11:24 – I’m gonna end the live blog here. I’ll be back in the morning with another blog post.
11:20 – The addition of some pre-poll votes in Casuarina has pushed the CLP into the lead. I suspect they will stay there. And the addition of extra votes in Fong Lim has locked that seat in for the CLP. That’s 15 CLP seats, and Casuarina would be a sixteenth.
10:55 – It’s not clear to me if we will get any more results tonight, although Blain did publish an update just before. I’ll keep tracking the results for a bit longer, and plan a blog post for tomorrow.
If you’ve found tonight’s analysis useful please consider signing up to support the Tally Room via Patreon.
9:58 – So in terms of the seats still in doubt:
Fannie Bay, Johnston and Nightcliff are both complicated preference counts. In Fannie Bay, it’s a question of whether Labor or Greens comes second. In Nightcliff it’s more complicated, with an independent’s preferences potentially pushing the Greens into the top two and then we’ll need to know how CLP preferences split between Labor and Greens. In Johnston, the CLP and the independent are tied, with Labor just behind.
Casuarina is very close, with Labor narrowly ahead and with quite a lot of votes left to count. Fong Lim is also lacking any pre-poll counts, and the ABC has that seat as a likely CLP gain, but it’s too early to say.
So I suspect the latter two will be resolved in the next day or so as more votes are counted, but the first three may not be entirely resolved until all votes are counted and preferences can be distributed.
9:47 – Port Darwin was quite late in recording votes but now it looks like a clear CLP win. Blain and Sanderson also look close but reasonably clear.
9:21 – Right now I have Labor winning four seats (Arafura, Arnhem, Daly, Gwoja) and ahead in Casuarina and Nightcliff. I have the CLP retaining their seven seats, gaining Drysdale, Goyder, Karama and Wanguri, and ahead in Blain, Fong Lim, Port Darwin and Sanderson. That would give them 15 seats.
I have Araluen as an independent hold, independents leading in Johnston and Mulka, and the Greens leading in Fannie Bay.
If Labor was to be reduced to six seats, this would be their worst result since 1987. But the CLP wouldn’t be winning an unprecedented majority, because of the relatively large crossbench.
9:02 – We have a lot of votes yet to be counted, but it’s interesting to compare this election to 2012, which is the only other election won by the CLP in the 21st century. Right now I have the CLP leading in 16 seats, the same number they won in 2012. The primary vote is slightly lower, 49% compared to 50.6%, but it’s climbing.
The big difference is with a larger crossbench and a smaller opposition. I have two incumbent independents winning and three Darwin-area Labor seats that could go to the Greens or independents. That compares to just one independent in 2012. Labor could end up just winning four seats while four other seats that would otherwise be with Labor in a straight two-party contest go to others.
The other difference compared to 2012 is that Labor did relatively better in Darwin than the bush in 2012, retaining six Darwin-area seats and just two seats in the outback. This time they’ve retained four outback seats (none of which overlap with those two from 2012) and are going to need to wait for more counting to claim any seats in Darwin.
8:56 – It’s worth drilling into Nightcliff. Natasha Fyles has improved her position and the ABC has called the seat but I’m not so sure.
For a start, we’ve got two pre-poll booths yet to report. Secondly, Fyles primary is still quite low. She’s on 34.1%, with the CLP on 24.7%, Greens on 20.9% and independent May on 18.2%. I suspect May’s preferences will strongly favour the Greens, but the CLP will favour Labor if it ends up as a Labor vs Greens contest.
8:51 – Fannie Bay is a close contest between Labor and Greens, with the CLP also with a chance. We only have two of three election day booths and one of four pre-poll booths, so quite a lot is left to count. The CLP is on 39.5%, the Greens are on 30.3% and Labor is on 27.8%.
At the moment, on those vote shares, it’s likely that whichever of Greens or Labor makes the top two will win. But if the CLP vote was to climb a bit they could be in a position to win regardless. If the current proportions remain steady, the Greens will probably win, but a lot of votes are yet to count.
8:48 – It appears they have abandoned the Labor-CLP 2PP count in Braitling. With all of the election day and early votes in, the CLP is on 51% and the Greens are second on 39%. So the CLP is in a winning position, but no valid preference count.
8:29 – The first booth in Port Darwin has the CLP well out in front, with almost 50% of the primary vote.
8:25 – Right now I have Labor in a solid winning position in just four seats: Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Gwoja. None of which are in an urban area. I have the ALP likely to lose to the CLP in Drysdale, Karama, Casuarina, Fong Lim and Wanguri, all in the Darwin-Palmerston area. Sanderson is close, we’ve got no data for Port Darwin, and Labor is in danger of losing Fannie Bay, Nightcliff and Johnston to independents or Greens.
