NT election day open thread

Polling is now open across the Territory.

It’s a nice 27°C here in Darwin today. You’ll only need a jumper in the morning up here!

It’s 9:19am here in the Territory. Polls close at 6:00pm tonight.

I think the most likely result of the NT election is a CLP minority government.

Apart from retaining all its existing seats, the CLP should easily gain Blain, Port Darwin and Fong Lim from Labor. The CLP should also win Daly from Labor. Labor’s victory in the 2021 Daly by-election was due to higher turnout for mobile polling and lower turnout in urban areas closer to Darwin, an anomaly which should correct at the 2024 general election.

This will give the CLP 11 seats. To win 13 seats and form majority government, the CLP will need to win 2 of the 3 seats of Drysdale, Goyder and Araluen. All are challenging for the CLP to win.

Drysdale is held by the Chief Minister Eva Lawler. The fact that Eva Lawler is the first Labor MLA to win a second term in a Palmerston seat suggests she has a strong personal vote, which should be amplified by her elevation to the top job. Independent Belinda Kolstad is backed by the retiring MP Kezia Purick and has a strong chance of succeeding her and keep Goyder independent. As @oguh and many others have pointed out in the other thread, Lambley should retain Araluen.

If the CLP wins none of the three seats mentioned above, it could still form a minority government with the support of independents Belinda Kolstad in Goyder and Robyn Lambley in Araluen, both of whom are former CLP members. There’s a strong chance that there will be no clear winner tonight because both major parties have won 11 seats, and no party will concede defeat tonight.

Time polls close:

AWST: 4:30pm
ACST: 6:00pm
AEST: 6:30pm
NZST: 8:30pm

Results should come in by:

AWST: 5:00pm
ACST: 6:30pm
AEST: 7:00pm
NZST: 9:00pm

@Joseph I don’t think Goyder will be that challenging to be honest.

*To be precise, the CLP is not going to win Blain from *Labor*, but rather from Labor-turned-independent MP Mark Turner. I predict that Turner will finish third.

Polls close in 20 minutes!

Is this the first election in Australia where both major party leaders have represented seats outside the capital leaders?

I’ll be at the CLP event tonight.

BREAKING: REMOTE TURNOUT DOWN

Antony Green has revealed a surprise that we didn’t expect. Remote turnout is down in Barkly (down from 53% to 41%) and Namatjira (down from 40% to 32%).

Donation results:

* CLP: $1.32 million
* Labor: $852,000
* Greens: $277,000

Ray Bail Investments Pty Ltd donated $199,000 to the CLP, making it the CLP’s largest private donor. Meanwhile, Territory Labor’s largest private donor is Tamboran Resources, which has a stake in the Bettaloo Basin gas field. Tamboran Resources donated $78,000 to Territory Labor and $60,000 to the CLP.

Ray Bail Investments is a construction company in Darwin.

@Nether Portal I imagine there’s been quite a lot of them before this one but Queensland 1980 comes to mind off the top of my head.

POLLS HAVE CLOSED! COUNTING WILL BEGIN NOW!

WOOOO!

@Laine oh yeah true. Have there been any where both leaders represented seats in the same city but that city was outside the capital?

If Labor retain Gov, Lingiari will be lost for sure at the next election, If voters don’t deliver baseball bats in the NT election they will against Albo

@Daniel T what about if the CLP win? Could they win both Lingiari and Solomon or just Lingiari?

My prediction is CLP 50.5 on the 2PP. I think Labor could still end up with a plurality of seats and it will come down to the independents to decide on the gov.

I personally see this as a bit of a taste of what is to come in Queensland come October. Hugely different electorates of course, but we can get a taste of how much the swing is on.

@The Banana Republic except the CLP are only predicted to get a minority or a small majority in the Territory, in Queensland the LNP are predicted to win in a landslide.

@Nether Portal Oh I know, as a Brisbane resident the swing is going to be on hard here. Miles should give himself a pat on the back if he manages to keep the 2PP under 55 LNP.

Lingiari will be lost for sure Solomon I doubt it this time around but maybe in 2028. Depends on if the redistribution is finalised before the election

According to the NTEC:
– 2PP Namatjira: 68% CLP 32% ALP
– PV Brennan: 74% CLP 26% ALP
(Small polling places, unknown location, but still very significant)

@banana miles will be lucky to hold his own seat

If there are only 2 candidates, whats the point of numbering the ballots? a tick would be a valid vote under normal circumstances because they don’t count preferences with only 2 candidates.

Updates:
– CLP running a surprisingly close race in Sanderson.
– Greens are leading in Fannie Bay, Parap booth.
– Greens second in Braitling.
– Labor big swing in Arafura, smaller margin than by-election result.
– CLP is leading easily in Karama, Labor collapses by 22%
– Nelson looks very safe for CLP.
– Lia Finocchiaro looks also very safe in Spillett.