Assessing the political impact of the missing Liberals

I have been spending the last day updating my council election guides to include the full list of candidates, a summary of who is running and an assessment of the likely outcomes. I have now finished this for all of the councils where Liberals failed to nominate, and I’ll do the rest tonight.

For this post I have included summaries of how the missing Liberals have changed the contest in each council. In some councils there is a small impact. In others it is a political earthquake.

I have also analysed the impact in the five other affected councils for which I have not prepared full profiles. I am not so familiar with the details of these councils so please let me know if I’ve missed something.

Right here I’ll list all of the councils and which category they fit in, and you can read my full assessment below the fold.

Minimal impact on council’s direction:

• Canterbury-Bankstown
• Central Coast
• Hornsby
• Newcastle
• North Sydney

Benefit other conservatives

• Mid-Coast
• Shoalhaven

Labor one-party majority:

• Blue Mountains
• Campbelltown
• Penrith
• Wollongong
• Cessnock

Progressive majority:

• Camden
• Lane Cove
• Northern Beaches

Liberals reduced to third party status:

• Georges River
• Maitland

Camden – likely Labor/independent progressive majority

The Liberals have only managed to nominate a ticket in their least favourable ward and will probably end up with just one seat, down from four out of nine on the old council. It’s hard to see Labor gaining any more than the three seats they currently hold, and they are also hindered by failing to nominate a full ticket in the North Ward, where the only other tickets are a low-profile independent and the Libertarian Party.

But it seems likely that progressive independents Cindy Cagney and Eva Campbell will be re-elected in the South Ward, producing a progressive majority.

Campbelltown – likely Labor majority

Labor won seven out of fifteen seats in this undivided council in 2016 and 2021. I find it hard to see them not getting enough of a boost to win a clear majority in the absence of the Liberal Party.

Also worth noting that there are six other independent/minor party tickets with an above the line box who will all be in a stronger position. In particular the Greens narrowly lost to Animal Justice for the final seat in 2021, but this year AJP has also had a nomination failure, and will need voters to number at least eight boxes below the line to support their candidates, while the other parties will need just a ‘1’ above the line.

Canterbury-Bankstown – Labor majority, possibly slightly larger

Labor already holds nine seats here. I can see them possibly picking up a tenth seat, but that’s about it.

There are two wards where the Liberal Party is completely absent, and a third where they only ran two candidates. In the third ward, Roselands, they could still retain their seat, but are up against eight other groups that managed to nominate a full ticket of three candidates.

There are quite a few different minor parties and independents running in each ward so it’s hard to pick who might fill the vacuum caused by the Liberal Party’s nomination problems. Possible options could include the Libertarian Party, Unity, Community Voice or the Greens.

Central Coast – minimal change, likely to have independents in balance of power

The Liberal nomination error has had a relatively minor impact here, compared to other councils. The party has successfully nominated a full ticket in three wards, and nominated two of three candidates in Gosford East. It appears the party deliberately withdrew from Budgewoi to give space to independent Doug Eaton.

The nomination error was in the Liberal Party’s best ward, Gosford East. This should help them ensure they can still win a seat in that ward, with only two groups with an above-the-line box. It seems likely that Labor and Liberal will each win one seat in each ward they contest, with the other seats going to independents or minor parties, thus leaving no party with an overall majority. And this result likely would have been the same without the Liberal Party’s nomination problem.

Georges River – Labor and GRRRP as main two parties, with Liberals in third

Georges River split almost perfectly three ways in 2021 – Labor and Liberal each won five seats, with local party Georges River Residents and Ratepayers Party (GRRRP) winning four seats, along with one independent.

There are two wards where the Liberal Party failed to nominate. In both wards, Labor and GRRRP are the only groups with an above the line box. This means the two parties are the only contenders to pick up the two abandoned Liberal seats.

Labor has a higher primary vote than GRRRP, although GRRRP now has incumbent councillors after first running in 2021. These seats will ultimately be decided by which way those Liberal voters in those wards decide to move.

Whatever happens, Labor and GRRRP will be the largest parties with a smaller Liberal rump in the middle.

Hornsby – disadvantages a Liberal Party on back foot, likely loss of Liberal majority

The nomination error is a secondary issue in the Hornsby A Ward to the split in the Liberal Party, with sitting councillor Nathan Tilbury running as an independent for mayor and council with the support of outgoing Liberal mayor Philip Ruddock.

The Liberals currently hold five council seats plus the mayor for a clear 6-4 majority over Labor and the Greens. In the A Ward, the Liberal Party has only successfully nominated two candidates. This should make it a lot easier for Tilbury to retain his council seat as the only conservative with an above the line box, but the Liberals should be able to scrape together enough votes to win one seat. Another complication would be if Warren Waddell is elected mayor, and thus is disqualified from the council ballot. Normally most of his votes would have been above the line, and would flow entirely to his running mate and elect them instead. But as they are below the line, it will be important for Liberal voters to mark 1-2 for their candidates.

But ultimately the main problem for the party is the split between Tilbury and Waddell, not the nomination error.

Mid-Coast – will boost some of the independents

Mid-Coast Council only has four councillors from the Liberal, Labor and Greens parties, sitting alongside seven independents.

It appears the Liberal Party (who held two seats) failed to nominate.

It’s not clear to me who Liberal voters will move to, but there are plenty of independent options to choose from.

Newcastle – minimal impact

The main focus in Newcastle is conflict on the centre-left, with a independent ticket led by an unsuccessful Labor mayoral preselection candidate threatening Labor’s majority.

The Liberal Party failed to nominate in just one ward, where a sitting Liberal councillor quit to run as an independent earlier this year. This error simply means that councillor Katrina Wark will be easily re-elected.