8:19 – The first and only election day booth in Nightcliff is showing a very interesting race. Labor’s Natasha Fyles is leading on 32.1%, the Greens are on 24.7% and independent Mililma May is on 22.7%. Certainly could be interesting.
8:06 – The first two booths in Drysdale has the CLP candidate on a majority of the primary vote ahead of Eva Lawler, the chief minister.
8:06 – The first remote booth in Arnhem, where Labor’s Selena Uibo barely won in 2020, suggests she’s in a stronger position this time.
7:57 – There’s a huge swing to the CLP in the safe Labor seat of Wanguri, with the CLP holding a substantial lead in the first booth.
7:55 – In Casuarina, which Labor holds by a 16% margin, sitting Labor MP Lauren Moss won the first booth narrowly, but it’s close enough that the ABC projection has the CLP in front.
7:53 – Robyn Lambley is on almost 47% in the Gillen booth of Araluen, which is a big swing compared to her performance for the Territory Alliance in 2020.
7:45 – In the first booth from the very marginal Labor seat of Fong Lim, the Greens and Labor are tied on 23.3% apiece. There is a 10.7% primary vote swing to the CLP which suggests they would at least win this booth.
7:43 – The first primary booth in Blain shows the CLP on almost 50%, with the sitting ex-Labor independent Mark Turner in second place.
7:38 – With two booths reported, independent candidate Justine Davis is leading on the primary vote with 31.9%, to 28.7% for the CLP and 27.4% for the sitting Labor MP Joel Bowden. Labor is winning the 2PP but who knows if they’ll make the cut.
7:31 – You’d never expect a swing to be uniform, but it’s worth looking at the pendulum. Karama, Fannie Bay and Sanderson are all looking iffy for Labor, and they are their eighth, ninth and fourteenth most marginal seats. Only one other seat has a greater Labor margin than Sanderson.
7:26 – The Malak booth in Sanderson has the ALP on 52% primary vote, which is a 7.5% swing away. It’s also a 25.7% primary vote swing to the CLP, because there is no other candidates. So the primary vote is also the 2PP. That’s the kind of swing that would narrowly lose Labor the seat.
7:24 – The CLP is also looking very good off two booths in Karama. The ABC has the 2PP swing at 19.2%.
7:22 – We have one of the three mobile booths reporting primary votes in Arafura, and Labor are winning comfortably. In 2020 there was wide variation between the mobile teams.
We also have the first booth in from Braitling and the Greens are polling much better than Labor, but a long way behind the CLP. If the Greens continue their trend they’ll need a new 2CP count – the 2PP count for Labor in this booth is actually worse than the Greens primary vote.
The Greens have also topped the primary vote in the Parap booth for Fannie Bay.
7:11 – We also have the first booth in Namatjira and the CLP’s Bill Yan has a majority of the primary vote. A good start for them in another marginal seat, but again it’s a relatively strong area for them.
7:09 – We have the first booth in from the marginal CLP seat of Brennan and it appears to be a big swing to the CLP in Zuccoli.
6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Northern Territory election. I’ll be liveblogging here at the Tally Room tonight so please follow along.
Thanks Ben. It’s 6:05pm here in Darwin. Results should come in around 6:30pm ACST.
The CLP function is at the Darwin Italian Club in Marrara in the mid-northwest of Darwin. Lia Finocchiaro is Italian but it seems both odd and significant for the function to be in a suburb that is split between the Labor seats of Karama and Sanderson.
Still no results.
Gerard Maley is predicting that Goyder will be won by the CLP on first preferences. He says the local candidate, a local candidate from the rural seat, is an excellent and relatable candidate.
Final prediction is CLP landslide majority, I’d be extremely surprised if Labor pulled off a fourth term.
Probably agree NP, Gerard Maley himself won over 50% primary vote in his first contest for Nelson despite being opposed by a strong independent candidate (Beverly Ratahi) who ran with the support/endorsement of the retiring MP Gerry Wood.
Sorry third term
@Yoh A very good point about Nelson.
Anyway, breaking news:
BREAKING: TURNOUT DOWN TO C. 65%
This could be one of the lowest turnouts ever, but early figures show only 65% of Territorians actually voted.
Could the lower turnout be an artefact, at least partially, of increased voter registration?
@Indricothere not sure but it’s taking very long to even get results.
Yes everyone got registered to vote in the referendum but none can be bothered voting in an election
First figures:
Brennan: 66.3% CLP TPP
Gwoja: 64.4% ALP TPP
Namatjira: 68.4% CLP TPP
Spillett: 77.0% CLP TPP
These are early figures and small polling booths, but there are massive swings (double digits) in Brennan, Namatjira and Spillett.
Spillett has 6.4% counted, more than any other seat. I usually call seats when at least 10% is counted in an electorate, with exceptions when the result is obvious after a couple booths have massive swings (e.g the Northern Tablelands by-election earlier this year I called that for the Nationals after like two minutes).
