front, with almost 50% of the primary vote.
8:25 – Right now I have Labor in a solid winning position in just four seats: Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Gwoja. None of which are in an urban area. I have the ALP likely to lose to the CLP in Drysdale, Karama, Casuarina, Fong Lim and Wanguri, all in the Darwin-Palmerston area. Sanderson is close, we’ve got no data for Port Darwin, and Labor is in danger of losing Fannie Bay, Nightcliff and Johnston to independents or Greens.
8:19 – The first and only election day booth in Nightcliff is showing a very interesting race. Labor’s Natasha Fyles is leading on 32.1%, the Greens are on 24.7% and independent Mililma May is on 22.7%. Certainly could be interesting.
8:06 – The first two booths in Drysdale has the CLP candidate on a majority of the primary vote ahead of Eva Lawler, the chief minister.
8:06 – The first remote booth in Arnhem, where Labor’s Selena Uibo barely won in 2020, suggests she’s in a stronger position this time.
7:57 – There’s a huge swing to the CLP in the safe Labor seat of Wanguri, with the CLP holding a substantial lead in the first booth.
7:55 – In Casuarina, which Labor holds by a 16% margin, sitting Labor MP Lauren Moss won the first booth narrowly, but it’s close enough that the ABC projection has the CLP in front.
7:53 – Robyn Lambley is on almost 47% in the Gillen booth of Araluen, which is a big swing compared to her performance for the Territory Alliance in 2020.
7:45 – In the first booth from the very marginal Labor seat of Fong Lim, the Greens and Labor are tied on 23.3% apiece. There is a 10.7% primary vote swing to the CLP which suggests they would at least win this booth.
7:43 – The first primary booth in Blain shows the CLP on almost 50%, with the sitting ex-Labor independent Mark Turner in second place.
7:38 – With two booths reported, independent candidate Justine Davis is leading on the primary vote with 31.9%, to 28.7% for the CLP and 27.4% for the sitting Labor MP Joel Bowden. Labor is winning the 2PP but who knows if they’ll make the cut.
7:31 – You’d never expect a swing to be uniform, but it’s worth looking at the pendulum. Karama, Fannie Bay and Sanderson are all looking iffy for Labor, and they are their eighth, ninth and fourteenth most marginal seats. Only one other seat has a greater Labor margin than Sanderson.
7:26 – The Malak booth in Sanderson has the ALP on 52% primary vote, which is a 7.5% swing away. It’s also a 25.7% primary vote swing to the CLP, because there is no other candidates. So the primary vote is also the 2PP. That’s the kind of swing that would narrowly lose Labor the seat.
7:24 – The CLP is also looking very good off two booths in Karama. The ABC has the 2PP swing at 19.2%.
7:22 – We have one of the three mobile booths reporting primary votes in Arafura, and Labor are winning comfortably. In 2020 there was wide variation between the mobile teams.
We also have the first booth in from Braitling and the Greens are polling much better than Labor, but a long way behind the CLP. If the Greens continue their trend they’ll need a new 2CP count – the 2PP count for Labor in this booth is actually worse than the Greens primary vote.
The Greens have also topped the primary vote in the Parap booth for Fannie Bay.
7:11 – We also have the first booth in Namatjira and the CLP’s Bill Yan has a majority of the primary vote. A good start for them in another marginal seat, but again it’s a relatively strong area for them.
7:09 – We have the first booth in from the marginal CLP seat of Brennan and it appears to be a big swing to the CLP in Zuccoli.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Northern Territory election. I’ll be liveblogging here at the Tally Room tonight so please follow along.
BREAKING: EVA LAWLER HAS ARRIVED AT THE WARATAH FOOTBALL CLUB
Eva Lawler has arrived at Labor’s function at the Waratah Football Club, an AFL club in Darwin.
Looks like Labor is holding onto the bush seats. That’s what I meant.
It will be interesting to see the overlapping federal results
@Damian they aren’t winning any remote seats either though. The bush remains the same.
BREAKING: Sanderson, CLP gain
Labor holds Daly. Swing away from the by election but a swing from 2020.
Some pretty extraordinary results in #ntvotes.
CLP has won the previously very safe Labor seat of Wanguri with a projected 27.7% swing.
Chief Minister Eva Lawler emphatically defeated in her own seat of Drysdale, with CLP winning it with a projected 22.2% swing.