Northern Beaches – clear Your Northern Beaches majority

With no Liberal candidates, their main opponents Your Northern Beaches should win a clear majority. This is clearly the biggest impact of the Liberal Party’s nomination problems.

YNB looked set to be in trouble, with the Liberal Party possibly in a position to lead the council. But with no Liberal candidates, YNB are the most conservative option in most wards.

There are three wards where YNB and Greens are the only above-the-line options. In a fourth ward, YNB and conservative independent councillor Vincent De Luca are the only options. Labor had some minor nomination issues which mean they only have an above the line box in one of their three wards.

It’s worth noting that Liberal member Mandeep Singh, who was meant to run as the #2 candidate on his party’s ticket in Pittwater, accidentally nominated as an ungrouped candidate. I expect local Liberals will flock to him in the absence of alternatives, and he can probably win.

This limited choice means YNB would likely win seven seats from just those four wards, plus another in Manly, where Labor, Greens and local independent Candy Bingham would be competing for the other two seats.

Overall this produces a council with a clear YNB majority and the Greens as the main opposition.

Penrith – clear Labor majority

The East Ward of Penrith was uncontested, with Labor electing five councillors straightaway.

They should win another 2-3 seats in the South Ward, where the Liberals didn’t run, and will win 1-2 seats in the more conventional North Ward race. That leaves Labor with 8-10 seats.

On the right-wing side of the chamber, the Liberals will be reduced to 1-2 seats possibly alongside ex-Liberal independent Glenn Gardiner.

There’s also a chance for the Libertarian Party in the South Ward, where they are one of only three groups running for five seats.

Shoalhaven – other conservative groups will benefit

This would have been the first time the Liberal Party ran officially in this relatively conservative area. In their absence there remain two right-wing groups running across the council: Team Tribe, led by ex-Liberal independent Jemma Tribe, and the Shoalhaven Independents, led by old guard conservative Patricia White.

I expect each of these groups to win one seat in each of the three wards, with Labor and Greens also winning one seat each. This will produce a four-way tie between four parties, with the two blocs tied 6-6. Thus the directly-elected mayoralty will decide the result.

It’s entirely possible Liberal councillor Paul Ell could have been the front runner for that job. But in his absence, I expect either Jemma Tribe or Patricia White to win office and take power back for the right after eight years of a Greens mayor and a Greens-Labor majority since 2021.

Wollongong – clear Labor majority

Labor was likely to gain a majority in 2024 without any Liberal issues. They hold six of twelve ward council seats as it is, and narrowly lost the mayoralty in 2021 to Gordon Bradbery, who is retiring this year.

With no Liberals standing, and with Bradbery and his ally Dom Figliomeni retiring, that leaves a lot of empty space.

I expect Labor to at least gain a seventh ward seat, and could win as many as nine depending on whether the independents in wards 1 and 2 are viable. The Greens should also win a third seat. There is a scenario where the council solely consists of Labor and Greens, but I suspect Andrew Anthony will pick up conservative votes and win in Ward 2.

Blue Mountains – clear Labor majority

Labor won six seats in the Blue Mountains in 2021, along with three Liberals, two Greens and one independent.

That independent, Daniel Myles, is an ex-Liberal and should be re-elected in Ward 3.

Otherwise, the only grouped candidates are Labor and Greens. I expect this will mean a 2-1 split in Labor’s favour in wards 1, 2 and 4. That would result in 7-8 Labor, 3-4 Greens and 1-2 for Myles.

Cessnock – likely Labor majority

Labor won five council seats plus the mayor in 2021, along with three Liberals and four independents.

Two of those four independents are running again. In every ward there are one or two independent groups who have a box above the line, so I would expect them to win at least one seat in each ward.

Labor needs to pick up just one more seat to win a majority, which should be much easier without Liberal opponents.

Lane Cove – possible progressive majority

The council split as three Labor, three Liberal, one Greens and two independents in 2021.

This time around, Labor is running everywhere, the Greens are running in two wards and there is at least one independent group in each ward. There are three independent wards in Central Ward.

I expect in West Ward the sitting mayor, Scott Bennison, will retain his seat as an independent after losing Liberal preselection.

In East Ward, I expect that Labor and independent Merri Southwood will each win a seat, but it’s not clear what will happen with the seat previously held by the Liberal Party.

In Central Ward, the independent councillor should be re-elected, and Labor should retain their seat. There are two other independent groups that could win the third seat.

The most likely outcome will probably see independents taking the Liberal seats, but Labor and Greens only need to gain one more seat to have a progressive majority.

Maitland – Labor and independents as main two groups, with Liberals in third

The current Maitland council split the council seats three ways – four Labor, four independent, four Liberal. The independent Phillip Penfold won the mayoralty, with his group also winning one seat in each ward.

Four of those five independents are running for re-election, with independent groups running in every ward. Penfold’s team is running every ward.

Labor and the Greens are also running full tickets.

The Liberal Party are running in Ward 1 and should retain that seat.

The mayoral contest will again be a Labor vs Penfold contest, and the absence of the Liberal might just mean fewer exhausted votes.

For the council, I expect Labor and Penfold independents to each win one in each ward, with the third seat going to second candidates in either of those groups, or the Greens, except in Ward 1.

This will end up producing a council with two large groups of Labor and independents, with the Liberal Party reduced to a single councillor, possibly alongside a Greens councillor on the crossbench.

North Sydney – relatively small impact

This is the first election where the Liberal Party was officially running for North Sydney council. They successfully nominated in the Cammeraygal ward, and I expect they will win there. But otherwise I expect the council will continue more as normal in their absence in St Leonards.