More results have come through, and they are terrible for Labor.
Arafura: 58.2% ALP TPP
Braitling: 63.8% CLP TPP
Fannie Bay: 58.1% GRN v CLP TCP
Karama: 60.9% CLP TPP
Katherine: 56.3% CLP v IND TCP
Nelson: 79.6% CLP TPP
Sanderson: 51.4% CLP TPP
In Fannie Bay the Labor vote is swapping to the Greens.
Early counting has the greens in the 2pp in fannie Bay and a large swing Sanderson putting clp ahead
@NP, responding to previous thread. If the CLP win this election and make unpopular decisions like the CLP gov 2012-2016 did. (federal seat of Solomon actually swung to Labor in 2013 because of the unpopular gov) then they may fail to gain Lingiari at the fed election.
If Lia and the CLP are popular then Lingiari could be gained for the CLP. if Labor squeak a minority then Solomon will be at risk at the next federal election.
But do not understate indigenous MP’s especially their ability to turn out the remote communities which don’t always come out and vote. So defeating the Lingiari MP will be harder than say defeating the incumbents in Gilmore and Lyons.
Just saw the latest figures. Bring on the landslide. I love landslides whichever way they are.
Appears change of govt on
Early figures
@Daniel T I agree.
What we’re seeing is both the CLP and the Greens outpolling Labor in Braitling and Fannie Bay.
It’s looking extremely likely that the CLP will win.
Karama is probably going to fall.
NP, Do you think Sanderson will fall even on later counting?
I’m ready to call it. CLP have won the 2024 NT election.
Greens look to be firmly in the 2CP for Braitling and a chance to win Fannie Bay.
This is looking terrible for Labor. Barkly, Blain, Casuarina, Daly, Fong Lim, Goyder and Sanderson are looking very good for the CLP, as they still are in the other seats I mentioned earlier.
Antony called election.
I’m calling Katherine and Spillett for the CLP.
@Daniel T potentially yes.
@Wilson I must concede I did really underestimate the Greens at this election. But it does look like they’ll make the TCP in Braitling for the second time in history (the first was in 2008) and they could win Fannie Bay.
BREAKING: ELECTION CALLED
I have called the election for the CLP.
BREAKING: WANGURI, CLP GAIN
A +25.4% to the CLP in Wanguri has led to them gaining the seat from Labor. Wanguri is in the Northern Suburbs of Darwin.
Interesting news. Clp are neck and neck in mulka. Lambley is well in front in araluen
This has been a devastating loss for Labor and I’m sure they’ll be nervous about ACT & QLD.
2 seats of interest Drysdale and night-life still have no count
@spacefish yea they’re not gona lose the act election. Not to the libs anyway
There was a general expectation that Labor would lose NT and QLD so not a shock that it’s happening in NT. ACT Labor will hold.
An independent may pick up Johnston, if not Labor. Three way race there.
Drysdale called for CLP on computer. Eva Lawler losses her seat (although it is early)
BREAKING: EVA LAWLER LOSES SEAT
Eva Lawler has become the third NT Chief Minister to lose their seat and the first of those three to come from the Labor Party.
NP, Check Nightcliff, Fyles trails the Greens.
@spacefish yea they’re not gona lose the act election. Not to the libs anyway. Np it looks like Natasha files is in a close contest with the greens in her own seat too in nightcliff
@Daniel t that nightcliffe result is really shocking. I doubt Kat will get it but it is incredible either way.
@darcy I’d say if files retires after the election it would be a certain greens gain. The only thing saving files atm is her personal vote and clp preferences
Nightcliff is one to watch. In order of primary votes, ALP, Greens, IND, CLP. The Greens are ahead on 2PP according to ABC.
Ooh I just looked at Nightcliff… the Greens are very narrowly ahead of Labor.
@john I agree. If she holds it tonight, it won’t be Labor after she retires.
The greens swing is not as large as other target seats. The tealish independent is largely responsible.
Nightcliff, depends on CLP and independent references. Doubt CLP preferences the Greens. The gap between the Greens and the IND isn’t that big.
In Nightcliff you’d expect CLP preferences to put the Ind over the Green pretty comfortably, then who knows what happens from there.
BREAKING: CLP WINS MAJORITY
Antony Green has called 14 seats for the CLP, five for Labor and one for others.
Still very early but it doesn’t look like Labor’s losing its bush seats. Labor Senator McCarthy was optimistic about it.
The Green strength in Darwin might be driven by the fracking issue.
@Votante Actually Labor are holding their Bush Seats. They are losing in Darwin and Palmerston.
Sorry just saw yes holding bush seats. Discount my previous post Sorry.
Comments are closed.