Labor and the Greens neck and neck in Nightcliff.
Greens polled a staggering 37.3% in Fannie Bay to finish first on first preferences and looks certain to win the seat.
Independent Justine Davies looks certain to pick up the seat of Johnston from Labor minister Joel Bowden.
More surprises to come.
@Votante that comes as a shock.
Eva Lawler has conceded too, by the way.
On these numbers Labor would lose Solomon as well as lingiari. A liberal govt federally would be one seat closer
@John wouldn’t it be two seats closer?
@np I’ve already put lingiari in the lib gain for the next election. But if they lose Solomon it makes the numbers harder for also and easier for dutton
On the current numbers Labor could end up with 4 seats with no seats in Darwin whatsoever. So it would be clp 16 Labor 4 greens 2 ind 3.
NP, are you the guy in the white shirt at CLP headquarters?
Honestly looking like the preference flow of the independent on 2% of the vote may be a factor in the Fannie Bay result, very tight three-cornered contest.
lia finocchiaro will be the first CALD Chief Minister for NT and the first one with a non angloceltic surname. Adam Giles was indigenous but not CALD.
@Daniel T seems like an odd question. Lots of white shirts I can see. But no, and you probably won’t be able to see me.
@Nimalan it is certainly a major milestone.
It seems that there is a rejection of voting in general in the bush, not of any particular party.
I’m curious to know if anyone is on the ground at the moment.
BREAKING: Ngaree Ah Kit has lost Karama to the CLP. Justine Glover got 16.8% of the primary vote.
The vote seems static in remote areas (likely due to the drop in turnout) while in the main urban areas (Darwin, Palmerston and Alice Springs) and the rural areas (the seats of Goyder, Katherine and Nelson) the swing has been heavy to the CLP. Daly is an exception because Dheran Young is a popular and respectable MP but technically there is a swing against him from the by-election.
NP, You got the Tallyroom banner like you said you would do weeks ago? They currently have CLP headquarters on ABC
BREAKING: Goyder, CLP gain.
@Daniel T I said I’d consider it. I didn’t end up being able to get it but I’ve being telling people about the site and our coverage.
BREAKING: Lia, her husband and her two daughters have arrived at the Italian Club.
*daughter and son I should say, my mistake
I think I may have been on TV. I’ll let you guess who I am.
NP, I did see someone with a phone on a website, white background. But i was so brief I didn’t see properly.
Did you speak with Sussan Ley? I heard she is there.
Do a peace sign if the cameras come back, Very rare and an honor to be on TV.
Just curious, Were you invited to the function or was it free for members of the public?
@Daniel T I believe it was free but a mate might’ve been invited, I don’t know he just surprised me and said “Wanna come to Darwin?”. I was looking at the website at some point though.
Hopefully I can speak to Sussan Ley and the other guests, as well as Lia of course.
Lia is the first:
* Female CLP Chief Minister
* Chief Minister with a non-Anglo name (her first and last name are Italian)
And she’s the fourth female Chief Minister ever.
Gerard Maley will be the new Deputy Chief Minister.
Beautiful speech from Lia. She barely spoke about herself, she spoke about her family and her team.
@john alp will hold 2 to 3 Darwin seats
Any reason why Labor is doing well in the outback?
If crime and costs of living were the thorns in the side, a Labor would suffer huge swings. Costs of essentials are higher in the bush. Did the fracking issue save Labor?
ABC has Nightcliff as a Labor retain.
Just realized David Crisafulli is also of Italian descent. This is certainly historic.
Will you be at the LNP party in Brisbane on election night October 26th?
The CLP did better than expected. Nail in the coffin for QLD Labor. In recent times it seems Incumbent governments suffer larger defeats than the polls expect (Look at SA 2022, Federal 2022, NT 2016 (The CLP were expected to win around 4-5 seats including Katherine and Braitling)
If history is anything to go by, The Incumbent government will do worse than anticipated. I’ll also note when landslides are expected the party winning the landslide do better as well. I think this is a bandwagon effect, Since Australia has compulsory voting it doesn’t affect as much considering many people in other countries usually don’t vote if it’s a landslide (Turnout was low in UK election)
@Votante they aren’t really. Turnout is low which helps, but it seems to be that in the south and east the CLP is doing well while in the north (Arnhem Land) and west (Gwoja).
@Daniel T you only just realised that?
