I wasn’t planning to do a blog post until we had the final lists of nominations and I could do all of my usual analysis, but I have been getting a lot of questions today about the scale of the Liberal candidates missing from the ballot papers.
Firstly a note of caution that this is based on the latest NSWEC nomination pages which may not be finalised. In a handful of cases it looks like other party’s candidates are not in order. So it’s possible Labor may have a small number of councils where their candidate nominations are not fully sorted out, or it might be that not all the information is final.
I have made a Google spreadsheet where I list every contest which seems to be affected. I’ve noted whether the Liberals have any candidates nominated, the number of sitting Liberal councillors, my estimate of the number of winnable Liberal seats, and the number of seats still theoretically winnable from below the line. I’d appreciate anyone looking at the table and letting me know if there’s any races I’m missing, or if any of them resolve themselves.
The key numbers right now are:
- The issue is affecting 44 contests in 17 councils
- 4 mayoral elections
- 2 undivided councils (Campbelltown and Mid-Coast)
- 38 wards
- The Liberals have nominated 6 candidates in these areas, but a full complement (to gain an above-the-line box everywhere) would’ve been 144. So that’s 138 missing candidates.
- There are 39 sitting Liberal councillors affected. This includes people who have retired or were planning to run again. It also includes 2 Liberal independents in Shoalhaven who were running as Liberals, but doesn’t include the mayor of Lane Cove who successfully nominated as an independent after losing preselection.
- There would have been 52 winnable seats. 3 of those winnable seats are still possibly winnable below the line, but it will be harder.
The councils where the Liberals are totally absent are:
- Blue Mountains
- Campbelltown
- Cessnock
- Lane Cove
- Mid-Coast
- Northern Beaches
- Shoalhaven
- Wollongong
The councils partially affected are:
- Camden
- Canterbury-Bankstown
- Central Coast
- Georges River
- Hornsby
- Maitland
- Newcastle
- North Sydney
- Penrith
Update 12:30pm – Libs have sorted out their tickets in the C ward of Hornsby, the East ward of Randwick, the Revesby ward of Canterbury-Bankstown and The Entrance and Wyong wards of Central Coast. Numbers above updated.
Update 6:00pm – I have now been informed that the Liberal Party never intended to run for the Budgewoi ward of Central Coast, so I’ve taken it off the list. The Liberals also managed to work out Ward 2 of Bayside, so that is also off the list.
Update Friday 10:00pm – I’ve made two more changes to the list – the Blue Mountains Ward 4 sitting councillor had apparently resigned before the election, so he’s been taken off the count of sitting councillors. But I’ve also realised that the Liberals ran in 2021 in Mid-Coast council but have mysteriously vanished.
Three or four of the councils they have no candidates for would’ve been winnable (Lane Cove, Northern Beaches, Shoalhaven and arguably even Maitland).
Are the Liberals running again in Port Stephens? If so it might give us an idea of how Paterson plays out in the next federal election.
There are Lib signs all over the Cessnock Council area. Hilarious.
I see no liberals in Shellharbour, Kiama, Eurobodalla or Bega.
The Liberal Party didn’t run in Shellharbour, Kiama, Eurobodalla or Bega in 2021. So unless I hear that they were planning to nominate and failed to do so, I’m going to assume they just were never going to run there. They don’t run in every council. That’s different to North Sydney or Shoalhaven where they clearly had plans to run (and succeeded in one North Sydney ward).
I am not sure you are correct about Ward A Hornsby. I know that WW will likely be mayor and that he is running as a Ward A candidate, but there was only him and one other who put their hands up to run in that ward at all and who were selected.
@Ben Raue how many independent Nationals are running? I know Peta Pinson is running for re-election as Mayor of the Port Macquarie-Hastings Council but I don’t know of any others.
I endorse Pinson for Port Macquarie. She has been a good local representative and I’ve met her before. This is despite me endorsing Leslie Williams (Liberal) for Port Macquarie at the state election.
No idea. That would be pretty hard to track and mostly I’m focused on the 26 big councils.
Oh sorry I meant they had sorted out the C ward.
Not totally absent in Maitland. Curiously Sally Halliday’s nomination was processed. Mitchell Griffin is a current Liberal councillor who has nominated as an Independent after even more curiously getting the heads up there was going to be an issue.
Just a note about Newcastle ~ it is unclear if Matt Bailey voluntarily stepped aside and the Libs agreed not to stand in ward 3. I say this without confirmation, only anecdotal heresay. The Libs are present in W1,2 & 4 just not ward 3 as the former Liberal (and incumbent) councillor Katrina Wark is running as an indie with a couple of locals in spots 2/3. It will be almosy impossible without confirmation to tell if the stuff up kept W3 out or whether there was some agreement between the former Lib and the preselected Lib.
Here’s the NSW EC site: https://elections.nsw.gov.au/elections/local-government-elections/2024-nsw-local-government-elections/candidates?area=Newcastle&contest=ward%203
Here’s the newcastle weekly article about Lib ticket: https://newcastleweekly.com.au/libs-ready-to-take-up-the-fight/
@Bob this is not true; a third candidate was lodged for Hornsby Ward A but rejected by the NSWEC (so not technically a failure to nominate, I guess, but with the same effect).
Ward 4 Blue Mountains – Brendan Christie (Lib) resigned from the party in July 2023 and from Council in August 2023 – no replacement that I know of, so there are just 2 councilors listed on the BMCC website, both Labor. I doubt he would be running this time around leaving the 3rd spot in that ward an open question.
Ward 3 – Daniel Myles is an independent running who used to be a member of the Liberal Party.
Thanks, in that case I’ll reduce the number of sitting councillors affected by one, but still included it as a winnable seat.
For what it’s worth, Blue Mountains Ward 1 Liberal Kevin Schreiber was going to retire anyway (I know you’ve accounted for both recontesting and retiring councilors in your article but worth noting alongside Christie’s status). There would have been a strong fight for his vacancy, and there still will be only now it will be between Labor and the Greens. Definitely agree that both this seat and the one in Ward 4 were winnable for the Liberals, Ward 4 is traditionally the most conservative despite the popularity of Labor Mayor Mark Greenhill obscuring this in council elections.
Oh that’s useful to know, thanks. For the 26 councils I’ve been profiling, I’ve been trying to clarify whether sitting Liberal councillors in wards where the Liberals missed out on nominating were going to run again. In a lot of places it’s hard to get a definitive record of who was going to run – the nomination list is meant to be that! But maybe I’ll try and make a definitive list of sitting councillors who missed out, so knowing that is useful.
@Ben Raue sorry if this is a bit off-topic but on the topic of local elections are you planning on covering the referendums? I heard you’re doing a blog post for the Central Coast one.
Yep definitely will give it some coverage.
Rounding out the Blue Mountains info, incumbent Ward 3 Liberal Councillor Rosa Sage was planning to recontest. Some of her corflutes are already up. The Liberals’ preselected lead candidates in the other 3 wards are not sitting councillors. I don’t know who they had planned to run down-ticket, but they didn’t have a realistic chance of more than 1 candidate elected in each ward anyway.
https://www.bluemountainsgazette.com.au/story/8703809/liberal-candidates-to-rejuvenate-blue-mountains-city-council/
*Roza Sage