NT election night live

11:24 – I’m gonna end the live blog here. I’ll be back in the morning with another blog post.

11:20 – The addition of some pre-poll votes in Casuarina has pushed the CLP into the lead. I suspect they will stay there. And the addition of extra votes in Fong Lim has locked that seat in for the CLP. That’s 15 CLP seats, and Casuarina would be a sixteenth.

10:55 – It’s not clear to me if we will get any more results tonight, although Blain did publish an update just before. I’ll keep tracking the results for a bit longer, and plan a blog post for tomorrow.

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9:58 – So in terms of the seats still in doubt:

Fannie Bay, Johnston and Nightcliff are both complicated preference counts. In Fannie Bay, it’s a question of whether Labor or Greens comes second. In Nightcliff it’s more complicated, with an independent’s preferences potentially pushing the Greens into the top two and then we’ll need to know how CLP preferences split between Labor and Greens. In Johnston, the CLP and the independent are tied, with Labor just behind.

Casuarina is very close, with Labor narrowly ahead and with quite a lot of votes left to count. Fong Lim is also lacking any pre-poll counts, and the ABC has that seat as a likely CLP gain, but it’s too early to say.

So I suspect the latter two will be resolved in the next day or so as more votes are counted, but the first three may not be entirely resolved until all votes are counted and preferences can be distributed.

9:47 – Port Darwin was quite late in recording votes but now it looks like a clear CLP win. Blain and Sanderson also look close but reasonably clear.

9:21 – Right now I have Labor winning four seats (Arafura, Arnhem, Daly, Gwoja) and ahead in Casuarina and Nightcliff. I have the CLP retaining their seven seats, gaining Drysdale, Goyder, Karama and Wanguri, and ahead in Blain, Fong Lim, Port Darwin and Sanderson. That would give them 15 seats.

I have Araluen as an independent hold, independents leading in Johnston and Mulka, and the Greens leading in Fannie Bay.

If Labor was to be reduced to six seats, this would be their worst result since 1987. But the CLP wouldn’t be winning an unprecedented majority, because of the relatively large crossbench.

9:02 – We have a lot of votes yet to be counted, but it’s interesting to compare this election to 2012, which is the only other election won by the CLP in the 21st century. Right now I have the CLP leading in 16 seats, the same number they won in 2012. The primary vote is slightly lower, 49% compared to 50.6%, but it’s climbing.

The big difference is with a larger crossbench and a smaller opposition. I have two incumbent independents winning and three Darwin-area Labor seats that could go to the Greens or independents. That compares to just one independent in 2012. Labor could end up just winning four seats while four other seats that would otherwise be with Labor in a straight two-party contest go to others.

The other difference compared to 2012 is that Labor did relatively better in Darwin than the bush in 2012, retaining six Darwin-area seats and just two seats in the outback. This time they’ve retained four outback seats (none of which overlap with those two from 2012) and are going to need to wait for more counting to claim any seats in Darwin.

8:56 – It’s worth drilling into Nightcliff. Natasha Fyles has improved her position and the ABC has called the seat but I’m not so sure.

For a start, we’ve got two pre-poll booths yet to report. Secondly, Fyles primary is still quite low. She’s on 34.1%, with the CLP on 24.7%, Greens on 20.9% and independent May on 18.2%. I suspect May’s preferences will strongly favour the Greens, but the CLP will favour Labor if it ends up as a Labor vs Greens contest.

8:51 – Fannie Bay is a close contest between Labor and Greens, with the CLP also with a chance. We only have two of three election day booths and one of four pre-poll booths, so quite a lot is left to count. The CLP is on 39.5%, the Greens are on 30.3% and Labor is on 27.8%.

At the moment, on those vote shares, it’s likely that whichever of Greens or Labor makes the top two will win. But if the CLP vote was to climb a bit they could be in a position to win regardless. If the current proportions remain steady, the Greens will probably win, but a lot of votes are yet to count.