Anyway yes, I will be there on 26 October. Definitely a better result than expected. This is a landslide win.
I met Lia. Great chat with the next Chief Minister.
On these results both Lingiari and Solomon would go to the CLP.
Chansey Paech has not ruled out contesting the leadership.
If he wins he will be the second LGBT party leader in the Territory. Jodeen Carney was the first, she was once CLP leader and she is a lesbian.
Also, I can’t fucking believe that one of the ABC hosts wants to make this about vaccine mandates. The CLP didn’t win because of COVID vaccine mandates, that’s such a ridiculous statement. They won because of crime and an unpopular government. No “freedom parties” ran in this election, so no need to bring their views into this.
@ NP
She is also the First CLP Chief Minister to be born in NT as well and maybe first Millennial Chief Minister.
@Nimalan yep that’s true. She might be the youngest Chief Minister too but I’ll have to check that. She’s 39.
NP, I also noticed a bit of bias about that lady on the ABC coverage, out of all the coverages I have watched. Never seen a host be this political and bias. Definitely found it strange.
Also what did you speak to the chief minister-elect about? Did you wish her a happy early birthday, I heard she is turning 40 next month (They were saying this on ABC coverage)
She is also the First Chief Minister to be born after Self-Government was granted in 1978 on 1st July.
These are the worst ABC hosts I’ve ever seen on an election night.
@Daniel T yes I did wish her a happy birthday. We discussed a couple things, mostly the results. Brought up our website too.
I don’t know who the chick is who did the coverage but it’s odd to bring vaccine mandates into a post-COVID election.
Back to the Territory, Antony Green just revealed that the CLP would comfortably win both Lingiari and Solomon with 59% TPP each on these results.
Antony Green just showed the Federal overlap result. Apparently Lingiari was CLP on 2020 results, I’m surprised. Considering Territory Labor traditionally does better than their federal counterparts in overlapping areas (after 2001 that is)
@Daniel T I reckon what helps is the CLP usually do better in Alice Springs on the territory level because they’re more moderate.
Guys don’t take the bait. We know that the user is here to do rather than actual discussion of results.
Territory Labor is clearly a case of having outstayed their welcome. The fact that Lawler lost her own seat and Fannie Bay (Clare Martin and Michael Gunner’s old seat no less) is a probable Greens gain says it all. They need a complete refresh and build some actual policies. The CLP actually had policies coming into the election. Territory Labor was just the same old and it’s unappealing.
Don’t feed the trolls folks, Let’s just ignore it.
Anyway, my final thoughts of tonight is I never doubted that the CLP would at least be the largest party. I always knew if Labor were winning gov, it would be a minority with Mulka MP and a Greeen MP as Lambley would back the CLP.
The CLP must now deliver for these northern Darwin seats such as Casuarina, Wanguri, etc.
The CLP can win in 2028 without those seats by if they start losing Karama and other seats they can still win by offsetting those losses with Daly which was a surprise ALP hold.
Congratulations to the CLP. I certainly hope they can deliver and be a much better leader than the laughing stock/joke we have here in Victoria.
@Tommo9 yeah I agree especially given the Andrew Tate comment. But we can’t allow such disgusting behaviour here. Making those types of comments about women and LGBT people is not okay.
@Tommo9 the problems Labor faced were crime, the economy, the cost of living, housing, debt and a flatlining population. The CLP had clear plans and policies for fixing these issues, whereas Labor didn’t. I think the biggest shock is the swing in the Northern Suburbs. I would’ve never picked seats like Casuarina and Sanderson to fall this time. Justine Glover under performed in Karama which is now a CLP seat but the other Justine is likely going to beat Joel Bowden, a high-profile Labor MP for Johnston who’s held the seat since he won it at a by-election in 2020. I would’ve thought Joel Bowden would’ve held on given his high profile as a footy player (he played for Richmond from 1996 until 2009 and during that time played 265 games and scored 171 goals).
@Daniel T I agree about Daly it was a huge shock to me but others here picked it. I thought Arafura, Arnhem and Gwoja would’ve been closer too. I picked all the Aboriginal-majority seats to be close but Northern Darwin would remain Labor. However, what’s happened is the remote seats have had basically no swings but the biggest swings were in Darwin, Palmerston, Alice, Katherine and the rural area around Darwin and Palmerston. The low turnout was a disappointment though.
Also agree about 2028.