8:48 – It appears they have abandoned the Labor-CLP 2PP count in Braitling. With all of the election day and early votes in, the CLP is on 51% and the Greens are second on 39%. So the CLP is in a winning position, but no valid preference count.

8:29 – The first booth in Port Darwin has the CLP well out in front, with almost 50% of the primary vote.

8:25 – Right now I have Labor in a solid winning position in just four seats: Arafura, Arnhem, Daly and Gwoja. None of which are in an urban area. I have the ALP likely to lose to the CLP in Drysdale, Karama, Casuarina, Fong Lim and Wanguri, all in the Darwin-Palmerston area. Sanderson is close, we’ve got no data for Port Darwin, and Labor is in danger of losing Fannie Bay, Nightcliff and Johnston to independents or Greens.

8:19 – The first and only election day booth in Nightcliff is showing a very interesting race. Labor’s Natasha Fyles is leading on 32.1%, the Greens are on 24.7% and independent Mililma May is on 22.7%. Certainly could be interesting.

8:06 – The first two booths in Drysdale has the CLP candidate on a majority of the primary vote ahead of Eva Lawler, the chief minister.

8:06 – The first remote booth in Arnhem, where Labor’s Selena Uibo barely won in 2020, suggests she’s in a stronger position this time.

7:57 – There’s a huge swing to the CLP in the safe Labor seat of Wanguri, with the CLP holding a substantial lead in the first booth.

7:55 – In Casuarina, which Labor holds by a 16% margin, sitting Labor MP Lauren Moss won the first booth narrowly, but it’s close enough that the ABC projection has the CLP in front.

7:53 – Robyn Lambley is on almost 47% in the Gillen booth of Araluen, which is a big swing compared to her performance for the Territory Alliance in 2020.

7:45 – In the first booth from the very marginal Labor seat of Fong Lim, the Greens and Labor are tied on 23.3% apiece. There is a 10.7% primary vote swing to the CLP which suggests they would at least win this booth.

7:43 – The first primary booth in Blain shows the CLP on almost 50%, with the sitting ex-Labor independent Mark Turner in second place.

7:38 – With two booths reported, independent candidate Justine Davis is leading on the primary vote with 31.9%, to 28.7% for the CLP and 27.4% for the sitting Labor MP Joel Bowden. Labor is winning the 2PP but who knows if they’ll make the cut.

7:31 – You’d never expect a swing to be uniform, but it’s worth looking at the pendulum. Karama, Fannie Bay and Sanderson are all looking iffy for Labor, and they are their eighth, ninth and fourteenth most marginal seats. Only one other seat has a greater Labor margin than Sanderson.

7:26 – The Malak booth in Sanderson has the ALP on 52% primary vote, which is a 7.5% swing away. It’s also a 25.7% primary vote swing to the CLP, because there is no other candidates. So the primary vote is also the 2PP. That’s the kind of swing that would narrowly lose Labor the seat.

7:24 – The CLP is also looking very good off two booths in Karama. The ABC has the 2PP swing at 19.2%.

7:22 – We have one of the three mobile booths reporting primary votes in Arafura, and Labor are winning comfortably. In 2020 there was wide variation between the mobile teams.

We also have the first booth in from Braitling and the Greens are polling much better than Labor, but a long way behind the CLP. If the Greens continue their trend they’ll need a new 2CP count – the 2PP count for Labor in this booth is actually worse than the Greens primary vote.

The Greens have also topped the primary vote in the Parap booth for Fannie Bay.

7:11 – We also have the first booth in Namatjira and the CLP’s Bill Yan has a majority of the primary vote. A good start for them in another marginal seat, but again it’s a relatively strong area for them.

7:09 – We have the first booth in from the marginal CLP seat of Brennan and it appears to be a big swing to the CLP in Zuccoli.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Northern Territory election. I’ll be liveblogging here at the Tally Room tonight so please follow along.

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